The War Room – Drafting at the Turn
March 28, 2010
So the draft order is finally set and you are drafting at the turn (either first or last). Is there anything you should do differently than if you were drafting in the middle of the order? The answer is yes. I’ll tell you why.
Think Ahead
In your typical twelve team league, managers who draft near the middle of each round have the flexibility to be able to stick fairly close to the default rankings, maybe reaching just a little at times to secure the player they want. The reason is, they only have to calculate nabbing the best player over the next 12 or so picks. A manager drafting in the #1 or #12 slot will be forced to see 22 names go by before he gets to pick again. That means what would normally look like a reach to someone drafting at the #6 slot may actually not be a reach at all to someone at #12. The “turn” manager needs to see into the future and realize who may not be there when his turn comes around again.
The Temptation
The temptation at the turn will be to limit yourself to drafting the 2 guys you like within the next 5-6 ranked players available. After all you want to get the best bang for your buck right? Of course, but that isn’t necessarily the way to get it. While you are limiting your view to the next few guys in the rankings a key positional need may go unnoticed 20 or so picks down the line.
For example, in the writer’s/fans draft I picked 1st. By my next pick Utley and Kinsler had gone, leaving Brandon Phillips as the best 2nd baseman available according to my personal rankings. I picked at 24/25 and Phillips wasn’t set to go until pick 35. Wouldn’t taking Phillips at 24 be an 11 pick reach? Isn’t it crazy to pass up guys like Victor Martinez, Mark Reynolds, Kevin Youkilis, and Ryan Zimmerman for Brandon Phillips? Consider…
The Reality
Over the next 22 picks Pedroia, Zobrist, Phillips, and Cano were all expected to go according to the Yahoo default rankings. The second baseman pool was set to plummet leaving Brian Roberts as the next best 2nd baseman. According to my valuations that would mean an astonishing $19 drop in value at a scarce position. In addition, I could afford to pass up guys like Youkilis, Reynolds and Zimmerman because Aramis Ramirez was set to be available by my next pick. To put it mathematically Phillips + A. Ramirez were of more value to me than Youkilis/ Reynolds/ Zimmerman + B. Roberts.
The Principle, Not the Player
Please note, I’m just using Phillips as an example. You may not agree with my valuation of him. Even so the principle remains the same. If you are picking at the turn and have a top valued player on your draft board who is set to disappear in the next 22 picks, be bold and grab him. You may take some jeers from the peanut gallery. They will point out all of that talent you overlooked and left on the table. Just smile and understand that if you did your homework and valued your players right, you will be the one laughing come season’s end.
FB 101’s 411: When drafting at the turn plan two rounds ahead. Take into consideration what positions will take the biggest value hits before you pick again. Scout out your two “must have” players from that group. Don’t be afraid to take your highest valued player 10 or more picks before his default rank. Why? He won’t be there for you next time around.
To Be(lieve) or Not to Be(lieve) . . . the Hype. That is the Question
March 27, 2010
What do the following names have in common: Alex Gordon, Delmon Young, Brandon Wood, Jeremy Hermida, Joel Guzman, Andy Marte, Greg Miller, Jesse Foppert, Drew Henson, and Roger Salkeld? You probably guessed it – over the past ten years or so all were at the top of Baseball America’s list of top 100 prospects. More importantly, all were fantasy busts.
Here are two basic equations to keep in mind: hype = increased cost. Hype does not necessarily = good production. And the hype is often loudest for hometown prospects. New Yorkers know what I’m talking about. Players like Alex Ochoa, Shawn Abner, Alex Escobar, and Hensley “Bam Bam” Muelens all were portrayed as future Hall of Famers, yet would be lucky to work as the bat boy for a major league team today.
