Curtis Granderson to the Yankees
December 8, 2009
I know, I know. Sure it’s Football, Basketball and Hockey season but I think it has been long enough without some baseball news. It is that time of the year, the snow is falling, people are trying to find “tickle me Elmos” and of course, the blockbuster trades from the winter meetings are happening.
The World Series Champion New York Yankees just got better by adding All-Star center fielder, Curtis Granderson (pending medical records), to their already impressive lineup with a three team trade involving the Detroit Tigers and Arizona Diamondbacks. The best part of the deal, the Yanks only lost one player from their active roster last season, Phil Coke. Of course, they also had to give up promising prospects in Austin Jackson and Ian Kennedy but, if you would have told me that it would only cost Coke for Granderson, I would sign up for that every time.
The once weakest spot on the team is now one of the strongest. Granderson offers amazing range and is another left handed bat in an extremely lefty-favorable ball park (aka the home run highway, not sure if it will catch on though). However, he does have his downfalls, he struggles against left handed pitching and he doesn’t steal bases, oh wait, yes he does. So, there really isn’t a downfall. Now onto the rest of the trade.
The Diamondbacks acquired Ian Kennedy and Edwin Jackson, who was traded for the second straight time during winter meetings. Looks like he is moving again, at least this time it is some place really warm, kinda like Tampa two years ago. Not exactly sure why the Diamondbacks needed to be included in this trade, maybe they felt left out like last year, whatever.
Now onto the Tigers who declared that they weren’t going to trade anyone during the offseason. Worked out well for them didn’t it. They got Austin Jackson, Phil Coke from the Yankees and Max Scherzer and Daniel Schlereth from Arizona. While the Tigers gave up Major League talent, they received a lot of potential talent and most of all, cheap potential talent. Time will tell if the trade was a success for all who participated or which teams got ripped off (cough Tigers cough).
Stay tuned since I will attempt to cover any other blockbuster trades.
By Bobby Holt
Mr. Consistency: Adam Dunn
October 1, 2009
Am I the only one wondering whether Adam Dunn will hit 40 homers this year? Dunn hit exactly 40 homers in each of the past four seasons (2005-2008). Talk about consistency! With three games left, he currently has 38, and is entirely within reach of a fifth straight 40 dinger season.
Carlos Beltran to Return to the Mets
September 5, 2009
Mets All-Star outfielder, Carlos Beltran, will likely rejoin the team as early as Tuesday if all things go as planned in his rehab start Saturday. If his knee injury doesn’t flare up during the next four weeks and he is able to play pain free, look for Beltran to be back to his old self. Before the knee ailment, he was batting .336 with 8 HR and 40 RBI. His return is just in time for many fantasy league playoffs and you should put him into your lineup in the coming week.
Forecast for the rest of the season:
.304 avg 7 HR 20 RBI
-Bobby Holt
On The Shelf – Billy Wagner to Boston?
August 25, 2009
So folks, it’s been a little bit again, but then again, who’s keeping track, right?
The newest buzz around the MLB waiver wire is the potential deal to send Billy Wagner from the New York Mets to the Boston Red Sox. The deal hinges on three contingencies: 1) whether or not Wagner waives his no-trade clause; 2) if the Red Sox will decline his $8 million option for 2010; and 3) if the Red Sox will decline to offer him salary arbitration next season.
The Mets have until later today to either make a deal with the Red Sox including players, to not make a deal and to pull him off waivers (thus not letting him be traded at all this season), or to outright release him to Boston.
Rumors are flying around that Boston will oblige Wagner’s request to decline the $8 million option, but are hesitant to not offer him arbitration. If he were traded, he’d be a two month rental (remember how that worked with Eric Gagne guys?). Furthermore, Wagner wants to close. He is 38 years old and is 15 saves short of 400. He also wants to break John Franco’s record of 424 saves by a left handed pitcher. Selfish, yes, but at 38, he deserves to be a little bit (don’t go Brett Favre diva selfish on us, Billy, OK?). He does not want to be a set-up man to Jonathan Papelbon, who consequently, has vocalized his opposition to the potential Wagner move. A lot of “if’s,” if you ask me….
