|
|
March 11, 2008
The Hidden Gem
|
Although no official games have been played yet, Spring Training provides an opportunity to begin increasing your minor
league acumen. This column will focus on all aspects of the minor leagues, from obscure Single A players not likely to hit the
Bigs until 2010 to Triple A players on the cusp of the majors.
Every level from the Appalachian League up to the majors is designed to pare down the enumerable minor leaguers to a
select group of uber-talented major league talents. Which players we predict will survive the layers of intense filtration and
rise to stardom will be the subject of this column. Rather than rely upon astrological signs or the lunar phase in
prognosticating which players will rise like a phoenix from the depths of rookie ball, we will employ a careful statistical analysis
balanced with opinions from scouts to form a composite report on each prospect.
How does one evaluate a burgeoning talent from the low minors? We choose to focus our analysis on certain categories.
Walk-to-strike out ratio, homers, batting average, and OBP% are important to examine. In addition, we closely examine a
young batter’s doubles to see if those gapers will clear the wall given a little more muscle and maturity. For pitchers, we look
for total dominance. Dominance is indicated by striking out more than a batter per inning, letting up less than a hit per inning,
and yielding relatively few walks. Other statistics like ERA and batting average against are also important. Regardless of
whether we are evaluating a hitter or a pitcher, other variables also contribute to the overall analysis, including the player’s
age, speed at rising through each level of the minors, and when the player was drafted. We believe that looking at all these
factors as a whole will provide a best-guess for who will be the future stars in the majors.
Using this analysis, here are some players that began 2007 in Single A who we believe could develop into future stars:
1. Clayton Kershaw:
This 6’3 (some reports claim 6’4) Texan left-hander pitched in rookie ball in 2006 after being drafted by the LA Dodgers in the
first round of the 2006 Amateur draft. Did I mentioned this 21 year old inked a signing bonus of an estimated 2.3 million
dollars out of high school? Paying early dividends on that robust signing bonus, Kershaw posted impressive numbers in a
limited audition in 2006, featuring a 1.95 ERA with a stingy 0.89 WHIP and 54 K’s to 5 walks in 37 innings pitched. CK
averaged 13.14 K/IP in 2006 and followed the 2006 campaign up with a 2007 of 12.39 K/IP and a 2.77 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in
122 IP. He held batters in single A to a .203 BAA in 2007 and appears to be a dominant presence on the mound at the tender
age of 21. The only thing we found off-putting was that apparently as opposing batters exhibited more poise and skill,
Kershaw tended to pitch around them more often, walking them at a higher clip in each successive level of minor league play.
According to Nate Stephens, Clayton Kershaw “often sits in the low-90s, pumping it up to 96 when necessary, and commands
the pitch well. However, he does have his deficiencies. While both his curveball and changeup are plus pitches when they're
on, he struggles controlling them more often than not. It's a large part of the reason he walked 67 batters in just 122 innings
this season. Since he's so young and has so much talent, it's not something to be concerned about yet. Kershaw could
develop into a front-line starter with even below average command. Simply average command might allow him to be an ace,
and there's still plenty of time for that to happen.” There’s a lot to be excited about since the 21 year old left-hander himself,
aspires to be like Johan Santana.
2. Fautino De Los Santos:
Like Kershaw, the Chicago White Sox top pitching prospect and future ace right hander is a mere 21 years old. Having
conquered single A and double A in his first year of pro ball during 2007, De Los Santos posted a 2.65 ERA with a 0.92 WHIP
in 122 innings pitched. What made Fautino’s performance so unique is that during 122.1 innings, De Los Santos only allowed
69 hits, walking 43 and striking out 153 batters. All of these numbers suggest dominance at both single A and AA. ‘Tino was
elected to pitch in the 2007 Futures Game, representing the parent club. At 6’0 and with similar numbers, ‘Tino projects to
become the next Roy Oswalt, barring elbow or rotator cuff hurdles.
3. Matt Antonelli:
In just his second year of pro ball at 22 years old, San Diego Padres first round draft pick Matt Antonelli, 2B, posted 21
homers, 28 steals, an .894 OPS with a .307/.404/.491 breakdown. More remarkable than his raw numbers was his plate
patience at such a young age. Antonelli had a 53:58 BB:K ratio at single A while maintaining a 30:36 BB:K ratio in AA. He hit
for similar power and speed after making the jump to AA, and actually hit righties better than lefties, indicating a lesser future
tendency toward landing in a platoon role in the middle infield. Many insiders in the Padres organization believe that the
parent club traded Josh Barfield and signed Marcus Giles in an effort to keep second base open for the hot-hitting and slick
stealing Antonelli. Like many heavy hitting middle infielders, Antonelli needs to keep his fielding skills well-honed to avoid a
position switch to OF, or risk becoming the dreaded “utility infielder.”
|
March 1, 2008
First Base Talent In The Low Minors
|
First base is considered by most baseball fans to be the least defensively-demanding position on the diamond. As a former
first baseman, I take issue with that opinion! Nevertheless, it is undeniable that in baseball today, save for Doug Mentkiewicz,
very few first baseman are employed for their gloves alone. Above all else, first base is where a team’s core offensive threat
can be found. Players like Albert Pujols, David Ortiz, Ryan Howard, Justin Morneau and Prince Fielder are examples of this
fact. Although there are currently a dearth for hard-hitting first basemen in the minors, this article will examine those minor
leaguers manning first base who are worth watching entering 2008.