So what’s a fantasy baseball owner to do? Pass on a guy like Jason Heyward who could be a perennial all-star, or pay a premium based on his hype and pray to whatever deity you observe that he is the real deal? Is Heyward the next Manny Ramirez or the next Luis Medina? What about Strasburg? Will he rival Johan Santana as a top tier pitcher in your draft in 2011, or will he be viewed in the same vain as Tom Gorzelanny, a former top prospect of the Pirates?
Here are some guidelines you may find helpful.
Non-Keeper League
If your league does not permit keepers, it is usually wise to stay away from rookies in the early to mid rounds of a draft, particularly if you are in a deep mixed league where there is plenty of talent available. There are two reasons. First, rookies tend to be overvalued. Second, your goal is to win this year and rookies are simply not as reliable as proven major league talent.
Take Heyward as an example. Last year in the minors he smacked 17 homers, and swiped 10 bases, with an average well north of .300 in time split mostly between Single and Double A. Let’s assume he produces the same stats this year in the majors – far from a safe presumption for someone who has only 173 at-bats above Single A. Is it worth rolling the dice? Sure, he could hit .315 with 30 homers and do a Ryan Braun imitation. But given the long line of failed prospects, he could also hit .240 with 13 homers and find himself back in the minor leagues just like Chris Davis in 2009.
Instead of overpaying on a rookie, perhaps it makes more sense to draft a safe, but unglamorous, option like Vernon Wells. With Wells you know you’ll get a decent average, double digit power and steals. Or someone like Raul Ibanez who always hits 20+ homers with about 100 RBI’s and a good average. Similar arguments can be made about players like Hunter Pence, Brad Hawpe, Alex Rios, Josh Willingham, or Jason Kubel.
Truth be told, I think Heyward and many of the other top prospects this year will be stars eventually. But perhaps not in their first season. If you think Heyward is a “sure thing”, keep in mind that other former top prospects like Jay Bruce, Colby Rasmus, and Xavier Nady were also considered “can’t miss” prospects who struggled in their first couple years in the Big leagues too. Matt Wieters was the “next big thing” in 2009, but he hit only nine homers in his debut season.
It often takes some major league seasoning before having a breakthrough year. Take Carlos Quentin as an example. Quentin was a big time prospect for the Diamondbacks and finally got his chance in 2006 and 2007. He hit a whopping .253 and .214 with a combined 14 homers in his first two seasons in the majors. He did not exactly justify all the hype. But, as we all know, he had a breakthrough year in 2008, hitting .288 with 36 homers and 100 RBI’s. Patience truly can be a virtue.
I do not suggest steering clear of rookies all together. In NL and AL-only leagues, rookies – particularly those with starting jobs – are often very helpful. We all know the stories of the lucky SOB who picked up Ryan Braun a few years ago and rode his bat to a championship. But it is also a question of valuation. For example, do you prefer Stephen Strasburg or Carlos Zambrano? Assuming they are about the same cost, I take Zambrano because I know what I’m getting, and it’s pretty good. Strasburg may still be worth owning – particularly in an NL-only league, but I view players like him as a risk instead of a team anchor. For every rookie who turns into Johan Santana, there is a rookie who turns into Ben McDonald and is out of baseball a few short seasons later. It is often better to wait until the end of the draft to gamble on players lacking a major league track record.
Keeper Leagues
In a keeper league, there are three basic strategies to follow. First, win this year and to hell with all future years. Second, rebuild and play solely for future years. Third, have your cake and eat it too by playing for this year while simultaneously positioning your team for glory in the future.
If your approach is the second or third strategy, a highly touted rookie could be a good play in the mid rounds on draft day. Many will do well – eventually, and if you can withstand some growing pains in 2010, you’ll have a solid player at a relatively low price upon which to build in 2011 and beyond. But if you are playing for this season, it may be better to go with a grizzled veteran whose production can be counted on, unless you are in a shallow league or it is the end of the draft and you want to take a flier on someone with more upside.
FB101’s 411: Don’t overpay for rookies in their first year as they are often outperformed by more established, but less glamorous, veterans.