So your fantastic fantasy breakdown is: who knows what’s going to happen?!? What I can tell you is that it’s not going to effect Wagner’s fantasy value this year though, but stay tuned.
If Wagner stays in New York or goes to Boston, he’s not going to close, those are K-Rod and Papelbon’s gigs. He will more than likely be traded at some point in time during the off-season to a team in need of a full-time, quality closer. Think Florida, Tampa Bay, Baltimore, Washington, Pittsburgh (sorry Matt Capps), Toronto, Seattle, Detroit… I can keep going. The point is, Wagner will be closing next year if his surgically-repaired elbow can handle it. He’s of little to no value this year, other than a filler to keep your ERA/WHIP numbers low and to pad some stats such as HOLDS and K’s (if your league has them). If you are in keeper league, however, Wagner may be worth a late September roster addition for a sneaky source of 30-35 saves next season. Might be worth it to drop David Aardsma or Mike MacDougal this year to gain Billy Wagner next. I would….
My Thoughts on Stephen Strasburg
August 17, 2009
Although I prefer fantasy baseball to fantasy football, I am a much bigger fan of football than baseball. Reason number 587 why football is better is being played out today, August 17th, the signing deadline for major league baseball draft picks, as Stephen Strasburg (and others) play a game of million dollar chicken. Sure, coverage of the NFL draft has spiraled out of control, but I prefer a sport where the draft is more exciting than the signing deadline (the NFL signing deadline is late in the season).
That being said, today’s deadline has created a lot of excitement, and has generated an abundance of discussion regarding MLB rookie contracts in general, Scott Boras, the Washington Nationals, and, of course, Stephen Strasburg. Since everyone else has shared their thoughts on the issue, I figured one more opinion couldn’t hurt. I’ll address the principals one at a time.
Scott Boras: Perhaps you believe that your negotiating tactics are in your client’s best interest. It’s certainly possible that your tactics align with your client’s wishes. If this is the case, I’m not sure how much criticism you deserve. You represent Stephen Strasburg and no one else (well, other than number two pick Dustin Ackley and number three pick Donovan Tate); not his parents, not the veteran baseball players who will find themselves earning less than a player with 0 IP to his credit, not Washington Nationals fans, and certainly not the Washington Nationals.
On the other hand, you’ve said that you plan to bust the MLB draft salary structure, and Strasburg is the tool by which you aim to carry out this plan. You think all rookies should be able to earn a free market value, in line with players like Daisuke Matsuzaka, who did not have to enter the draft process when joining the Majors. If a bidding war would net Strasburg $50 million, then he should not have to accept a penny less. At this moment you’re probably struggling to contain your anger as you stand proud in the face of the Washington Nationals latest insulting offer of $17-20 million. Mr. Boras, I have no advice for you as you are too far gone. I do have some words for your client.
Stephen Strasburg: I have a few questions for you. First, who benefits if you bust the salary structure wide open and somehow get the Nationals to offer you $35-50 million? You certainly benefit, as that’s a lot more money than $20 million. But that’s where your benefit ends. You’re playing a reality game in which you’ve opened the case that contains $20 million and you have a choice. You can keep the $20 million or you can push on to the midnight deadline and pick from one of three remaining cases. One case contains $50 million, one contains $20.35 million, and one contains $0. The case with $0 means you bluff, the Nats pass, and you get hurt playing independent ball before next year’s draft. The case with $50 million means you bluff and the Nats bite (word of advice: this won’t happen; the game is fixed and no case contains $50 million). The case with $20.35 million means you wait until 11:59 to sign, and only after Boras is able to squeeze a few hundred thousand dollars more out of the Nats (similar to the Pedro Alvarez fiasco last year, in which Boras was willing to risk Alvarez sitting out the year because he and the Pirates were $300,000 apart on an offer of $6 million).
