h2h Corner ~ I’m a Believer: August Edition
July 29, 2010
Welcome to this month’s “I’m a Believer” column. Yes, I got the name from a Monkees’ song. And yes, I like the song. Did you know that Neil Diamond wrote it, as well as many other songs by the Monkees? Isn’t Neil Diamond cool (Red Sox fans)?
Like the song teaches us, this column attempts to be a fun, quick read, mostly focused on what performances we can/can’t believe in.
Without further ado, I’m a believer that:
If you need speed, Emilio Bonifacio makes an interesting add in deep leagues.
Jonathan Broxton, Francisco Rodriguez and Brad Lidge have been three of the worst relievers over the last month. With Lidge actually being the most valuable of the trio. Go figure.
The best thing about summer that isn’t sports or bikini related is Big Brother. I like big boobed chemist sounds like Maria from Celebrity Apprentice. Agree? Also I feel like Matt is a less nerdy version of Ronnie. He is playing way too hard this early. The brigade will be picked apart when Enzo turns on Hayden because of Kristen. The winner: Lane. I think he is sneaky smart. Also Britney is very pretty/bitchy.
Jered Weaver is a dream weaver.
As I mentioned last month, the Astros have, at least one intriguing young player in Chris Johnson. The Astros should trade anyone they can to get young cheap pieces for, including Brett Myers.
This is the easiest column to write. It’s lazy, like you and me.
I still don’t buy Adrian Beltre’s production (.358 BAbip). Just an FYI: his average has gone down from .349 to .333 over the last month. During the last 28 days his BAbip was .265. That is closer to his career total of .294.
“Ed will win Hell’s Kitchen.” Boy was I wrong with that one. My girlfriend thought Holli a few weeks ago. She might be right.
The minute I give up on Cole Hamels he starts to dominate again.
I thought I was crazy when I said Billy Wagner could strike out 100 batters this year. Well he has 61 Ks already.
You never should draft a catcher high. Your top 5 fantasy catchers on the year: Joe Mauer, Miguel Olivo, Brian McCann, Mike Napoli, and John Buck. Three were afterthoughts on draft day. Buster Posey has been the number one fantasy player over the last month.
I will own James Shields all year – I will never give up on him.
Rickie Weeks is one of the best kept fantasy secrets – a top five second baseman. He is Dan Uggla with a little speed and better average.
I still find it hard to trust Josh Hamilton. Let’s call it a hunch.
I’ve tried to write negative things about Alex Rios, but I can’t find any facts to support those negative views. In short, he’ll continue to be the rock star I thought he was a few years ago.
Ricky Nolasco is back: 49 Ks over his last 40 IPs with a sub 1.00 WHIP
I’ll still take Albert Pujols as the top first basemen next year, even if he finishes behind Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto and Ryan Howard this year.
Robinson Cano, depending on how much you paid/where you drafted him, could be a very nice keeper next year. I’ll go ahead and call him the next fantasy Chase Utley (he doesn’t have Utley’s glove or base running acumen).
I stand by July’s statement: “Dan Haren, notwithstanding his regular second half swoons, makes an interesting buy. If he is traded, we could see an uptick in performance.”
While he hasn’t been exceptional, Mark Teixeira is looking at 35+ HRs and a top 30 ranking at the end of the year.
Ranking Alex Rodriguez in 2011 will be very interesting. Evan Longoria (on pace for a near 30-30 season with over 100 runs and RBIs), Kevin Youkilis and David Wright seem to have left him behind. Is he a third rounder?
Justin Upton has brought his average up to .280. He’ll have a monster rest of the year.
It really shouldn’t be a shock that Derek Jeter (in a semi-unlucky/down year) is the second best fantasy shortstop. At some point, we have to just believe.
Tim Lincecum’s 2010 is exactly why you don’t draft a pitcher in the first round. You never know what can happen. Another reason? The top five pitchers this year: Adam Wainwright, Josh Johnson, Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Ubaldo Jimenez. The next five Mat Latos, Jon Lester, Jered Weaver, Carl Pavano and Felix Hernandez. That’s crazy preseason fluctuation.
That said, people are overreacting to Lincecum’s swoon. I’d have no problem buying him. I certainly see him as a top 15 pitcher going forward.
Elvis Andrus has a just enough Chone Figgins in him to scare me a tiny bit.
Vicente Padilla has been downright nasty over his last 34 IPs. He won’t continue to be this good.
Next year I am only drafting Rangers outfielders. If Nelson Cruz could stay healthy, he might challenge for top 10 status.