The War Room- Default Rankings: Your Secret Draft Weapon
March 26, 2010
As many of you prepare for your drafts in the next week or so, here is one tip you might still have time to implement to come out on top.
The key to drafting is not simply pulling the trigger on the highest valued player available on your draft sheet. The key may be getting your highest valued player one round later and taking your second highest valued player this round. The trick to finding value on draft day lies in the disparities between your draft rankings and the rankings of the website (Yahoo/ CBS etc.) you are drafting on.
The Myth of ADP’s
In order to find value, many of you may be using ADP or “Average Draft Positions” to do so. There are many ADP’s available from many sources. Mock Draft Central has many ADP lists and each fantasy website has their own as well. Here’s the problem with ADP’s. Let’s take Yahoo for instance.( I’ll use them as the example throughout the article, though you could apply this to any fantasy website.) Yahoo’s ADP’s come from the thousands of mock drafts which take place on their website daily. During mock drafts you are going to have a lot of people experimenting with different strategies, taking players they wouldn’t normally take, etc. Sometimes I’ve even seen guys (most likely unsupervised 12 year olds) come in and completely ruin the mock drafts for kicks, drafting Willy Mo Pena 1st, for instance followed by a big “LOL” in the chat room. They then follow up by picking a cavalcade of guys who may not even be in the majors anymore. Needless to say, this isn’t good for accuracy.
In addition the ADP’s are constantly fluctuating daily as more and more mock drafts take place, so keeping up and adjusting to the latest ADP’s may be difficult. On the flip side, some players who may have been taken fairly early over a number of months, solidifying their low (good) ADP rank, may suddenly become undraftable, but their ADP will take time to fall. Take Joe Nathan for instance. He will not be taken in any drafts from now on (if he does, send me the name of the drafter so I can ask him to join a money league), however he may still be stuck with a good ADP, throwing you off for planning purposes.
Another problem with ADP’s are that they are based on averages. If group A drafts player 1 at #100 and group B drafts him at #130 his ADP will end up at #115. However, it may happen that this player almost never gets taken exactly at #115 in a real draft. The reasons for this are various. It may happen that during a particular round or two of a draft, a lot of good SP’s and OF are scheduled to be available. Let’s say player 1 is a closer. He might be taken at 100, but if he isn’t, managers will probably try to gobble up the good SP’s and OF’s in the next two rounds before he gets a look again at 130.
Finally ADP’s are going to be compiled from many different types of drafts. Yahoo alone has 6 different types of mock drafts. Roto 8,10, & 12 teams and H2H 8,10, & 12 teams. This means ADP’s are combining average draft positions from all sorts of different mock drafts where managers are planning out their drafts in 6 different ways. The result may end up being an inaccurate mess for your particular draft.
The Answer?
The answer is simple but it works. Ignore the ADP’s. (GASP!) Yes, ignore them. Well, not completely. (I’ll get to that in a second) But for the most part they are not the most reliable tool at your managerial disposal.
What is? The default rankings for your particular fantasy website.
Why, you ask? I’ll tell you. What order of players is listed on your Yahoo draft screen come draft time? You guessed it. They are all pre-sorted by “overall rank” or (O-Rank) set by Yahoo. The most valuable tool you have in planning your draft is sitting right there in front of you (and everybody) but few people know how to take full advantage of it. Why is it valuable? Because of the psychological power it possesses over most of your opponents. Unless you draft in a league of 11 other studied, researched, and eagle-eyed experts who are incapable of psychological influence, 9 times out of 10 your opponents are going basically follow the Yahoo script (with some aberrations of course). It carries with it a certain artificial “authority” that most ordinary drafters are unusually susceptible to. It especially comes in handy when the draft clock is getting to zero and you need to pick somebody. Nine times out of ten, drafters are just going to click on the next highest O-Rank on the board.
