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April 18, 2008
The Week in Review
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Tampa Bay Calls Up Evan Longoria
On April 11th Devil Rays called up third baseman Evan Longoria. The 22 year old Longoria is among the top prospects in
baseball and should be a top flight fantasy baseball player for years to come. The only thing standing in his way is the Devil
Ray’s bumbling management. Longoria has been called up to replace Willie Aybar while he’s on the 15 day DL. By all
accounts, Longoria should be starting over Aybar, but the Devil Rays have decided to keep Longoria in the minors for two
months so that he will be eligible for arbitration in 2014 rather than 2013 (I’m glad that the Rays are playing to win this year).
Longoria had a terrific spring training following a season where he had a combined 26 homeruns and 95 runs batted in.
Longoria is expected to develop into a perennial .300 hitter with power. Though, Longoria will have to put up amazing
numbers to shame the Devil Rays management into keeping him in the majors following Aybar’s return from the DL. However,
by mid season Longoria is sure to be recalled and could certainly put up a Ryan Braun sort of performance. Its doubtful that
Longoria is available in your league, but if he is, pick him up immediately. .
Minnesota Calls up Francisco Liriano
On April 11, 2008, the Minnesota Twins called up phenom Francisco Liriano from the minor leagues. For those of you who
have somehow forgotten, Liriano dominated major league hitters for a half a season in 2006. However, Liriano missed the
second half of 2006 and all of 2007 due to Tommy John surgery. Now, approximately a year and a half removed from
surgery, Liriano has made it back to the major leagues. There is no question regarding Liriano’s talent, but his health and his
endurance are going to be major problems. First, the general rule is that pitchers recovering from Tommy John surgery need
at least two years to fully regain their velocity and control. There are few exceptions. Second, Liriano did not pitch at all last
year, so for the time being he will be a five inning pitcher. Needless to say, don’t expect a return to his 2006 season in which
he had a 2.16 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP and 144 strike outs in 121 innings – at least this year. Liriano should be an average pitcher
this year, and at the very least, should yield a good amount of strikeouts. For those of you in keeper leagues, expect Liriano
to be a top ten pitcher next year.
Toronto Activates B. J. Ryan
On April 13th, the Toronto Blue Jays activated closer B.J. Ryan. Ryan missed almost all of 2007 following Tommy John
surgery and is returning about three weeks earlier than expected. Ryan was a dominating closer in 2005 and 2006 (36 and
38 saves respectively), but it is unclear how he will pitch following major arm surgery. In fact, Ryan is returning only 10
months after Tommy John surgery, which as stated above, almost always requires a two year recovery period. So, Ryan may
not be the reliable closer that he was in the past. On the bright side, he is being handed the closer’s role and the Blue Jays
are a team that should be involved in many close games. If healthy, which is a big if, Ryan should be able to save around 30
games. Though, its doubtful that he will post an ERA under 4.00 considering that his 95 MPH fastball may be a thing of the
past. As for Jeremy Accardo, he should still have a lot of value. Ryan will not be able to pitch more than two days in a row
and is certainly a injury risk. Accardo should be a candidate for about 5-10 saves from the setup role.
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April 2, 2008
Better Late Than Never
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Within the past week several teams have made last minute acquisitions to fill holes on their rosters before the start of the
season. First, the Rangers signed John Patterson and then the Cubs signed recently released outfielder Reed Johnson.
Only two days ago, the Rangers also acquired Dustin Nippert in an attempt to sure up their bullpen. All three players will
almost certainly be available on your league’s waiver wire. However, the better question is whether any of the three players
have any fantasy baseball value.
John Patterson to the Rangers
In 2005, Patterson was a top ten fantasy pitcher – he posted a 3.13 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and 185 strikeouts in less than 200
hundreds. On March 20th, the Nationals, the worst team in baseball, released Patterson. Patterson has suffered a series of
nerve problems in his right arm and was limited to 15 starts over the past two years. Patterson came to spring training with
hopes of a comeback but his velocity has been down and was completely ineffective. For you Patterson fans (I’m assuming
there must be a few), all is not lost – earlier this week the Texas Rangers signed Patterson to a minor league contract. The
Rangers plan on letting Patterson start off the season in the minors and then inserting him into the rotation if he shows signs
of his old self. At only 30 years old he appears a candidate for a mid-season comeback. First, he’s been reunited with Mark
Connor, his pitching coach during his stellar 2005 season. Second, the Rangers have very little pitching depth and will hand
Patterson a spot in the rotation if he has any success in the minors. In any event, its difficult to imagine that Patterson will be
able to duplicate his numbers from 2005. Though, when Patterson gets called up to the Rangers, he has the potential to be a
valuable pitcher for your fantasy team.
