Kerry Wood Out! Chris Perez In??
March 20, 2010
Fantasy owners who are eagerly preparing for their live drafts or auctions need to be aware of the recent injury to Kerry Woods, closer incumbent and born again fantasy option.
“An MRI revealed a moderate strain in Kerry Wood’s upper back that looks to keep him out for a minimum of six weeks,” the Associated Press reports. Having attained near Smoltz-esque fame for time spent on the bench recovering from this injury or that, astute fantasy GM’s should expect a protracted absence from the closer gig.
Meanwhile, the jury is out on whether seemingly-veteran youngster Chris Perez can handle the reins while (and perhaps after) Wood is out. I suspect that, if healthy, Perez will run with the job and perhaps bumps Wood to setup duty or long relief if he finally capitalizes on the considerable talent that clearly remains.
2009 Numbers – 4.32 ERA and 1.08 WHIP with more than a K/IP. Not exactly Mariano-esque, but nothing to scoff at given Woods’ considerable difficulties at shutting down the game last season. Perez is a stock on the rise - be aware…but don’t overpay or draft!
Sleepers – NL Batters Edition
March 20, 2010
Trying to find premium talent at a clearance level price? Look no further. Below are three sleepers to consider obtaining on draft day for your NL-only league. They all have one thing in common: great production in limited playing time in 2009, with the expectation of increased playing time (and thus, increased production) in 2010. Without further adieu, I recommend the following players for NL-only leagues:
1) Carlos Gonzalez (OF, COL)
A former top prospect for Oakland, the now 24-year old Gonzalez came to Colorado as part of the 2008 Matt Holliday/Huston Street deal. Gonzalez struggled in 2008 in limited playing time in Oakland, but finally got a chance to prove himself in 2009 with the Rockies. His final line was .284-13-29-16-53 in only 278 at-bats. Multiply that by two, and it’s a sweet fantasy season.
Gonzalez will be starting in left field for the Rockies this season and should amass 500-600 at-bats. His minor league statistics indicate that he has serious power with the potential for a high average, so buy him now and reap the rewards for years to come.
2) Garrett Jones (1B/OF, PIT)
Jones was a nice surprise for many NL-only fantasy baseball managers in 2009. He walloped 21 homers in only 314 at-bats, stole 10 bases, and still hit for a solid average of .293. Jones was written off by some scouts as too old for a prospect at 28 years of age although he did get 77 less than impressive at-bats for the Twins in ‘07), but that did not appear to phase him.
He is likely to start the season in the outfield for the Pirates, but should also get a number of at-bats at first base, which will only increase his value. His minor league stats also show great power, but don’t expect the batting average or steals to remain as good in 2010.
3) Casey McGehee (2B/3B MIL)
Many baseball scouts were expecting the Brewers to have a hot-hitting third basemen in 2009, but they were expecting it to be Mat Gamel — not Casey McGehee. Nonetheless, when Billy Hall floundered, McGehee got the call up from the minors and didn’t look back. McGehee hit .301 with 16 homers, and 66 RBI’s in only 355 at-bats. He routinely hit for a high average in the minors, but the power was somewhat of a surprise. At this point, only time will tell if he is more of a 10-12 homer guy, which is what he was in the minors, or if he can develop into a 20+ homer player. Either way, he should get plenty of at-bats this season as the starter at third base, and to spell Richie Weeks at second base, and could rack up the RBI’s — especially with guys like Fielder and Braun hitting in front of him.
FB101’s 411: Look for players like Gonzalez, Jones, and McGehee who are relatively young, did well in limited playing time, and are expected to get more playing time in 2010.
Fantasyland the Movie
March 19, 2010
Whenever I meet someone who has a similar passion for fantasy sports as myself, one of the questions of conversation that always seems to come up is “Have you read Fantasyland?” As far as I am concerned its required reading.
The Book was written by Sam Walker, who as a senior writer for the Wall Street Journal, participate as a novice in Tout Wars, which is considered the grandaddy of all expert fantasy baseball leagues during the 2004 season. If you haven’t read Fantasyland run to the bookstore now or you can find it in the recommend reading list on the bottom right of our homepage. It’s a hilarious account of his season. Its both quick reading and insightful to the many levels of both strategy and obsession that a fantasy owner will consider as we play the game.
The book was such a success, that they decided to make a documentaray movie about it. So in 2008 they filmed it with a new average joe fantasy player named Jed Latkin. It is just being released today, March 19th over at Snag Films.com. Check it out HERE
The movie’s facebook fan page has a movie description which reads “Fantasyland is a journey to the wild side of Fantasy baseball. Watch as one fantasy obsessed player attempts to convince actual Major League Baseball players to play well for his fantasy squad as he takes on a league of experts called TOUT WARS.
You can also find more info at www.fantasylandfilm.com
If you watch it, let us know you think in the comments below:
FB 101’s 411: We play the game cause we enjoy it!