The O-Rank is also valuable because it is relatively stable. Yahoo makes some adjustments to it over time but you should be fine checking for changes every two weeks and right before draft day. Major injuries to players typically result in Yahoo adjusting their O-Rank relatively quickly. For example Joe Nathan’s O-Rank was knocked down to the 900’s soon after his season ending injury. It is also valuable because no matter what type of league you play in, the O-Rank will be the gold standard managers will draft off of. Even the Yahoo ADP’s, in the end, used the O-Rank as their baseline.
The Yahoo overall rank order for hitters and pitchers combined is a little hard to find. You aren’t going to find it in the regular player pool because there the pitchers and hitters are separated. What you are going to have to do is get to the screen where you pre-rank your players. Then choose the setting that lists all players. All players will be neatly listed in numeric order. Use this as your template.
The Strategy
The key then, is taking your rankings list, matching it up against the Yahoo O-Ranks and looking for value plays. Once you do this, your draft strategy starts to take shape. Take special note of players you have ranked highly that Yahoo is not fond of. For instance in my drafts this year Yahoo had Nelson Cruz ranked as the 19th best OF and #63 overall. I had Cruz ranked as the 6th best OF and #19 overall. Using this to my advantage I held off drafting Cruz until pick 49 in one league (I drafted 12th) and pick 60 in another (I drafted 1st). In the meantime I spent my early picks grabbing guys I had ranked very highly and Yahoo did as well. For instance I had Cano ranked #44 overall and Yahoo had him ranked #43 so I took him on cue in one of my drafts.
When to Use ADP’s?
As I said before, ADP’s do have some value. Towards the later rounds of the draft, managers tend to break from the Yahoo script a little bit and fish for their favorite sleepers. Aroldis Chapman for instance, or Juan Pierre, or Martin Prado. If you have some favorite sleepers, and they are not O-ranked at a draftable number by Yahoo (something beyond the 230’s), and you see these guys going in your mocks, then is the time to check the Yahoo ADP to get a gauge on approximately which late round to jump on these guys.
FB 101’s 411: Don’t rely on ADP’s to plan your draft. Use the default rankings everyone will see on draft day. Then look for disparities between these rankings and your own rankings to plan your draft. Only use ADP’s to help gauge when to take sleepers in the late rounds.
Strategy Zone – H2H Draft Edition
March 25, 2010
Yesterday evening I participated in my first snake draft of the season and thought I would discuss the strategy I employed. The league has 10 teams and uses a mixed H2H format with simplified rosters and rules (e.g. no minimum innings pitched requirement). Every team gets one of each fielding position (C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, OF, OF, OF) plus two utility spots, eight pitchers (two starters, two relievers, and four of either), and four reserves.
There are two main options for how scoring works in an H2H league. The first option is your team gets one point per category won. For example, if your team is playing mine in Week One and, assuming a 5×5 format, I win seven categories to your three, I get seven points and you get three – one for each category won. The second option works like fantasy football where you get a win or loss per week. So, in the above example I would get one “win” (and you one “loss”) instead of seven points. The format has important strategic implications, which I shall discuss shortly.
Since it is a friendly league with no money on the line, I decided on a high risk,-high reward strategy. In short, I ignored starting pitching and focused my pitching staff on closers. I had two goals:
(1) Get a great offensive squad, and
(2) Win three of the five pitching categories most weeks (saves, ERA, WHIP)
Underlying the strategy are several assumptions.
First, relief pitchers are not valued as highly as starting pitchers. Accordingly, I could focus more on offense in the early rounds of the draft while other teams felt the need to expend picks on starters.
In conjunction with this strategy, I focused primarily on Runs, Homeruns, and Runs Batted in, but did not ignore steals. I have several terrible batting average hitters, but also some really good ones. Since stats fluctuate week-to-week, I expect to compete in batting average despite having some liabilities there.