Mr. Strasburg, you should do one of two things. Either take the current offer, or skip the waiting period and counter with a $20.35 million (cash; no easily obtainable incentives required), which is what you’re going to end up with anyway (if you sign). As you ponder your choices, keep two things in mind: Scott Boras is not just representing you (as he should be) and you are not Curt Flood. Boras knows that the more money you get, the more money Ackley and Tate will get; the more money next year’s likely number 1 pick Bryce Harper will get; the more money every top pick will get in the future (until the league and union agree to a hard cap on draft pick salaries); and, lest I forget, the more money Scott Boras will get. Boras can take this risk for many reasons. He is already a very successful agent with plenty of money; you have not earned a dollar or thrown a pitch. Boras has less risk; you could lose $20 million, he would only lose a percentage of that. Boras has greater reward; you could gain (in fantasyland) up to $30 million, but if Boras pulls this off he’ll have reset the draft salary structure, and the percentage he earns off of every contract from his top 10 players over the next 10 years will double or triple. You’re risking a lot of money in hopes of doubling your earnings. Boras is risking a percentage of that in hopes of a tenfold or hundredfold increase in earnings. Essentially, with money to fall back on, Boras has a low risk and a huge reward. With nothing to fall back on, you have a huge risk and (by percentages) a moderate reward.
Mr. Strasburg, this is not a class action suit. Mr. Boras has no right to use you to make money for others. He should focus solely on representing you in these negotiations. This is not a fight for player’s rights. The fight for draft pick salaries is a universe apart from the fight, waged by Curt Flood and others, for free agency. Mr. Boras is treating you like a player’s rights pioneer. Don’t fall for it. What he’s really doing is treating you like a kidnapping victim. He’s taken you and won’t give you back unless the Nats meet his ransom demands. And if they don’t? Where will he be in 10 years if you hurt your arm before next year’s draft? He’ll be sleeping soundly in his bed, on a mattress stuffed with cash, in his big house that sits on a large piece of property. And were will you be in 10 years if you hurt your arm before next year’s draft?
Washington Nationals: You’ve offered essentially twice what any other draft pick has ever earned. Your offer nearly doubles that given to the last best prospect ever (Mark Prior). If that’s not enough, you cannot be blamed (at least by anyone sensible).
Aaron Crow: You could have earned more money last year and already knocked off one year towards free agency. Now you’re stuck with a lesser offer from the Kansas City Royals, and with no August 17th deadline for you there is little reason for the Royals to increase their offer. Good luck in independent ball next year. Mr. Strasburg should take note since it is the same Royals team that would be in position (if the season ended today) to draft him next year if he fails to sign with Washington today. The Royals won’t offer you $20 million next year Mr. Strasburg, and that’s a guarantee.
Fantasy Advice: If you’re league made Strasburg available and you picked him up, this is a big day for you. If he signs, keep him. He’ll be in the majors no later than next May 2010. If he doesn’t sign, cut him loose, since he wouldn’t sign next year before the August deadline (assuming he’s still represented by Boras) and won’t be worth a keeper spot.
Melky Hits for the Cycle
August 2, 2009
Just a few moments ago, Melky Cabrera hit for the cycle. In his last at bat, he drove the ball to right field over Dye’s head and motored his way to third to seal the deal on the illustrious achievement. It was the first cycle since 1995 for the New York Yankees. That one was hit by Tony Fernandez.
In an interview after the game, Melky said he was going to go to third even if he made an out. He proved today that he is a viable starting outfielder and should be owned in many leagues.
