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April 19, 2008
When Do Stats Begin to Matter?
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In 1994 Karl “Tuffy” Rhodes hit three home runs off Dwight Gooden on opening day and every fantasy baseball owner raced
to pick up this unheralded rookie free agent. Conversely, Garret Atkins had an atrocious first two months of his 2007 season
and many owners in mixed leagues dropped him for less talented players. In both scenarios owners made poor and hasty
decisions. Rhodes finished the year with only eight homers, and Atkins produced another stellar season (.301-25-111-83-
3). Owners make these mistakes every year because they react on impulse, rather than by putting stats in perspective. So,
the important question to ask is: when do stats really begin to matter?
From your fantasy baseball team’s perspective, the golden rule for Roto leagues is that stats do not begin to matter until the
first week of June. Until that time your Roto team will fluctuate in the standings, often drastically from day-to-day. Things
begin to stabilize in early June as players who started off hot begin to cool down and vice versa. Until that time do not fret if
your team is mired in the bottom of the standings. Likewise, do not get overly cocky if you are leading the pack by a dozen
points.
Head-to-head leagues have a different golden rule: stats count from day one. Starting with the very first week of the season,
your team is going up against another league team. At the end of the week you get a “W” or and “L”. Since you need to
compile as many “W’s” as possible, you cannot afford to ignore stats in April. Every win is valuable and will help get you to
the playoffs, so pay particular attention to players who are strong starters, slow starters, and review favorable matchups.
Individual player statistics are more difficult to evaluate. Some players may be playing over their head, while others may be at
the genesis of their “career year”. Some wily veterans who are underperforming may never recover, whereas others will
return to their statistical norm in short order. Here’s a quick evaluation of players doing exceptionally well or poorly and
whether it is fact or fiction.
1. Derek Lee – 59 at-bats, .390-6-13-0-13
Fact. The power is back baby! A year and a half removed from a broken wrist, Lee has regained the stroke that made him
one of the league’s most feared hitters. While .390 is about 70 points higher than we expect, Lee is a good batting average
hitter who should be a reliable stat machine all season long.
2. Mike Jacobs – 53 at-bats, .321-6-12-1-10
Fiction. There’s no doubt that Jacobs has power, but he’s currently on pace for about 60 dingers. A more realistic bet is 20-
25, with a sub .300 batting average.
3. Michael Bourne – 55 at-bats, .236-2-4-8-6
Fact. Bourne is on pace to swipe 80 bases, and yet, he’s got a miserable .323 OBP%. Imagine what he would do if he got on
base more often!
4. Magglio Ordonez -- .291-2-6-0-5
Fact. This is more like it. If you were expecting Ordonez to repeat his unbelievable 2007 season, think again. A more
realistic expectation is .300-25-100.
5. Vernon Wells -- .345-3-14-1-14
Fact. Wells had an offseason in 2007, and scared off many fantasy owners come draft day this year. But Wells is in the
prime of his career now and has a boatload of talent. Although his .345 batting average is a bit inflated, you should still
expect a big improvement this year.
6. Zack Greinke – 24 IP, 3 wins, 0.75 ERA, 9 K’s
Undecided. Clearly, we don’t expect him to win every start or finish with a sub 1.00 ERA, especially while playing for the
Royals. But Greinke has improved every season since 2005. A former first round draft pick, Greinke is now 24 years of age
and poised for a breakout. We expect the gradual improvement to continue – emphasis on gradual.
7. Ben Sheets – 23 IP, 2 wins, 1.17 ERA, 20 K’s
Fact. Sheets is one of the most talented pitchers in baseball, but has struggled with injuries over the past few seasons.
When he first got to the Bigs, the Brewers had about as much power as Glass Joe from Mike Tyson’s Punch Out. Fast
forward to 2008, and the Brewers have guys who can rake, like Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder. If Sheets can stay health, he
could win big with close to 200 strike outs.
8. Roy Oswalt – 22.1 IP, 0 wins, 6.85 ERA, 15 K’s
Fiction. Ouch, a terrible start for Oswalt. Oswalt is much better than this, but most alarming is the 35 hits he’s given up in
only 22 IP. We expect Oswalt to rebound, but a word of caution: Oswalt’s ERA and K’s have declined in each of the past three
seasons. We expect that regression to continue, but Oswalt is still one of the better options in the National League.
9. Brian Bannister – 21 IP, 3 wins, 0.86 ERA, 13 K’s
Fact. Okay, this one is a bit controversial. Back in the pre-season, most Roto experts were predicting doom and gloom for
Banniister. But Bannister has been defying the experts since he made his major league debut in 2006. While Bannister is not
a strikeout pitcher, he continues to let up fewer hits than innings pitched, and maintains a respectable ERA. Until he proves
otherwise, there’s no reason to doubt his ability.
10. Felix Hernandez – 21.2 IP, 1 win, 1.66 ERA, 16 K’s
Fact. Hernandez looks poised to finally have the season that have had scouts salivating since his major debut at age 19 in
2005. We expect a 3.25 ERA, 16 wins, and 180 K’s.
Remaining calm and collected during a rough first month will pay dividends later in the season, especially if your competitors
make some rash moves. Keep a proper perspective and you can find many opportunities out there. For players starting
poor, that you expect to ultimately do well, consider trading for them while they are undervalued. Conversely, if you find
yourself with this year’s Tuffy Rhodes, trade him now while he still has value. Other than that, play the waiting game and by
the first week of June you’ll have an accurate picture of how good your team really is.
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April 3, 2008
How To Utilize Your Bench
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The best fantasy baseball owners are able to construct a bench that significantly helps their team throughout the season.
Too many owners haphazardly draft their bench players without any rhyme or reason. But to win at fantasy baseball, your
bench should be an extension of your overall strategy for dominance. There is no one strategy that applies to all leagues.
Rather, your bench strategy should be customized to the rules of your league. This article examines the nuances of drafting
a solid bench.
1. Weekly Transaction Leagues
Weekly transaction leagues place a premium on two-start pitchers. Because starting pitchers pitch once every five games,
every three weeks or so they will pitch twice in one week, giving them (and your team) an opportunity for an extra win.
Accordingly, one important strategy in a weekly transaction league is to stock your bench full of starting pitchers. Then, rotate
the starters into your active roster in weeks where they pitch twice.
