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April 13, 2008
First Week Impressions, AL edition
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The first week of the 2008 season has come to a close. It is never wise to make decisions about players and how they
will perform for the rest of the season after less than 10 games, but here are some of my reflections from the first week of
baseball.
AL EAST
Boston Red Sox
The injury to Mike Lowell has moved Kevin Youkilis to third, and Sean Casey gets the start at first. Lowell could be out
until May, so don’t drop him if you are a Lowell owner. Also, teams in need of a first baseman could find Casey serviceable
until Lowell returns. The veteran is a consistent .300 hitter, but lacks power.
The biggest disappointment in the first week of the season is probably Jacoby Ellsbury. The World Series hero leadoff
batter does not consistently start, let alone bat leadoff. He is batting just .176 and has no value while splitting time with
Coco Crisp. The Red Sox are still trying to trade Crisp, and until they do, don’t go out of your way to get Ellsbury. If you
are an Ellsbury owner, trade him, or pray for a quick trade.
Meanwhile, J.D. Drew is off to a hot start, batting .364 with two homeruns, and David Ortiz is struggling with a batting
average under .100. Daisuke Matsuzaka and Jonathan Papelbon have been pretty much the only consistent pitchers so
far, but expect Beckett, Lester, and Buchholz to turn it around soon.
New York Yankees
Chien-Min Wang has been tremendous with a 1.38 ERA, but other than him and Mike Mussina (3.09), the rest of the
rotation all have ERAs over 5. Ian Kennedy owners should be concerned, as his ERA is 13.50, and he was even benched
when he was supposed to make his second start. Mariano Rivera has been lights out in three save opportunities,
converting all of them without giving up a run.
Derek Jeter’s injury is the only concern on the offensive side of the club. He will miss a few games, but that won’t
increase the fantasy value of any of his backups. Meanwhile, Hideki Matsui, Bobby Abreu, ARod, and Melky Cabrera are
having solid starts, with each batting over .300 and at least one homerun. On the other hand, Cano, Posada, and Giambi
are struggling, each batting less than .200. Cano is a batting champ candidate, and Posada had a great year last season,
so definitely keep them. Giambi, however, with his age and his play over the past few years, is a question mark.
Toronto Blue Jays
Marco Scutaro is batting just .130 with 1 RBI while starting at third base. Do not bother with Scutaro, even with Scott
Rolen out until May. Also, if teams in your league have dropped B.J. Ryan because of his injury, pick him up as soon as
possible. With Jeremy Accardo struggling with an ERA over 10, and Ryan coming back relatively soon, B.J. will become the
closer again.
Vernon Wells is having a great start, with 3 homers and 9 RBIs, while batting .300. Wells seems to be much better
than his slumping play in 2007. Alex Rios has yet to homer, but is batting .321, and Aaron Hill is batting .414. All three of
these players have great fantasy value; look for them to keep it up for the rest of the season. On the other hand, there is
not much to get excited about with any of the other position players – except maybe David Eckstein. He is powerless, but
does have five runs and six RBIs in seven games, so he could be a producer.
Baltimore Orioles
Aubrey Huff has definitely increased his value with 11 RBIs after a week, while batting .333 with two homers. Luke
Scott has been impressive, batting .500, and Brian Roberts has been productive with his ability to put up runs, RBIs, a .320
batting average, stolen bases, and occasional power. Nick Markakis really has not done much, but he still has some value.
Melvin Mora is also playing solid and could be a serviceable backup on your fantasy team.
The Orioles pitching staff is a big question mark, however. None of the players have much value, and until they can
show that they can be consistent for several consecutive starts, don’t bother with them. One O’s pitcher who has
impressed is George Sherrill, who has four saves in the first week, with an ERA of 0.
Tampa Bay Rays
Although Matt Garza and Scott Kazmir will likely return from the DL in May, Edwin Jackson has been phenomenal in
two starts. The 15-game loser from 2007 seems like a much improved option, and if he stays with Garza and Kazmir back,
he might have some sleeper value. In the bullpen, Troy Percival seems like the undisputed closer, as he has a 0 ERA while
Al Reyes is 0-1 with a 13.50 ERA.
The bats have been pretty quiet for the Rays, as their best hitter has been Eric Hinske, the only player to have a
batting average over .250. (Hinske is batting .333) With Cliff Floyd out until late May and Johnny Gomes to take over at
DH during that span, Hinske will likely start in right field and could be a serviceable bench player for your team, at least until
Floyd returns. Expect other stars like Carl Crawford and B.J. Upton to pull their averages back up to around .300. Carlos
Pena is batting just .200 and will likely stay at around .200, but his power (3 homers so far) gives him value.
Detroit Tigers
The Tigers’ slow start and lack of offense is baffling. Expect the team to turn it around, so don’t worry too much if you
have any of the Tigers’ core players, especially Miguel Cabrera and Placido Polanco, who have been struggling to bat .
200. Ironically, it is the Tigers’ non-core players who had been producing, especially Brandon Inge and Clete Thomas.
Although Thomas will have no value when Curtis Granderson returns, Inge might be a good pickup as a utilityman for your
team. His value will definitely rise if he gets traded and becomes an everyday player. Inge seems like the 2006 Inge and
not the 2007 Inge.
The Tigers’ pitching staff has been sorry as well. Don’t bother with any relievers unless you really need a closer, in
which case Todd Jones is worth picking up. The starters are question marks, especially Nate Robertson and Kenny
Rogers. Bonderman’s second start was much better, and Justin Verlander still has Cy Young potential, so the two still have
high value. Dontrelle Willis was baffling in his first start, flirting with a no-hitter but walking seven to end up with a loss.