Reed Johnson to the Cubs
On March 25th the Chicago Cubs signed 31 year-old outfielder Reed Johnson. Johnson is coming off a terrible year in which
he batted only .236 with 2 homeruns and 14 runs batted in. In 2006, Reed batted .316 and showed signs of being a quality
fantasy player. Johnson is going to serve as the fourth outfielder for the Cubs and platoon with rookie outfield Felix Pie. If the
23 year-old Pie falters, Johnson will likely be a full-time player. So, Johnson is certainly a candidate to get 300 at bats and
could be a starter by mid season. Thus, Johnson is worth picking up in NL only leagues. But, pick him up now because the
Cubs are going to have a short leash with Pie (i.e. Johnson could be a starter sooner than later). With that being said,
Johnson is not going to put up big power numbers or steal bases. However, he could certainly return to 2006 form and hit .
300 with 10 homeruns and 60 runs batted in.
Rangers get Dustin Nippert from the Diamondbacks for Jose Marte
This is a trade that should hold no relevance to any fantasy team. Nippert is likely going to be a long reliever out of the
Rangers’ bullpen, and Jose Marte is a Class-A pitcher who is long shot to ever reach the major leagues. Nippert is only 26
and has good stuff but he has shown little to indicate that he will even be an average major league pitcher. In 2007, Nippert’s
first full season, he had an ERA of 5.56 and a WHIP of 1.41. Nippert has the potential to turn his career around but at this
point in time, play it safe and leave him on the waiver wire.
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March 24, 2008
One Team’s Trash Can Be Another Team’s Treasure
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Since the start of spring training, the Boston Red Sox and the St. Louis Cardinals have attempted to bolster their pitching
staffs by signing aging, but established, free-agent pitchers. The signings of Bartolo Colon and Kyle Lohse provide the
Red Sox and Cardinals with much needed experience and, more importantly, pitchers capable of winning (Colon and Lohse
have a combined 209 career victories). However, will either pitcher be a productive fantasy baseball player for the upcoming
season? Below are factors to consider when evaluating Colon and Lohse as possible draft day picks.
Bartolo Colon to the Red Sox
On February 24, 2008 the Boston Red Sox signed right handed pitched Bartolo Colon to a minor league contract. The 34
year-old Colon arrived at spring training at a robust 250 + pounds, and only three years after winning the Cy Young Award, is
battling for a spot on the Red Sox major league roster. Injuries to Josh Beckett and Curt Schilling certainly help his chances,
but Colon appears to be a long shot to start the season in the Red Sox rotation. Colon has flashed signs of his old self (hitting
94 mph on the radar gun) but has been mostly, ineffective. Not surprisingly, on March 19th Colon was reassigned to the Red
Sox’s minor league camp. However, the Red Sox indicate that Colon will likely be called up by May 1st. Will Colon be an
effective fantasy pitcher upon his likely return to the major leagues? Colon’s 2006 and 2007 seasons indicate that Colon’s
best days are over (a 5.11 ERA and 6.34 ERA respectively). Though, in 2006 Colon was pitching with shoulder pain, which
resulted in rotator cuff surgery. In 2007 Colon was returning from rotator cuff surgery and wasn’t 100%. At only 34 years-old
there is no reason to believe that when healthy, Colon can at least be an average to above-average major league pitcher.
With that being said, it’s difficult to imagine Colon having a sub 4.50 ERA or a WHIP under 1.40. However, Colon can easily
rack up 12 to 13 wins on an excellent Red Sox team. The bottom line is that Colon is a high risk and low reward proposition
(much like my 401K plan these days) so stay away unless you are desperate for pitching.
Kyle Lohse to the Cardinals
On March 13, 2008 the St. Louis Cardinals signed journeyman pitcher Kyle Lohse. One week later, Lohse looks like a lock to
start the season in the Cardinals rotation. Can Lohse be a quality fantasy pitcher this season? In one word – NO. In fact,
Lohse has never been a quality fantasy pitcher. In 7 major league seasons Lohse has never had an ERA under 4.00, and he
has not won more than 9 games since 2003. There are several factors which suggest that Lohse could finally break out with a
strong season. First, he’s only 29 years-old and has always had a great arm. Second, he has a guaranteed spot in the
rotation, so if healthy, he could be a candidate for double digit wins. Finally, Dave Duncan, the Cardinals’ pitching coach has
had great success in turning around the careers of below average pitchers (Jeff Suppan, Woody Williams, Chris Carpenter).