Many Roto players eschew this strategy, in favor of frequent activity in the free agent market. Instead of having starting
pitchers on their bench, these owners are constantly dropping a player or two and picking up any starting pitchers available
who are scheduled to pitch twice in the week ahead. Such a strategy is a mistake unless it is the end of the season and wins
will make or break your season. Free agent pitchers very well may get you an extra win, but it often comes with a severely
inflated ERA and Whip. The better move is to have quality starting pitchers on your bench that you can rotate into your active
lineup without jeopardizing your ability to do well in other categories.
Stacking your bench with starting pitchers is particularly important in points leagues, where “wins” are often more valuable
than other statistical categories.
An important caveat, however, is to review carefully the rules of your league. Many leagues impose a maximum number of
innings pitched permitted by a team. If you have too many starters your team may exceed that number, which could
dramatically hurt your ability to win.
2. Daily Transaction Leagues
There are several strategies to choose from in daily transaction leagues. Two common ones are:
A) The middle relief gambit. This theory suggests that you stack your bench with middle relievers. Once the season
starts, you put all of your relievers on your active roster and rotate your starters between your bench and active team when
they are scheduled to pitch.
The benefit of this strategy is that middle relievers typically have lower ERA’s and WHIP’s than their starting pitcher
counterparts. If your roster is replete with guys pitching 1 shutout inning a day, your ERA and WHIP will benefit significantly.
Likewise, it enables your team to rack up the K’s even when your starters are on one of their days of rest.
B) The RBI gambit. Similar to the middle relief gambit, this theory advises owners to make maximum use of their roster.
For example, if you have Lance Berkman as your starting first basemen but the Astros do not play today, why not start
someone in Berkman’s place rather than have his roster spot lay fallow for that one game? ¬Thus, you should stack your
bench with utility type players (think Ty Wigginton) who qualify at multiple positions. This way, as players have a day off, or
are day-to-day, you can substitute another player in his place, and still accumulate RBI’s, and maybe even the occasional
homer or stolen base. Alternatively, find a player who is in a platoon and only plays against lefties. Like real life, feel free to
start this player only against lefties when he is sure to start.
Again, it is important to know the rules of your league. Many leagues have restricts on the number of games any roster spot
may accumulate. Typically, the rules say that a roster spot will not be permitted to play more than 162 games a season. But
since most players miss at least a few games during the season you can still employ this strategy, despite these restrictions.
3. Multi-Position Players
The multi-position bench player gives your team the most flexibility to deal with the uncertainty that can often arise during a
162 game baseball season. At some point in the season players on your team will get hurt, go into a bad slump, or lose their
job. By having players that qualify at multiple positions on your bench, you will be prepared to deal with these problems as
they come, hopefully without losing too many statistics. This strategy also applies for pitchers. Players that qualify as both
starters and relievers (see Chad Billingsley in ‘’07 or Brett Myers in ’08) give your team added flexibility. While Billingsley and
Myers will not be available in a reserve draft, there are always others that pop up during the course of the year.
4. The Hail Mary Strategy
Probably the most common – and most rewarding – strategy is the Hail Mary strategy, even though I’m the only one I know to
call it that. The Hail Mary strategy is the search for fantasy baseball nirvana – the free agent pickup that goes on to win the
league MVP. Last year for many teams, it was Ryan Braun or even Chris Young.
The idea is to use your bench in search of the next unexpected breakout player. Keep picking up players until someone
breaks out. Look for players with strong minor league records, or players who have done well on a limited basis in the majors
and will soon be getting more playing time. The windfall you get just could get you a league championship.
This strategy is also used effectively to obtain saves. Closers are typically the most volatile position in the game, and there
are a plethora of setup men and middle relievers waiting for the opportunity to move into that role. Every season there are a
number of fantasy baseball owners who benefit from their middle man turning into their team’s closer. Last season it
happened with Matt Capps, Rafael Soriano, and Kevin Gregg. This season it could happen to Rafael Betancourt, Jonathan
Broxton, Heath Bell, or Scott Linebrink.
5. The Future Closer Strategy
This strategy is similar to the Hail Mary option, but less risky. Here, the idea is to draft setup men who are actually good
pitchers, rather than obtaining a team full of relievers – regardless of their talent – with the prayer that they become a closer,
draft. Players like Betancourt, Broxton and Bell are solid pitchers who will help your ERA, WHIP, and also get K’s. Stack your
bench with these guys, and there’s a decent chance one or more will get the closer’s job at some point during the season.
Moreover, with the talent they have they are more likely to keep the job once they get it. And this beats paying for saves in
the third or fourth round of a draft!
No matter what format you play in, your overall strategy should include a plan for your bench. Think about what your team
needs. Is your team weak in stolen bases? If so, maybe Joey Gathright or Reggie Willits, or Nyjer Morgan could be useful. If
you expect to struggle in saves, the Future Closer Strategy could be your best bet. Or, combine these strategies into a bench
that is as versatile as possible. Whatever you choose, having a strategy for your bench will help your team compete for your
league’s fantasy baseball championship.
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March 26, 2008
Auction Day Strategies
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Doing well in a fantasy baseball auction involves more than just showing up with a basic knowledge of players and stats.
There are many subtle and not-so-subtle strategies to use that can help you draft a great team. In this week’s article I
examine a few of the more important strategies for you to employ.
1. Assign Dollar Values to Every Player
This is the most obvious and important point when preparing for an auction and should really be done prior to auction day.
Rank every player in order at every position and assign a dollar value to everyone. So, if Chase Utley is your top choice for
Second Base, he should be listed first under a column entitled “Second Base.” He should be assigned a greater value than
any other person on that list. If, Brian Roberts is the second best second basemen he should have the second highest dollar
value, and so on.
There are dozens of methodologies you can use to assign dollar values. The easiest and most convenient method is to use a
website’s or magazine’s rankings. Many do this and then tweak the values according to their own beliefs. Alternatively, you
can entirely create your own values. It does not matter how you do it, provided you are comfortable with the values you’ve
assigned. In the beginning of the auction, stay within a dollar or two of your pre-assigned values. Toward the middle and end
of the auction you may (and probably should) deviate on your values based on your team’s needs and financial position.