Cleveland Indians
Grady Sizemore is looking good, with his contributions of average, runs, power, and speed, but do not bother with the
other outfielders in David Dellucci and Franklin Gutierrez. The infielders are all off to pretty good starts, but they are
probably not available in your leagues, so if you own them already, you should be satisfied with the likes of Ryan Garko,
Jhonny Peralta, Travis Hafner, and Victor Martinez. Asdrubal Cabrera seems to have not much fantasy value, as he has no
power, and his average is hovering just over .200, so he is the only concern in the Indians infield.
Cy Young winner C.C. Sabathia is struggling, but expect him to turn it around. Although he might not play like he did
in 2007, he will still be a quality No. 1 starting pitcher, so don’t trade him because of a few bad starts. Meanwhile, Fausto
Carmona has been awesome in his first two starts, with an ERA under 1, which got him a long term deal and makes him a
potential No. 1 starter for any team. Although you should not be too worried about Sabathia’s slow start, do be concerned
about closer Joe Borowski. He is 0-1 with an ERA just under 20, so if he continues to struggle, the Indians have backup
plans to turn to, such as Rafael Perez and Masa Kobayashi.
Chicago White Sox
Joe Crede has turned out to be a major steal. While it looked as if Josh Fields would be the team’s starting third
baseman in spring training, Fields was sent to the minors and Crede was given the start, much to the dismay of Fields
owners and the delight of Crede owners. Crede is batting over .400 with three homers and 11 RBIs through the first week.
Jermaine Dye and A.J. Pierzyski are also off to fast starts. The rest of the offense, besides powerful Nick Swisher and Jim
Thome, are major question marks, and that includes Paul Konerko and Orlando Cabrera. Keep an eye on Carlos Quentin.
He seems like a sleeper pickup, and he will really have value if he gets to play everyday.
The pitching staff is struggling. Top pitchers Javier Vazquez and Mark Buehrle have ERAs over 5, and the starter with
the lowest ERA is Gavin Floyd at 4.50. On the bright side, Bobby Jenks has been lights out, converting all four save
opportunities without giving up a run. Jenks is a certain keeper, and Vazquez and Buehrle’s slow starts can be overlooked,
but don’t bother with Floyd, Jose Contreras, and John Danks yet.
Minnesota Twins
With Johan Santana and Matt Garza gone, and Francisco Liriano still recovering, the pitching rotation is composed of
an inconsistent starter in Livan Hernandez and unproven young pitchers in Boof Bonser, Kevin Slowey, Scott Baker, and
Nick Blackburn. The entire rotation should be available in your league, so keep an eye on all these guys for a few more
starts before making a run at them.
There are no real big starts or big slumps in the first week for the batters that makes us want to keep an eye on them.
Joe Mauer is bringing his good average but lack of power, and Justin Morneau is displaying his power but his average is
suffering. Both are superstars, however, and should be kept on your fantasy teams. Meanwhile, keep an eye on Carlos
Gomez. He has fantastic speed and can hit for average, but he does lack power.
Kansas City Royals
Zach Greinke is showing that he can be a dominant pitcher. He is picking up right where he left off, as he had an ERA
around 2.50 in the second half of 2007. He had two dominant starts, with an ERA under 1, against offensive powers in New
York and Detroit. Brian Bannister also showed his dominance, with an ERA of 1.50 after two starts. These two are
definitely good No. 2 or 3 pitchers on your fantasy team.
The offense has been pretty mediocre. Mark Grudzielanek has been hitting the ball very well, but he has a serious
lack of power. Alex Gordon’s second season is starting out much better, with two homers and an average around .300
through the first week. Mark Teahen is also having a good start, batting .333 with a homer. Gordon is probably taken, but
if Teahen is available, take a shot at him.
LA Angels
Kelvim Escobar could miss the season, so drop him if you still have him. If you have John Lackey, that is a different
story. Lackey should be back in May, so it makes sense to hang onto him, although it will be interesting to see how he can
perform after a triceps injury. K-Rod owners should be concerned, even if he will only miss a series or two with his injury.
His ERA is an 8, even with three saves. Especially with his future uncertain, K-Rod is a risk.
Torii Hunter is looking very good in his new team, having four homers in the first week. The rest of the Angels offense
is average, although you have to still like Chone Figgins’ near-.400 average and great speed. Howie Kendrick is also
batting around .400, but he lacks Figgins’ speed and has no power, as well as being an injury risk. Available in your league
might be Erick Aybar, but don’t pick him up, especially with Maicer Izturis around.
Oakland Athletics
Rich Harden is hurt again. He is expected to be back later this month, but he is a huge injury risk. He is dominant
when healthy, so if Harden is available, he is a solid risky pickup. Ace Joe Blanton is also a quality pitcher, and if he ends
up getting traded to a team that can give him more run support, his value will definitely rise. The rest of the pitching staff is
pretty inexperienced, so wait for a few more starts before making a move, although Dana Eveland looks like a sleeper
pickup already.
The offense is a mediocre bunch. Ryan Sweeney and Kurt Suzuki are the only players with batting averages over .
300, but both lack power to become quality fantasy players. I would not go out of my way to try to pick up any of the A’s
offensive players until they, like the back of the pitching rotation, can prove their value (doesn’t look like it right now). If you
already picked up a Travis Buck or Daric Barton hoping they can be sleepers, I would drop them and go with other options
for now, since it is doubtful any other team will go after them.
Texas Rangers
David Murphy has been a pleasant surprise, batting .344 with a homer, and if he can continue to take more playing
time away from Marlon Byrd and Frank Catalanatto and be an everyday player, he will be a great sleeper pickup. Ben
Broussard is also displaying good power, with three homers in the first week and a decent .288 batting average. The rest
of the offense is batting around .250 with not much power, but Michael Young should find the .300 mark soon, and powerful
Josh Hamilton, Hank Blalock, and Ian Kinsler should start hitting some homers.
