|
|
April 4, 2008
Opening Day and Beyond
|
Well, Opening Day has come and gone, and my worst fear has come true… Moises Alou is on the DL. Anyone shocked?
But seriously, the 2008 season has begun and we’ve already seen some injuries through a grand total of two games. We’ve
also seen some key players start the season on the disabled list, so without further ado, let’s take a peek.
Perhaps the four most notable injuries involve Victor Martinez, Pedro Martinez, Carlos Zambrano and J.J. Putz. On Monday, V-
Mart stumbled when running toward second base and slightly pulled his hamstring. He is listed as day-to-day and no roster
moves have been made in Cleveland, though Kelly Shoppach may be a nice short fix for Victor Martinez owners. Speaking of
Martinez’ hamstrings, Pedro was roughed up on Tuesday and left the game in the fourth inning. He had an MRI scheduled for
Wednesday and it has been reported that Pedro will be on the DL for 4 to 6 weeks. Zambrano left his start early on Monday
with a cramp in his pitching hand. This has supposedly happened to Zambrano before, but of course will bear watching in the
future. He pitched very well in his 2008 debut going 6 and 2/3 innings giving up only 3 hits and one walk, no runs and 5 K’s.
On a pitch to Michael Young in the ninth on Tuesday night, Putz strained his ribcage and a MRI revealed inflammation in the
cartilage that attaches to a rib on his right side. Putz was placed on the 15-day DL, so a decent fantasy pick-up for some
early season saves will be Mark Lowe, though there may be the possibility of a closer-by-committee situation in Seattle.
On to the noteworthy fantasy pitching studs and sleepers who are starting the 2008 season on the disabled list or still in minor
league camp. So here are more than a bakers dozen of starters and relievers have yet to join their respective big league club:
Scot Shields: has had some forearm tightness, but a minor league stint will be in his future soon.
Andy Pettitte: Pettitte is scheduled to come off the DL to start against the Rays on Saturday. Monitor him closely at the
beginning of the season, but look for him to remain consistent as he has been throughout his career.
Mark Mulder: Mulder is recovering from his second rotator cuff surgery and threw live batting practice to minor leaguers this
past week. While Mulder has been limited in the past, he is not expected back until mid-May. Still the risk with Mulder is more
than likely not worth the reward, though perhaps a September waiver wire pick-up may just boost your team with a win or two.
Yovani Gallardo: The Brewer second year starter will be making his first rehab start at the Triple-A level on Friday and has
a mid-April return projected. Keep Gallardo stashed away in your DL spot and wait a start to see how his knee reacts to Major
League pitching situations.
Chris Capuano: Capuano visited Dr. James Andrews (read “we’re thinking about Tommy John surgery”) recently but it was
determined that four to six weeks of rehab will strengthen the tear in his pitching elbow.
B.J. Ryan: Ryan is expected to join the Blue Jays by the end of April, beginning of May. If you haven’t picked up Jeremy
Accardo yet, do it – don’t ask questions, just do it.
Brad Lidge: In keeping with the closer theme, Lidge is slated to pitch two more minor league games, and if all goes well, he
could return as early as Saturday. It’s a good thing too, as Tom Gordon stunk up the joint in his first outing of the season.
John Lackey: Lackey will be evaluated, again, by Dr. Lewis Yocum (read “we’ve thought about Tommy John surgery) and if
all goes well, may be able to pitch from a mound in a week.
Chad Gaudin: The A’s hurler pitched on Wednesday in a minor league stint and will be eligible to come off the disabled list
as of April 12th.
Orlando Hernandez: El Duque is still on the 15-day DL with a foot injury, but is scheduled to make a single-A start on
Thursday. Be patient with Hernandez and pick him up off your waiver wire if his first few big league starts in 2008 are decent.
Boof Bonser: Hold up a minute, Bonser’s not hurt. It’s a little more like “Buff” Bonser now as Bonser lost over 35 pounds in
the off season in the hopes of making himself more effective. I just wanted to call him “Buff” Bonser, no other reason to put
him in here.
