h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before the Season Even Starts VI
March 10, 2010
Maximizing every drop of value in every pick is hugely important. Taking a player in the fifth round that you could just as easily have taken in the sixth round is a major mistake. To avoid this, you need to know all about Average Draft Position (ADP). Read more
h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before the Season Even Starts V
March 9, 2010
Maximizing every drop of value in every pick is hugely important. Taking a player in the fifth round that you could just as easily have taken in the sixth round is a major mistake. To avoid this, you need to know all about Average Draft Position (ADP). Read more
h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before the Season Even Starts IV
March 8, 2010
Maximizing every drop of value in every pick is hugely important. Taking a player in the fifth round that you could just as easily have taken in the sixth round is a major mistake. To avoid this, you need to know all about Average Draft Position (ADP). Read more
h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before the Season Even Starts III
March 8, 2010
Maximizing every drop of value in every pick is hugely important. Taking a player in the fifth round that you could just as easily have taken in the sixth round is a major mistake. To avoid this, you need to know all about Average Draft Position (ADP). Read more
h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before the Season Even Starts II
March 6, 2010
Maximizing every drop of value in every pick is hugely important. Taking a player in the fifth round that you could just as easily have taken in the sixth round is a major mistake. To avoid this, you need to know all about Average Draft Position (ADP). Read more
h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before the Season Even Starts
March 5, 2010
Maximizing every drop of value in every pick is hugely important. Taking a player in the fifth round that you could just as easily have taken in the sixth round is a major mistake. To avoid this, you need to know all about Average Draft Position (ADP). Read more
Nasty Boys, Part Deux
March 4, 2010
In the early 90’s, the Reds boasted one of the best bullpens in the Bigs. Rob Dibble, Norm Charlton, and Randall “K” Myers, collectively known as the Nasty Boys, instilled fear into the heart of opposing batters, and ensured that late innings leads led to a notch in the win column.
Fast forward to 2010, and a new group of pitchers, this time in the starting rotation, are poised to make a name for themselves. Longtime stalwarts Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo are joined by young bucks Johnny Cueto and Homer Bailey. Throw Cuban sensation Aroldis Chapman and Edinson Volquez into the mix, and the Reds have an arsenal of six flamethrowers for their rotation.
From a fantasy perspective, all six pitchers have tremendous upside, with Harang occupying a spot toward the top of most draft day pitching boards. Still only 31 years old, Harang should continue to rack up the K’s in 2010, while maintaining a sound WHIP and respectable ERA.
Of the five pitchers, Cueto is perhaps the most likely to have a breakout season. After an up and down rookie year in 2008, Cueto put in a solid 2009 campaign with a 4.41 ERA and 11 wins. Cueto has good control and several strong pitches. The 24-year old should take another big step forward this season.
Arroyo is a 33-year old veteran who has tossed 200 or more innings five seasons in a row. His 3.84 ERA in 2009 was his best since 2006, but his strikeouts were significantly down, illustrating a more economical method to pitching. He routinely posts 14-15 wins, but isn’t exactly the best WHIP pitcher in the league. If Volquez is healthy, don’t be shocked if Arroyo is traded. A trade may even enhance his value, especially if he moves to a pitcher friendly stadium which will cut down on his propensity for giving up the long ball.
Homer Bailey was routinely rated one of the top prospects in baseball, but all that talk fizzled out after opposing hitters manhandled him in 2007 and 2008 to the tune of a 5.76 and 7.93 ERA. But he made significant improvement in 2009, posting a 4.53 ERA with an impressive K/IP ratio. Perhaps most telling is his 6-1 record and 1.70 ERA over his final nine starts of the season. He is another potential sleeper because many fantasy baseball owners will look at his season ERA’s and either yawn or steer clear. Don’t be that guy! In NL-only leagues, get him at a low price. In mixed leagues, consider him for a reserve spot, or keep a close eye on him as a potential free agent pickup.
Edinson Volquez burst onto the scene in 2008, piling up 17 wins with a flurry of strikeouts. Unfortunately, he missed most of 2009 with a significant elbow injury and underwent Tommy John surgery. When healthy, he dominates hitters with a mid-90’s heater and a deceptive changeup that is 20 mph slower. Early reports out of Spring Training indicate that his rehab is going well, and he is expected back in mid-July. It typically takes 18 months or longer to fully recover from Tommy John surgery, but he is such an immense talent that he should be considered a draft day sleeper, or a prime candidate to watch on the free agent wire early in the year.