People are always happy when they draft Torii Hunter. There he sits in the top 50 again this year above the likes of Hollywood Matt Kemp, Phenom Justin Upton, and lefty-masher Jayson Werth.
Ryan Dempster is the most underrated fantasy pitcher. Teammate Ted Lilly isn’t too far behind.
I’m surprised Andrew McCutchen barely sneaks into the top 100 and that his numbers are marginally better than Andres Torres. I like Torres, he has been a godsend in an NL-only league where I finally traded Jason Bay and dropped Nate McLouth. By the way, Jose Tabata should be owned a lot more.
Speaking of speedy Pirates, Nyjer Morgan is starting to get on base and not get caught stealing.
Jim Thome benefits the most from Justin Morneau’s concussion.
I’m looking good for saying Alfredo Simon would end up with “the most saves of anyone who is SP-eligible.”
FB101’s 411: Stick to your guns. Don’t stop believing.
All stats as of July 28.
h2h Corner ~ the Closer Carousel
July 23, 2010
As Kevin Nealon said, “yeah, lot of pressure. You gotta rise above it. You gotta harness in the good energy, block out the bad. Harness. Energy. Block. Bad. Feel the flow, Happy. Feel it. It’s circular. It’s like a carousel. You pay the quarter, you get on the horse. It goes up and down and around. Circular. Circle. With the music. The flow… all good things.”
It is no different than with a majority of major league closers. Sure some are like violent roller coasters (Armando Benitez) and some are like the teacups (Mariano Rivera), but most are in the muddy middle. Thus introduces your weekly reliever mash-up.
Relievers you should be jumping on (in order):
Chicago White Sox – I feel like I’ve written this story a dozen times this year: “The White Sox’s closer’s role is open,” reports Mark Gonzales for Chicago Breaking Sports. From a baseball sense, you would like Guillen to always play the match-ups, given that he has two shut-down righties and one shut-down lefty. Read more
h2h Corner ~ the Closer Carousel
June 30, 2010
As Kevin Nealon said, “yeah, lot of pressure. You gotta rise above it. You gotta harness in the good energy, block out the bad. Harness. Energy. Block. Bad. Feel the flow, Happy. Feel it. It’s circular. It’s like a carousel. You pay the quarter, you get on the horse. It goes up and down and around. Circular. Circle. With the music. The flow… all good things.”
It is no different than with a majority of major league cl Read more
h2h Corner ~ the Closer Carousel
June 21, 2010
As Kevin Nealon said, “yeah, lot of pressure. You gotta rise above it. You gotta harness in the good energy, block out the bad. Harness. Energy. Block. Bad. Feel the flow, Happy. Feel it. It’s circular. It’s like a carousel. You pay the quarter, you get on the horse. It goes up and down and around. Circular. Circle. With the music. The flow… all good things.” Read more
h2h Corner ~ the Closer Carousel
June 9, 2010
As Kevin Nealon said, “yeah, lot of pressure. You gotta rise above it. You gotta harness in the good energy, block out the bad. Harness. Energy. Block. Bad. Feel the flow, Happy. Feel it. It’s circular. It’s like a carousel. You pay the quarter, you get on the horse. It goes up and down and around. Circular. Circle. With the music. The flow… all good things.” Read more
Keeper Corner: It’s a Hit for Mike Stanton
June 8, 2010
While all eyes around the major leagues seemed focused on the 14 strikeout debut of Washington Nationals Stephen Strasburg, about a hundred miles north in Philadelphia Michael Stanton was making his debut in right field for the Florida Marlins.
Stanton came in leading professional baseball with 21 homers so far this year while playing for the AA Jacksonville. Ironically in his opening debut he showed patience, working the count full and then delivered a chopped infield hit up the middle. He then showed nice speed scoring easily on a double by Ronny Paulino. Read more
h2h Corner ~ the Closer Carousel
June 3, 2010
As Kevin Nealon said, “yeah, lot of pressure. You gotta rise above it. You gotta harness in the good energy, block out the bad. Harness. Energy. Block. Bad. Feel the flow, Happy. Feel it. It’s circular. It’s like a carousel. You pay the quarter, you get on the horse. It goes up and down and around. Circular. Circle. With the music. The flow… all good things.”
It is no different than with a majority of major league closers. Sure some are like violent roller coasters (Armando Benitez) and some are like the teacups (Mariano Rivera), but most are in the muddy middle. Thus introduces your weekly reliever mash-up.