With the exception of Jason Jennings, the rotation has been a unexpected but pleasant bunch. Kevin Millwood, who
usually has ERAs of 5 for an entire season, has an ERA under 1.50 through two starts. Kason Gabbard might also be a
sleeper pick, with an ERA of 2.13 through his first two starts. Don’t be sold on Vicente Padilla’s strong start just yet. As far
as the bullpen goes, C.J. Wilson is looking like a decent reliever, with three saves and an ERA of 0.
Seattle Mariners
Jose Lopez was available in my league for some reason, so I pounced on him, and it has worked out so far. A .300+
batting average, two homers, and 9 RBIs, as well as two stolen bases, is a great start. Lopez is a great sleeper for those of
you looking for second basemen. There has been a lot of hype about Richie Sexson and how he would be a comeback
player of the year candidate. Well, so far, Sexson still looks like the .200 batter that he was last year. I would take
outfielder Raul Ibanez over Sexson – higher average, and as of now, more homeruns. I always think Ichiro is overrated due
to his lack of homers and RBIs, and it is true so far this season, as Ichiro is batting just .286.
Veterans Carlos Silva, Jarrod Washburn, and Miguel Batista have had mixed results in their first starts, but they are
proven to be dependable No. 4 or 5 starters on your team, so give them a chance. Eric Bedard has been good, but is not
living up to the hype that was created this winter when the Orioles looked to deal him. He is a No. 2 starter on fantasy
teams and is no Johan Santana, Dan Haren, or Jake Peavy. Felix Hernandez, however, has been absolutely ridiculous,
with an ERA of 0 in 15 innings. He might just develop to be a No. 1 starter, to the delight of Hernandez owners. Also, don’t
jump on the Mark Lowe bandwagon, as he has not performed that well with a 5.40 ERA, and J.J. Putz should be back from
the DL later this month.
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March 31, 2008
5 To Watch, NL Edition
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Last week, you saw five players to watch for each organization in the AL. This week, I present five players to watch for each
team in the NL. Hopefully, this will help any of your last minute draft questions such as “Who will be a star?”, “Which players
should I be concerned about drafting?” and “Who should I avoid drafting at all?”
NL EAST
Atlanta Braves
Superstar – Mark Teixeira, 1B. He played much better after being traded to Atlanta midway through the 2007 season - .
317, 17 homers, and 56 RBI – with the Braves. Expect similar numbers from Teixeira – this time for the entire 2008
campaign.
Sleeper – Yunel Escobar, SS. Escobar batted .326 with 5 homers and 28 RBI in his rookie season. Now that Edgar Renteria
is gone, Escobar, who is having a phenomenal spring, will start for the entire year – making him a definite sleeper pick.
Concern – Chuck James, SP. His role with the Braves is in question as he recovers from a rotator cuff injury. If young Jair
Jurrjens thrives, there might be no room for James in the rotation when he is healthy, so keep a close eye on James before
acquiring him.
Avoid – Mike Hampton, SP. There are no guarantees that Hampton will stay healthy for any extended period of time. He is
the ultimate injury risk, and even when healthy, Hampton probably has lost most of his stuff.
Prospect Watch – Jair Jurrjens, SP. Jurrjens impressed in a few appearances for Detroit last year before being traded for
Edgar Renteria. Jurrjens has looked good all spring, so as long as he can stay consistent, he should have a solid spot in
the rotation.
New York Mets
Superstar – Johan Santana, SP. Santana is settled in a new team and has a huge contract extension done. All he has to do
now is pitch, and he is one of the best at that.
Sleeper – Pedro Martinez, SP. When healthy, Martinez is as dominant as Santana. But Martinez has had injury issues over
the past years and he will be 37 years old this season. But he is healthy now and looked good in his first spring training
start.
Concern – Moises Alou, OF. He is out with hernia until May and will turn 42 in July. He did bat .341 with 13 homers in 328 at-
bats in 2007, so don’t completely neglect him.
Avoid – Endy Chavez, OF. He is a quality fourth outfielder backing up an 80-year old injured Moises Alou, but still avoid
him. He can hit for a decent average, but lacks power (1 HR in 150 AB in 2007) and is not as speedy as one thinks.
Prospect Watch – Mike Pelfrey, SP. Pelfrey had a horrible 2007 season with an ERA above 5.50 in 13 starts. Do expect the
young 24 year old to improve IF he can beat out Orlando Hernandez for the fifth starting spot.
Philadelphia Phillies
Superstar – Ryan Howard, 1B. Howard hit 47 home runs and had 136 RBIs a season ago, but batted only .268. The
average may be an anomaly, as he had batted .313 in 2006 and is batting .378 in spring training this year. Howard could
go for 50 homers and 150 RBIs and bat .300 this season. Don’t miss out on Howard, whose only weakness is his high
strikeout totals.
Sleeper – Kyle Kendrick, SP. In 2007, Kendrick started out at AA and ended up with a 10-4 record and 3.87 ERA in the
majors. Expect a breakout sophomore season for this young sleeper.
Concern – Geoff Jenkins, OF. The new Phillies right fielder can still hit for good power, but his batting average won’t be
much higher than .270 at best. The real concern is whether Jenkins will start full-time or platoon with Jayson Werth.
Avoid – Adam Eaton, SP. Eaton had a 6.29 ERA in 30 starts a year ago. He just is not good enough for your fantasy team,
even if he wins a spot in the rotation.
Prospect Watch – Carlos Carrasco, P. Carrasco, who thrived in AA last season, has a good shot at making the big leagues
sometime this season. The question is whether he will be a starter or a reliever in the majors.
Florida Marlins
Superstar – Hanley Ramirez, SS. Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis are both gone, but Hanley is still around, and he can
hit .330, 30 homers, 100 RBIs, score 125 runs, and steal 50 bases. Ramirez could be a fantasy owner’s dream.
Sleeper – Andrew Miller, SP. Although he is part of the Marlins’ dismal and injured pitching staff, the sky is still the limit for
Miller. In fact, the 2006 first-rounder has a shot at becoming the team’s ace, and to fill Dontrelle Willis’ shoes.
