1. Jake Peavy
We admit to being disgruntled 2006 Peavy owners, but knowing his talent, age, and home ballpark, were entirely
unsurprised by Jake’s stellar season. Peavy rewarded true-believers with a 19-6 record, 2.54 ERA, and 1.06 WHIP to go
with an astounding 240 whiffs. His home and away splits were similar and so were his first and second half numbers.
Sometimes it is easy to forget that after 6 big league seasons, Jake Peavy is only 27 years of age, and just now coming into
his prime. Expect more of the same from this ace among aces.
2. Johan Santana
It is scary to think what Johan Santana is capable of, having changed addresses from the American to the National League.
Already a Cy Young award winner, and widely considered to be the best pitcher in the American League for the past four
seasons, Santana cashed in on his considerable talent this past off-season to become the highest paid pitcher in baseball
history. Whether the returns on this dividend are substantial for New York, remains to be seen. What cannot be ignored,
however, is that the power lefty will now call Shea Stadium his home, and no longer match up against a DH, which should
adjust down his ERA and WHIP to frightfully small numbers. Ignore detractors who point to rising homers-allowed and
batting-average against, and expect a sub-3.00 ERA, 1.00 or lower WHIP, and 18+ wins.
3. Brandon Webb
When you look up inning-eater in a dictionary, you might happen upon a picture of Brandon Webb smiling back at you.
Having pitched at or around 230 innings for the past three years, and over 200 innings the past four years, Webb is as
close to a sure thing as there is among National League starters. In 2007, Brandon Webb’s ERA dropped for the fourth
consecutive year as his strikeout totals mounted. If the trend continues in 2008, we will see Webb eclipse 200 strikeouts
and deliver an ERA below 3.00. Don’t hold your breath – but at age 29, it is well within the realm of possibility.
4. Cole Hamels
In what amounted to his first full season, Hamels turned a lot of scouts’ heads. Bringing strikeouts, wins, ERA, and WHIP to
the table, Hamels is emerging as one of the NL’s best and brightest young star pitchers. At age 25, Cole Hamels looks like
he is entering the prime of his career. The only tick on his impeccable record is the question regarding his durability. Expect
200+ innings, 18 wins, and 200+ strikeouts as this young phenom could break-out in 2008!
5. Aaron Harang
Standing in at 6’7 and weighing a generous 275, Aaron Harang is built more like a linebacker than a starting pitcher. With
two straight seasons of 230+ innings pitched, Harang’s rubber arm has withstood much abuse and there is real concern
among scouts and fantasy GM’s that Aaron is on the fast track to elbow/shoulder surgery. That said, he is a hulking
presence on the mound and should be good for more of the same. In fact, with an improved surrounding cast, Harang may
just improve upon past performance in 2008.
6. Dan Haren
A move from the American League to the National League for a Cy Young contender is typically big news. This off-season
saw two such players swap addresses, Johan Santana and the subject of our present analysis – Dan Haren. Those banking
on Haren to excel in his new digs will proceed with caution and learn from the example set by predecessor Barry Zito. The
similarity between the two men is their move from pitcher-friendly confines to (in the case of Haren) a more hitter friendly
ball-park. The difference, however, is that Dan Haren has shown a pattern of improvement, and relies on a different
approach and arsenal of pitches to net outs. All in all we predict that park effect will cancel out the DH effect and Haren will
perform similarly to 2007 in 2008, with perhaps a slight drop-off. No Cy Young Awards yet.
7. John Smoltz
Already battling arm issues entering 2008, Smoltz has proven that there is pitching life after 40. He has also proven that it is
possible to go from being a dominant starter, to a top tier closer, back to a top flight ace during the course of a single
career. His elbow may just be bionic after this many reconstructions. Smoltz can be relied upon for the usual, 14+ wins and
a sub-3.50 ERA with around 170+ K’s. At age 41 now, it is unlikely for Smoltz to improve upon 2007’s numbers, but he is
John Smoltz, so hold your breath and cross your fingers.