2. Nominating Players
In most auctions, team owners take turns nominating players for the group to bid on. A player named is automatically
nominated for at least $1, but often the bidding may start much higher than that. Whom should you name when it is your team’
s turn to nominate a player? There are two popular strategies.
First, always nominate high profile players whom you do not want. The idea is for the rest of the league to spend money on
players that you do not want, leaving you with more money to spend on players you are targeting. For example, if you have no
intention of spending more than $35 on a player, you may nominate Alex Rodriguez figuring he’ll be too rich for your blood
and you would rather your opponents spend all their money in the beginning of the auction. The faster the rest of the league
spends their money, the better the financial position you will be in. For this reason, many owners purposely remain low and
avoid spending their money during the first third of the draft.
The second strategy is to nominate players whom you do not want and are good, but not the best, at their position. For
example, if you are targeting Garret Atkins as your third baseman, perhaps you’ll nominate Adrian Beltre, Ryan Zimmerman,
or Troy Glaus. By allowing others to fill their third base roster spot with these guys, they will be less likely to bid against you for
Atkins.
These strategies are often used in conjunction with one another. For example, owners may use the first strategy at the
beginning of the draft, and then utilize the second strategy toward the end of the draft. This is particularly effective if everyone
has their second baseman slot filled, except for you and another team. If you nominate the player you don’t want, the other
team may bid on him leaving you with the player you wanted all along. But beware of getting stuck with the player you
nominate if the other team does not make a bid!
3. Be a Fantasy Baseball Accountant
Throughout the auction you should keep track of how much money your opponents have spent, and which roster spots they
have filled. It is tedious and requires a lot of work (if an online site doesn’t do it for you), but it is crucial to having a successful
auction. Knowing what positions your opponents need to fill, and how much money they can afford to spend on their players,
will help you determine whether you can be outbid on a particular player. It also will help you decide whether to nominate a
player you want, or wait until later in the draft when you are in a better financial position vis-à-vis the other team owners.
4. Be a Rotobot
The fantasy baseball version of being a fembot, being a rotobot, means taking emotion out of the equation. Everyone wants
to draft players from his or her favorite team, but that is not necessarily a good strategy if you intend to win. If you are a
diehard Indians fan, and Grady Sizemore is your favorite player, do not continue bidding on him if you cannot afford it, or if he
is being overvalued by your league. The same is true for those sleepers whom you think nobody knows about. The whole
point of a sleeper is that you are getting excellent value for a player that cost you very little. If you get into a bidding war over
a sleeper, it defeats the purpose. Pay attention to the pre-assigned values you’ve set for players and the needs of your team.
Leave emotion out of it.
5. Timing
The most climactic part of the auction is when the auctioneer begins the countdown . . . going once. . . going twice . . . and
everyone in the room is waiting to see if the player is sold or a last-second bid is made. This raises the question: when should
you call out your bid – at the beginning of the auctioneer’s recitation, or immediately before he announces “sold?”
We suggest mixing it up. When bidding up other teams, it is good to participate early on in the bidding. If there is a player you
want, sometimes it is beneficial to you – and disheartening to the other teams bidding – to yell out your bid at the very last
second. But you need to mix it up so that other team owners do not sense a pattern in your methodology.
6. No Easy Sales
Part of the fun of an auction league is bidding up your friends on players they want. There should be no easy sales: If a
player is about to be bought for far less than he is worth, bid on him and force the other team owners to spend more of their
money to get him. Play on people’s prejudices. If you know half of the players in your league root for the Yankees, bid up
Derek Jeter. Likewise, if a player has been hyped all spring, bid him up too!
Bidding up league owners takes practice, because you do not want to get stuck with the player you are bidding up. Unless you
are confident a team owner will pay more than you, be sure not to bid up a player greater than the value you assigned him
prior to the draft. That way even if you get stuck with him, you will not have grossly overpaid.
7. Working With a Partner
Working with a partner at a live, in-person auction is a challenge because you must be able to communicate quickly and
efficiently without letting other team owners in on your strategy. Many leagues that allow partners will often force the
partnership to designate a spokesperson for the auction. The spokesperson will be the only person permitted to make a bid
during the auction.
There are many strategies to use in leagues that do not require one spokesperson. Facial expressions, in particular, can
throw off other teams. For example, if there is a player you really want, let your partner do the bidding on him. Then, if the
bidding is almost done and it is at a good price, shake your head as if you’re angry that you are about to get stuck with him.
Fake arguments can also benefit your team. A number of years ago I partnered with a friend and we had a prearranged plan
to get a young shortstop named Travis Fryman. I was midway through nominating Shawn Hillegas for a $1 when my partner
interrupted me and named Fryman for a buck. I stood up, and screamed at him, “Why the hell did you nominate that rookie
scrub? He stinks and won’t even play this year!” I ran out of the room, and everyone apparently assumed Fryman was terrible,
so they let us have him for a dollar. I walked back into the room and slapped my partner five while the rest of the league
looked on, dumbfounded. Fryman went on to hit 21 homers with 91 RBIs that season.
8. Declare Bankruptcy
In a fantasy baseball auction you are typically given $260 from which to purchase your team. Spend it all! If you have money
left over at the end of the auction, you did something wrong. That money could have been spent to get better players.
Managing your money in an auction is not easy and takes practice. The best fantasy baseball owners know how to maximize
their budget to obtain the best players for the best value.
Most fantasy baseball players walk into an auction with pre-assigned player values and little else. Maybe they have a
magazine or two by their side, but they do not have any understanding of tactics that can give them an advantage. If you use
the strategies listed above, you will have a significant advantage over your competitors. And the best part about it is the rest
of the league won’t even know what hit them. Happy bidding.
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March 12, 2008
Auction League Strategies, Part II
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Last week we focused on common and effective fantasy baseball strategies to try out on auction day. This week we continue
where we left off, but also include a few off-the-wall strategies that some have used over the years.
1. Almost-All Relief Strategy
One of the oldest tricks in the book, this strategy was the impetus behind the minimum innings pitched rule that most leagues
now use.
In its original form, a fantasy baseball owner would draft an entire pitching staff of relief pitchers. The theory was relief pitchers
generally have better ERA’s, WHIP’s, and saves than starters. Although this means sacrificing, or “throwing,” wins as a
category, many team owners used this strategy to obtain 31/40 points in a 4x4 league. Even in a 5x5 league, owners would
have a good chance of obtaining 32/50 pitching points, typically good enough to be competitive. In H2H leagues it means
dominating three out of the five pitching categories. If, however, you are in a “points” league, this strategy could be disastrous.
