1. Takashi Saito
Few relief pitchers were better for fantasy baseball teams in 2007. Saito finished the year with a sparkling 1.40 ERA and 39
saves. Age and a myriad of minor injuries are a concern, but Saito should regress only slightly in ’08. Pitching for a winning
team in a pitcher’s ballpark, Saito is the clear number one relief pitcher in the NL.
2. Billy Wagner
Mr. Consistent racked up another solid year in ’07, saving 34 games with a 2.63 ERA. Although ERA and WHIP totals for
Wagner have increased in each of the past three seasons, we expect Wagner to put together another solid season in
2008. Like Saito, Wagner is pitching for a winning team in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. In a league full of dubious closer
talent, Wagner is as reliable as they come. Draft with confidence.
3. Trevor Hoffman
Hoffman has fallen on many draft boards this spring due to offseason elbow surgery, but do not let this deter you. If Billy
Wagner is Mr. Consistent, then Hoffman is Mr. Reliable. Largely mimicking his 2005 season, Hoffman notched 42 saves with
a 2.92 ERA and 1.12 whip in 2007. We expect a slight regression due both to age, and to shoulder surgery in 2008.
Hoffman perennially gets 40+ saves, but is no longer as valuable as others because of his dwindling strikeout totals.
4. Jose Valverde
The NL saves leader last season, Valverde saved an impressive 47 games. Many magazines and websites rank him as the
number one closer in the NL, but do not be fooled by such hype. Remember, Valverde is only one year removed from a
5.84 ERA, 1.46 Whip performance. At 28 years of age entering 2008, we do not expect him to have that much of a
regression, but there are more reliable closer options available. Expect a low 3’s ERA with 40 saves.
5. Francisco Cordero
Cordero was one of the steals of NL-only drafts last season, after he saved 44 games with a 2.98 ERA and 1.11 Whip for
the Brewers. Entering 2008, Cordero will be pitching for a different NL central team, the Cincinnati Reds. Playing in that
bandbox should have an adverse effect on Cordero’s ERA. Plus, the Reds’ starting pitching and middle relief are not as
talented as were Milwaukee’s, which may translate into more blown leads before Cordero is called from the ‘pen.
6. Matt Capps
Depending on how knowledgeable your league members are, Capps is one of the few potential sleepers out there at the
closer position. Taking over for the floundering veteran Solomon Torres midway through the 2007 season, Capps notched
a quick and uneventful 18 saves with an outstanding 2.28 ERA and 1.01 Whip. In 2008, he will be handed the closer job
from day one and 30+ saves is a reasonable expectation. A control pitcher without overpowering stuff, Capps is likely to
regress to a mid 3’s ERA, but remain solid in Whip. Why rank him ahead of Lidge, Marmol, Soriano, etc? Mostly because he
lacks the inconstant and injury-plagued histories of many of those guys.
7. Brad Lidge
Ahhh. What to make of Lidge. With apologies to Eminem, will the real Brad Lidge please stand up? Is he the dominating
fireballer that replaced Billy Wagner in Houston back in 2004, or the uninspiring 2006 version where he got shelled harder
than Baghdad. We think Lidge will be just fine in 2008, despite playing in hitter-friendly Philadelphia. In fact, now that he is
playing for a divisional contender, expect Lidge’s save opportunities to increase. A 3.50 ERA with 36 saves is a reasonable
estimate if Lidge is healthy. Brad Lidge is also especially valuable in strike out leagues, having stuck out over 100 batters in
three of his past five seasons. If Lidge falters, however, do not be shocked to see the Phillies turn to Tom “Flash” Gordon
or utility-pitcher Ryan Madson.
8. Jason Isringhausen
Despite having injury problems just about every season, Izzy always manages to get 30+ saves. Last season, Isringhausen
was stellar in the first half (1.74 ERA, 0.84 Whip), but faded down the stretch (3.15 ERA, 1.28 Whip in second half). The
Cardinals are a shell of their former playoff selves, and figure to win a lot less in 2008. The result will be fewer save
opportunities for Isringhausen. Expect another season like 2006 (3.56 ERA, 1.46 Whip, 33 saves).