Keeper Corner: Drafting Strategies
March 18, 2010
We are starting a new column here at Fantasy Baseball 101 that will focus on the items that are more important to keeper and dynasty leagues. Let’s get started by discussing five basic rules that will help you with your keeper/dynasty drafting strategies.
For those that are not familiar: a Keeper league is when each fantasy team keeps a certain number of players on its roster each season and re-drafts the remaining number of players to complete its roster at the beginning of the season; and a Dynasty league is a when each fantasy team keeps their entire roster from the previous season.
Rule 1: Know your league (Depth)
Your decisions of drafting a player or keeping a player are always influenced by the depth of your league. If your league only keeps 3 players each year your strategies are very different than a dynasty league with a 15 player deep minor league system. If you are only keeping 5 players each year, then you enter each year with two goals: 1) getting the five best players you can for the long term and 2) filling in all the gaps with the best players you can to win the league. If you are in dynasty league or a much deeper keeper league you enter each season looking for players that will backup or improve upon your starters as they age.
The depth of your league lets you know who will be available from year to year. More importantly it tells you who you need to target in your pre-draft research toward. If your 12 team league keeps 5 players you know the first player taken in your draft will be the equivalent of a player in a re-draft league with an ADP of 60, so don’t spend any time thinking about getting Adrian Gonzales or Brandon Phillips cause they will be keepers.
Rule 2: Draft for Balance
One of the worst feelings in a keeper league is when you get an injury to a star player and your season is lost. If you have a team of balanced players it is much easier to handle injuries. Simply put you can almost never replace a 40 homer hitter like Ryan Howard with another 40 homer hitter or a 50 steals guy with another 50 steals midway through the season. However it is if you have a team of 20-20 players you can almost always find a 20-10 or a 10-20 player somewhere on your bench, via waivers, on via a trade which will not hurt you overall as much.
Rule 3: Rookies are still rookies – Play for this year
We all love to play keeper and dynasty leagues so we can say we had that star player as a rookie but I would always rather win my league. When drafting or acquiring players don’t just look to the future. Get what will help you win now. For example, last year many people were picking Matt Wieters in the first 5 rounds and he only played half a season in the majors. Imagine how much better your team would have been if you had picked a veteran Johnny Damon or Torri Hunter. Don’t be afraid to pick an older player if he will help you win your league. Worse case scenario, even if you figure out you are out of the race to win your league come August, you can always trade that productive veteran to another owner for a young stud to give them that extra push toward the championship and you a jump start toward next year.
Rule 4: Fill in the gaps
Draft a complete team that can sustain injuries and keep playing for each year. Your best or worst picks every year in a keeper league comes in the late rounds of a draft or off the waiver wire. How well you fill in the gaps every year will depend on how well you do in the long term of your league.
You are bound to have an injury at some point during the year to your star keepers. A star player is never fully replaceable but if you can at least fill the gap with someone decent who will not kill your production level. Try to get players that qualify at multiple positions so you can fill in gaps when that injury occurs. If you play with Corner Infield or Middle Infield positions, fill that slot with someone who can fill in for both at first and third or second and short. So when you have the injury occur you can move them up. It will be easier to fill the CI or MI slot with a player that helps you in your weakest category. Another option is to target a super utility player like Sean Rodriquez who can fill in anywhere for your bench when you need him.
Rule 5: Know your league!
Know your league and the other owners. Some leagues value closers, some value rookies. If the opportunity presents itself grab that extra player that will be good trade bait if your league likes to trade. When your league mates zig prepare to zag. Is there a loop hole in your league settings? Take advantage! In one of my leagues it is a great advantage if you can find a closer who also qualifies as starting pitcher so you can start an extra closer, so I look for that every year. In a keeper league it is always important to get value wherever and with whomever you draft because that value will pay off in the long term.
Keeper and dynasty leagues are for the long haul. If you play in an established league you can’t win them overnight. Knowing your league, and creating a balanced attack of superstars, rookies and multi-positional players which will allow you to withstand injuries and be competitive year after year.
FB 101’s 411: Know your league! League settings can vary and can present an easy advantage.
Rockies’ Huston Street shut down…who’s the closer? UPDATE!
March 17, 2010
In what has become a painfully predictable annual occurrence, Rockies closer Huston Street is injured. Aside from the fact that his 2008 with the Athletics destroyed my hope for scoring saves points, Street is one of the least reliable – and one of my least favorite – closers in baseball. And today, he feels pain in his shoulder playing catch and is shut down, pending an MRI.
The obvious next choice is newly-signed reliever Rafael Betancourt…but he’s out with shoulder trouble too and manager Jim Tracy swears he’s an 8th inning-only guy. So that leaves the two-headed monster of Manuel Corpas and Franklin Morales. Both have closing experience (Corpas in 2007, Morales last September) but both are also boom-or-bust type pitchers who have had miserable springs. Come to think of it, Corpas has had a miserable two years (even though he was the Rockies closer for 2 weeks last April), having been unable to recapture his 2007 mojo after replacing Brian Fuentes on the way to the World Series. A converted starter, Morales took over last year after Street got hurt (really? Street got hurt?) and actually had a solid run as closer. He saved 6 games in 9 days before running into a rough patch, but did show that he had the ability to get the job done (or at least as well as any other B-level closer).