This strategy is more effective in an auction format than a draft because relief pitchers are cheaper than starters. By targeting
closers, set-up men and middle relievers – and avoiding high priced starters like Johan Santana, Jake Peavy, or C.C.
Sabathia – your roto team can get a pitching staff that will dominate for less than $60. That leaves a monstrous $200 to focus
on hitting. The end result should be the best hitting roster in the league, and a pitching staff capable of 31-41 points,
depending on whether you are using a 4x4 or 5x5 format.
The Almost-All Relief Strategy is slightly different from the all-relief strategy. Now that leagues have minimum innings pitched
requirements (typically 1000), we have had to adapt to the times. A team of nine relievers will not meet the requirement, so
you are forced to draft starters. Here’s how to do it. Target two to three starters who have good ERA’s and WHIP’s, are
relatively inexpensive (e.g. under $10), and do not worry about wins. For example, Mark Buehrle, Matt Cain, Gil Meche, and
Ian Snell are good candidates for this strategy. Long relievers and spot starters also can be used (think Chad Billingsley’s
2007 season). In addition, try to get relievers who have high strikeout numbers (think Heath Bell, Jonathan Broxton, JC
Romero, and Rafael Betancourt).
The end result should be a team that (a) meets its innings pitched requirement, (b) wins ERA, WHIP, and saves, (c) does
better than expected in K’s, maybe 2-3 points), (d) gets crushed in wins, and (e) has plenty of money to spend on its hitting.
Throwing a category is risky, and if anything goes wrong during the season you can be dead in the water without a raft, but
this strategy has been known to work for gutsy fantasy baseball owners who do it right.
2. Balls to the Wall
I mention this strategy as a cautionary tale of what not to do. I have seen it used many times and I have never seen it work.
Let me repeat – never. But because many owners try it, I will mention it. And note that this “Balls to the Wall” strategy is
different than the one for draft leagues mentioned in the draft edition of Strategy Session.
The premise behind this theory is that you should purchase the three best hitters and two best pitchers in the draft –
regardless of their cost. In 2008, this means you may pursue Johan Santana, Jake Peavy, Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes, and
Alex Rodriguez. After those five purchases you will have likely spent $200 out your $260 bank, leaving you with an average of
$3 per player for the rest of your roster. For the rest of the auction you are at the mercy of every other team owner who can
outbid you. You are left searching for undervalued players and sleepers to fill out your roster. But if a player is a sleeper,
chances are someone else knows about him too and can outbid you for his services.
Admittedly, this strategy has a better chance of success in a 10 team mixed league because there will be some decent talent
available for very low prices at the end of the auction. But I would rather have a roster of 23 very good players, then a roster
of 5 studs, and 18 duds. Plus, what happens if one of your golden five gets injured? You’re screwed! Compare this to my NL
only league last year. I drafted Chris Carpenter as my top pitcher and he missed the entire season with an injury. I still won the
league because I had a well-balanced team that could partially compensate for losing Carpenter.
Interestingly, there are times when fantasy players use this strategy by accident. Having no preconceived plan to go after the
top five players in the game irrespective of their cost, people get carried away in an auction and pursue the best players on
the market. The next thing they know they have a fraction of their roster filed and only a couple bucks per player for everyone
else. But the result is the same – unless you have extraordinary luck, your team will finish toward the bottom of the league.
The morale of this strategy is the benefit of bidding discipline. In fact, this strategy is diametrically opposed to the strict dollar
restrictions of the Conservative Approach profiled last week.
3. Sleeper Cell
This strategy is based on psychology. The idea is that at the beginning of an auction everyone has $260 to spend. Nobody
feels encumbered by lofty salaries, so people tend to bid more money in the first third of a draft. Thus, it is better to have
everyone spend their money on overvalued players in the first few rounds of an auction, and then come out of nowhere – like
a sleeper cell – and whack your opponents by bidding aggressively in the middle of the draft when other teams are beginning
to pinch pennies.
Here are some guidelines for following this strategy: (A) In the beginning of the draft nominate high profile players that you do
not want. (B) Also in the beginning of the draft, bid up players that you do not want to ensure others spend more money – but
do not do it too aggressively or you will end up with the very player you are avoiding. (C) The strategy does not mean you
should abstain from any purchases in the first part of the draft. Rather, the key is to ensure that others are spending a lot
more than you. Accordingly, if a player you want is about to be sold at a good value, feel free to pursue him. In other words, if
David Ortiz is about to be sold for $10, for goodness sake – BID! (D) Do not get nervous that all the good players are being
bought while you are playing the waiting game. As long as you remain “sleeping” for no more than the first third of the auction,
there will be plenty of talent still available and you’ll be able to clean up. (E) Be aggressive in the mid and late rounds of the
draft. You have the money, spend it. If you delay here then you will end up with little talent and money left over, which is a
good segue into the next point. (F) NEVER end the auction with money left over. Money left over is a waste. For example,
suppose you end the auction with $6 left over. In the middle of the auction you were bidding aggressively for Justin Verlander,
but he was sold to another team for $3 more than you were willing to spend. Had you spent the extra $6 Verlander could have
been yours! Budgeting your money is something that takes practice and experience. Just remember, if you sit out the first
third of an auction, you cannot rest on your ass thereafter and expect to draft a good team.
4. New Age Strategy
Named for its relaxing, almost whimsical method of drafting, this strategy is less restricting than the others. Its adherents do
not worry about how much to spend on hitting, or how much to spend on pitching. Likewise, they do not concentrate on
whether to bid in the early or late part of the auction. Instead, the way to draft a good team is to obtain value. Therefore, bid
on players that are going for less than what they are worth. If Jimmy Rollins is worth $40 and you can get him for $30, do it.
Conversely, if you really want Andruw Jones, but he is going for $30 when you valued him at $20, do not bid. Stay true to a
player’s pre-assigned value.