Trade Scorecard: Grading the Deals and Picking Winners & Losers
July 30, 2009
This segment will examine noteworthy trades of 2009 and their fantasy impact:
1. Matt Holliday
St. Louis gets: Matt Holliday
Oakland gets: Brett Wallace, Clay Mortensen, Shane Peterson
Winner: Oakland A’s. Wallace is a bona fide stud at the hot corner, a position the A’s have had difficulty with lo these past few season (see Eric Chavez and his varied injuries). Clay Mortensen is considered by many to be one of the Cards’ top pitching prospects. So, the acquisition of bat-for-hire Matt Holliday came at the cost of a few top prospects.
2. Cliff Lee
Phillies get: Cliff Lee & Ben Francisco
Oakland get: Carlos Carrasco, Jason Donald, Jason Knapp, Lou Marson
Winner: Philadelphia Phillies. Cliff Lee seems to be everyone’s consolation prize since the asking price for Roy Halladay seemed out-of-this-world. That would be selling the former Cy Young winner short. After coming into his own in 2008, Lee has followed up with a stellar 2009, albeit without the wins. Sure, the Phillies gave up Carrasco, one of their top starters in the minors, but Carlos Carrasco had been having an abysmal year in 2009 and the remaining ingredients in the deal were not highly touted prospects, making the winner obvious – Philadelphia.
3. Julio Lugo
St. Louis gets: Julio Lugo
Boston gets: Chris Duncan
Winner: St. Louis. In spite of a penchant for domestic abuse that sent him packing from Houston, Lugo is a solid offensive contributor. He can play several positions on the diamond, and has proven time and again an ability to get on base, steal, and even hit for some pop. Chris Duncan is nothing more than a fourth OF or a platoon player capable of hitting the occasional home run. Duncan lacks the defensive prowess or ability to handle southpaws required of an everyday player. Sure, it is possible that Duncan will flourish in Boston or recapture some of his lost power, but in the meantime – advantage Cardinals.
4. Freddy Sanchez
San Francisco gets: Freddy Sanchez
Pittsburgh get: Tim Alderson
Winner: Pirates. Easy declaration. Freddy Sanchez, for all of his hype as a former batting title winner and All-Star, is a somewhat power-starved (career high 11 homers in 2007) infielder with a penchant for the DL. The Pirates net a top draft pick and one of the best prospects in the minors in Tim Alderson, a stud already in double A at age 21. Look for Alderson to round out the new-look Pirates starting rotation in 2010, and NL-only fantasy GM’s should jump on Delwyn Young who will inherit the starting job at 2B from the departing Sanchez.
5. Jack Wilson & Ian Snell
Seattle gets: Jack Wilson & Ian Snell
Pittsburgh gets: Jeff Clement, Ronny Cedeno, Nathan Adcock, Brett Lorin and Aaron Pribanic
Winner: Seattle. The Mariners get a top defensive SS with a decent bat and a serviceable starting pitching with a lot of upside who is sorely in need of a fresh start. The Pirates don’t get magic beans back, though. The Bucs get Clement and Cedeno, two major league ready talents with some upside of their own. Still, early indications are that Seattle won this deal.
6. Mark DeRosa
St. Louis gets: Mark DeRosa
Cleveland gets: Chris Perez
Winner: St. Louis. The Cardinals discovered what the rest of us already knew – that closers are not as difficult to manufacture as they appear (see perennial underachiever turned All-Star closer Ryan Franklin). So, the fact that Chris Perez seemed like a talented but unremarkable reliever no longer seemed reason enough to hold fast to the former closer-of-the-future. DeRosa, on the other hand, a versatile defensive infielder also capable of holding his own in the outfield, can flat out hit. When healthy and given the opportunity to start, DeRosa is more than capable of eclipsing 20 homers and batting .280+. With the mental collapse of Khalil Greene and anemic bat of Brendan Ryan, this one is a no-brainer – advantage Cardinals.
7. Ryan Garko
San Francisco gets: Ryan Garko
Cleveland gets: Scott Barnes
Winner: San Francisco. San Fran gets a power hitting first baseman who is under their control beyond 2009, and fills the void at first, either as a starter or as a platoon righty to balance the deficiencies of Travis Ishikawa and Jesus Guzman. More likely than not Garko will start and hit, making this trade an easy one to judge.