Josh Beckett: Beckett didn’t travel to Japan with the Red Sox and it looks like it may have paid off. Beckett, and his creaky
back, is scheduled to come off the DL on Sunday and may pitch as early as Sunday against Toronto.
Chad Cordero: The Washington closer received a cortisone shot in his shoulder on Sunday and is listed currently as day-to-
day. If you haven’t already picked up Jon Rauch (see my “late round ERA/WHIP contingency plan”), grab him up as Cordero’s
injury may be more than it seems.
John Smoltz: Smoltz pitched in a minor league game on Sunday and was reported on the Braves official website to be ready
to go next weekend.
Jason Schmidt: The oft-injured Dodger pitcher is still a few weeks off from game-time use after recovering from a torn
labrum. Give him a few Major League starts before either picking him up or activating him if you drafted him
Scott Kazmir: The Rays pitcher (not Devil Rays – get it right folks) felt “really good” after throwing 35 pitches at minor league
camp. He’s still a few weeks off, so don’t go activating him quite yet.
Randy Johnson: The Big Unit was placed on the 15-day DL retroactive to March 22, which makes him eligible to come off on
the 6th of April. If Johnson’s back is good to go, activate him at your own risk.
Francisco Liriano: The Twins phenom, more than a year removed from Tommy John surgery, is making at least two minor
league starts before being cleared for his return to the majors – keep him stashed away and activate him as soon as he’s
available.
And finally, here’s our FB101 league update: our “late round ERA/WHIP contingency plan” paid off the day before “Opening
Day” with Jon Rauch picking up an easy one inning win, at the expense of a supposed blown save, courtesy of a Paul LoDuca
passed ball. Opening Day, however proved less fruitful in the late round set up reliever contingency policy front as Kazuo
Fukumori only got through 1/3 of an inning with a ghastly 81.00 ERA and a 12.00 WHIP, UGH!!! Pat Neshek, helped us out
with a nice inning of work and 3 K’s to boot. Matt Capps, in a non-save situation (as an aside to all Major League managers
out there – do NOT put your closers into games that are non-save situations, it’s a certainty that they will not be light’s out.
Just stop putting them in unless the game is on the line, got it?), got through 2/3 of an inning with a less than stellar 40.50
ERA and a 6.00 WHIP. Otherwise, the FB101 team is doing very well in the all the offensive categories. We’re in the top
three in all offensive categories (R, HR, RBI, and AVG), but struggling a bit in the SB category with a big goose-egg at this
point, but with Jose Reyes and Ichiro not stealing anything yet, I’m sure we’ll pick things up there too. Not much happening on
the waiver wire front either, just the standard early season pick-ups and drops, with the exception of picking up the
aforementioned Mark Lowe to grab a few saves. No trades or trade proposals of any consequence, though there was a semi-
ludicrous proposal for Jose Reyes submitted almost immediately after the draft that was rejected quicker than quick.
That’s it for this week, until next time…
|
March 27, 2008
Sports Talk NY Live: Draft Results and Analysis
|
Here at fantasybaseball101.com, we relentlessly endeavor to bring you the most up-to-date happenings around the world of
Major League Baseball and the alternate fantasy world surrounding the MLB. To this end, two of our fearless founders have
coaxed Sports Talk NY Live to partner with fantasybaseball101.com – Russell and Evan will be featured weekly on Sports Talk
NY Live as their local fantasy baseball experts. As an extra added bonus for the contributing writers of fantasybaseball101.
com, Sports Talk NY Live hosted a Yahoo! Fantasy Baseball League, where we will be fielding a team, and yours truly was
granted the distinct honor and privilege of managing FB101.com’s team. In each week’s On the Shelf, I’ll give a quick update
as to how the league is holding up and how the FB101 team is faring.
The Sports Talk NY Live Yahoo! Fantasy Baseball League (hereafter STNY League – “Sports Talk NY Live Yahoo! Fantasy
Baseball League,” like “Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim,” is just too damn long to type each time) conducted its live draft this
past Saturday at 9:15 AM EST. The STNY League is a 12 team, 5 x 5 rotisserie daily transaction league with the standard
statistical categories: R, HR, RBI, SB, and AVG on the batting side and W, S, K, ERA, and WHIP on the pitching side. There is
a 162 game maximum for positional playersand a 1550 inning limit for pitchers. The positional breakdown is as follows: 2 C,
1B, 2B, 3B, SS, CI, MI, 5 OF, Util, 2 SP, 2 RP, 5 P, 5 BNand DL.