Second, closers – particularly the elite ones – typically have a much better ERA and WHIP than starting pitchers, and clearly will beat them in saves. As a result, I hope to win three out of the five pitching categories each week.
The league rules require two starting pitchers. At first, I looked for relief pitchers that also qualified as starters, but I didn’t see any reliable options. Instead, I drafted two starters who typically have a decent ERA and WHIP with strong K’s. If a team I am playing against has a weak starting staff, I may activate my two starters to compete in K’s or win’s, but more likely they will ride the bench.
A word about how the rules of the league guided my thinking. The strategy would be foolhardy if, in the above example, my team would accumulate seven points instead of one win for winning seven of the ten categories in a week. Indeed, throwing a category or two would put me at significant disadvantage because the most points I could ever accumulate in a week would be eight, whereas other teams could, in some weeks, get a full ten. But in my league format all I need to do is consistently win a majority of the categories. If I win a majority of the categories, *snap* I get a win. In other words, a 6-4 victory counts just as much as a 10-0 victory.
Here is the team I drafted:
C – Victor Martinez
1B – Kevin Youkilis
2B – Dan Uggla
SS – Hanley Ramirez
3B – Mark Reynolds
OF – Adam Dunn
OF – Shane Victorino
OF – Raul Ibanez
U – Lance Berkman
U – Carlos Quentin
SP – Aaron Harang
SP – Ted Lilly
RP – Jonathan Papelbon
RP – Joakim Soria
P – Heath Bell
P – Francisco Rodriguez
P – Trevor Hoffman
P – Bobby Jenks
Bench – Carlos Beltran
Bench – Juan Pierre
Bench – Drew Stubbs
Bench – J.P. Howell
As you can see, I have great power and runs, some speed, and a few players that can hit for average. My bench gives me flexibility – Beltran is a great option when healthy, Pierre provides speed in the weeks where I need it, and Stubbs is a potential sleeper who could hit 10 homers and steal 30 bases if the stars align. My pitching staff has several elite closers and nobody on the roster should hurt my ERA or WHIP.
Only time will tell if this team can win, but I was able to follow my strategy pretty much to a T.
Again, it is a high-risk, high-reward strategy. About 20 years ago I employed the same strategy in a 4×4 Roto auction league (before there were minimum innings pitched requirements) and had great success. Hopefully, dusting off an oldie but goodie will work out this time. I’ll send periodic updates throughout the season.
Feel free to share your thoughts on my team in the comments section.
FB101’s 411: Use the rules and format of your league to your advantage
Keeper Corner: Rookies that can make a difference
March 23, 2010
One of the keys to success in your keeper or dynasty leagues is knowing which rookies to target that can both impact your team this year and be mainstays for the future. If you can pick one or two of these players correctly every year you easily will become the powerhouse of your league.
Every year there are a few rookies that get hyped up so much that you don’t need us to tell you everyone loves them. This year those players are Jason Heyward, Aroldis Chapman and Stephen Strasburg. When they go in your league drafts varies but there is sure to be someone who picks them in a standard re-draft league before the 10th round and in a new keeper league in one of the first three rounds. Heyward is off to a great spring and is almost forcing Atlanta to bring him to the majors for opening day. Chapman’s 100 mph fastball has been unhittable this spring and the Reds seem willing to let him come right up and pitch. Strasburg, however, will be starting in the minors to work on a few things before he gets the call-up. Due to the high draft slots where these players are going, it is very hard to recommend picking them in your drafts.
The majority of times the rookie players who prove they are major league ready in spring training will not start in the majors in April. However, as soon as they put in the required time in the minors to delay arbitration for another year they are quick call ups in late May and early June. If you can grab one of these players late in a draft and stash them on your bench for a few months until they get called up, you can get great value for this year and the many years to follow.