And that leads us to Chapman, the man many are watching this spring. For those unfamiliar with Chapman, he is a young left-handed pitcher with a 100 mph fastball that recently defected from Cuba. So far his main problem is control, which may lead to him starting the year in the minors. We’ll see if he improves in that arena when he makes his major league debut on Monday. Even so, it shouldn’t be long until he makes his major league debut. The Reds need someone to draw in the fans and he could be just what they need to fill up the seats. From a fantasy perspective, he can help with strikeouts, but expect to take a hit in WHIP. Nonetheless, he’s a great choice if you’re playing for the longterm.
Studs and Duds Part I: Hey I’m on a new team edition
March 3, 2010
By Bobby Holt
Sure it’s early, sure the first spring training game was only yesterday, but now is the time to start planning out your team for this upcoming fantasy baseball season. I know I’m excited and I hope you are too. The first thing I would like to say is remember last year when I said A-rod would still hit 30HRs and 100 RBis and I got a ton of hate, boy I love being right. Enough gloating, time for this years first installment of Studs and Duds. For this two part edition I am going to take six players that will be suiting up for a new team this year and choose three that will thrive and three that will under perform. Part one will be Studs.
Studs:
1. Roy Halladay P, PHI
So what happens when you take one of the most dominant pitchers in the American League and move him to the National League, he tears it up, that’s what. Once out of Toronto and onto a real team (sorry, but at least the Blue Jays have really nice hats) he could easily win 18+ games. Unlike his previous years, he also doesn’t have to hold the opposing team to under three runs to get a win. With a real offense surrounding him, Halladay could have one of his best seasons ever. Okay, there’s not much more to say about one of the best pitchers in baseball, but I had to get one right. Now that I got my one gimmie out of the way, time for two more.
2. Javier Vazquez P, NYY
Normally when a pitcher goes from the National League to the American League, they struggle and their stats fall off a bit. However, I think Vazquez has a real chance to improve upon his dominant 2008-2009 season. Let me explain and before all the “Vazquez was bad already on the Yankees” talk, I will get to that too.
First, new Yankee Stadium (it’s not new people, you can stop saying that) is now a notorious hitters park where pitchers who live on ground balls and contact, cough Chien Ming GONE cough, struggle. Vazquez is a power pitcher will excellent stuff. He has the ability to make hitters miss and that will help him tremendously now that Yankee Stadium plays like a Little League field. His K’s should stay around the 200 mark, his ERA should be about four but his win totals should increase to about 17 0r 18. This makes him a very viable number 3 starter on your team.
Next, Javier Vazquez had the best first few months of his career as a Yankee. Everyone seems to forget that Vazquez made his one and only All-Star team as a member of the Yankees. He was hurt for the majority of the second half of the season which caused his production to drop, drastically. I could go on further, but you get the point.
3. Jason Bay OF, NYM
Jason Bay said he wanted to play in New York, and by New York, he didn’t mean the Mets. Funny how things work out. The Mets however were able to get Bay on a pretty reasonable contract for the All-Star outfielder and added a much needed power hitter to their lineup. The first month and a half of the season could be ugly for Bay, depending on where he hits in the order.
With Beltran out for a “month or so” Bay will have no protection. Assuming that the Mets bat Bay 4th, he won’t see a single good pitch with runners in scoring position. I mean, is anyone really scared of Gary Matthew’s Jr. potentially in the 5 spot. Manager Jerry Maneul could flip and put Wright fourth and Bay third, which would result in Bay seeing good pitches to hit. Unfortunately for Bay, I don’t think that will happen. Once Beltran returns to the lineup and offers Bay protection, his numbers will drastically rise. HRs will likely drop a little, but with so much space in the outfield in Citi field, his average, hits and RBI totals should increase. Making the Bay signing a very good one.
Stay tuned for the next part where I will go over the duds.
Questions or comments? Leave one below or email me at robertholtjr@gmail.com
Breaking Down the Blockbuster
December 19, 2009
As a lifelong Phillies fan, I’m ecstatic to have the best pitcher in baseball anchoring our staff, but also selfishly would have loved to have had a “1-A” as well, if only for a year. But that wasn’t to be, and now Cliff Lee is a Mariner and Roy Halladay is a Phillie. But does this Earth-shattering transaction have any reverberations on your fantasy baseball team? The simple answer: it depends.