8. Carlos Zambrano
After a dugout brawl with backstop Michael Barrett that ultimate sent Barrett packing for San Diego, Zambrano was locked-
in. After a rocky start that had his ERA around 5.77 to end April, the “Big Z” fully committed to pitching through hardship. In
the final analysis, Zambrano made a heroic comeback considering his first half WHIP and ERA (through all of his early
hardship) compare favorably with Zambrano’s post All-Star break numbers. His final totals were fairly typical of expectations,
save for an atrocious WHIP that has steadily risen since 2005’s 1.15 figure. His inability to locate pitches and throw strikes
will always result in streakiness and seesawing WHIP’s, but there are few pitchers more of a guarantee to win 15+ with a mid
3.00 ERA and 1.30 WHIP.
9. Roy Oswalt
My how the mighty have fallen. It isn’t that Oswalt had a bad year in 2007 – it is that the Astros have little else in the way of
talented arms to throw at opponents. The demise of the ‘Stros has bruised Oswalt’s record, reputation (to some degree),
and rank among top flight starters. While still the ace of the Houston starting staff, Roy Oswalt is no longer the 20 game
winner he was in 2005. Bolstering their offense with Miguel Tejada and a full season of Hunter Pence should ensure more
run support for Oswalt, and the addition of Jose Valverde might represent an improvement on outcast- Brad Lidge. All in all,
we expect more wins, a higher ERA, and a similar WHIP. He is no longer among the top five starters, even in NL-only
formats, but he’s still as reliable a choice as there is in the pitching department.
10. Chris Young
His two seasons with San Diego, though peppered with injuries, have told the tale of talent that is Chris Young. The tall (6’
10) right-hander posted another solid season with an unremarkable win-loss record, but with an ERA, WHIP, and opposition
BA that were good enough for top ten in the league (3.10 ERA with a 1.10 WHIP). In strikeout leagues, Young is a solid
investment, but will San Diego afford Young more chances for victory? Will Chris Young reach 200 IP for the first time in his
burgeoning career? If the answer is yes to each of these questions, Young may potentially enter 2009 in the top five of
even mixed league formats.
11. John Maine
When Kris Benson was dealt to Baltimore, Met fans cooed and moaned about the loss but we must give Minaya his due,
Maine has blossomed into a top of the rotation starter while Benson has spent the majority his time on the DL. At age 27,
John Maine looks to be in his prime, and if he can stay healthy and strong (i.e. avoid the disappearing act he pulled in the
second half of 2007), then the sky is the limit for this young Met gun. Opponents hit an anemic .235 off of Maine, and
although he was manhandled in the second half, he still ended the season with a respectable 3.91 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP to
go with a 15-10 record. Expect some improvement in 2008, but how much will depend on durability and durability alone.
12. Brett Myers
Early injury combined with the sudden demise of then-closer Tom Gordon, resulted in a shift from starter to closer for Bret
Myers. He pitched well in the relief role, but after acquiring Brad Lidge (and taking tremendous heat from the press and
Philadelphia fans), it appears that Myers is returning to head up a nearly non-existent Philly rotation. The one, two punch of
Hamels and Myers may be one of the best and youngest in the whole of the National League. Beware NL east opponents, a
healthy Brett Myers may be good for 15+ wins, a sub 4.00 ERA, and a sub-1.30 WHIP.
13. Oliver Perez
Signed for a one year deal by New York, Oliver Perez will be playing hungry in 2008. That said, few pitchers in the Majors
allow the mental component of their game to interfere with their on-field performance to the extent that Oliver Perez does.
Perez will always have his games. You know – those games…the ones where he walks 5+ batters per game and does his
best to give the game away with wildness and lack of composure. To his credit, however, Perez kept such lapses to a
minimum in ’07, and under the tutelage of pitching arch-Jedi Rick Peterson, we expect more of the same in 2008. The
addition of Johan Santana will relieve much of the burden on Oliver Perez, as well as give the Mets the best lefty power
tandem in baseball. Draft with confidence and bid up for this talented young southpaw.
14. Brad Penny
LA’s ace is now undeniably Brad Penny. He is not the most senior, and therefore may not get the Opening Day nod over
veteran Derek Lowe, but Penny’s performance in 2007 has earned him top fantasy billing in our opinion. Brad Penny’s sub
3.00 ERA and 1.31 WHIP were statistical explanations for his otherworldly 16-4 ERA. Penny managed to stay strong and
steady all season rather than suffering his typical fade in the second half, and the result was a Cy Young contender
performance. Expect more of the same from this 31 year old flame-throwing Dodger in 2008.