Let’s take a quick look at six players who can help you later in 2010:
Kyle Drabek – Pitching is always needed and with Toronto in rebuilding mode, Drabek will be up sooner than later. Last year, while in the Phillies organization, he had a 3.19 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP, while posting a record of 12-3 with 150 strikeouts. Drabek may only need a few months in AA/AAA in 2010 before getting the call to Toronto who are clearly in rebuilding mode.
Carlos Santana – This Indian catcher is bat ready and just needs some work handling pitchers and calling games. His 23 homers and .290 average in AA last year makes it easy to see him why it will be hard to keep him in minors much longer.
Josh Bell – The Oriole 3b prospect delighted scouts last fall in the Arizona league and has done nothing this spring to show he is not ready for the majors. The only thing holding him back is a Garret Atkins’ non existent bat and then the subsequent switch of Miguel Tejada to first base.
Mike Stanton – Number three on many top prospects lists, the Florida outfielder is just about ready to knock Cody Ross back to 4th outfielder status. His power bat will be warmly received in both the Marlin lineup and your fantasy team as soon as the arbitration date passes.
Desmond Jennings – 52 stolen bases, 12 home runs and .300+ average last year in AA and AAA. Don’t let a slow spring with slight wrist strain deter you from being high on this future Rays outfielder.
Drew Storen – The Nationals are just as high on Storen for the long term as they are on Strasburg, except Storen is a closer. The more Matt Capps struggles, which he does by mid season every year, the quicker Storen will be up to save the day.
I love playing in keeper leagues and dynasty leagues because you can grab guys like this today and watch them develop into the stars of tomorrow. Being able to get them at the best value when they are young and somewhat under the radar is your best bet. So take a chance on one or two of them on your teams with deep benches now so you don’t have to worry about what your waiver pick or FAAB budget is latter when they get called up.
FB101’s 411: Don’t grab an overvalued Heyward, get an undervalued Stanton or Jennings later to stash instead.
On The Shelf – Reyes Back to Baseball Activities
March 23, 2010
Hey there everybody… long time, no nothing. Yeah, I know. Last year around this time, if you remember, I was talking about the white sand beaches of Aruba and a guy named Johnny who would smoke cigars and would get me a spot under a hut – what can I say, I’m pasty white and need, like, SPF 1000 sunscreen.
Ever wonder how or why people in your league just seem to know about that special “someone” to pick up in lieu of THAT injured player on your roster who was going to lead your fantasy team to victory this year? Me too!
Just so happens that it’s not rocket science. It does happen to be a matter of paying attention and understanding what managers’ contingency plans are. Once in a while, it’s just dumb luck. Frankly, I’d rather be good than lucky. Take a look at Albert’s article… kinda says alot….
A large part of understanding who to pick up, who to drop, and when to do it when an injury is involved has to do with understanding the injury itself. A shoulder strain in a DH may be a little less likely to impact your fantasy life than a shoulder strain in your ace starter. Knowing a player’s past medical history is key in knowing just how long you are going to be without that player, and how long you are going to need his replacement.
So, onto Mr. Reyes. Today, we’ll talk about a guy who, before last year, stole an average of 64.5 bases yearly from 2005-2008, scored 113.25 runs over those 4 years, has a career average of .286, and did not play any fewer than 153 games during that four year period of time.
Last year… different story.
Last year, Reyes was limited to 36 games with a smorgasbord of lower leg injuries, the most devastating of which was a torn right hamstring tendon. Needless to say, a speed guy needs healthy hamstrings. He admits to trying to come back too early last year to help the hapless (helpless, choose your “-less” words) Mets, and required offseason surgery to remove scar tissue from around that torn hammy. Adding to his hamstring woes, Reyes was diagnosed this winter with hyperactive thyroid, a condition that has since been alleviated with rest and a modified diet.
The perennial top 10 pick has dropped in ADP from last season to 45.5 in Yahoo! drafts this season – a juicy late 4th round pick. History shows us that if a player thinks they are healthy and says they are healthy, fantasy buyer beware. I don’t think this is the case with Jose Reyes, however. Prior to his hyperactive thyroid, he was running at full speed, including sprints from a standstill, which can closely be equated to stolen bases.