Relievers you should be jumping on (in order):
Milwaukee Brewers – Up until yesterday, Trevor Hoffman had pitched three scoreless innings in a row. Unfortunately, he couldn’t maintain the momentum as he gave up three runs in just one inning last night. Of course, on the year, his WHIP is still north of 2.00 and ERA is comfortably in the double digits. Meanwhile, John Axford has recorded two saves and has struck out 13 batters in eight innings. He has posted a much more friendly 2.25 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. While I think the Brewers will give Hoffman every opportunity to pursue save 600, his complete ineptitude might prohibit him from doing his Joe Borowski impression. Axford is a good add right now as someone who could maintain the closer role
Toronto Blue Jays – Kevin Gregg is happy to see May go away (5.11 ERA and 1.95 WHIP). Unfortunately, his struggles are following him (one could say they have followed him throughout his career), as he blew a save in spectacular fashion going only 0.2 IPs, while walking FIVE, allowing one hit and four runs. Meanwhile, since a disastrous start, Jason Frasor has been good. He has lowered his ERA to 4.64 and WHIP to 1.69. While those aren’t great, they are light years better then where they were at the end of April (8.38 ERA and 2.59 WHIP). Still, the best Blue Jays reliever has been lefty Scott Downs. He sports a 2.96 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. Even though he is a lefty, I’d prefer to have Downs if I am speculating for saves in Toronto. When in doubt, take the best arm and that is certainly Downs.
Philadelphia Phillies – Apparently the fountain of youth is a move to the bull pen in the National League as Jose Contreras has been super dominant (0.56 ERA and 0.75 WHIP). Unfortunately, Charlie Manuel seems to believe that Brad Lidge is both healthy and effective (he hasn’t been either for 1.5 years). According to Matt Gelb, “We’ll work him in,” Phillies manager Charlie Manuel said of Lidge. “I’m not going to say how long it’s going to be. It probably won’t be very long.” JC Romero’s usefulness has ended. Keep Contreras around for awhile, as Lidge is not far away from a bad outing or DL-stint.
Arizona Diamondbacks – Chad Qualls hasn’t been any good all year – neither have the other arms in the bullpen. If you own Qualls or need to speculate, Aaron Heilman, while imperfect, is the addition here.
Chicago White Sox – The White Sox are 8.5 games behind the Minnesota Twins. No one outside the AL East is earning the Wild Card. Soon the White Sox will be sellers. Clearly Bobby Jenks can be moved as the Sox have two viable replacements in Matt Thornton and Sergio Santos. Both have pitched well this year and sport K/9 rates over 10. Thornton has seven years on Santos. So, long-term, the White Sox will want to see if Santos has the stuff to be their closer of the future. I say Santos will get the most save opportunities down the stretch (when the White Sox are out of it). However, if they stay in the race, the Sox could split time between Santos and Thornton, with Thornton getting heavy lefty line-ups. Either way, Santos should get the most save opportunities, if Jenks gets dealt.
If you need help with a snap closer decision, check out the below hierarchy of middling relievers.
All stats as of June 1.
h2h Corner ~ I’m a Believer: June Edition
May 28, 2010
Welcome to June’s “I’m a Believer” column. Yes, I got the name from a Monkees’ song. And yes, I like the song. Did you know that Neil Diamond wrote it, as well as many other songs by the Monkees? Isn’t Neil Diamond cool (Red Sox fans)?
Like the song teaches us, this column attempts to be a fun, quick read, mostly focused on what performances we can/can’t believe in.
Without further ado, So I’m a believer that:
Ryan Braun will be the #1 fantasy hitter for the season. Last month I said he could challenge, I’ve upgraded my belief.
Injuries suck. Good bye Andre Ethier remaining a top 10 hitter for the balance of the year. Good bye Jacoby Ellsbury being valuable.
Alex Rios has finally put it all together. He is a top 40 hitter at the worst, perhaps top 20. I was two years too late on this prediction.
Robinson Cano will end up the number one second baseman.
Six of the current top 10 hitters will not finish the year in the top 10. Those (oceanic) six are: Vlad Guerrero, Justin Morneau, Andre Ethier, Alex Rios, Joey Votto and Jose Bautista. They will be replaced by Albert Pujols, Robinson Cano, Matt Kemp, Troy Tulowitzki, Chase Utley, and Nelson Cruz (if his hamstring is better).
Jack Sheppard died in the bamboo forest (after smokey stabbed him) – not in the plane crash or the atomic bomb. (That was a ridiculous sentence). The flash sideways was corny but absolutely awesome. That nothing in the flash sideways actually happened (in a I think therefore I am kind of way).