15. Tim Lincecum
Few pitchers had the impact Tim Lincecum did in 2007. Although Ryan Braun and Troy Tulowitzki robbed any chance
Lincecum had at Rookie of the Year honors, he still turned many heads with his funky wind-up and unique combination of
control and power. Opposing batters mustered only .226 against Lincecum, and he flashed brilliance sporadically
throughout 2007. He won’t win backed by a depleted Giant offense, but in strikeout and keeper league formats, Tim
Lincecum could be a boon.
16. Ben Sheets
Sheets has been dropping farther and farther down on experts’ rankings for the past few seasons for one reason - because
he appears constitutionally incapable of stringing together consecutive healthy seasons. It is hard to believe he is already
29 years old, but harder yet to believe that Ben Sheets has really only had one remarkable season. With all of his gifts,
Sheets has not yet mastered the art of staying healthy. Until he can, the risk equals the reward with this perennial
bridesmaid. Approach with caution, since an implosion or explosion seem the only choices for Sheets.
17. Jeff Francis
Where does one place Jeff Francis in the rankings? His talent and raw “stuff” are unquestioned, but Coors Field and it’s
reputation for destroying careers will always frighten away throngs of prospective buyers. Superficially, it looked as if
Francis had taken a step forward in 2007, but when you look between the numbers, what jumps out is that his ERA, WHIP
and OBA all rose. In spite of that, Jeff Francis will enter 2008 the ace of a surprisingly young and talented Colorado pitching
staff. Expectations will be high for Francis to crack 20 wins on a team that went to the World Series in ’07. Will be deliver?
Our bet is that he will fall just short of 20 wins, but that the ERA and WHIP will more closely resemble 2006 totals.
18. Chad Billingsley
In what amounted to his first “almost-full” season for LA in 2007, Billingsley did what the Dodgers needed most – he kept
them in the game and flashed occasional signs of the brilliance that is expected of this young gun. Expectations will be lofty
entering 2008. The Dodgers hope that 2007 was just the tip of the iceberg for this former uber-prospect. Prospective
fantasy General Managers hope for the same – and we advise proceeding with caution. He is largely unproven, but has
shown improvement at every level, so another step forward is a good bet in ’08.
19. Rich Hill
The 6’5 Chicago southpaw vastly improved upon his impressive 2006 cup ‘o coffee last season. In fact, many have argued
that Hill is the up-and-coming ace of the Cubs, and from a statistical standpoint, it is becoming difficult to argue otherwise.
With a 3.92 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and .235 opponents’ BA, his 11-8 record seems oddly juxtaposed. With Dempster no longer
acting as saboteur, we expect more wins and another year of declining ERA for Hill. Fantasy GM’s will pay richly for Hill, but
should expect to recoup their investment from this rising star.
20. Derek Lowe
Since moving to LA, Lowe has become the hallmark of consistency. Although his total innings-pitched appear in decline
over the last 3 seasons, 2008 will represent a contract year for Lowe. A fierce competitor, Lowe is not the sort of pitcher we
expect a breakthrough season from during a contract year – but it should not hurt. 15+ wins and a sub 4.00 ERA with a sub
1.30 WHIP is what you should expect from this 34 year old pitching staple.
21. Tim Hudson
Tim Hudson was all but written off by sportswriters and scouts. After several consecutive disappointing seasons, Hudson’s
2007 performance turned a lot of heads in the industry, as it was utterly unexpected. Opponents batted .012 points lower
against Hudson in ’07 than ’06, and 15 fewer homers, and won three more games and lost two fewer decisions. At age 32,
Hudson is still capable of posting solid numbers. However, the loss of Mike Gonzalez certainly leaves a void in a bullpen that
was already wonton for capable arms, so the win totals may suffer more in 2008. Expect a sub 4.00 ERA, sub 1.30 WHIP,
and 12+ wins – but don’t hold your breath for a repeat of 2007.
22. Ted Lilly
In league formats that reward K’s, Ted Lilly is a boon for fantasy owners. His change of address resulted in just the kind of
statistical facelift we predicted a year ago, more wins, a lower ERA, lower WHIP, and more K’s. Although last season was the
first day of the rest of Lilly’s proverbial National League career, we expect a small step backward in 2008. But, at age 31,
Lilly still has room for improvement, and with Dempster ousted by the relief team of Marmol, Howry, and closer-du-jour Kerry
Wood, it is entirely possible that the win will pile up.