9. Manuel Corpas
When Brian Fuentes struggled for a period in 2007, the Rockies turned to their young sinkerballer, Manuel Corpas, and
never looked back. Corpas finished the season with 19 saves and a 2.08 ERA. Corpas enters 2008 as the Rockies’ top
choice to close games. If he keeps the job throughout the season, expect Corpas to save 30 games with a mid to high 3’s in
ERA. But if you draft Corpas, we recommend also getting your hands on Brian Fuentes as insurance.
10. Rafael Soriano
After making a name for himself as a reliable middle reliever in both Seattle and Atlanta, the Braves finally gave him the
opportunity to save some games for them last season after Bob Wickman and Octavio Dotel proved inept. Soriano was
solid, saving 9 games with a 3.00 ERA and 0.86 Whip. Injuries are always a concern with Soriano, who has spent 300+ days
on the disabled list from 2004-2007. If he remains healthy , as he did in 2007, Soriano has the ability to notch 30 saves with
a 3.00 ERA and a good Whip.
11. Kevin Gregg
This time last season, Roto players throughout the land were flipping a coin trying to decide whether the Marlins would be
using Matt Lindstrom, Taylor Tankersley, Henry Owens, or Kevin Gregg as their closer. Injuries to his competitors left the
job to Gregg, and he did well, if not spectacular. Posting a 3.54 ERA, 1.23 Whip and 32 saves in 2007, Gregg enters a
more certain situation in 2008. Nonetheless, Gregg will have a short leash, and if he falls on hard times, do not be surprised
to find the Marlins spreading the wealth between Lindstrom and Tankersley.
12. Eric Gagne
Formerly “the” elite closer of the game, injuries, steroid allegations, and a series of poor performances have dampened
Gagne’s fantasy value. At the start of 2007 it appeared as though the old Gagne was back, after he posted a 1.23 ERA and
1.00 Whip. Encouraged by his first half performance, the Red Sox traded for Gagne in hopes of shoring up their bullpen.
Thus began Gagne’s implosion, to the tune of a 5.70 second-half ERA, and 1.60 Whip. The Brewers signed Gagne in the
off season after losing Cordero to the Reds. The good news is that Gagne will be first choice as closer and will be toeing
the rubber for a winning team. The bad news is that he’s a shadow of his former self, and a major injury risk. Draft
accordingly. If you get him on your team, be sure to target Derrick Turnbow as Gagne-insurance too.
13. Brian Wilson
Wilson spent most of 2007 in the minors, but proved to be an adept reliever late in the season after he was called up.
Finishing the year with six saves and a 2.28 ERA in only 23.2 innings of work, Wilson is expected to begin the year as the
closer for the Giants. He has trouble against left-handed hitters and needs to work on his control if he is to succeed as a
major league closer. The Giants have an atrocious team, so do not expect Wilson to get many save opportunities; the low
20’s is a good guess.
14. Kerry Wood
Manager Lou Pinella has stated that Wood is the lead contender for the Cubs’ closer job, beating out contenders such as
Carlos Marmol and Bob Howry. A perennial comeback-player-of-the-year candidate, Wood has electric stuff and could be a
dominant closer. The issue with Wood has always been his health. Perhaps the move to the ‘pen will be less taxing on his
arm, and like John Smoltz circa 2003, Wood could rediscover his groove there. But with his injury history we rate his
prognosis as closer to be guarded, at best. Expect 20-25 saves with Marmol and Howry stealing some chances throughout
the season.
15. Brandon Lyon
With Jose Valverde now pitching for the Astros, the closers job, according to mlb.com, is likely to fall to Brandon Lyon. Lyon
was solid in ’07, posting a 2.68 ERA and 1.24 whip. We expect Lyon’s ERA to regress in ’08, but he should be good for 20+
saves.
16. Jonathan Broxton
One of the best setup men in baseball, Broxton is next in line for the Dodgers’ closer job should Saito get injured. Broxton
has sported ERA’s of 2.59 and 2.85 respectively over the past two seasons. Likewise, he has struck out 97 and 99 batters.