It’s incredibly fun to own Miguel Olivo (four SBs), but I’d be mighty worried about Chris Iannetta.
The catching position is incredibly frustrating, to wit: your top five backstops: Olivo, Rod Barajas, Joe Mauer, John Buck and Jorge Posada. One is on the DL, two were drafted, one barely drafted and two were afterthoughts. This won’t continue, but the catching position is too volatile to spend an early draft pick on.
None of the late first-round first basemen darlings (Prince Fielder, Ryan Howard and Mark Teixeira) will finish among the top 5 at the position. Also this should remind you that you can wait on first basemen. All first rounder 1bs (including Pujols) have put up worse fantasy seasons than Paul Konerko. In addition, Ty Wigginton, Billy Butler and James Loney have performed better than Howard, Fielder and Teixeira. Meanwhile Jorge Cantu, Adam LaRoche, Nick Swisher, Martin Prado, Adrian Gonzalez and David Ortiz have performed better than Teixeira and Fielder.
Adam LaRoche will have an under-the-radar awesome season.
I can’t buy Alberto Callaspo as anything other than a Placido Polanco clone – I just won’t do it.
You deserve a pat on the back for buying low on Ben Zobrist.
Come this time next month, I’ll be patting those on the back who bought low on Chone Figgins.
Elvis Andrus is the next Jose Reyes.
The original Jose Reyes is starting to look good, buy while you can.
Orlando Cabrera has played himself into consideration to be a top five SS option for the rest of the year.
You can sell high on Scott Rolen, but you don’t have to. He seems to hold up better playing on grass versus turf. He’ll get dinged up, but might avoid a massive DL-stint this year.
I’m not sure if I believe what I just wrote.
Adrian Beltre is proving me wrong. Those who bought him late deserve some kudos.
I hope you traded Chase Headley when he was stealing all those bases. He has stolen 2 bases since April 26.
Jason Heyward is awesome, but I’d still trade him. Listen, there is no way to quantify how he’ll hold up for a 162-game season (in a potential Wild Card/Pennant Race, no less). What happens when he sees pitchers for the third, four, fifth time? Odds are he’ll continue to succeed. However, he is only 20. I’d rather someone else take the risk and enjoy his rookie year from afar.
You all everybody!
Shin-soo Choo remains criminally underrated. Ditto Denard Span.
Andrew McCutchen is basically Carl Crawford with a bit more pop, a lot less hype and a much worse supporting cast.
Brett Gardner is everything I thought Nyjer Morgan would be
Russell Hantz will never win Survivor. Parvati is the best player ever.
I wish I listened to myself and drafted Ubaldo Jimenez on more teams. I said “I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up more valuable than Beckett, Clayton Kershaw, Josh Johnson or Chris Carpenter.”
Josh Johnson can become the next Roy Halladay. They’re both consistently awesome.
I’d trade Jaime Garcia – it can’t get better than this.
Jon Lester is the best pitcher in the American League – and his competition comes from the Rays (Matt Garza, David Price and James Shields).
You should trade Barry Zito. He will start to give up HRs, it’s a certainty.
Tim Hudson doesn’t strike out enough batters.
The American League East is brutal on pitchers AND hitters (three of the top five K pitchers are Ricky Romero, Lester and Shields).
Jonathan Broxton might make me wrong, as I predicted Carlos Marmol would end up the top ranked reliever. Broxton is equally as nasty and less volatile.
While Brett Michaels is cornier than the Lost finale, he’s still cool. His performance on Celebrity Apprentice was imminently likeable. Holly Robinson Peete has aged really well.
You can’t give up on Brian Matusz (which explains why I’m an unqualified Orioles homer), Cole Hamels, Randy Wolf, Carlos Zambrano, Rick Porcello and Gavin Floyd.
You can give up on Scott Kazmir, Jake Peavy, and Derek Lowe.
Alfredo Simon will get the most saves of anyone who is SP-eligible.
I’m going to be incredibly sad when I finish the samosa I am eating.
FB101’s 411: Stick to your guns. Don’t stop believing.
All stats as of May 27.
Throwing Darts: Pitchers Who Should Be Owned
May 27, 2010
You go the bar and every time, you take the same guys. Then, you start playing everyone’s favorite bar game: darts. And it seems everyone is just good enough to make each other look better than they really are. As time goes by, some of you get better, but most stay the same.