So came the draft, and the FB101 lineup looks as such:
1. (3) José Reyes - SS 15. (171) Josh Hamilton – OF
2. (22) Ichiro Suzuki - OF 16. (190) Evan Longoria – 3B
3. (27) Lance Berkman – 1B, OF 17. (195) Josh Willingham – OF
4. (46) Carlos Guillén – 1B, SS 18. (214) Tom Gorzelanny – SP
5. (51) Jonathan Papelbon – RP 19. (219) J.D. Drew – OF
6. (70) Corey Hart – OF 20. (238) Mike Napoli – C
7. (75) Carlos Zambrano – SP 21. (243) Jeremy Accardo – RP
8. (94) Dan Uggla – 2B 22. (262) Ryan Garko – 1B
9. (99) Tim Lincecum – SP 23. (267) Hiroki Kuroda – SP
10. (118) Rich Hill – SP 24. (286) Billy Butler – 1B, OF
11. (123) Jeff Francoeur – OF 25. (291) Pat Neshek – RP
12. (142) Chad Billingsley – SP, RP 26. (310) Kazuo Fukumori – RP
13. (147) Matt Capps – RP 27. (315) Jon Rauch – RP
14. (166) Kevin Youkilis – 1B, 3B 28. (334) Chris Snyder – C
Round one of the draft went reasonably smoothly, with Alex Rodriguez going first, David Wright at number two, and Reyes at
three, followed by Hanley Ramirez, Albert Pujols, Chase Utley, Matt Holliday, Miguel Cabrera, Jimmy Rollins, Johan Santana,
Ryan Howard and Carl Crawford. Most surprising were Pujols being the overall fifth pick, what with his funky elbow, and
Holliday’s slipping to seven. In my opinion, in a 5 x 5 league, the best players have to go first, and by “best players,” I mean
five-category players. Hanley Ramirez had a better 2007 statistically than Reyes, but I can’t help but feel as though Reyes has
something to prove this year to his detractors for his (and his team’s) monumental meltdown last September. With the loss of
Cabrera to the Tigers, Hanley’s stock on draft day dropped just a bit in my eyes.
Rounds two, three, and four saw more of the same – top fifty players going like hot cakes. I was frankly hoping, praying even,
that Jake Peavy would last for me to pick with my overall 22, but alas, was scooped up six picks earlier at #16. Ichiro, Berkman,
and Guillen were all three and one half category players who filled voids that I was looking to fill early. I wanted a top tier
shortstop, and Reyes fit that requirement – Guillen with his dual position eligibility gives FB101 a nice MI option. Same story
with Berkman: I could use him in the OF, but I’d rather fill my 1B first. Ichiro tempers whatever issues I may have with a slightly
lower AVG that might come up later in the draft, but the key to these first four picks is health. Combined, my top four picks lost
fewer than 35 man-games to either injury or rest in 2007 – that to me is huge, particularly since some of the bigger names
picked earlier in the draft lost a lot more than my top four (of course, I was going into this draft knowing I was going to be
chasing pitching in the late-early rounds, picks 5-9, and middle rounds, picks 10-18); cases in point (pick number - man-
games lost): Ryan Howard (11-18), Alfonso Soriano (17-27), Mark Teixeira (23-30), Aramis Ramirez (39-30), and Manny
Ramirez (40-29).
Round five started the inevitable closer run with Jonathan Papelbon going at pick 51, and at the end of round six, five closers
were off the board with one team netting two. I grabbed Corey Hart with my round six pick, kind of surprised he was still
available – legitimately, since Hart is a solid four category player being able to net 20-plus steals while putting up a .290
average with 85 runs, 85 RBI and 20 HR.