Concern – Marlins pitching staff. All five projected starters, Scott Olsen, Mark Hendrickson, Andrew Miller, Ricky Nolasco,
and Rick VandenHurk, had ERAs above 5 last season. Josh Johnson and Anibal Sanchez are worthy of being drafted if
healthy, but Sanchez will not return until June and Johnson until late July; Miller is the only sleeper worth a shot.
Avoid – Luis Gonzalez, OF. The World Series hero from his Diamondbacks days is 40 years old and will likely back up Josh
Willingham in left field. He has no fantasy value anymore.
Prospect Watch – Cameron Maybin, OF. He has all the tools to become the next right handed hitting Ken Griffey Jr. It will be
a matter of time before he makes an impact in the majors, as he will open the season at AA. He is the Marlins center fielder
of the future, however.
Washington Nationals
Superstar – Ryan Zimmerman, 3B. Zimmerman is basically like David Wright of the New York Mets except that his batting
average is lower and that he is much slower around the bases. Still, Zimmerman has the potential to have a .280, 25
homer, 100 RBI season.
Sleeper – Lastings Milledge, OF. Milledge will start at center field for the Nationals. He improved a lot from his 2006 season
to his 2007 season, and if he improves as much again in 2008, you could be looking at a .300, 20 homer, 80 RBI, 80 runs
kind of guy.
Concern – Dmitri Young, 1B. If Young wins the starting job, he is worth having, especially after his comeback, breakout
season last year. But if Nick Johnson wins the starting job at first, you better hope Young starts in left field or is traded to a
team where he can start.
Avoid – Johnny Estrada, C. Estrada will likely back up Paul LoDuca at catcher. Estrada was mediocre as a starter the past
few years, so he now has no fantasy value.
Prospect Watch – Ross Detwiler, SP. The 2007 draft pick actually saw action in the big leagues last year. Although he
probably will start in the minors, that tells you something about how soon the Nationals would like Detwiler to help out their
sorry pitching.
NL CENTRAL
St. Louis Cardinals
Superstar – Albert Pujols, 1B. The best hitter not named Alex Rodriguez the past half decade.
Sleeper – Adam Wainwright, SP. The young righty showed he can be the Cardinals ace by going 14-12 with a 3.70 ERA.
He can eat up innings and strike out quite a few.
Concern – Albert Pujols, 1B. His elbow is frustrating all of us, and it is really difficult to determine what kind of effect it will
have on him.
Avoid – Skip Schumaker, OF. There is no guarantee that Schumaker will keep the starting outfield position, provided that
he does win a starting job. Schumaker hits for a nice average (.333 in 2007), but he has zero power and not enough speed.
Prospect Watch – Chris Perez, RP. Perez will open the year in AAA, but he is the Cardinals closer of the future when Jason
Isringhausen moves on.
Chicago Cubs
Superstar – Alfonso Soriano, OF. Soriano can still hit for average and power, although his base stealing totals have fallen
considerably last year. We can hope for a .300, 30 home run, 100 RBI, 100 run, 30 steals out of Soriano.
Sleeper – Kosuke Fukudome, OF. Everyone knows Fukudome can hit and hit for decent power. The question is how long it
will take for him to get used to major league pitching.
Concern – Kerry Wood, P. When is the DL-loving Wood not a concern?
Avoid – Matt Murton, OF. Murton is batting close to .350 this spring, but the addition of Fukudome will hurt his playing time
significantly. Murton will be a nice fourth outfielder for the Cubs, but that doesn’t matter in fantasy baseball.
Prospect Watch – Sean Gallagher, RHP. He reached the majors last season, but will probably start this season in the
minors. But he will more than likely see the majors again, and if he does, especially as a starter, he could be a sleeper.
Milwaukee Brewers
Superstar – Ryan Braun, OF. His defensive woes don’t matter in fantasy, and his position change should not affect
anything either. The important thing is that Braun has potential to hit .320 while slugging 40 homers and driving in 120.
Sleeper – Yovani Gallardo, SP. Yes, he will miss about a month in the beginning of the season, but you cannot ignore a
rising star who went 9-5 with a 3.67 ERA as a rookie.
Concern – J.J. Hardy, SS. Which J.J. will we see? The slugger who hit 18 homers and drove in 54 runs in the first half last
season or the soft hitter who hit 8 homers and drove in 26 in the second half? Hardy is definitely worthy of being drafted,
but the questions is where in the draft?
Avoid – Mike Cameron, OF. He is suspended for the first 25 games of 2008, and if Tony Gwynn Jr. plays well, Cameron will
face limited playing time. The 35 year old can still hit homers, but he will struggle to hit .250 and strike out way too often.
Prospect Watch – Manny Parra, SP. Could be this year’s version of Gallardo.
Houston Astros
Superstar – Roy Oswalt, SP. The undisputed ace of the Astros returns again as the only capable pitcher in an otherwise
sorry Astros pitching staff. Oswalt had a 3.18 ERA while going 14-7 last season.
Sleeper – Hunter Pence, OF. Hype for young Pence died down with the emergence of Ryan Braun and Pence’s injury.
Pence’s spring shows that Pence will try to steal the spotlight from Braun, as he also has .320-40 homer-120 RBI potential.
Concern – Brandon Backe, SP. Backe hardly played the past two seasons with Tommy John surgery. If the surgery doesn’t
slow him down, Backe is a relatively consistent pitcher. But most pitchers do have hard times returning to form after Tommy
John.
Avoid – Mark Loretta, IF. Loretta had a pretty nice 2007, and his reward was the Astros picking up Miguel Tejada and Kaz
Matsui. Expect Loretta to be a backup this season.
Prospect Watch – Max Sapp, C. Houston already has a young prospect who will start in the majors this season in J.R.
Towles, but Sapp is not supposed to reach the majors this season anyways.