The objective is to draft a team full of “steals” so that after the draft people come up to you and say, “dude, how did we let you
get Jeter for only $4?” At some point in the auction, however, you need to stop and take stock of your team. Thus, to
effectively use this strategy, it is imperative that you evaluate a few things in the middle of the draft. First, how much money do
you have let? Second, how much money do your competitors have left to spend? Finally, who are the best players still
available? The answers to these questions will help dictate whether you can spend any surplus money you have stashed
away, or whether you should slow down your aggressive bidding and target some players that are still in the pot.
5. The “TOPS” Plan
Although the acronym is my invention, the strategy is one of the oldest in fantasy baseball. Standing for “Targeting Only
Pitching Studs,” the idea is to emphasize pitching and spend a good portion of your money (as much as $130) on top pitching
talent. Mimicking real life where pitching is the key factor to making it to the playoffs, TOPS suggests that you should target
the top fantasy baseball pitchers in the game.
Here are the rules. First, get at least two star pitchers. Examples include Johan Santana, Jake Peavy, Brandon Webb, Erik
Bedard, Josh Beckett, and C.C. Sabathia. Also get at least one (or even two) solid closers. Fill out your staff with mid-range
starting pitchers like Derek Lowe, Ted Lilly, Rich Hill, and Bronson Arroyo, and set-up men like Chad Qualls, Heath Bell,
Jonathan Broxton, and Rafael Betancourt.
The obvious and glaring defect of TOPS is the lack of money available to spend on hitting. To compensate for this deficiency,
you will need a combination of good scouting and some luck. Forget about targeting Jose Reyes or any of the hitting
powerhouses. Instead, your top hitters should be in the $20-$25 range and you can fill out your lineup by seeking players that
have upside, but are not as recognizable as the stars. A good example is Ian Kinsler. He’ll probably cost about $12 and will
help your team in homers, steals, and runs. Likewise, Adrian Beltre will cost about $14 but could put up huge power numbers
(his stats have improved each of the last three seasons). Catchers are good place to take some risks, perhaps a Geovany
Soto or J.R. Towles, both of whom have upside. Likewise, 24-year old Jeremy Hermida, long heralded as a top prospect, can
probably be obtained for about $9, but is poised to have a breakout year after a strong second half in 2007.
The ultimate objective is to have an intimidating pitching staff that will allow you score strong in every pitching category, and
simultaneously be competitive in all hitting categories through good scouting, active in-season roster management, and a
trade or two.
This wraps up Fantasy Baseball 101’s discussion of various Roto strategies you can employ in an auction league. If you have
any strategies you have used – successfully, or not so successfully – e-mail us at fantasy_baseball101@yahoo.com and
share your experiences with us. Next week we will review tips and other tactics to use while you are in the middle of your
auction.
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March 5, 2008
Auction League Strategies, Part I
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Introduction
For traditionalists, an auction is far superior to a draft. Much like Sports Illustrated’s Swimsuit Edition, it is the highlight of the
year. More complicated and intense than a draft format, an auction pits owner against owner in a battle to see who is willing to
pay more of their allocated $260 for a particular player. There are several truths about auctions: they are more fun, more time
consuming, and invoke more strategy than drafts. At its core, fantasy baseball is about valuation – how much do you value a
player compared to another team owner? The beauty of an auction is that if you really want a player you can get him; there is
no need to worry about him being drafted right before your pick. To do well, auction leagues require more preparation and
different strategies than draft formats. Because there are many different strategies to choose from, I have divided this article
into two parts. The second part will be featured next week. Without further adieu, here are some of the most popular and
basic strategies to consider:
1. Conservative Approach
The key element to this strategy (in an AL or NL-only league) is that you should never bid more than $30-$32 on a single
player. Instead of blowing your cash on one or two high-priced superstars, aim for solid and reliable players in the $16-$26
range. By concentrating on second tier players, you will end up with a balanced team full of guys like Curtis Granderson,
Bobby Abreu, Carlos Guillen, and Derek Jeter. As these examples illustrate, whenever possible seek five-category players. In
addition, if you do not overspend on any one player it is likely that you will have more money to spend on late-round bargains.
Balance is another important aspect to this strategy. Attempt to address all statistical categories – get hitters that contribute in
several categories, and be sure to purchase several solid starters, and at least one closer.
In addition to NL or AL-only formats, this strategy also works well in a mixed league that has 14 or more teams. If your mixed
league has less than 14 teams you may want to consider spending more than $32 – maybe as much as $40. This is because
in deep mixed leagues there is so much talent available in the free agency market that it really pays to have first tier players.
For instance, in an NL only league if you spend $40 on Jimmy Rollins you will have to spend significantly less on other roster
spots, and may end up with a bench player. In mixed leagues if you spend the same $40 on Rollins, you can still fill your roster
with high quality players.
While lacking the high profile mega stars that some strategies permit, the Conservative Approach ensures a well balanced
team and flexibility in the auction.
2. LIMA
LIMA, standing for Low Investment Mound Aces, is the brainchild of BaseballHQ founder Ron Shandler. Named after Jose
Lima, who cost little but had great value in 1998, the LIMA Plan says you should spend no more than $60 of your $260 on
pitching. Of the $60 used on pitching, $30 should be spent to obtain a closer.
Although $60 does not seem like a lot to spend for an entire pitching staff, remember that pitching typically costs less than
hitters. Plus, there is often a lot of value to be had in pitchers who are not as well known, but can still get solid numbers. For
instance, instead of targeting Jake Peavy or Johan Santana, go after players such as Joe Blanton, Chad Billingsley, John
Maine, Ted Lilly, Jeff Francis, Jared Weaver, and Jeremy Bonderman. In many leagues these players can be purchased for
$9-$15. You can also take risks on pitchers with upside like Phil Hughes, Clay Buccholz, Francisco Liriano, or Homer Bailey.
A chief benefit of LIMA is that you can really load up on hitters – often viewed as more reliable than pitchers. With $200 to
spend on 14 hitters, you can average $14 per hitter. The goal is to win most hitting categories, and remain competitive in
every pitching category through good scouting. It requires an in-depth knowledge of pitchers available in each league, and a
keen judge of talent to pull off. Because strikeouts are often hard to come by in the $10 range, this strategy typically works
better in a 4x4 league.
3. ZIMA
There are many variations on LIMA. For example, Jason Grey has used the ZIMA Plan which is the same as LIMA, but the $60
for pitching is allocated differently. In ZIMA, use the $30 on a stud starting pitcher and do not pay for saves at all.