1. “Hank” Aaron Bates (Boston)
Drafted in the third round of the 2006 draft by the Boston Red Sox, Aaron Bates has lived up to his billing as an offensively
charged first baseman. At 6’4 and 232 pounds, Bates is an imposing physical presence at the plate.
Bates is often profiled as just another typical power-hitting first baseman. In truth, Bates’ power to the opposite field is
noteworthy, as is his plate discipline. Though his swing can get long sometimes, Aaron Bates appears to make necessary
adjustments at the plate and brings with him an above average glove at first. In an interview with David Laurila, Bates’ had this
to say when asked about his own approach at the plate, “I have some power, but I consider myself a hitter first--I look at
myself as a disciplined hitter more than a power hitter. You won’t see me taking wild swings. I feel that I have good bat control
and a good idea of what I want to do at the plate.”
Whether he likes to admit it or not, Aaron Bates has always been something of a slugger. In college at University of North
Carolina, Bates tore up the NCAA, totaling 24 homers and 44 doubles in 602 at amateur bats. His sophomore year, Bates
showed he was capable of posting a high batting average also, notching .425 for the season. Always a disciplined hitter,
Bates took his poise and patience to pro ball in 2006.
In 2006, Aaron Bates divided his year between the New York-Penn and the South Atlantic leagues. Between them, and after
already hitting 10 homers in his final year at UNC earlier that season, Bates hit 7 long-balls and 15 two-baggers in his first 250
professional at-bats. That power, added to his 27:47 BB:K ratio, made Bates a middle-of-the-lineup batter on-arrival.
Bates excelled in 2007, in just his second year in professional ball. After beginning the season in the California League (high
A ball, where Bates made league history on May 19 when he belted four home runs in the same game), Aaron got promoted
to the Eastern League (AA). Bates earned that promotion to AA ball by hitting 24 homers, 21 doubles, and batting in 88 RBI in
just 373 at-bats in A ball. He also batted an ostentatious .332 prior to his promotion. Following that impressive performance
up with 4 homers and 9 doubles in just 91 at bats after his promotion is just another on a growing list of reasons that make
Aaron Bates someone worth watching closely.
2. Kyle Blanks (San Diego)
This towering 6’6, 281 pound, 21-year old first basemen reminds us of a young Carlos Delgado. Like Delgado, Blanks is an
intimidating physical specimen who has the potential to be a middle of the lineup threat. With his high batting average and
OBP%, and ability to hit for power, Blanks could become a solid contributor to your fantasy team circa 2010.
Blanks began his professional career in 2006 with a solid, if unspectacular showing. In 308 at bats in A ball, he hit 10 long
balls, and 20 two-baggers with a .292 batting average and a .382 OBP%. Blanks showed a good eye, a knack for making
contact, and promising power.
Last year Blanks improved upon his 2006 campaign. Now, in high A ball, Blanks hit .301 with 24 homers, 100 rbi’s, and a.380
OBP in 465 at bats. Along with his impressive home run totals, Blanks raked 31 doubles, causing scouts to salivate over his
growing power. His performance was good enough to be named by Baseball America in early October as a High Class A All-
Star.
There are several other reasons Blanks is intriguing. First, Blanks hits well off both righties and lefties, lessening the chance
of being forced into a platoon situation. In 2007, he hit .370 with 1 homer and 11 doubles in 107 at bats against lefties, and
280 with 23 homers and 20 doubles in 465 at bats against righties. Second, for a big guy, Blanks runs pretty well; in 2007 he
stole 11 bags (got caught twice) and managed four triples. It remains to be seen whether he will continue to steal as he
advances, but we expect that he won’t.
We like Blanks because he is a contact hitter who hits for power. Many power hitters never make it to the Bigs because they
are Rob Deer types; they have great raw power, but strike out a ton and hit .220. Although Blanks whiffs more than we usually
like (98 in ’07), he is a hit machine and walks a decent amount. In fact, Blanks’ batting average and OBP% have been
consistent throughout his two seasons in the minors. Moreover, his 6-6 frame, combined with a prodigious amount of doubles
indicates that that he should develop more power as he matures.
Many hitters experience a drop-off in batting average after reaching the majors, so we think if Bates continues to develop
(and is given a chance to start) it is reasonable to expect a norm of 280-25-80-5 with an OBP% in the 365 range on the major
league level. The talent is there, but the bigger question is whether he will positionally blocked with Adrian Gonzalez manning
first base with the Padres for the foreseeable future.
|
| |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
© Fantasy Baseball 101. All Rights Reserved.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
 |
|
|
|
|