Cincinnati Reds
Superstar – Adam Dunn, LF. His average and strikeout totals are worrisome, but we like his 40 homers, 106 RBIs, and 101
runs from last year. He’ll likely repeat those numbers this year.
Sleeper – Edwin Encarnacion, 3B. He gets streaky at times, but a demotion to AAA may have done him good last season.
He played very well after returning to the majors last year, batting over .300 and hitting 15 homers in just over 100 games.
Concern – Joey Votto, 1B. The touted prospect has been unimpressive in the spring, and the Reds might go back to Scott
Hatteberg as starting first baseman until Votto is ready to be an everyday starter.
Avoid – Josh Fogg, SP. Fogg might have to get out of the way because of up and coming prospects such as Homer Bailey,
Johnny Cueto, and Edinson Volquez. Even if Fogg holds onto a rotation spot, he does not strike out very many and will
pitch for a high ERA.
Prospect Watch – Jay Bruce, OF. Bruce was recently sent back to the minors, but the best prospect in baseball will most
likely get a call-up sooner or later.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Superstar – Ian Snell, SP. The Pirates really have no superstars at all on their roster. Snell has superstar potential,
however, as the Bucs ace had a 3.76 ERA while pitching for over 200 innings and striking out 177.
Sleeper – Matt Capps, RP. Capps played well since moving into the closer’s role in the middle of the 2007 season. Capps,
who had a 2.28 ERA while saving 18 out of 20, will be an excellent sleeper now that he will be closer from day one.
Concern – Jason Bay, LF. Bay struggled in all of 2007, failing to hit .250 and fell way short of his power expectations, hitting
just 21 homers after hitting more than 30 in the previous two seasons. Will Bay return to his old form, especially if he gets
traded?
Avoid – Zach Duke, SP. He was awesome in his rookie season in 2005, when he went 8-2 with a 1.81 ERA. Since then, he
has disappeared. Until he can prove that he can return to 2005 form, don’t bother drafting or acquiring Duke.
Prospect Watch – Andrew McCutcheon, OF. His stock has fallen recently, but he is still an intriguing prospect who has
decent power and excellent speed. If Jason Bay is traded or if Nate McLouth struggle, doors will open for McCutcheon this
season.
NL WEST
Los Angeles Dodgers
Superstar – Russell Martin, C. He is clearly one of the top three offensive catchers in baseball. He will play a lot of games,
and he will give you plenty of hits, homers, RBIs, runs, AND stolen bases, which is rare for a catcher.
Sleeper – Chad Billingsley, SP. Billingsley quietly went 12-5 with a 3.31 ERA last season, his second in the big leagues.
Billingsley could put up ace-like numbers this season.
Concern – Matt Kemp, OF. Kemp is having a monster spring and was impressive in the 2007 season, but the young right
fielder is expected to platoon at the position with Andre Ethier. When Kemp becomes a full-time starter, in a matter of time,
he is a must-get.
Avoid – Nomar Garciaparra, 3B. It is unlikely that the injury-prone, aging Nomar can ever produce offensively like he did
with the Red Sox. In fact, he will probably lose his starting job to prospect Andy LaRoche when he returns from injury. And if
LaRoche doesn’t pan out, there is also young Tony Abreu.
Prospect Watch – Clayton Kershaw, SP. The southpaw is having a brilliant spring, but he will likely not find a spot in the
Dodgers crowded rotation.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Superstar – Brandon Webb, SP. The 2006 NL Cy Young winner also had a great season in 2007, having an ERA of 3.01
while going 18-10. He is definitely one of the most consistent superstar pitchers today.
Sleeper – Chris Young, OF. Young became the first rookie to hit 30 homers and steal 25 bases (Source: CBS Sportsline),
demonstrating his power and speed. His sub-.250 average and high strikeout total are concerns, but they should improve
in Young’s second season. Consider him a great sleeper.
Concern – Randy Johnson, SP. Can the Big Unit still pitch like the Big Unit or is it time for him to retire soon?
Avoid – Chad Tracy, 1B/3B. With youngsters Conor Jackson and Mark Reynolds securing positions at first and third,
respectively, the veteran Tracy will likely be relegated to a reserve role.
Prospect Watch – Justin Upton, OF. B.J.’s brother will hope to match B.J.’s 2007 numbers as Justin will likely get his chance
this year as the Diamondbacks starting right fielder.
Colorado Rockies
Superstar – Matt Holliday, OF. One of the most productive hitters in the league. If he can improve his power a bit more, he
could be a Triple Crown candidate, let alone MVP.
Sleeper – Brad Hawpe, OF. Hawpe was overshadowed by MVP candidate Matt Holliday, but Hawpe was very productive at
the plate as well, batting .291 with 29 homers. This will be just Hawpe’s third season as a starter, so if he improves, it would
not be farfetched to say that Hawpe could put up Holliday-esque numbers.
Concern – Todd Helton, 1B. Helton can still bat .320, but he has shown his age because his power has declined. Helton hit
just 20, 15, 17 homers in the past three season after hitting over 30 in the previous six.
Avoid – Scott Podsednik, OF. With Holliday, Hawpe, and Willy Taveras patrolling the NL champs’ outfield, there is no room
for the oft-injured and declining Podsednik. He is still a steals threat, but he still has no value as a backup.
Prospect Watch – Ian Stewart, 3B. Stewart is a great hitter, but as long as Garrett Atkins is at third base, Stewart will be
stuck in the minors or as a reserve. Keep an eye on him if he gets a call-up.
San Diego Padres
Superstar – Jake Peavy, SP. The NL Cy Young winner will go for 20 wins, 250 strikeouts, and an ERA under 2.50 in 2008.
All are very doable for this ace.
Sleeper – Kevin Kouzmanoff, 3B. Other than his terrible April and May start last year, Kouzmanoff was very solid, ending up
with a .275 average and 18 homers. Expect improvement in his second year as a starter.