Then, something crazy happens. You change venues. Instead of going to Joe’s, now you’re going to Mike’s. All of a sudden, a couple of guys’ games have picked it up. Instead of throwing double 20’s, they are throwing bulls eye’s and triple 20’s like some grizzled veterans.
The same could be said about many current starters. With new faces in new places, things can go terribly right (say, Jon Garland) or terribly wrong (Jake Peavy). Some of those guys SHOULD be owned in your league, so let’s take a look at who those are:
Jon Garland – At this point, he should be owned in every league. Some would argue that he should ONLY be started at home (3-0, 0.84 ERA, .214 BAA) yet, he hasn’t been terrible on the road (3-2, 3.45 ERA, .257 BAA). Fluky? I think not. He has only allowed more than 2 ER in a game TWICE this season and hasn’t allowed a home run since his second start of the season. Only owned in 52% of Yahoo leagues, he should be owned in many, many more. I advise that he should be picked up in every league and should be started until someone finally hits him hard.
Hisanori Takahashi - Though he only has two starts so far (and 16 appearances in relief), Takahashi has pitched 12 innings of shutout ball against the Yankees and Phillies. By shutting down two of the hottest offenses in baseball, Taka has definitely put himself on the watch list. He should already be owned in NL only leagues, but mixed leaguers may want to sit back and see how he does in his next start or two before investing in him.
Ian Kennedy – Man, being rejected by the Yankees sure can be good for a man’s career, huh? After performing rather terribly in pinstripes, the newest Diamondbacks’ starting pitcher has been a reliable starter for both the DBack’s and fantasy owners the same. Since starting off the season rather rocky, Kennedy has lowered his ERA by half. Kennedy has been prone to the long ball, but is definitely a match up play against the weaker offenses of the NL. An add and see in only leagues and a sit in watch in shallow, mixed leagues.
Colby Lewis – Spend some time in Asia and it can change your life. Just ask Lewis, who went from being a reliever with the inability to hold a lead to a high strikeout, reliable SP. Though his ERA does stand to rise as the temperatures do in Arlington, his high strike out rate and solid offense behind him can help even the most ERA conscious owners throughout the season. He is only owned in about 2/3 of leagues, so he is definitely still available and an arm I recommend picking up.
Mike Leake – Being the first pitcher in 15 years to go directly from the draft to the big leagues can out a lot of pressure on a guy, but Leake has seemed to have few holes in his game. He beat out highly regarded prospects Aroldis Chapman and Travis Wood for the #5 spot in the Cincinnati starting rotation and has been the most reliable arm for the team. With 8 quality starts on the season already, his ERA and WHIP sits at a pretty 2.70 and 1.22, respectively. Though both of those numbers are sure to rise, he will continue to be a reliable starter, so long as the Reds do not begin to put him on an innings watch (though, with Dusty Baker running things, there should be no problems with that *cough* Mark Prior and Kerry Wood *cough*). Owned in only 51% of Yahoo leagues, Leake is a great fill in for injured starters such as Josh Beckett and Jair Jurrjens, while also outproducing such outstanding arms like Felix Hernandez and Dan Haren. I highly advise he be picked up in all leagues, if available, and would start him against even the best NL offenses.
Shaun Marcum - Ok, so technically, Marcum isn’t in a new place, but if you consider not pitching last year and spending that time away from the team as a different place (which I do), then, yes, he is in a new place. Coming back from surgery, Marcum has picked up where he left off, with great peripheral numbers (2.82 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, .211 BAA), decent strike out numbers (7.12 K/9) and 8 quality starts in 10 appearances. With the highest ownership percentage on this list (75%) he may only be available in the least of competitive leagues. If you are in an AL only league, have a strong offensive base and need SP, don’t be afraid to sacrifice a bat to add this Jays pitcher, because he will have all the offensive support he needs to maintain a great season.
If you have any questions, comments or concerns, leave’em below or hit me up in other, internet-y places like Twitter (@BalkFour) or via email (anicolausk@yahoo.com).
h2h Corner ~ Team Profile: Toronto Blue Jays
May 26, 2010
The Toronto Blue Jays have scored more runs than the Rays (and every other American League team not nicknamed the Bronx Bombers). The Blue Jays have the most extra base hits – 35 more than the Red Sox, who have the second most. The Blue Jays have 16 more HRs than the second place team (also the Red Sox). The Blue Jays have the most RBIs. While the average (fourth to last) and OBP (third to last) aren’t good, they have been four category dominators. Read more
Did You Know…?
Did you know that Aaron Harang finished the year 6-14, and Francisco Liriano finished 5-13?
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