Sometimes I think the worst thing one can do as a rotisserie player is watch baseball.
When we watch games, we become active…we become…scouts. We see, in many cases, a small sample of a player’s overall performance
and draw broad conclusions about how good the player is, both in a real sense and in a fantasy sense. Sometimes we’re right, and
sometimes we’re wrong.
When the Yankees played the Twins in the postseason a few years ago, I saw a young Justin Morneau for the first time. Even though he did
very little in the series, I recall being terrified of him. The patience. The stare. The calm. I was afraid that if he connected with one, he might
discover a new deck at The Stadium. Of course, I was right about Morneau, who took home MVP honors in 2006.
I was wrong about Marcus Thames. When Thames drilled the first pitch he ever saw as a big leaguer into the bleachers off of Randy Johnson,
I, just like probably anyone else who was watching that day, began to wonder how good the kid might be. I should have been wondering why
his talent never took him to the majors, even for a cup of coffee, before age 25.
No team in American sports gets more face time than the New York Yankees (although the Red Sox, interestingly, drew more fans on the road
in 2007). They lead on ESPN and on Letterman. When Alex Rodriguez is seen with a non-Mrs. Rodriguez companion, it’s a major news story.
Odds are that if a casual fan has seen a handful of baseball games over the course of a given year, the Yankees played in at least one of those
games.
Why is this relevant to fantasy? We draft the players we’ve seen, the players we know. We see Mariano Rivera succeed in a few close games,
then draft him too early come March. We see a big free agent don the pinstripes, then move him up twenty spots in our draft rankings because,
we reason, of “all the RBI opportunities he’ll pick up hitting in that lineup.” To an extent, this logic is reasonable, when tempered. If Jason
Giambi is vacating Oakland (and Miguel Tejada and Eric Chavez) for New York, how much better is his lineup protection really going to get? As
I (a Yankee fan) can attest, as many players (Randy Johnson, Johnny Damon, Giambi and Carl Pavano come to mind) regress after donning
pinstripes as do excel. Incumbent Yankees get the same treatment from fantasy owners. Bernie Williams was overvalued for years. Andy
Pettitte, who I have seen positioned as a number two starter on many fantasy teams, is someone I would have been content to let sit on
waivers in many leagues I’ve played, even during his prime years.
Let’s do a case example. Who is the dominant fantasy player of these five shortstops?
Statistics from 2007:
Player BA R HR RBI SB
A .296 86 21 102 13
B .315 80 9 94 13
C .322 102 12 73 15
D .301 101 8 86 20
E .291 104 24 99 7
Player C is Derek Jeter, who is being taken at an average draft position (ADP) in ESPN 2008 Live Drafts of #29;
Player E is Troy Tulowitzki, ADP #44;
Player A is Carlos Guillen, ADP #53;
Player B is Michael Young, ADP #77;
Player D is Orlando Cabrera, ADP #105.
Jeter, at #29, is a terrible pick. Tulowitzki offers substantially greater power, plays in Colorado and has considerable upside. Incidentally, I’d
argue that Tulo is being drafted too high as well; sophomore slumps are common, and he is probably benefiting a bit from an October on the
big stage. Guillen typically mirrors Jeter’s production but is always drafted rounds later. This year, he will be hitting behind some combination
of Miguel Cabrera, Gary Sheffield and Magglio Ordonez! Michael Young is coming off of a down year, for him, but if you trade his 20 run shortfall
for his 20 run lead over Jeter, the two were fairly comparable over the course of the year; certainly, one can not discern enough difference
between the two to justify an ADP disparity of 48 picks. O. Cabrera offered approximately as much value as the Yankee captain, eight rounds
later. O-Dog’s production was a bit higher than usual for him, but you get the point.
Look, this is not to say that Jeter is without value. Jeter’s value stems from his consistency… you can count on him to hit .300, score upwards
of 100 runs, hit double-digit homers, drive in 70 and steal 15. These are nice numbers; they just are not fantasy winning numbers. With the
exception of a statistical blip of 97 RBI in 2006, Jeter’s power offers very little upside. He gives you 15 and 70. And he turns 34 in June.
Why does this matter? The three starting pitchers drafted by ESPN owners immediately following Jeter are Brandon Webb, Josh Beckett and C.
C. Sabathia. Webb won the 2006 Cy and Beckett had a strong case for both the 2007 World Series MVP and the 2007 Cy, the latter of which
was won by Sabathia. The three SP’s immediately following O. Cabrera are Javier Vazquez, Kelvim Escobar and Francisco Liriano. All three
have the potential for good or great seasons (although Escobar’s is off to an ominous start), but all three carry far greater risk than Webb,
Beckett and Sabathia. Theoretically, you could leave the draft with Jeter and Vazquez or O. Cabrera and Webb. I’ll take the latter, thank you.