While I don’t see a complete return to his 2006 Silver Slugger status, I can honestly see Reyes putting up .280, 100 R, 60 RBI, 10 HR, and 50 SB’s over about 145-150 games. Not too bad for a guy you can get in the 4th round of your draft, huh?
FB101 “411″: Don’t discount guys coming off injuries. Know what happened, what they did to fix it, if they are ready, and draft them accordingly.
Sleepers – NL Batters Edition
March 20, 2010
Trying to find premium talent at a clearance level price? Look no further. Below are three sleepers to consider obtaining on draft day for your NL-only league. They all have one thing in common: great production in limited playing time in 2009, with the expectation of increased playing time (and thus, increased production) in 2010. Without further adieu, I recommend the following players for NL-only leagues:
1) Carlos Gonzalez (OF, COL)
A former top prospect for Oakland, the now 24-year old Gonzalez came to Colorado as part of the 2008 Matt Holliday/Huston Street deal. Gonzalez struggled in 2008 in limited playing time in Oakland, but finally got a chance to prove himself in 2009 with the Rockies. His final line was .284-13-29-16-53 in only 278 at-bats. Multiply that by two, and it’s a sweet fantasy season.
Gonzalez will be starting in left field for the Rockies this season and should amass 500-600 at-bats. His minor league statistics indicate that he has serious power with the potential for a high average, so buy him now and reap the rewards for years to come.
2) Garrett Jones (1B/OF, PIT)
Jones was a nice surprise for many NL-only fantasy baseball managers in 2009. He walloped 21 homers in only 314 at-bats, stole 10 bases, and still hit for a solid average of .293. Jones was written off by some scouts as too old for a prospect at 28 years of age although he did get 77 less than impressive at-bats for the Twins in ‘07), but that did not appear to phase him.
He is likely to start the season in the outfield for the Pirates, but should also get a number of at-bats at first base, which will only increase his value. His minor league stats also show great power, but don’t expect the batting average or steals to remain as good in 2010.
3) Casey McGehee (2B/3B MIL)
Many baseball scouts were expecting the Brewers to have a hot-hitting third basemen in 2009, but they were expecting it to be Mat Gamel — not Casey McGehee. Nonetheless, when Billy Hall floundered, McGehee got the call up from the minors and didn’t look back. McGehee hit .301 with 16 homers, and 66 RBI’s in only 355 at-bats. He routinely hit for a high average in the minors, but the power was somewhat of a surprise. At this point, only time will tell if he is more of a 10-12 homer guy, which is what he was in the minors, or if he can develop into a 20+ homer player. Either way, he should get plenty of at-bats this season as the starter at third base, and to spell Richie Weeks at second base, and could rack up the RBI’s — especially with guys like Fielder and Braun hitting in front of him.
FB101’s 411: Look for players like Gonzalez, Jones, and McGehee who are relatively young, did well in limited playing time, and are expected to get more playing time in 2010.
Keeper Corner: Drafting Strategies
March 18, 2010
We are starting a new column here at Fantasy Baseball 101 that will focus on the items that are more important to keeper and dynasty leagues. Let’s get started by discussing five basic rules that will help you with your keeper/dynasty drafting strategies.
For those that are not familiar: a Keeper league is when each fantasy team keeps a certain number of players on its roster each season and re-drafts the remaining number of players to complete its roster at the beginning of the season; and a Dynasty league is a when each fantasy team keeps their entire roster from the previous season.
Rule 1: Know your league (Depth)
Your decisions of drafting a player or keeping a player are always influenced by the depth of your league. If your league only keeps 3 players each year your strategies are very different than a dynasty league with a 15 player deep minor league system. If you are only keeping 5 players each year, then you enter each year with two goals: 1) getting the five best players you can for the long term and 2) filling in all the gaps with the best players you can to win the league. If you are in dynasty league or a much deeper keeper league you enter each season looking for players that will backup or improve upon your starters as they age.