Of course, we have to remember that Lohse has suffered arm injuries throughout his career and has been an ineffective
pitcher when healthy. Considering Lohse’s track record, it’s safe to say that he does not warrant a pick on draft day.
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March 17, 2008
Familiar Faces in New Places
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The 2007 free agent class was underwhelming to say the least. With the exception of several center fielders, there doesn’t
appear to be an impact fantasy player in the group. Don’t get me wrong, Francisco Cordero should save over 30 games,
and if Eric Gagne can overcome his injury problems, he should also reach the 30 save mark. However, both closers are one
category players (saves). On the other hand, Andruw Jones, Torii Hunter, Aaron Rowand, and Mike Cameron all signed
with new teams this past offseason, and are potential five category fantasy baseball players (average, homeruns, runs score,
runs batted in, stolen bases). While these players can hardly be considered sleepers, their change in scenery could
significantly affect their fantasy baseball value for the upcoming season.
Andruw Jones to the Dodgers
Jones is coming off the worst season of his career after batting .222 with 26 homeruns and 94 runs batted in. Prior to last
season Jones had been one of the most consistent run producers in baseball – seven straight seasons of over 25 homeruns
and 90 runs batted in. While Jones has been in the league since 1996, he is still only 30 years old. So, Jones’s poor 2007 is
likely not the result of deteriorating skills or age related health issues. Dodgers Stadium is certainly not a “hitter’s paradise”
but it actually ranked significantly higher than Turner’s Field as a hitter’s park. (Dodgers Stadium was ranked 12 versus
Turners Field at 24). Additionally, once again Jones will be hitting in a very good lineup and should have plenty of protection
in the order and opportunities to drive in runs. Expect Jones to rebound from 2007 and put up a season on par with his
previous seven. A .260 average with 35 homeruns and 110 runs batted is well within his reach. Unfortunately, don’t expect
more than single digit stolen bases. It seems that Jones has “Bernie Williams Disease” – great speed but no ability (or maybe
desire) to steal bases.
Torii Hunter to the Angels
The 32 year-old Hunter, had a great all around season with the Twins in 2007 (.287, 28, 107, 18). Hunter has been a steady,
yet underappreciated fantasy player over the past seven seasons. In fact, he has posted double digit steals and home runs in
five different seasons, while driving in over 80 runs in six of the past seven seasons. It is easy to imagine that Hunter will
continue to produce impressive numbers with the Angels. He is moving to a hitter friendly stadium with the Angels (Angel
Stadium is ranked as the 8th best stadium for hitters) and will be hitting between Vladimir Guerrero and Garret Anderson.
Expect very similar numbers as last year’s, though his .287 batting average is likely to drop closer to his career average of .
271. A stat line of .275, 25, 110, 15 is a very reasonable expectation for Hunter – even a bit conservative. So, while Hunter is
not going to carry your team, his consistent numbers make him one of the safer players to draft.
Aaron Rowand to the Giants
Rowand is coming off a career season with the Phillies (.309, 27, 89, 6) and at 30 years old he would appear ready for a
monster season. Don’t count on it. Rowand is leaving the friendly confines of Citizen Bank Park for pitcher friendly AT&T Park.
However, AT&T Park is the least of Rowand’s problems. The Giants are a last place team and may have the worst lineup in
baseball (Benji Molina is batting cleanup – enough said). Throw in a big contract and the expectations of replacing Barry
Bonds and you have a draft day bust. In all likelihood, Rowand’s 2008 season will resemble his 2006 season in which he
batted .270 with 13 homeruns and 69 runs batted in. Needless to say, Rowand should only be considered a late round pick.
Mike Cameron to the Brewers
Before any discussion on Cameron, please carefully read this disclaimer - - Cameron has been suspended for the first 25
games due to the use of a banned substance. At best, he will only play in 138 games this season. Now for the good news,
Cameron will likely be ignored on draft day and could be the steal of your draft. For the past nine seasons Cameron has been
a great source of homeruns and stolen bases – he has hit over 20 homeruns and stolen over 20 bases six times. However,
his .250 career batting average has always been Cameron’s Achilles Heel. At 35 its difficult to imagine Cameron finally
learning plate discipline and dramatically raising his batting average. Though, Cameron will be hitting in a terrific Brewer’s
lineup and is guaranteed a starting job (his defense is too good to sit him). Expect a .260 average with over 20 homeruns and
over 20 stolen bases. Not bad for a player who will likely be drafted after Mike Lamb.
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March 10, 2008
Greetings From The Far East
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"Nomomania" hit the United States in the summer of 1995, and ever since, there has been an influx of Japanese players into
MLB. Over the past thirteen years, Japanese players have been a high risk/high reward proposition for fantasy baseball fans.