Let’s break it down by player:
Roy Halladay (2009 stats: 17 W, 2.79 ERA, 208 K, 1.13 WHIP): Halladay quite simply is the best hurler in the game right now. He’s a game-changing pitcher, and if you land him in your draft, it’s akin to grabbing Roger Clemens or Randy Johnson in their primes – you’ve got a leg-up on the competition no matter who the other teams pick as their No. 1.
Halladay is going from a division in which he faced the powerful Yankees and Red Sox regularly to a potent NL East, but he’s joining the best offensive team in the division. The Braves, Marlins and Mets will pose a challenge, but nothing on the level of the Yankees, Sox and Rays. And the Orioles were better than the Nationals (.268 BA vs. .258, scored 31 more runs). So Doc Halladay is moving to a less offensive division, and the biggest threat are his teammates. Throw in the loss of a designated hitter, and Halladay is poised for a dominant season.
Stat-wise, expecting 20 wins, a sub-2.70 ERA, 200+ strikeouts and a WHIP hovering around 1.10 is not unrealistic.
If you’re in an NL-only league, this is a difference-making draft pick. He’s probably the second-biggest impact player (behind only Albert Pujols). He should go no lower than No. 5 in the draft (maybe Tim Lincecum and Hanley Ramirez sneak in ahead of him). Chris Carpenter and Jair Jurrjens are incredible pitchers, but they don’t rack up the K’s like Halladay, Lincecum and Adam Wainwright. However, if you play in a mixed league, the overall impact of this trade is minimal. Halladay was a top-10 draft pick before the trade and will continue to be in 2010.
Cliff Lee (2009 stats: 14 W, 3.22 ERA, 181 K, 1.24 WHIP): Lee was nothing short of brilliant during his short tenure with the Fightin’ Phils. You absolutely can’t discount his performance in the playoffs (4 wins, 1.56 ERA, 33 strikeouts, 0.82 WHIP in 40.1 innings). It’s frightening to read that line as a Phillies fan and realize he’s not on the team next year.
By comparison, Lee joins the AL West, where his new team is the one on the move, adding Chone Figgins (and taking him away from division rival Angels) and Milton Bradley. The Mariners will be better next year, but Lee is not joining the best team in the division. Despite losing John Lackey, the Angels did win 97 games last year and are poised for another good season, and Texas is always dangerous.
2010 will be a test for Lee. Will he be dominant like his 2008 Cy Young season, or will he have a bump in the road after moving to his third team in half a season? After watching him for five months, I think he’s unflappable and will excel. He also has the motivation of this being his “walk” year, so I think he’s looking at something in the neighborhood of 18 wins, 3.10 ERA, 200 strikeouts, 1.20 WHIP.
If you’re in an AL-only league, grab him up while you can. He’s probably the fifth-best starter out there (behind CC Sabathia, teammate Felix Hernandez, Justin Verlander and Zach Grienke), depending on how you rank Jon Lester and Josh Beckett. In a mixed league, he should go in the top 20.
What about the other players exchanged? Are any of them winners or losers? Kyle Drabek could be in for an interesting ride depending on how long the Blue Jays’ rebuilding efforts last. If they are content to go with the flow, Drabek will have time to develop and could be in the rotation to start 2011. But if they decide to elevate talent, the son of Doug Drabek could be in the bigs facing the likes of Derek Jeter, A-Rod, David Ortiz and Evan Longoria this summer. If that happens, it’ll be a baptism by fire. Whether he wins out or loses depends on way too many factors to predict right now.
However, Michael Taylor is an easy pick as a winner. He wasn’t going to crack the Phillies starting lineup in 2010 with the All-Star trio of Raul Ibanez, Shane Victorino and Jayson Werth under contract, and he wasn’t even the clear-cut top outfield prospect in the franchise (think Dominic Brown). After being shipped from Toronto to Oakland in a secondary trade, Taylor could crack the A’s starting lineup in left field in 2010.
The dust has settled on this blockbuster, but until the first pitch is thrown, it’s all fun and speculation. Just get ready for a steady stream of Lee vs. Halladay side-by-side comparisons next year.
