GUEST ARTICLE - Jay Barbuto
Up and Over? - March 27, 2008
By: Jay Barbuto
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Mike Lowell has more grey hairs than he has hits. Carmona is out of control, no chance of being successful. What the heck
is an Okajima? In the 2007 season, a handful of players shot to the top of fantasy charts with outstanding numbers. Will
they repeat in ’08, or will they be the newest flash in the pan?
The following players had great ’07 seasons, but can they repeat? leb
Nick Markakis
The 25-year-old Markakis finished the ’07 season with all star-like numbers. He batted an even .300 with 23 home runs and
112 RBIsleb. Throw in his 18 stolen bases, and I’d say Nick had a pretty good season. The only red flag with Markakis is his
tendency to ground into double plays – he did it 22 times last year. Peter Angelos must be pretty happy, as he has
Markakis and Adam Jones as anchors in that outfield for possibly the next 10+ years. Anyway, Markakis is no fluke; this kid
is going to be a stud in the league for years to come and could even be slipping into all-star status this season. If you’re
playing in a head-to head style league, this guy is perfect for your team. He will fill up every aspect of the stat sheet. Not to
mention he could basically get with any girl in the Beltway area, so what’s not to love?
Fausto Carmona
I can still remember it to this day. My dad and I, the only two Indians fans in New England, drove up to Fenway to watch the
Tribe take on the Sox. All was going well until some young kid named Fausto Carmona gave up a walk-off home run to
David Ortiz. At the next game, we saw him give up a walk-off double off the Green Monster to Mark Loretta, making me
question why I was an Indians fan. So when it was announced that Carmona would replace Jake Westbrook in the Indians’
rotation in 2007, I just shook my head. Then out of nowhere, Carmona pitched gem after gem and got himself into Cy
Young contention. He finished the season with a 19-8 record and an ERA of 3.06. He also earned the reputation of having
one of the nastiest sinkers in the game, averaging a speed of 96 MPH. You should expect the same out of Carmona this
season.leb The kid is really young, 25 to be exact, and has already experienced the highs and lows of being a professional
pitcher. Expect that sinking fastball to be fooling hitters all season long once again. Also, if you happen to join a rare
fantasy baseball league that gives you points based on the name of a player, take Carmona first overall! lebHis name rolls
off the tongue beautifully, Fausto Carmona. Nice.
Hideki Okajima
Okajima, the Japanese import turned Red Sox reliever, had a breakout “rookie” season. (It’s hard for me to call a 32 year
old a rookie.) In 66 appearances, Okajima had a 3-2 record with an ERA around 2.22, but his most impressive stat arguably
was his 0.97 WHIP. He also threw in 5 saves, which would help your fantasy team pick up a couple points if he is consistent.
Will he repeat? Doubtful. Okajima is a great pitcher, no doubt, but his performance began to decline at the end of the ’07
season. In September he was 0-1, and his ERA was around 8.10. In the playoffs against the Angels and Indians he was
basically lights out again, but he struggled in the World Series a bit. Sure it sounds like I’m nit-picking the guy’s stats
because the Sox still won the Series, but it seems that teams have started to figure out Okajima, and that is definitely a red
flag when it comes to picking him up in your fantasy draft.
Josh Hamilton
Josh Hamilton was left for dead. We all know the stories by now. Hamilton, the top pick of the artist formerly known as the
Tampa Bay Devil Rays, was suspended multiple times for severe drug use. Hamilton was traded to the Reds for the ’07
season, where he blossomed into a 5-tool player who seemed to have his life on track. In 90 games with the Reds, Hamilton
had 19 HRs with 47 RBIs while batting .292. In this past offseason, Hamilton was traded to the Texas Rangers, where I
expect big numbers. Hamilton seems to have cleaned up, and when you watch him play, you can just see that he’s got it. If
Hamilton didn’t get hurt last season, his numbers would have most likely made him Rookie of The Year. I’m so confident of
his abilities, I predict Hamilton will be an All-Star this season.
Mike Lowell
A few years ago, if you were to tell me that Mike Lowell would finish 5th in the American League MVP voting in 2007, I would
have laughed in your face. After an awful 2005 season with the Marlins, though, Lowell was dealt to Boston in the Beckett
trade, and everything seemed to improve. Lowell, at the young age of 34, ended up being one of the important pieces of
the puzzle that was the 2007 World Series Champion Boston Red Sox. During the ’07 season, Lowell batted .324 with 21
HRs and 120 RBIs. Should you expect the same this year from Lowell? Yeah, you probably should. Lowell is getting older,
and you might think this is the year he finally starts to decline. However, if you look at his stats, he has shown a steady
incline in all categories every season. Expect his stats and grey hair to improve in the 2008 campaign.
As you probably figured out halfway through this piece, I’m not a numbers cruncherleb like most of the other great writers
on this site -- I just speak from the fan aspect. I’ve been to 62 baseball games in my career (I have every ticket to prove it!),
and I’m only 19. I have participated in many fantasy leagues. I may not be able to tell you what Jhonny Peralta’s triples
totals are or what Matt Cain’s WHIP is, but I’d still be able to say who’s going to do well for you and take your squad to the
top of your fantasy league. Cheers!
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A side note to our readers: We were introduced to talented writer Jay when he contacted us after discovering the site for
the first time. While we may eventually reach a limit in the number of columnists that we can feature here at
Fantasybaseball101.com, we encourage interested participants to contact us by going here.
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