Alternatively, you can target two upper-level starting pitchers for $30-$35.
4. LIPA
This is my modification of Shandler’s LIMA strategy. I have changed the “M” to a “P” which stands for Pitching, a broader
interpretation. The idea is still to spend most of your money on offense, while targeting low-risk, low-costing quality pitchers,
but it differs from LIMA in two respects.
First, instead of spending only $60 on pitching, you can spend $80. The extra $20 gives you more leeway to get decent
pitching talent (and strikeouts), while not sacrificing your high-powered offense. In addition, you have the flexibility to target
middle relievers who have a good three-year track record to help lower your ERA and WHIP, while picking up the occasional
save. With $180 left to spend on hitting, you can still end the draft with a high-powered offense.
Second, instead of spending $30 on one dominant closer, spend the $30 on two closers. For $30 you can probably get some
combination of Bobby Jenks and Matt Capps, or Chad Cordero and Jason Isringhuasen. In NL or AL only leagues you should
also target a setup man who may take over the closers job at some point in the season. Thus, LIPA gives you a backup in the
event one of your closers gets hurt or loses his job. In addition, your team will get more saves than those following LIMA. This
is crucial since you will be gaining most of your points in the hitting categories and will need every pitching category point you
can muster. If you dominate in hitting, do very well in saves, and remain competitive in the other pitching categories you will do
very well in your league. LIPA allows you to get just as much, if not more, high quality starting pitchers as LIMA, but you get
two closers for the price of one.
As with LIMA, this strategy can be used in a 5x5 league but is more effective in a 4x4 format.
5. Proportional Strategy
The proportional strategy looks at the number of hitters and pitchers on your active roster and allocates your money
accordingly. In a 23 man active roster league, that means you have 14 hitters and 9 pitchers. Hitters are ~61% of your team,
and pitchers are 39%. Thus, you should spend 61% of your $260 budget on hitting ($158) and 39% of your budget on
pitching ($102). Pretty intuitive stuff.
The main benefit of this strategy is that you end up with a balanced team of hitters and pitchers. Often, teams focus more on
offensive talent and overlook the fact that in Roto leagues pitching counts for half your total stats. This strategy ensures that
pitchers are not neglected.
This strategy seems pretty obvious, so how come not too many experts mention it? The main reason is that although it sounds
logical, the end result is a team chalk full of great pitchers, but hitters that have as much talent as American Idol’s William
Hung. Most fantasy teams value hitting more than pitching, so if you are spending $158 on hitting, but everyone else is
spending $180 or more, your hitting probably won’t be as good as other teams. Moreover, pitchers are inherently riskier than
hitters and that is accounted for in their auction price. If a good hitter goes for $30, a good pitcher will often go for $20. So, if
quality pitching costs less than quality hitting, why spend the same proportional amount on pitching?
Despite these drawbacks, some owners passionately defend the proportional strategy. Their argument goes like this. There
are few true aces in the league. If I can get my hands on them I won’t have to worry about my pitching staff. Then, I can make
up any lost value in hitting by taking a couple of well-executed risks or by trading my stud pitchers midway through the
season, In 2007 teams found there was plenty of low costing, but high value hitting talent. A brief list would include Ryan
Braun, Shane Victorino, BJ Upton, and Troy Tulowitzki. Each of these players’ value far exceeded their auction day price.
There is merit to both sides. I leave it to you to decide.
That’s it for this week. The strategies listed above are some of the more common strategies used at auctions. Next week I will
profile additional strategies to use at the auction, including some that are a little off-the-wall, but have worked for many in the
past.
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March 1, 2008
Draft Day Strategies
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There is nothing better than draft day. Waves of excitement mixed with sharp tense moments. In one sitting you experience
both the joy of getting your top secret sleeper, and the agony of the team before you stealing the top player on your queue
list. Experienced fantasy baseball fans will tell you that draft day is the single most important day of the season. Success on
draft day can lead to a league championship, while failure can result in humiliation and ridicule from the members of your
league. So, you can either wing it, or you can go into draft day fully prepared with a strategy to guide you to victory. Much like
dating, you’re more likely to score if you know what you’re doing. Therefore, in this inaugural edition of Strategy Session, we
analyze several draft-day strategies for Roto leagues that can lead you to a first place finish.
There is no such thing as the “best” strategy. It all depends on your own tendencies, knowledge, player evaluation, and luck.
If you are playing in several leagues, you may want to try a different strategy in each league and see which works best. I have
used each of these strategies with great success. Without further adieu, here are some basic draft strategies that have a
proven winning track record:
1. Balanced approach
As its name implies, under the balanced approach you try to draft a team perfectly balanced between hitting and pitching, and
capable of competing in all categories from the first day of the season. Here is how to do it:
Rounds 1-10 in a mixed league, and 1-6 in an NL or AL only league: Draft the best overall player available. If you tend to be
drafting all hitters in the first three rounds, be sure to take one or two pitchers with your next few picks and vice versa. Ideally,
the hitters will be solid 5-category studs, and the pitchers will produce big numbers in all pitching categories except saves.
Rounds 11-20 in a mixed league, and 7-18 in an NL or AL only league: Evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of your team.
Address areas of weakness in these rounds. Have you loaded up on sluggers like Lance Berkman, Jack Cust, and Aramis
Ramirez, at the expense of stolen base threats? If so, draft speed demons like Juan Pierre, Rafael Furcal, Brian Roberts,
Willie Tavares, or Jacob Ellsbury. Likewise, if you have a bunch of Faustino Carmona’s on your team it may be wise to pick up
some pitchers who can get strikeouts, such as Oliver Perez, Rich Hill, or Felix Hernandez. This is also the time period in which
to draft a closer (or two), if you have not already done so. Focus on a closer(s) that will not only get a lot of saves, but also
help – or at least not hurt -- your team in ERA, Whip, and even strikeouts.
Importantly, you should continue to target five-category players, even if they are at a lower tier than the David Wright’s of the
world. Players such as Rickie Weeks, Ian Kinsler, Carlos Guillen, Brandon Phillips, and Curtis Granderson will continue to
provide balance to your team.