For every Ichiro or Hideki Matsui, there are numerous overhyped players who crash and burn. Hideki Irabu is a perfect
example of a Japanese player who came to the United States with enormous expectations (known as the "Japanese Nolan
Ryan") but was unable to produce (now known as “that fat toad”). This year there are three Japanese players who have
excelled in Japan, and more importantly, will be handed starring roles on their new teams. So, if you’re a risk taker, consider
the following players on draft day – you may find an impact fantasy player.
Kosuku Fukudome, Chicago Cubs
Fukudome was the prize of this year’s Japanese imports and has, without exaggeration, dominated Japanese baseball over
the past 5 seasons. In 2006, Fukudome just missed winning the triple crown – he hit .353 with 31 home runs and 104 rbis (in
140 games). In 2005, he hit .328 with 28 homeruns and 103 rbis. The scouting report on Fukudome is that he is a gap hitter
with average power, above-average speed and very good plate discipline. How will these attributes translate to the MLB?
Fantasy predictions for Fukudome vary, but most predictions have him hitting between .260 to .290 with 10-20 homeruns, 60
to 90 runs batted in, and around 10 stolen bases. What is certain is that Fukudome will be in the starting lineup for the Cubs,
and he will likely be hitting at the top of a very strong lineup. Don't be surprised to see Fukudome hitting between Alfonso
Soriano and Derrick Lee. Needless to say, Fukudome should see a lot of fastballs. However, in the best case scenario,
Fukudome will likely only be a slightly above-average fantasy player. Keep an eye on him in the middle rounds but don't
expect a future superstar.
Hiroki Kuroda, Los Angeles Dodgers
Kuroda is a 33 year-old pitcher is coming off three consecutive strong seasons in Japan. His best season came in 2006, when
he won 13 games and sported a 1.86 ERA with 143 strike outs in 189 innings. The scouting report on Kuroda is that he
throws around 90-92 MPH with movement and good control. He is a fly ball pitcher who relies on four pitches - a four seam
fastball, slider, splitter, and screwball. Kuroda looks like a shoe-in to be in the Dodger's rotation and will likely be their third
starter. Kuroda will benefit from pitching in cavernous Dodgers Stadium and having an outstanding defensive outfield behind
him (Andruw Jones, Juan Pierre, and Matt Kemp). Realistically, Kuroda can be expected to win about 12-14 games and
maintain a sub 4.00 ERA. His WHIP should be fairly good since he has great control although he will certainly give up his
share of hits. Kuroda is projected to be on par with pitchers such as Joe Blanton and Jeff Suppan. It is unlikely that he’ll be the
steal of your draft but he should be a solid mid to late round pick.
Masahide Kobayashi, Cleveland Indians
The 33 year-old reliever has saved over 20 games over the past seven years in Japan. Kobayashi is armed with a 95 mph
fastball, a devastating slider and a deceptive - no look delivery. He projects to be a very effective reliever in the MLB and has
the talent and the experience, to be a dominating pitcher. He is going to start the season as the set up man for Joe Borowski
but don't be surprised if Kobayashi assumes the closer duties by mid season. Borowski is coming off a terrible season (5.07
ERA and a 1.43 WHIP) and its difficult to imagine that the Indians are going to give him much leeway if he blows a few early
season save opportunities. As was made clear last year, the Indians do not have anyone in the bullpen who can step into the
closer role. So, if Borowski stumbles, Kobayashi could very well be on his way to his eighth straight 20 save season. Consider
him on draft day - you may find a late round closer.
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March 1, 2008
The Off-Season Thus Far
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This past offseason has been one of the busiest in recent years. We have seen the Marlins trade away any hope of being
competitive within this decade, the Mets attempt to erase the memory of their historic September collapse, and the Nationals
prove that they really have no plan for the future. While the blockbuster trades of Johan Santana, Dan Haren, and Miguel
Cabrera have stolen the headlines, there have been a number of transactions that have flown under the radar. The following
four trades, while relatively unnoticed, should have significant fantasy baseball impact for this upcoming season:
The Twins get OF Delmon Young, IF Brendan Harris and OF Jason Pridie from the Rays for RHP Matt Garza, SS
Jason Barlett and RHP Eduardo Morlan.