Concern – Jim Edmonds, OF. Edmonds is 37 and injured, although he is expected to return in April. He does not have a lot
of power as he used to, so we are unsure how valuable Edmonds will be, even if he starts at center field.
Avoid – Mark Prior, SP. He is too much of an injury risk. Enough said.
Prospect Watch – Matt Antonelli, 2B. Although the job is Tadahito Iguchi’s for now, the young Antonelli seems to be the
Padres’ second baseman of the future.
San Francisco Giants
Superstar – Aaron Rowand, OF. Rowand can bat a solid .300 while hitting 30 homers, driving in 100, and scoring 100 runs.
He is just about the only Giants’ capable hitter.
Sleeper – Matt Cain, SP. Don’t be fooled by his 16 losses. Cain had a nice 3.65 ERA, and if he pitches enough innings, can
record 200 strikeouts. However, Cain will still get a lot of losses since the Giants will not give him any run support.
Concern – Dave Roberts, OF. Roberts is 35, but he can still steal 30 bases. The concern is his significant lack of power
and a mediocre-to-low batting average.
Avoid – Barry Bonds, OF. Just in case you were getting any ideas. Actually, Bonds is not even a Giant right now, and has
no team.
Prospect Watch – Madison Bumgarner, SP. The 10th pick of the 2007 draft has the stuff to become an ace. He is just
several years away from that spot right now.
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March 21, 2008
5 To Watch, AL Edition
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As spring training nears its end and the beginning of the 2008 MLB season (as well as the new Fantasy season, for that
matter) looms closer, here are the must-grab superstars, the sleepers, the ones to be concerned about, the ones to avoid
for sure, and future prospects on the rise for each of the 14 AL teams. The NL analysis will come next week.
AL EAST
Boston Red Sox
Superstar – Josh Beckett, SP. Do not be concerned about his back spasms. He has already began throwing without any
problems, and although he likely miss his first couple starts of the season, he will be back healthy. Don't miss out on him.
Sleeper - J.D. Drew OF. After a horrendous 2007, Drew is looking like a nice sleeper pick. He is batting .360 with 5 RBIs in
the spring, and looks like he could rebound this year as a .300 hitter with 30 homer potential.
Concern – Clay Buchholz SP. He is having a rough spring, with a 1-2 record and an ERA close to 10. The sky is still the
limit for Buchholz, but only draft him if he can win the Number 5 spot in the rotation over former Cy Young winner Bartolo
Colon.
Avoid – Jed Lowrie SS. He is struggling to hit .100 in spring training, so Lowrie, who was touted as the next Dustin Pedroia,
will likely start out in AAA, especially since the backup shortstop, Alex Cora, is enjoying a fine spring training with an
average near .400.
Prospect Watch – Justin Masterson P. He made a good impression in spring training, although it will be a couple years
before he cracks the Red Sox rotation. He might make a 2008 debut in the bullpen if injuries occur, however.
New York Yankees
Superstar – Alex Rodriguez, 3B. A .450+ average and a slugging percentage of over 1.00 is a nice indicator of how A-Rod
will do in his first year after his new record contract.
Sleeper - Robinson Cano, 2B. He regressed last year from his .342 year in 2006, but that was due to a slow start. He is
batting nearly .450 this spring, and with a new contract, he will break out and rise to superstar status, with a potential
batting title in his sight.
Concern – Andy Pettite, SP. He can still win games, and he can still strike out batters. However, Pettite is now old, and he
has had injury problems the past few years, and his elbow is hurting again, which is very concerning.
Avoid – Morgan Ensberg, 3B. Despite his strong spring training performances and his breakout 36-homer 2005 season, he
will be a backup at best for New York. Avoid him.
Prospect Watch – Ian Kennedy, SP. He is still battling for a starting rotation spot, but even if Kennedy opens up in AAA, he
will start in New York sometime during the season. He has been successful in the minors, in his call-up last season, and in
spring training, so we can only expect great things from Kennedy in the majors. Keep an eye on him.
Toronto Blue Jays
Superstar – Roy Halladay, SP Halladay has been one of the most consistent aces in the past 6 seasons, with ERA under
3.30 in four of those seasons. He is healthy, enjoying a fine spring, and is just 30, so there is no reason why he should not
continue that trend.
Sleeper – Shaun Marcum, SP. Despite the awful September, Marcum was a pleasant surprise in 2007, going 12-6 with a
4.13 ERA in his second season as a starter. Marcum has the potential to improve in 2008, and he could be a real steal in
the later rounds.
Concern – Jeremy Accardo, RP. The closer who filled in very nicely for B.J. Ryan in 2007 is a big concern in 2008 for two
reasons: B.J. Ryan is back and looking good, and Accardo is struggling this spring. Ryan will likely take over the closer
position, diminishing Accardo’s value heavily.
Avoid – Shannon Stewart, OF. Stewart played decently in 2007, batting .290 and scoring 79 runs, but now in Toronto, it
does not appear that Stewart will even start. Avoid drafting him.
Prospect Watch – Travis Snider, OF. The 20-year old outfielder made headlines in A-ball a season ago, and is without a
doubt one of the top outfielder prospects today. The majors this season is not likely, but keep an eye on the young stud
outfielder.
Tampa Bay Rays
Superstar – Carl Crawford, OF. The star outfielder is nearly a complete package, and has the potential to hit .310 with 100
runs, 80 RBIs, and 50 steals. He only hit 11 home runs last season, but his contact hitting and speed make him a sure pick
in the first two rounds.
Sleeper – Evan Longoria, 3B. With Akinori Iwamura switched over to second base, Longoria, who is having a nice spring, is
likely to be the starting third baseman. Longoria was close to a .300-30-100-100 season in the minors last year, showing
that Longoria could be a solid power and contact hitter in the majors. A real sleeper.
Concern – Al Reyes, RP. He converted 26 of 30 save opportunities last season and but will likely lose his job to Troy
Percival. Reyes will still be a nice setup man for the Rays, but in Fantasy, unless you are a closer, a relief pitcher has
minimal value.