So what do you do? Well, nothing yet. In 2008, I drafted Cliff Lee and promptly cut him before the season started in favor of Miguel Batista who may or may not have been the Mariners closer that year. He wasn’t, I lost Cliff Lee, and learned a valuable lesson – don’t fish for a player who may be worthless by cutting a guy you just drafted. This is not your last chance to grab a closer, and these guys are really not that great.
FB101’s 411: Jim Tracy said today its Morales…so pick him up. Just don’t cut Cliff Lee for him, please.
Breaking News: Dukes out, Who Cares In
March 17, 2010
When I first heard that Elijah Dukes had been released earlier today, I was initially confused, because I didn’t realize he had been incarcerated. My confusion subsided when I realized that he had simply been cut by the Washington Nationals. Dukes (who did his best hitting domestically) was a Jim Bowden special; a high risk-high reward project that other general managers avoided. Although Dukes remained on the roster after Bowden was fired last year, it should not be a surprise that new Nats GM Mike Rizzo decided to go in another (or any other) direction.
When a starting position player is released this close to the season there are typically significant fantasy baseball implications. Not so here. Dukes has disappointed fantasy owners in the past, and should have been at or near the bottom of your draft board anyway. And the players who will replace him in the outfield? Justin Maxwell, Willie Harris and Roger Bernadina are draftable in only the deepest leagues (Maxwell flashes power every now and then, but has never shown any level of consistency).
That leaves the only two draftable Nats outfielders; LF Josh Willingham and CF Nyjer Morgan. Without a DH spot in the NL, the Nats can only give at bats to three outfielders a night. With Dukes in the mix, Nats manager Jim Riggleman would have had to sit one of his top 3 OFs in order to give a few ABs to one of his three backups. With Dukes out of the way, Maxwell, Harris and Bernadina should share RF duties, replacing Morgan or Willingham only occasionally, when a rest is needed. The Dukes release may only add 5-10 games (20-50 plate appearances) this year for Morgan and Willingham, but that should result in an extra 4 steals and 7 runs for Morgan (that would have put him above 45 steals and 80 runs scored last year, when he only had 509 plate appearances) and an extra 2-3 home runs, 6-7 RBI and 7 runs for Willingham (which would have given him 27 HR, 68 RBI and 77 runs last year, when he only had 488 plate appearances).
These additional stats don’t seem like much, but might be enough to move these players up one round near the middle or end of your draft. If you’ve already had your draft, Morgan will no longer be available (other than is shallow leagues), but perhaps Willingham would be a slight improvement over one of your bench OFs. Also, keep in mind that Morgan and Willingham did not log a full season of plate appearances last year. If they stay healthy in this less crowded OF, they could easily reach 600 plate appearances (or more) each, which would add another sprinkling of positive statistics for these two starting OFs.
FB 101’s 411: Limit your high-risk/high-reward players, and stock up on consistency. Consistent players can have breakout seasons too.
h2h Corner ~ Building Your Own Low Maintenance Fantasy League
March 17, 2010
Welcome to part deux of my low maintenance fantasy league series.
“Low maintenance” is apparently en vogue now-a-days – just look at wireless controllers with battery chargers, swipe cards, significant others and shower cleaners to name a few examples.
And, fantasy baseball is no exception. Gripes about fantasy baseball come in many different packages –“it’s too labor intensive”; “I don’t have time to set daily line-ups”; “the closers change too much”; “the season’s too long,” “etc.” Do you see a common thread here? Read more
h2h corner ~ Hot Stove Fantasy League
March 16, 2010
The offseason sucks, right? Day after day, pretty much nothing happens. Sure you stay up on all the news and get excited when your squad picks up a new (malcontented) outfielder – or a stud Cuban who might actually be eligible for social security benefits (if he was a citizen, you know) – or one of the Molina Brothers. For the most part, however, there is very little to keep fantasy players engaged through the long winter months. Lucky for you, I’ve got a solution: Hot Stove Fantasy Baseball. Read more
h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before the Season Even Starts IX
March 15, 2010
Maximizing every drop of value in every pick is hugely important. Taking a player in the fifth round that you could just as easily have taken in the sixth round is a major mistake. To avoid this, you need to know all about Average Draft Position (ADP). Read more
h2h Corner ~ Knowing ADP – How To Win Your League Before the Season Even Starts VIII
March 14, 2010
Maximizing every drop of value in every pick is hugely important. Taking a player in the fifth round that you could just as easily have taken in the sixth round is a major mistake. To avoid this, you need to know all about Average Draft Position (ADP). Read more
Did You Know…?
Only one second baseman (Aaron Hill) had over 100 RBIs?
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