Time to Hit the Panic Button?
May 31, 2009
Let the dumping begin.
Much like high school, fantasy baseball begins each year with great expectations. And much like high school, fantasy baseball owners rarely end up going to prom with their dream date.
In the preseason, we all draft who we think is going to propel us to victory. We scrutinize and agonize over statistics, projections and that “X-factor,” trying to determine who are the best pieces to this puzzle. Sometimes, those players we draft are exactly what we wanted. Other times, we’re left scratching our heads and wondering what exactly we did to deserve this cruel prank of an unproductive third-round draft pick.
For each flop we draft, we must carefully weigh whether it is better to drop said player and pick up a lesser-known commodity, or whether we should wait it out in the hopes that they come around. For me, I try to use the two-month rule before hitting the “panic button.” And the time to hit that button is now.
By June 1, you’ve hopefully gotten a fair sample of what a player is going to (or not going to) produce that season. You can safely drop a pitcher with an ERA higher than your class valedictorian’s GPA. You can cast aside a batter whose batting average makes that Mendoza guy look like an All-Star. If you’re not where you want to be in the standings, it’s time to look to make some wholesale changes.
And yet in Yahoo! Fantasy Baseball, 81% of the leagues have a team “boasting” the woeful David Ortiz (.185, 1 HR, 18 RBI, 0 SB, 15 R). In nearly two-thirds of the leagues, Garrett Atkins (.193, 3, 17, 0, 17) is unavailable because he’s already nestled on someone’s roster. And Brandon Morrow (0 W, 6 Sv, 18 K, 7.63 ERA, 2.02 WHIP) is taken in just over half (53%) of leagues.
Meanwhile, there are perfectly capable players that are still available in more than half of leagues out there: Luke Scott (.333, 11 HR, 29 RBI, 0 SB, 21 R), owned in 39% of leagues, John Baker (.268, 6, 19, 0, 26), a producing catcher only owned in 38% of leagues, Joel Pineiro (5 W, 0 Sv, 25 K, 3.86 ERA, 1.24 WHIP), 20%, and Scott Hairston (.321, 6 HR, 21 RBI, 5 SB, 17 R), at 11%, a great steal in NL-only leagues.
We’ve reached the point in the season where a name should not be enough for an owner to keep a player on their roster. Ortiz, Vlad Guerrero (.226, 1, 3, 0, 4), Francisco Liriano (2 W, 0 Sv, 50 K, 6.60 ERA, 1.62 WHIP) and Scott Kazmir (4, 0, 35, 7.69, 1.95) should not be taking up space on more than 80% of leagues’ rosters when there are plenty of quality players still sitting out there being unused.
So, can you upgrade your bottom-dwelling team?
The answer depends on the type of league in which you play. If you are in a mixed league with 10 or fewer teams, this is an easy task. Drop the under-achieving players and snatch up the hotter players that fill those roles. It’s like shopping at Target during a store-wide sale with a $100 gift certificate – you’re going to find something at a reasonable price to take home and it won’t cost you a thing.
However, if you’re in an NL- or AL-only league (as I am), the task becomes much tougher. It’s also more difficult to decide whether to cut a player. While 6% of owners have determined that they can safely drop Manny Ramirez while he serves out his suspension, someone like me doesn’t have that luxury. So he sits on the pine, waiting for July 3 to roll around.
Fortunately, this is the time of the year where real baseball managers are hitting the same frustration levels that fantasy baseball owners have reached. Under-performing players are benched, demoted or released, and up-and-comers are called up from Triple-A or are bumped from a reserve role into the starting lineup. This is where persistence pays off. Constantly check Websites (especially this one) for player updates and roster changes. Use the “last month” and “last week” filters to look for a trend of a player on the rise – you might get a short-term shot in the arm. Scan the waiver wire for call-ups.
You see, you might have had designs on taking the head cheerleader to the prom, but just because she’s “washing her hair,” there’s no reason you can’t find another date who’s true prom queen material. So hit the panic button, dump the dead weight and start carefully rebuilding your team – it might be just a couple key players, but believe me, it could pay off. Now is the time in which seasons are won.
Did You Know…?
Five shortstops scored at least 100 runs (including Marco Scutaro)?
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