In 1994 Karl “Tuffy” Rhodes hit three home runs off Dwight Gooden on opening day and every fantasy baseball owner
raced to pick up this unheralded rookie free agent. Conversely, Garret Atkins had an atrocious first two months of his
2007 season and many owners in mixed leagues dropped him for less talented players. In both scenarios owners made
poor and hasty decisions. Rhodes finished the year with only eight homers, and Atkins produced another stellar season
(.301-25-111-83-3). Owners make these mistakes every year because they react on impulse, rather than by putting stats
in perspective. So, the important question to ask is: when do stats really begin to matter?
From your fantasy baseball team’s perspective, the golden rule for Roto leagues is that stats do not begin to matter until
the first week of June. Until that time your Roto team will fluctuate in the standings, often drastically from day-to-day.
Things begin to stabilize in early June as players who started off hot begin to cool down and vice versa. Until that time do
not fret if your team is mired in the bottom of the standings. Likewise, do not get overly cocky if you are leading the pack
by a dozen points.
Head-to-head leagues have a different golden rule: stats count from day one. Starting with the very first week of the
season, your team is going up against another league team. At the end of the week you get a “W” or and “L”. Since you
need to compile as many “W’s” as possible, you cannot afford to ignore stats in April. Every win is valuable and will help
get you to the playoffs, so pay particular attention to players who are strong starters, slow starters, and review favorable
matchups.
Individual player statistics are more difficult to evaluate. Some players may be playing over their head, while others may
be at the genesis of their “career year”. Some wily veterans who are underperforming may never recover, whereas others
will return to their statistical norm in short order. Here’s a quick evaluation of players doing exceptionally well or poorly
and whether it is fact or fiction.
1. Derek Lee – 59 at-bats, .390-6-13-0-13
Fact. The power is back baby! A year and a half removed from a broken wrist, Lee has regained the stroke that made
him one of the league’s most feared hitters. While .390 is about 70 points higher than we expect, Lee is a good batting
average hitter who should be a reliable stat machine all season long.
2. Mike Jacobs – 53 at-bats, .321-6-12-1-10
Fiction. There’s no doubt that Jacobs has power, but he’s currently on pace for about 60 dingers. A more realistic bet is
20-25, with a sub .300 batting average.
3. Michael Bourne – 55 at-bats, .236-2-4-8-6
Fact. Bourne is on pace to swipe 80 bases, and yet, he’s got a miserable .323 OBP%. Imagine what he would do if he got
on base more often!
4. Magglio Ordonez -- .291-2-6-0-5
Fact. This is more like it. If you were expecting Ordonez to repeat his unbelievable 2007 season, think again. A more
realistic expectation is .300-25-100.
5. Vernon Wells -- .345-3-14-1-14
Fact. Wells had an offseason in 2007, and scared off many fantasy owners come draft day this year. But Wells is in the
prime of his career now and has a boatload of talent. Although his .345 batting average is a bit inflated, you should still
expect a big improvement this year.
6. Zack Greinke – 24 IP, 3 wins, 0.75 ERA, 9 K’s
Undecided. Clearly, we don’t expect him to win every start or finish with a sub 1.00 ERA, especially while playing for the
Royals. But Greinke has improved every season since 2005. A former first round draft pick, Greinke is now 24 years of
age and poised for a breakout. We expect the gradual improvement to continue – emphasis on gradual.
7. Ben Sheets – 23 IP, 2 wins, 1.17 ERA, 20 K’s
Fact. Sheets is one of the most talented pitchers in baseball, but has struggled with injuries over the past few seasons.
When he first got to the Bigs, the Brewers had about as much power as Glass Joe from Mike Tyson’s Punch Out. Fast
forward to 2008, and the Brewers have guys who can rake, like Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder. If Sheets can stay health,
he could win big with close to 200 strike outs.
8. Roy Oswalt – 22.1 IP, 0 wins, 6.85 ERA, 15 K’s
Fiction. Ouch, a terrible start for Oswalt. Oswalt is much better than this, but most alarming is the 35 hits he’s given up in
only 22 IP. We expect Oswalt to rebound, but a word of caution: Oswalt’s ERA and K’s have declined in each of the past
three seasons. We expect that regression to continue, but Oswalt is still one of the better options in the National League.
9. Brian Bannister – 21 IP, 3 wins, 0.86 ERA, 13 K’s
Fact. Okay, this one is a bit controversial. Back in the pre-season, most Roto experts were predicting doom and gloom
for Banniister. But Bannister has been defying the experts since he made his major league debut in 2006. While
Bannister is not a strikeout pitcher, he continues to let up fewer hits than innings pitched, and maintains a respectable
ERA. Until he proves otherwise, there’s no reason to doubt his ability.
10. Felix Hernandez – 21.2 IP, 1 win, 1.66 ERA, 16 K’s
Fact. Hernandez looks poised to finally have the season that have had scouts salivating since his major debut at age 19
in 2005. We expect a 3.25 ERA, 16 wins, and 180 K’s.
Remaining calm and collected during a rough first month will pay dividends later in the season, especially if your
competitors make some rash moves. Keep a proper perspective and you can find many opportunities out there. For
players starting poor, that you expect to ultimately do well, consider trading for them while they are undervalued.
Conversely, if you find yourself with this year’s Tuffy Rhodes, trade him now while he still has value. Other than that, play
the waiting game and by the first week of June you’ll have an accurate picture of how good your team really is.
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