Avoid – Rocco Baldelli, OF. Baldelli is on the DL yet again at least until May, and even if he returns, his health will remain
an issue. He has only played in 127 games in the past three seasons (Source: CBS Sportsline). Furthermore, even if he is
back healthy, he will back up B.J. Upton at center field.
Prospect Watch – David Price, SP. The lefty was the No. 1 pick in the 2007 MLB Draft. Besides James Shields and Matt
Garza, the Rays’ rotation is shaky, so Price may get a call-up sooner than expected. He has a fantastic arm, so keep an
eye on him.
Baltimore Orioles
Superstar – Brian Roberts, 2B. The All-Star second baseman can hit consistently (.290 in 2007), score a lot (103 runs),
and steal (50 bases). Trade rumors are actually a good thing, because the Orioles’ sorry offense could actually be limiting
Roberts’ run total.
Sleeper – Nick Markakis, OF. Not many know his name, but Markakis had a very productive 2007, leading the team in home
runs and RBIs (23 and 112) while scoring 97 runs and batting .300, not to mention 18 stolen bases. The young outfielder is
very consistent and should put up solid numbers again this year in all statistical categories.
Concern – Orioles pitching staff. With Bedard gone, the pitching staff is a bunch of unproven (Jeremy Guthrie), injured
(Adam Loewen), and highly inconsistent (Daniel Cabrera and Steve Trachsel) players. Guthrie and Loewen may be worth a
look, but you still have to be concerned about the rotation in general.
Avoid – Luis Hernandez, SS. Miguel Tejada’s replacement is more known for his glove, which is irrelevant in fantasy.
Although he could hit for a mediocre average, avoid him.
Prospect Watch – Matt Wieters, C. Wieters has one of the best power among the prospects and was just an all-around
solid hitter in college. He was drafted just last season, so the majors are a reach, but Wieters is the Orioles’ catcher of the
future.
AL CENTRAL
Detroit Tigers
Superstar – Miguel Cabrera, 3B. A triple crown threat. Enough said.
Sleeper – Ivan Rodriguez, C. The veteran catcher took a step back in 2007, but his spring numbers are hard to ignore - .
345 with a spring training leading six homers.
Concern – Jeremy Bonderman, SP. Forgotten is his 9-1 start in 2007, and all we remember was how he struggled with an
ERA over 7 in the second half of the season, despite injuries. He is having a spring to forget, so his consistency is also an
issue.
Avoid – Todd Jones, RP. Jones gives Tigers fans heart attacks whenever he comes out to close in the ninth. He is having a
horrible spring, and could lose his job when Joel Zumaya returns from injury. Find a better, more consistent option at closer.
Prospect Watch – Rick Porcello, SP. Porcello was phenomenal in spring appearances, and he is one of the best young
pitching prospects today. Porcello will likely stay in the minors for the whole year, but the same was said about Andrew
Miller last season. Definitely track Porcello’s progress.
Cleveland Indians
Superstar – Grady Sizemore, OF. Sizemore is like Curtis Granderson – a complete package with solid hitting, power, and
speed. If he improves his batting average and cuts down on the strikeouts like Granderson did last year, he will definitely be
a superstar.
Sleeper – Fausto Carmona, SP. Carmona was overshadowed by Cy Young winning C.C. Sabathia in 2007 but had an
incredible season of his own, going 19-8 with an ERA just over 3. Carmona is having a rough spring, but he will be a
household name this season.
Concern – Asdrubal Cabrera, 2B. Expectations are high for Cabrera, who filled in nicely for a struggling Josh Barfield at the
end of last season. Cabrera will be the starter, but his lack of power is a big concern in Fantasy.
Avoid – Paul Byrd, SP. Byrd’s 15 wins don’t reflect his high ERA (4.59) and low strikeout total (88). He also could be
suspended for drugs, and he is on a short leash with young pitchers Jeremy Sowers and Aaron Laffey on the outside
looking in.
Prospect Watch – Aaron Laffey, SP. Laffey is the best pitching prospect the Indians have, but due to an awful spring and
comeback bids by Cliff Lee and Jeremy Sowers, Laffey might not win a rotation spot to start the season. He will get his
chance sooner or later, however.
Minnesota Twins
Superstar – Justin Morneau, 1B. Although his average fell from .321 to .271 from 2006 to 2007, he battled injuries and
fatigue all year. He still hit for 31 homers and had 111 RBIs, and his all-around hitting prowess may allow him to put up MVP
numbers again.
Sleeper – Francisco Liriano, SP. He missed all of 2007 with Tommy John surgery, but he put up ridiculous numbers in 2006
and will emerge as the Twins ace with Johan Santana no longer there.
Concern – Francisco Liriano, SP. Pitchers who come off Tommy John surgery tend to struggle. Liriano is still the team’s
ace, but you have to be somewhat concerned.
Avoid – Brendan Harris, 2B/SS. He had a nice season in Tampa Bay and is expected to start at shortstop for the Twins, but
Adam Everett and Nick Punto’s presence may hurt Harris’ chances at putting up big numbers for your Fantasy team. Avoid
him until the later rounds.
Prospect Watch – Kevin Mulvey, SP. With Slowey, Baker, Perkins, Humber, and Blackburn, the Twins have a load of young
pitching prospects, but none of them have the potential that Mulvey has. He will likely start in the minors but will move up
into Minnesota’s rotation soon.
Chicago White Sox
Superstar – Javier Vasquez, SP. The White Sox ace had 15 wins last year, along with a 3.74 ERA and 213 strikeouts. His
high strikeout total help him become one of the top pitchers in Fantasy.
Sleeper – Josh Fields, 3B. He hit 23 home runs in just 373 at bats and will start this year at third base. His low average (.
244) was a concern but he should improve.