Phillies Trade For Cliff Lee – Fantasy Impact
July 29, 2009
According to ESPN, the Cleveland Indians just traded Cliff Lee and Ben Francisco to the Philadelphia Phillies in exchange for minor leaguers, Carlos Carrasco (P), Jason Knapp (P), Lou Marson (C), and Jason Donald (SS).
The trade is a coup for the Philadelphia Phillies who, in their quest to repeat as World Champions, are in desperate need of another strong starter to carry the team — especially with Cole Hamels struggling and Brett Myers on the shelf. It also is a coup for NL-only fantasy managers who are able to pick up Lee off waivers, or mixed league managers who already own Lee and are hoping for more wins.
Lee has a 7 wins and a 3.13 ERA in 152 innings pitched. Fantasy owners can expect Lee to get more wins now that he is backed by the potent Philadelphia offense. But don’t be shocked if his ERA rises. Lee has a tendency to let up a lot of home runs, and Philadelphia’s bandbox of a ballpark may accentuate that problem. Like most pitchers, however, Lee will benefit from no longer having to face a designated hitter. So, his ERA on the road should be stellar.
Outfielder, Ben Francisco was having a decent year in Cleveland (.250 average with 10 homers in ~300 at-bats), but will feature as more of a role player in Philadelphia. Stuck behind Jayson Werth, Raul Ibanez, and Shane Victorino, Francisco will not receive too many starts barring an injury to one of the starters or a trade. For AL-only owners of Francisco, you got hosed and will now need to scramble to find a worthy replacement, not an easy task to accomplish at this point in the season. Depending on how gullible managers in your league are, NL-only managers may want to pick up Francisco and trade him immediately, touting his 10 homers and 33 RBI’s, to an unsuspecting manager.
As for the minor leaguers headed to Cleveland, Carrasco and Marson hold the most fantasy baseball value. Carrasco, currently in Triple A was ranked the 28th best prospect in the minors by mlb.com. He has a three good pitches, with a fastball that reaches upward of 95 mph. After featuring in the futures game in 2008, Carrasco has struggled mightily in 2009. His ERA currently sits at 5.18 with a .262 batting average against. Still, his high strikeout numbers and low walk totals suggest a dominance that may eventually be harnassed by Cleveland.
Lou Marson, a former 4th round draft pick, is now the heir apparent to Victor Martinez at catcher. The 23 year old was hitting .294 in Triple A with a .382 OBP%, 1 homer and 24 RBI’s in 211 at-bats. In 2008, he did even better – hitting .314 with a .433 OBP%. He projects as a poor man’s Michael Young at catcher, and without the power.
Jason Knapp has potential, but won’t be ready for the majors for several years. Currently in Single A, Knapp has a 4.01 ERA and great periphery stats: 85 innings pitched, only 63 hits allowed, and an impressive 111 K’s. But Knapp is wild (39 walks) and will need to improve his control, while maintainng his dominance, at higher levels of the minors before he comes a true fantasy baseball target.
Shorstop Jason Donald appears to be a buy-low gamble by the Indians. Currently in Triple A, Donald is hitting only .235 with 1 homer, 17 RBI’s and a .296 OBP% in 234 at-bats. Contrast that with his 2008 performance, where he was named one of the Arizona Fall League’s Rising Stars, and hit .307 with 14 homers, 54 RBI’s and a .391 OBP% in 362 at-bats.
All four of these minor leaguers are worth looking at if your league includes a deep minor league system. Carrasco and Marson should be on your radar for 2010 and are likely to see some playing time in the majors as the season moves toward a close.
Note that the Phillies were able to hold onto their most prized prospects; namely, Dominic Brown, Michael Taylor, and Kyle Drabek. All three are worth watching and hold promise as future stars.