23. Yovani Gallardo
Yes, we are ranking Gallardo this high. His limited stint in the majors proved one thing – that this uber-prospect is ready for
the big time. He surrendered only 37 walks in 110 IP and opponents only managed a .245 average against him, and all this
in his rookie effort. Gallardo will have a powerful offense behind him as Milwaukee enters 2008 as the darkhorse candidate
to take the NL Central divisional title, yet again. When he returns from a rehabbing his torn left meniscus, we expect initial
difficulty followed by a solid season. He won’t be out for long and his blue-chip rookie status makes it difficult to score a
bargain for him, but hope that other owners downgrade significantly for the knee injury and bid/draft confidently for this up-
and-comer.
24. Matt Cain
Cain was proof in 2007 that outstanding pitching and otherworldly talent do not a fantasy value make. Were Matt Cain on a
better team with an adequate offense, he would likely crack the 15 or better, but with the San Francisco Giants behind him,
defense and run support will be hard to come by in 2008. A 7-16 record were Cain’s punishment for a stellar 3.65 ERA and
1.26 WHIP. We expect an increase in wins during 2008, simply because the alternative is unthinkable. Draft or buy with
caution, but only because of the uniform, not the arm!
25. Ian Snell
Pirates’ brass always knew Snell had talent, but no one expected him to take the quantum leap forward he took in 2007. His
9-12 record was more a product of poor run support and a shaky bullpen than anything else. The ERA and WHIP were both
inviting at 3.76 and 1.33, respectively, but will the Pirates cast of losers bring him down again in 2008, or offer the kind of
support deserving an ace? Time will tell – but our bet is that the pen and anemic offense will play spoiler to many of Snell’s
quality starts yet again in ’08. The second half fade was significant, but in keeper league formats, Ian Snell might have more
value than most other lesser-known options. And, in leagues where whiffs count, Snell’s net worth may get another bump
up. Either way, expect 10+ wins, and a mid to high 3.00 ERA and 1.30+ WHIP.
26. Greg Maddux
We might take some heat for placing Maddux quite this high on NL-only rankings, but bear in mind that “The Professor” has
been successfully at his job for going on 20 years, and has managed to maintain his success despite a loss of velocity. The
loss of heat has resulted in dwindling strikeout totals for the once-Cy Young mainstay, but he still knows how to win, and will
still deliver a tolerable ERA with an excellent WHIP. Age is not on his side, but home ballpark, a solid defense, and a
knowledge of the game that trumps most other starting pitchers, are all reasons to invest in Greg Maddux in 2008.
27. Bronson Arroyo
If “Pitcher Abuse Points” are the industry-standard accepted harbinger of injury, then buyer beware when getting Bronson
Arroyo. The Reds have downright abused the right-hander since he came over from Boston. Slotted in as the number two
starter behing Aaron Harang, Arroyo brings flair and a veteran presence to an inexperienced and uncertain Reds’ rotation.
Expect better than the 9-15 record of 2007. In fact, we expect better than his 4.23 ERA and 1.40 WHIP, as well. Our
confidence in Arroyo stems from another stellar second half, as well as the acquisition of Francisco Cordero, who will
supplant Dave Weathers as closer and provide a one-two punch that should ensure a win-loss record that should resemble
the inverse of 2007 in 2008.
28. Adam Wainwright
Though he signed a four year contract before the start of 2008, Wainwright will be the ace of a depleted Cardinals starting
staff. With injuries to Chris Carpenter, Mark Mulder, and newly signed Matt Clement, there are few options left for manager
Tony LaRussa apart from Adam Wainwright. His second half reawakening (2.71 ERA with a 1.25 WHIP after the break)
provides hope for prospective fantasy owners. Buyer beware, as the loss of Albert Pujols to elbow surgery would eliminate
the anchor of the Cards’ offense, and result in insufficient run support for the likes of Wainwright.