Concern – Joe Crede, 3B. Fields seems to have taken Crede’s job, so Crede has minimal value this year unless he can find
a starting job elsewhere.
Avoid – Carlos Quentin, OF. He seems to be on the losing end of a starting job with Jerry Owens in center field. Quentin
struggled in his first season with Arizona in 2007, and injuries were a big concern. Avoid Quentin for this year, at least.
Prospect Watch – Aaron Poreda, SP. The lefty was phenomenal in rookie ball last season, but the 2007 1st rounder still
has a while before he pitches in the majors.
Kansas City Royals
Superstar – Gil Meche, SP. The All-Star put up a nice 3.67 ERA and had 156 strikeouts in 2007, despite the 9-13 record
(which can be explained by the Royals’ horrible offense). Meche will not get any more wins with such run support, but his
stats are still consistent enough to make you want to draft him.
Sleeper – Brian Bannister, SP. The 2007 Rookie of the Year candidate fell apart at the end of last season and is having a
horrible spring, but his age and his 3.87 ERA as a rookie makes him a great sleeper pick.
Concern – Mark Grudzielanek, 2B. He has always been a consistent hitter, having batted .302 in 2007, but he is 37 years
old, and he has zero power (6 HRs in 2007)
Avoid – Tony Pena, SS. Pena will start again at short for the Royals, but he is known more for his defense. His offense is
below-average, so don’t bother getting him.
Prospect Watch – Mike Moustakas, 3B. Moustakas has great power and will be a star, but he probably won’t get past AA at
best this year. He will also likely switch to shortstop sometime soon because of Alex Gordon’s presence.
AL WEST
Los Angeles Angels
Superstar – Vladimir Guerrero, OF. .324, 27 HRs, 125 RBIs, 89 runs. His power has diminished, but he is still one of the top
outfielders in baseball.
Sleeper – Casey Kotchman, 1B. Kotchman hit .296 and had 68 RBIs and 64 runs scored in 2007. His mere 11 home runs
are a concern, but he has good power and should hit more dingers in 2008. He is only 25, so expect him to break out this
season.
Concern – Kelvim Escobar, SP. Escobar had an awesome 2007, but his shoulder is a huge concern. He will likely miss the
month of April, and if he returns healthy, he will be a pitcher worth having, but his shoulder still serves as a concern.
Avoid – Brandon Wood, 3B. He hits for a very low average despite pretty good power. But since Erick Aybar will likely start
at shortstop and Chone Figgins at third, Wood has no value.
Prospect Watch – Nick Adenhart, SP. Keep an eye on where Adenhart will start the season. The Angels’ top pitching
prospect may get a chance in the majors with injuries to John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar.
Seattle Mariners
Superstar – Erik Bedard, SP. Ignore his 9.69 spring ERA and focus on his 3.16 2007 ERA and 221 strikeouts. The high
strikeout total really makes Bedard a gem.
Sleeper – Jose Lopez, 2B. The young second baseman doesn’t hit for that high of an average, nor does he hit for much
power, but with a fine lineup batting ahead of Lopez, who will likely bat ninth, he could break out this season.
Concern – Ichiro Suzuki, OF. He’s still a superstar and a must-have on your fantasy team if available, but his dismal spring
is catching our attention.
Avoid – Bradon Morrow, P. Acquisition of Bedard and Carlos Silva halted Morrow’s hopes of becoming a starter. J.J. Putz’s
presence also prevents Morrow from becoming a closer. In conclusion, just avoid him.
Prospect Watch – Wladimir Balentien, OF. The top prospect is fighting Brad Wilkerson for the starting right fielder position,
and he is having a strong spring with a .350+ batting average. If Balentien is named the starter, he will be a nice sleeper to
have.
Oakland Athletics
Superstar – Joe Blanton, SP. Blanton was the one player who was not traded in the Athletics rebuilding offseason, and he
returns as the team’s ace.
Sleeper – Daric Barton, 1B. The top prospect will likely start as the team’s first baseman. Barton’s average may not be all
that high, but he will draw walks, and he has solid power. He is a real sleeper among the young Athletics lineup.
Concern – Eric Chavez, 3B. His numbers continue to decline, and injuries make Chavez even more of a risk. He can still hit
twenty homers, but his average won’t be much higher than .240.
Avoid – Emil Brown, OF. He probably will not win a starting spot, but even if he did, his numbers are too mediocre. He can
hit for an okay average, but he lacks much power or speed.
Prospect Watch – Gio Gonzalez, SP. The lefty, who was brought over in the Nick Swisher deal from the Chicago White Sox,
could crack the rotation sometime this year. He pitched very well in AA last season.
Texas Rangers
Superstar – Hank Blalock, 3B. His 2007 was cut short by injuries, but the 27 year old still has superstar potential. He played
very well in the short time he played last season, and is both a great power and contact hitter. Expect a .300, 30 homer
season.
Sleeper – Josh Hamilton, OF. He did not get full playing time in Cincinnati, but he is expected to start this year in center field
for the Rangers. He is on fire this spring, batting over .500 and has 13 RBIs. He could really break out this season.
Concern – Kevin Millwood, SP. He is the ace, but he is injury-prone and always has a high ERA (over 5 in 2007). Be careful
if you want to draft him.
Avoid – Frank Catalanotto, OF. Milton Bradley and Josh Hamilton push Catalanatto, who had always been a mediocre but
dependable everyday outfielder, out of the starting lineup. He will platoon with Marlon Byrd in left field at best. Avoid him.
Prospect Watch – Kasey Kiker, SP. It will be several years before Kiker makes the big leagues, but his high strikeout
percentage (27.6%, according to projectprospect.com) will make Kiker a player worth keeping an eye on all season.
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A side note to our readers: We were introduced to talented writer Ed Sul when he contacted us after discovering the site for
the first time. While we may eventually reach a limit in the number of columnists that we can feature here at
Fantasybaseball101.com, we encourage interested participants to contact us by going here.
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