Round 21-end in a mixed league, and 19-end in an NL or AL only league: Take some risks in categories that you are weakest
in, or load up on guys who can be used as trade bait. If you need speed, consider Michael Bourne, Jerry Owens, or Norris
Hopper in an NL only league, and Dave Roberts, Mike Cameron, Johnny Damon, or Kenny Lofton in a mixed league. If you
need ERA and/or Whip, consider drafting a few dominant middle relievers. If you need saves, in a mixed league draft less
desirable closers like Todd Jones, and in an AL or NL only league draft set-up men, like Jonathan Broxton, who are one injury
removed from becoming a closer.
The theory behind the balanced approach is that your team will do well in all categories and immediately compete for a league
championship. At times you may be foregoing the best available player in an effort to address a statistical team weakness. Put
simply, why load up on an extra slugger to win homers by 50 long balls, when winning it by 1 homer will give you the same
number of league points? Instead of wasting that pick on a slugger, it is better to pick up much-needed stolen bases, saves,
or whatever your team is lacking. In addition, by not neglecting your pitching staff the theory recognizes that your team can
rack up as many points in pitching categories as hitting. Note, however, that some complain that this approach can make
trading difficult as it is difficult to give up a player without upsetting the statistical balance you have achieved.
2. Balls to the Wall
No guts, no glory. That’s the theory behind this strategy. In other words, target risky players and hope for the best. Now this
doesn’t mean you should draft Randy Johnson or Jay Bruce in the first round. We’re talking about intelligent risks, combined
with good, solid player evaluation. Here’s how it works.
Early rounds: Focus on the best player available, ideally five-category studs.
Middle rounds: Begin looking for intelligent risks. These include star players coming back from injury, rookies who are likely to
have starting jobs, or players who did poorly last year but are likely to have a bounce back year. Many players fall into these
categories. A brief sample for 2008 include: Gary Sheffield, Jason Bay, Francisco Liriano, Taylor Buccholz, Nick Johnson,
Hank Blalock, Evan Longoria, Ramon Hernandez, Eric Gagne, Andruw Jones, and Randy Johnson.
Late rounds: Here’s where the more extreme risks come into play. In the late rounds you should target high potential rookies
who may not have starting jobs on opening day and players who are out for a month or two at the beginning of the season,
but could be great if they come back. The theory is you would rather have someone with a lot of upward potential over a scrub
who is guaranteed to do poorly. Keep in mind that many mixed leagues still have high quality players left in the late rounds, so
this strategy is more suited to NL or AL only leagues. Players that fall into this group for 2008 include: Kelvim Escobar, Jay
Bruce, Matt Antonelli, Homer Bailey, Ian Stewart, Joey Votto, Brandon Wood, Rich Harden, Jason Schmidt, Yovani Gollardo,
Mike Hampton, and B.J. Ryan.
This strategy typically results in a win big or lose big outcome. It can be incredibly fun taking flyers on players that others are
unwilling to take, but if your goal is to finish first place we advise steering far away from this strategy, with one caveat: if used
in very limited doses in conjunction with another draft day strategy, it can have a huge payoff.
3. Emphasize Hitters Over Pitchers
This strategy presupposes that hitters are more reliable than pitchers and therefore, should be the primary focus of your
draft. Champions of this strategy believe that pitchers are unreliable, get injured more often than batters, and many of their
stats (wins, saves) are outside their direct control. Too often they have been burned by guys like Mark Prior, Jason Schmidt,
and Kevin Brown. The main rules of this strategy are:
(a) Never draft a pitcher with your first overall pick.
(b) Focus on hitters in the early rounds of the draft. Do not focus on any pitchers until the middle rounds, where you can
obtain undervalued, but consistent performers (think Derek Lowe, John Maine, Chien-Ming Wang, and John Smoltz types).
(c) Do not worry about closers until the end of the draft or until free agency begins. Closers are the most volatile of pitchers
and about as reliable as my jump shot (trust me – it’s not good).
(d) Target players who are consistent and injury-free. This strategy places a premium on reliability, so not only should you
place less of an emphasis on pitchers, you should also steer away from hitters who have a long history of injuries (e.g. Moises
Alou, J.D. Drew, Rocco Baldelli, etc.).
4. Best player available
This strategy is well known and used by legions of fantasy baseball fans throughout the country. The idea is that no matter
what round you are in, or who you have on your team, always seek the best player available. The end result is a team with a
lot of talent. So what if you end up with a team full of sluggers and no stolen base guys. You can always trade for steals
because you will have such good players.
Now, obviously there are some exceptions to this strategy. If the best player available is an outfielder and you already have
five outfielders, but no infielders or pitchers, you may want to take the best available pitcher or infielder instead. Some die
hard devotees to this strategy contend that even in this circumstance you should take the outfielder if he is the best available,
and make a trade for an infielder/pitcher later on. That can be successful, but keep in mind that this places a lot of pressure
on you to make a trade following the draft. Other teams will know that you must make a trade to fill your active roster, and you
may not have as much bargaining power as you would like.
5. VORP & Position Scarcity
Adherents to this strategy often stand in stark contrast to those who follow the “best player available” strategy. Using a
concept known as Value Over Replacement Player (VORP), ask yourself which position has few good players, and will drafting
a top player at one of those positions give me a competitive advantage?
This strategy can best be understood by way of example. From 2000-2002 Mike Piazza was my first round draft pick each
season, even though he was not the best statistical player available. I chose Piazza because he was so much better than any
other catcher available in my NL-only league, that I felt he gave me a big advantage. I did not care if I missed out on Barry
Bonds, Sammy Sosa, or Vladimir Guerrero – there were plenty of solid outfield options available in the middle rounds. But if I
passed on Piazza, I could be left with the likes of Scott Service as my top backstop. Yikes. I’d rather have Piazza and someone
like Jim Edmonds than Guerrero and Scott Service.
In other words, this strategy eschews taking the top player available regardless of position, in favor of taking the top player
available based on position scarcity. Rotisserie baseball is a numbers game; the idea is to get better stats in a number of
categories than the other teams in your league. If you have ten outfielders who are roughly similar, and one catcher who is
clearly superior to any other backstop, it makes more sense to draft the catcher than the best of the outfielders.
Logistically, here is how you should implement this strategy. Make a list of players at each position, rank them, and break up
the rankings into four tiers of production. This will give you a quick visual as to how much talent each position has. Positions
with many players in the first and second tier are deep, and you are likely to get one of those players, even in the middle
rounds. Conversely, positions with few players in the first or second tier are more valuable because, if you get one of those
players on your team, it means the other teams in the league will have to draft a player far inferior. The net outcome is more
stats for you, less for your opponents.