Meet Garrett Jones
July 26, 2009
Since his recall from Triple A by the Pirates, Garrett Jones (1B/OF) has taken the Bigs by storm. In just 76 at bats during 2009 since his promotion, Jones has knocked 10 homers, driven in 15 runs, and stolen 3 bases, while batting a robust .342/.398/.842. In fact, no Pirate has hit as many homers as Jones has in a single month since Hall of Fame alumnus Willie Stargell. It is thought that Garrett Jones’ emergence as a credible big league power threat directly contributed to the recent trade of Adam LaRoche to Boston. So what do we make of the mountainous hype surrounding this 28 year old late-comer? In order to determine Jones’ legitimacy, it will prove worthwhile to delve a little bit deeper.
Jones is not a newcomer to the power scene. After all, he’s reached the 30 home run plateau before in the minors (and the 20 home run mark three times). Rather than power though, it is Garrett Jones’ patience at the dish that is lending most directly to his present success. Moreso, Jones has established himself as an emerging threat to swipe bases – adding another weapon on his game. Before his recent recall, Jones had belted 12 homers, 18 doubles, stolen 14 bases, and was batting .307 in the International League (277 at bats). So having already notched a collective 22 homers, 17 steals, and 24 doubles in around 350 at bats – where will Garrett Jones go from here?
Well, it is fair to say that with LaRoche in Boston, Jones will enjoy some job security at either first base or left field (at least until the recall of Lastings Milledge). It appears that the Pirates outfield will feature prize Andrew McCutchen in center field, Milledge in left, and either Brandon Moss or Steve Pearce in right field. So, in order to maintain the playing time (and precious three-hole in the lineup card), Garrett Jones will have to do what he does best - hit. Astute Fantasy GM’s should plan for a more terrestrial batting average moving forward, but the power and speed should be reasonable. Don’t hold your breath on Jones becoming the next Grady Sizemore, but Pittsburgh is hoping he can plug up the gaping offensive void LaRoche’s departure creates.
Fantasy Impact: Matt Holliday Traded to St. Louis
July 24, 2009
Imagine this – Matt Holliday batting cleanup behind King Albert (Pujols). Well, early Friday a trade sending St. Louis uber-prospect Brett Wallace (as the centerpiece in a multiprospect deal) to Oakland in exchange for 2009’s free agent prize Matt Holliday was finalized. Along with Wallace, the Athletics net Clay Mortenson and Shane Peterson. At the time of the trade, Holliday was hitting .286 with 11 homers and 12 steals with 54 RBI, amounting to a disappointing season for the soon-to-be big contract seeker.
For AL-only Matt Holliday owners, this trade represents a loss with no discernable immediate gain in non-keeper formats. In keeper formats, however, the gain of Wallace hardly provides solace. At least he provides a potent future bat at the hot corner. On the Athletics, Wallace may in fact see regular playing time as early as this season (with the loss of Eric Chavez to yet another surgery and the implosion of all third base alternatives).
In NL-only formats, and depending on league rules, lucky fantasy GM’s may have inherited Matt Holliday for little more than a triple A, blue chip, 20+ homer prospective Big League talent. That is not to minimize the potential in Wallace, but keeper leaguers will certainly value him more than others..at least until his recall.
Mixed league Holliday owners may be pleased by his newfound offensive protection, sandwiched between Pujols and Ryan Ludwick in a run-producing St. Louis batting order now brandishing Rick Ankiel as it’s seven hitter. Either way, it will be interesting to see the impact on Pujols, who rarely enjoys the protection he may now find.
No matter your league format or team loyalty, the long awaited dealing of Matt Holliday has now come and gone. Barring a sudden collapse in fortune by St. Louis, that leaves some other big named talents still on the market. Namely – Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, and George Sherrill. Tune in for future editions of Fantasy Impact, following noteworthy fantasy trades.
Did You Know…?
Five shortstops scored at least 100 runs (including Marco Scutaro)?
Polls
Loading ...Fast Links To Articles
Calendar
Blogroll
Meta
Archives
Advertisement