The depth of your league lets you know who will be available from year to year. More importantly it tells you who you need to target in your pre-draft research toward. If your 12 team league keeps 5 players you know the first player taken in your draft will be the equivalent of a player in a re-draft league with an ADP of 60, so don’t spend any time thinking about getting Adrian Gonzales or Brandon Phillips cause they will be keepers.
Rule 2: Draft for Balance
One of the worst feelings in a keeper league is when you get an injury to a star player and your season is lost. If you have a team of balanced players it is much easier to handle injuries. Simply put you can almost never replace a 40 homer hitter like Ryan Howard with another 40 homer hitter or a 50 steals guy with another 50 steals midway through the season. However it is if you have a team of 20-20 players you can almost always find a 20-10 or a 10-20 player somewhere on your bench, via waivers, on via a trade which will not hurt you overall as much.
Rule 3: Rookies are still rookies – Play for this year
We all love to play keeper and dynasty leagues so we can say we had that star player as a rookie but I would always rather win my league. When drafting or acquiring players don’t just look to the future. Get what will help you win now. For example, last year many people were picking Matt Wieters in the first 5 rounds and he only played half a season in the majors. Imagine how much better your team would have been if you had picked a veteran Johnny Damon or Torri Hunter. Don’t be afraid to pick an older player if he will help you win your league. Worse case scenario, even if you figure out you are out of the race to win your league come August, you can always trade that productive veteran to another owner for a young stud to give them that extra push toward the championship and you a jump start toward next year.
Rule 4: Fill in the gaps
Draft a complete team that can sustain injuries and keep playing for each year. Your best or worst picks every year in a keeper league comes in the late rounds of a draft or off the waiver wire. How well you fill in the gaps every year will depend on how well you do in the long term of your league.
You are bound to have an injury at some point during the year to your star keepers. A star player is never fully replaceable but if you can at least fill the gap with someone decent who will not kill your production level. Try to get players that qualify at multiple positions so you can fill in gaps when that injury occurs. If you play with Corner Infield or Middle Infield positions, fill that slot with someone who can fill in for both at first and third or second and short. So when you have the injury occur you can move them up. It will be easier to fill the CI or MI slot with a player that helps you in your weakest category. Another option is to target a super utility player like Sean Rodriquez who can fill in anywhere for your bench when you need him.
Rule 5: Know your league!
Know your league and the other owners. Some leagues value closers, some value rookies. If the opportunity presents itself grab that extra player that will be good trade bait if your league likes to trade. When your league mates zig prepare to zag. Is there a loop hole in your league settings? Take advantage! In one of my leagues it is a great advantage if you can find a closer who also qualifies as starting pitcher so you can start an extra closer, so I look for that every year. In a keeper league it is always important to get value wherever and with whomever you draft because that value will pay off in the long term.
Keeper and dynasty leagues are for the long haul. If you play in an established league you can’t win them overnight. Knowing your league, and creating a balanced attack of superstars, rookies and multi-positional players which will allow you to withstand injuries and be competitive year after year.
FB 101’s 411: Know your league! League settings can vary and can present an easy advantage.
h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before the Season Even Starts IX
March 15, 2010
Maximizing every drop of value in every pick is hugely important. Taking a player in the fifth round that you could just as easily have taken in the sixth round is a major mistake. To avoid this, you need to know all about Average Draft Position (ADP). Read more
h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before the Season Even Starts VII
March 12, 2010
Maximizing every drop of value in every pick is hugely important. Taking a player in the fifth round that you could just as easily have taken in the sixth round is a major mistake. To avoid this, you need to know all about Average Draft Position (ADP). Read more
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Billy Butler hit the second most doubles (51)?
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