At only 23 years of age, Broxton bears the closer-of-the-future label. An outstanding source of K’s, and a boon to your
ERA/Whip, in any format, Broxton is a guy to watch – especially in keeper leagues.
17. Brian Fuentes
The former closer for the Rockies lost his job last season to Manuel Corpas. Fuentes actually had a decent season in ’07,
managing 20 saves with a 3.08 ERA and 1.13 whip. Outside of the month of June (when he lost his closers job), Fuentes
was solid all season long. If Corpas struggles in ’08, or needs a break, Fuentes will be first in line to take over. Fuentes is a
good pitcher to get in NL only leagues because he will also help your ERA and Whip. In fact, Fuentes’ Whip has improved in
each of the past three seasons (1.25, 1.16, and 1.13).
18. Heath Bell
A longtime prospect of the Mets who struggled his first two seasons in the Bigs, Bell broke out in a big way for the Padres in
2007. He finished the season with an eye popping 2.02 ERA, 0.96 Whip, and 102 strikeouts. Here’s a fun fact: in 93.2
innings pitched Bell let up only 60 hits. Bell returns to his setup role in 2008, but will be first in line to take over for Trevor
Hoffman if he gets injured. Hoffman had surgery in the offseason and is older than Yoda, so Bell is a good bet on draft day.
At the very least, he could help lower your ERA and Whip.
19. Carlos Marmol
If (when) Kerry Wood gets hurt this season, Marmol will be the most likely candidate to take over the closer’s job for the
Cubs. Marmol has blistering stuff and was exception down the stretch last season. In 69 IP, Marmol had 96 K’s, an
infinitesimal 1.43 ERA and 1.10 Whip. He is a bit wild, but is utterly unhittable. Even if Marmol doesn’t get a chance to save
games, his strikeouts and ERA should still make him a valuable pitcher in NL only leagues.
20. Tom Gordon
After saving 34 games for the Phillies in 2006, the Phillies decided to move Gordon to middle relief in 2007 to make room
for Brett Myers. Gordon struggled with rotator cuff issues, and finished the year with a 4.72 ERA. In 2008, Gordon returns
to his setup role after the Phillies traded for Brad Lidge in the offseason. Lidge, however, is far from reliable and Gordon will
be the first man to replace Lidge in the 9th if circumstances warrant it.
21. David Weathers
Weathers racked up 33 saves in 2007 and the Reds rewarded him by signing Francisco Cordero to replace him in 2008.
Weathers will revert to the setup role he had for many years in Houston, but will manager Dusty Baker’s first option should
Cordero go down.
22. Tony Pena
If Lyon falters, Tony Pena (or Chad Qualls) will get a chance to close out some games. After a miserable 2006 campaign
featuring a 5.58 ERA, Pena broke out in 2007 to the tune of a 3.27 ERA and 1.10 Whip. The challenge for Pena will be to
maintain his performance in the second half of the season. Last year Pena had a 2.14 ERA before the break and a 4.36
ERA afterwards.
23. Chad Qualls
A setup man for most of his career, Qualls may get a chance to close out some games for the Diamondbacks if Brandon
Lyon struggles. Qualls is a groundball pitcher and an innings eater. He is more than capable of handling the closer role, but
expect his ERA to go up slightly, as Arizona is more of a hitters park than Houston.
24. Brad Hennessey
Although Hennessey managed 19 saves with a 3.42 ERA last season, the Giants are expected to give Brian Wilson the
closer’s job instead of him. Hennessey does not have dominant stuff, and only has value if Wilson struggles or gets injured.
25. Derrick Turnbow
Turnbow has been flat out miserable the past two seasons, accumulating ERA’s of 6.87 and 4.63 respectively. Yet, he is
one of the few players in the Brewers bullpen to have 9th inning experience should Gagne fail. Given Gagne’s struggles in
2007, Turnbow may be a good guy to have on your bench “just in case.” But do not start him on your team unless you are
prepared to take the hit in ERA.
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