Here’s a quick example: Who’s a draft pick in 2008 based solely on ’07 stats : Adam LaRoche (1B) or Brian McCann (3B)? At
first glance, it may appear LaRoche. LaRoche hit .272-21-88-1-71 compared to McCann’s .270-18-92-0-51. Although their
stats are roughly similar, with LaRoche beating McCann in every category except RBI’s, McCann is the more valuable fantasy
player. The logic should be obvious by now: there are a myriad of first basemen, and few catchers, in each position’s
respective first and second tiers. It becomes clear that there are few catchers capable of McCann’s performance, and most
will not even come close to McCann’s performance. Thus, his value over replacement options is much higher.
VORP does not mean you should always take the best player available at the weakest position. Indeed, in a Roto format it
would be foolhardy to draft Robinson Cano over Carl Crawford simply because second base is a weaker position. VORP
merely requires that you take the level of talent available at each position into account when making your draft choice. It
should also be noted that traditional weak positions, such as second base and shortstop are not as week in 2008 as in years
past. Instead, depending on your roster requirements, outfield and starting pitching may be weak this season.
6. The Almost All Relief Strategy
This strategy works best in auction leagues that do not count strikeouts as a category, but can still be applied effectively in a
draft format. Advocates of this strategy contend that relievers are more likely to get a good ERA and Whip than starting
pitchers, and are not valued as high.
Here’s how to do it. In the early rounds you should seek the top hitting talent available. Starting in the fourth or fifth round, and
continuing into the middle rounds, make sure you secure at least three solid closers. Then, fill out your staff with solid middle
relievers (think Heath Bell, Jonathan Broxton, JC Romero, and Rafael Betancourt), set-up men who are second in line to
become closer, and two to three starters who won’t hurt your ERA or WHIP. It is not necessary for your starters to win a lot of
games (e.g. Scott Kazmir, Mark Buehrle, Matt Cain, Gil Meche, Ian Snell). Years ago you could get away with a team full of
relievers, but today most leagues have innings pitched requirements which essentially force you to draft two to three starters.
Why is this strategy effective? It virtually guarantees that you will lead your league in three categories: ERA, Whip, and saves.
In a 4x4 league, that’s 31/40 points. In a 5x5 league, it is obviously not quite as advantageous, guaranteeing you only 32/50
points – but still a respectable score. If you draft relievers who also get strikeouts you may even pick up an extra point or two
in K’s. The beauty of the strategy, however, is that closers and middle relievers are not valued as high as starting pitchers.
So, while others in your league are drafting the Johan Santana and C.C. Sabathia’s of the world, you can load up on offensive
talent, and still be assured a decent pitching staff. Moreover, you will probably have a huge surplus of saves by mid season
which you can then trade in exchange for players who can address your team’s weaknesses.
This strategy can be very effective, but like any strategy there are risks involved. The biggest risk here is that middle relievers
are fickle and their stats can fluctuate wildly from year-to-year. Closers can also be unreliable, and if your closers lose their
starting job, you will not win the saves category. Throwing one category is risky. Throwing two categories is extremely risky.
Throwing three categories will lead to a middle-of-the-pack finish at best.
7. When to Draft a Closer?
Although this is not a comprehensive draft strategy, every fantasy baseball player must decide when to draft a closer. Owners
vary on their strategies. Some contend you need to get a closer early or all the good ones will be gone. Others suggest they
would rather focus on hitters and starters and worry about a closer later. Indeed, in recent years it has become fashionable to
forego a closer entirely until the late rounds of the draft.
Perhaps the most vocal advocate of the late round closer theory is ESPN’s Matthew Berry. In his Draft Day Manifesto, Berry
argues that closers are too volatile and not worth the price of an early pick. As an example, he refers to teams that wasted
early round picks on the formerly reliable B.J Ryan and Huston Street, both of whom were injured for large portions of ’07. In
addition, Berry states that there are always saves to be had on the free agent wire because if one closer gets hurt, another
reliever rises from his ashes to take his place as team closer. Contrast this with steals, in which there are only a finite number
of players who have the wheels to steal 20+ bases.
Berry raises some interesting points, but there are many who disagree with his approach. The counterargument goes like this.
Saves is a category every bit as valuable as any other category. Why neglect an entire category? Sure, Street and Ryan got
injured last year, but take a look at the consistency and longevity of Billy Wagner, Trevor Hoffman, Mariano Rivera, Joe
Nathan, and Francisco Rodriguez. One closer can anchor your pen and, in NL or AL only leagues, is worth at least three to
four points by himself. Very few players can gain your team that many points by themselves.
Both Berry and his detractors make important points. Berry’s arguments ring true in 12 team mixed league formats where
there is a plethora of closers available in the middle to end of the draft. It seems rather intuitive that drafting a stud hitter in
the early rounds, and then securing Matt Capps and Kevin Gregg at the end, is a better strategy than missing out on the
hitter so you can draft Bobby Jenks, especially since it is easy to scour the waiver wire for saves in a mixed league.
But in NL or AL-only formats there is a middle ground. In such formats saves come at a premium. You cannot expect to get
reliable closers at the end of the draft, or feel secure in hunting for them on the waiver wire. If you want saves you need to
draft them before others do. That does not mean you should draft Manuel Corpas with your first pick – common sense still
applies. Rather, here are some guidelines to follow: (1) Do not draft a closer in the first three rounds of a draft – it is too risky,
(2) Instead, try to draft a top closer in the first four or five rounds of the draft, (3) if you cannot obtain a top tier closer, wait
until the middle rounds, (4) After you have drafted your first closer, consider drafting a second one in either the middle
rounds, (5) If you find yourself with only one closer at the end of the draft, you may want to consider drafting dominate set-up
men who are second in line for their team’s closer job. In 4x4 leagues you should do this even if you already have two closers.
There are many other strategies, or sub-strategies that can be used on draft day. This article was a sampling of the most
common and most basic strategies used in fantasy baseball today. Write to us at fantasy_baseball101@yahoo.com if there is
a strategy you have used and found effective. In the next edition of Strategy Session we will focus on strategies exclusive to
auction leagues.
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