29. Aaron Cook
Better in 4x4 than 5x5 league formats, Aaron Cook returned from a blood clot to recapture the hearts of Colorado fans in
2006 and 2007. Although Cook tossed over 50 fewer innings last year than the prior season, he allowed opponents to bat
almost ten points lower in 2007, and even threw two complete games. At age 29, Aaron Cook may just now be hitting his
prime. Expect a rise in wins to go with a lower ERA and WHIP in 2008.
30. Randy Johnson
Two back surgeries later, we are still discussing Randy Johnson. He is almost irresistible when name cache comes to into
play. The reward far outweighs the risk with this lanky, aging future-Hall-of-Fame southpaw. After all, when he was remotely
healthy during 2007, Johnson delivered a 3.81 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP to go with a 4-3 record in 50+ innings of work.
Johnson will open the season on the DL, but we expect that upon his return, some significant strikeouts and a handful of
wins as he will toe the rubber for an expected contender.
31. Barry Zito
The excitement was palpable when fantasy owners salivated at the thought of former Cy Young Award winner Barry Zito’s
signing to (at the time) the fattest pitching contract in baseball history. Without a DH, experts speculated that Zito’s ERA
would drop 0.50+ and his WHIP would approach desirable once again. My how differently reality was than fantasy in the life
and times of Barry Zito in 2007. Zito’s ERA actually climbed over 0.50 and though his WHIP dropped to 1.35 from 1.40, Zito
struck out a career worst 131 batters. With no offense behind him in 2008, Barry Zito will be the least desirable high-priced
pitcher in the National League. With his lofty salary, fantasy GM’s should not hold their breath on a trade to a contender,
and although he is only 29 years of age, Zito’s best seasons are likely behind him. Instead of drafting Barry Zito, trade for
him and gamble on a repeat of his sparkling 2007 second-half.
32. Dave Bush
We were among fantasy owners who were stoked when Bush moved to the NL Central from Toronto in 2006, and were
pleased at his freshman season in Milwaukee. However, Bush’s follow-up season in 2007 ended with him relegated to the
bull pen. Bush ended with a 5.12 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, and .291 opposing batting average, all significant steps backward
relative to 2006. With oft-injured Ben Sheets, already-hurt Yovani Gallardo, Carlos Villanueva, Jeff Suppan, and Manny
Parra guaranteed rotation spots, Bush will have to fight to earn back the spot he mortgaged last season. Our bet is that
Bush will find his way back, if for no other reason, because of all of the question-marks surrounding the present cast of
characters. Get him cheaply and possibly find reward with a talented young wayward pitcher who has every reason to
rebound.
33. Scott Olsen
Olsen’s off-the-field antics dominated discussion regarding the talented southpaw during 2007. With a career threatened by
derailment because of DUI charges and an obscene gesture toward fans, Olsen has a lot to prove in 2008. Moreover, the
loss of Dontrelle Willis means that Olsen will be the top candidate to steal the number one starter role, going forward. In a
rotation embarrassingly headed up by Tampa and LA outcast Mark Hendrickson, Olsen’s spot is seemingly secure.
However, a 5.81 ERA and 1.76 WHIP to go with a .315 OBA are all reasons to proceed with caution in 2008. The talent is
there, but will it win out over the intangibles that have stood in Olsen’s way to this point?
34. Braden Looper
Few unsuccessful closers become ineffective middle relievers, only to transform into a somehow serviceable starting
pitcher. Braden Looper did just that in 2007. Many questioned management’s decision to move Looper into the starting five,
but a depleted St. Louis rotation surprisingly benefited from the addition of Looper, whose 4.94 ERA and 1.34 WHIP
exceeded all expectations. With the health status of Albert Pujols in question and the departure of Cardinal mainstay Jim
Edmonds, we recommend caution in drafting or bidding on Looper entering 2008. Expect 8+ wins and a 5.00+ ERA with a
1.40+ ERA.
35. Jamie Moyer
A move to the National League injected new life into the seemingly unending career of aging southpaw Jamie Moyer. In his
first full season with the Phillies, Moyer posted a 14-12 record with a 5.01 ERA and 1.44 WHIP with 133 K’s. At age 46,
Moyer has defied odds and managed to win despite a repertoire consisting of varying off-speed pitches slung for a
predictable arm-slot. Expect continued decline from this junk-balling lefty and explore better options entering 2008.
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