In a trade based on each team’s needs rather than on money and expiring contracts, the Twins obtained future superstar
Delmon Young for a potential ace, Matt Garza. Young was the first pick of the 2003 MLB draft and has been an offensive
force in the minor leagues (.317 average over three seasons). In his first full season in the majors (.288, 13, 93, 10) he was
labeled a disappointment by many experts. This should give you an indication of the kind of talent the twenty one (21) year
old Young possesses. Minnesota should be a perfect spot for Young to live up to his enormous potential. (remember the
Metrodome made Doug Mientkiewicz a .300 hitter). Young should also benefit from having Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau
hitting in front of him in what should be a relatively deep lineup, so expect a big jump in rbis and runs scored. For the
upcoming season, .300, 30, 100, 100, 20 is well within reach. In fact, Young’s minor league numbers suggest that Young may
be a 30 stolen base threat. (75 sbs in 353 games).
Garza is a 22 year old starting pitcher who has already had two separate stints in the major leagues. In 2007, Garza showed
enormous promise by going 5-7 with a 3.67 E.R.A. in 15 starts. Significantly, for fantasy baseball fans, Garza also showed
that he may be a legitimate strike out pitcher by racking up 67 strikeouts in only 83 innings. The trade to the Devil Rays
guarantees Garza a spot in the rotation and he will have the benefit of pitching behind a very strong lineup. With that being
said, don’t expect Garza to win more than 10-12 games or pitch much more than 150 innings. Though, he should have a sub
4.00 E.R.A., a WHIP in the neighborhood of 1.35 and around 125 strikeouts.
The Cardinals trade 3B Scott Rolen to the Blue Jays for 3B Troy Glaus
In a trade of seemingly washed up (at the very least - rapidly aging) third basemen, the Cardinals obtained thirty one (31)
year old Troy Glaus in exchange for 32 year old Scott Rolen. The trade to St. Louis could result in very strong fantasy
baseball numbers for Glaus, who will be handed the honored position of hitting behind Albert Pujols. In addition, Glaus will
likely benefit from hitting in Busch Stadium- a very good hitters park. If Glaus can remain healthy, which is always a big
concern, he could once again approach 40 homeruns. Remember, Glaus hit 37 homeruns in 2005 and 38 homeruns in 2006.
He should be a solid mid-round pick for roto fans looking for a power threat.
The soon to be 33 year old Rolen is coming off an injury plagued season in which he only batted .265 with 8 homeruns and
58 runs batted in. A switch to the American League may benefit Rolen, who will probably get more rest with the DH. While
Rolen is only three years removed from his MVP caliber season of 2004, its difficult to expect a major turn around in his
performance. Considering his ailing health, his drop in production over the past three years, and the fact that he will now be
hitting behind Vernon Wells rather than Pujols, Rolen will likely be a mediocre fantasy player, at best.
Mets get C Brian Schneider and OF Ryan Church from the Nationals for OF Lastings Milledge
The 31 year old Brian Schneider is coming off a season in which he batted .235 with 6 homeruns and 54 rbis, and appears to
have very little to offer fantasy baseball fans. I’d like to believe that a change in scenery will help Schneider rebound from his
poor season. However, Schneider has always been a pretty mediocre offensive player – his “career year” consisted of .257,
12, 49. It shouldn’t be long until New York fans yearn think for the good times with Paul Lo Duca.
Along with Schneider, the Mets received 29 year old Ryan Church who has shown signs over the previous four years of being
a legitimate middle of the order run producer. Church should receive significant playing time with the Mets and could certainly
be a major fantasy baseball surprise this year. Last year Church hit .272, 15, 70 in only 470 abs. A .280 average with 20 hrs
and 90 rbis is certainly a possibility for Church. So, if you’re looking for a late round sleeper, take a flier on Church.
The third player in this deal, Lastings Milledge (21) has a ton of potential and could one day become a five category fantasy
baseball player. However, Milledge’s breakout season is not likely to take place in 2008. The Nationals have a glut of
outfielders and Milledge’s inability to get on base (.336 OBP in 2007) and high strike out rate (42 strikeouts in 59 games)
indicate that Milledge needs some more time in the minors.
The White Sox acquire OF Carlos Quentin from the Diamondbacks for minor league 1B Chris Carter.
The 25 year old Carlos Quentin started last season as a possible rookie of the year candidate and after a slow start was
demoted to AAA. A trade from the outfield rich Diamondbacks to the White Sox should be a terrific opportunity for Quentin.
With the White Sox, Quentin will likely start in the OF and has the potential to be a fantasy baseball stud. In little over three
years in the minor leagues, Quentin put up a .313 average and a .428 on base percentage. Those are numbers that would
make any “Moneyball” believer drool. Throw in 20 home run potential and Quentin could be the steal of your draft.
As for Chris Carter (not the “he only catches touchdown passes” Cris Carter) he will likely spend the upcoming season in the
minor leagues and will likely have little to no fantasy baseball impact for 2008.
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