One note: Even though shortstop was long a shallow position in fantasy, you’d have to really drop the ball to leave this draft without a
representative player at the position. In a ten team league, you should be fine with any of Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes, Jimmy Rollins, Jeter,
Tulowitzki, Guillen, Miguel Tejada, Rafael Furcal, Young, O. Cabrera, Edgar Renteria, Jhonny Peralta, Khalil Greene, J.J. Hardy, Julio Lugo or
Stephen Drew. That’s 16 guys for 10 teams. Keep it in mind. Always have in mind how many guys you can live with at a position, in case you
need to capitalize on value plays (i.e. Chipper Jones has fallen too far and I have to take him) that come up throughout the draft.
Jeter is not alone. Another Yankee who is being overvalued by ESPN owners (critical note: these are not keeper leagues) is Joba Chamberlain.
Joba is beginning the year in the ‘pen, and according to Rotoworld, Yankees brass plans to limit him to 140 innings. Take him if he falls, but I
would not advise taking him at ADP #144, where he is going now. That’s seven spots ahead of Brad Penny, who went 16-4 last year with a 3.03
ERA and a 1.31 WHIP and is playing in front of what should be an improved team. Penny is not perfect—a significant drop in his 2007 K/BB rate
suggests he may have been a bit lucky in ‘07—but unlike Joba, his innings aren’t limited, and he’s a proven commodity. Penny is not sexy, but
he might help you win your league. A good year from Joba might bring 12 wins, and there is always the chance the Yankees keep him in the
pen all year. Take Chad Billingsley at #162, Oliver Perez at #187 (how the hell is Oliver Perez still only 26 years old?) or Dustin McGowan at
#196 instead.
Even smart fantasy owners fall victim to the Yankee mistake. A good friend of mine and solid fantasy player, who I recently spoke to about this
topic, listened through my argument, generally agreed, then suggested (thinking he’d impress me by tossing out an uncommon name), well
you’ve got to like Melky Cabrera. Melky Cabrera?!? OPS .718, 8 HR, 13 SB in 545 AB, and an actual step back from the previous year? Again, I’ll
pass.
In all honesty, this is not all about the Yankees. When teams are in the spotlight, some of their players are likely to be showered with undue
fantasy love. David Ortiz is a tremendous fantasy player and a postseason killer, but he still needs to be selected after Ryan Howard and Prince
Fielder, who are simply more productive and younger. Jacoby Ellsbury’s (ADP #146) postseason coming out party doesn’t mean he’s
guaranteed to produce much more than Ryan Theriot (ADP #249), whose value is further enhanced by his 2/S eligibility.
Unsurprisingly, some fantasy owners also prefer the players they most like to watch play, or the guys who play for their home town team. They
own Cal Ripken, Jr. or Craig Biggio at the tail end of brilliant careers, when the players are fantasy liabilities. They draft Homer Bailey ten
rounds too early because he’s the great hope of a generation of Reds fans. They trade for Jeter ‘cause, shucks, he’s likeable.
A good rule of thumb is to never draft—or own—your personal favorite player.
I learned this my first year in fantasy, when my first post-draft move was to seek out Paul O’Neill’s owner and let him dictate O’Neill’s value. I
don’t recall who I dealt for my favorite player, but my guess is that I lost the deal. Nowadays, although it isn’t exactly intentional, I very rarely own
Yankee players. They are almost always, to a man, overvalued.
Further caution the guys you have heard too much about during the offseason. Erik Bedard was in trade rumors all winter, and was ultimately
dealt, but be careful not to equate this activity with a subconscious Erik Bedard picked up even more skills over the winter. Be very careful with
Johan Santana this year. Mike Piazza struggled to adjust to Shea at first, as did Carlos Beltran. It will be much easier for Santana’s stats to fall
than rise with a change of scenery. There is more room on the way down than there is on the way up.
The good news is that the rotisserie world is always welcoming new owners, which means there are always new suckers. If you’re a new
owner yourself, hopefully you won’t be one of those suckers after finishing this column. Use this knowledge to your advantage. A best practice
is to get to know your fellow owners (if you don’t know them already). Learn who their favorite teams are. Ask them who their favorite players
are. Depending on where you play, your opponents might have online profiles that display their teams of choice. Furthermore, take notes in
drafts, or make mental notes. Is an owner expressing an affinity for a given player? Did he just say, “great pick…I have him as one of my
sleepers this year”?
If an owner is showing his cards, play into it. A salesperson always uses information to his strategic advantage. Go do likewise. See if your
fellow owners will overpay for your Yankees, your World Series heroes and their favorite players. Meanwhile, look at the stats instead of the
names and land the bargain guys from the Arizonas and Torontos of the world. And stay away from the guys you love too much to view rationally.
One exception: production is production. Even if he is your favorite, you have my permission to take A-Rod first.
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