Rounds seven through eighteen saw the FB101 team draft six pitchers, five of which are starters. Carlos Zambrano may have
been a reach with my seventh round pick, but he wasn’t going to last until round eight, where I was eyeing Dan Uggla, or the
ninth, where I nabbed Tim Lincecum.While Zambrano’s win totals have increased over the past three years, so has his ERA
and WHIP. Call it a gamble, but I’ll take the 4.00 ERA and 1.30 WHIP with 20 wins, particularly with my late round ERA/WHIP
contingency plan – we’ll discuss a bit later. Lincecum had 150 K in 146 1/3 innings in 2007 and is a year wiser and stronger in
2008. While his offensive teammates (yes, that word offensive bears a double meaning here) in San Francisco this year will
have to help him out a bit, I think he’ll put up a higher win total than his relatively low seven last year, while pitching about 25-
30 more innings. Again, we’re focusing on relatively healthy players with decent track records: Papelbon was a horse last year
in the Red Sox bullpen, Hart only started from June 2007, Zambrano hasn’t pitched fewer than 214 innings over the past 3
years, and Lincecum is just 23 years old.
In rounds eight through eighteen, I finished up my infield, got my second closer, and essentially finished up my outfield as well,
all the while picking up more solid starting pitching. Uggla is as solid a second-tier second baseman as there is. Youkilis still
has dual eligibility in Yahoo!, which was the main reason I took him in round 14 as a back-up plan to my big reach, which was
coming in in round 16 with Evan Longoria. Granted, I didn’t know for certain if Longoria would be available in round 16, but it
was worth the risk of waiting it out over a two-round period. As of press time, Longoria was sent down to the minors, even
though statistically, he had the best preseason of all the Tampa Bay hitters. I expect Longoria to be recalled at some point
early in the first half of the season.
Let’s skip to the last ten rounds, rounds 19 through 28. Remember about two paragraphs back I spoke of my “late round
ERA/WHIP contingency plan”? Well, here’s my secret. Ready for it? You have a pen? Your phone to call your friends? Fine,
fine…here it is:I tend to go after setup men in the late rounds. Not just any setup men like Hideki Okajima or Aaron Heilman
(though Heilman is high up in an NL-only format), I’m talking those guys who, in my estimation, have a legitimate shot at
closing at some point in the season as well as turning in a nice low ERA and a low WHIP. Jonathan Broxton is a perfect
example of this type of player, though Takashi Saito is firmly entrenched as the Dodger closer. Broxton put up a 2.85 ERA and
a 1.15 WHIP while striking out 99 batters in 86 innings. Do the math: two Jonathan Broxtons will counterbalance your
Zambrano 4.00 ERA and WHIP of 1.30 and bring it collectively to about 3.43 ERA and WHIP of 1.23. If you take a look at the
top performer from last year’s Yahoo! Friends and Family League, the low ERA was 3.49 and the low WHIP was 1.20, next
best WHIP was 1.24.
Broxton was gone in round 21 – unfortunate, since I was eyeing him for the 22nd round. But I did get Jeremy Accardo in the
21st two picks before Broxton was taken. Yes, I know, B.J. Ryan (round 20 selection) is the Toronto closer, but remember, he
had Tommy John Surgery in April of 2007. Toronto brass lied to the press about Ryan’s injury in 2007, and I don’t trust them
now about his prospects in 2008. If Accardo puts up another 30 saves with a 2.14 ERA and 1.11 WHIP, I’ll be thrilled. My 25th,
26th, and 27th round picks also were predicated on the fact that these pitchers may be closers at some point throughout the
season and will therefore only positively contribute to my ERA/WHIP bottom line. Neshek, Fukumori, and Rauch are all solid
setup men with nothing but upside, especially if their respective closers break down or get injured.
Perhaps the biggest reach of this trio was Neshek, since Joe Nathan is as healthy as closers come and a Nathan trade was,
even at the time, only a small possibility. Nathan, having received a four year, $47 million contract from Minnesota on Monday,
demonstrated that the risk will almost definitely not pay off. Fukumori may be considered a bigger reach than Neshek, but
again, I’m looking at overall health of the bullpen. C.J. Wilson was tagged the default closer following the Eric Gagne trade and
the non-tendering of Akinori Otsuka, but has been suffering from biceps tendonitis. Primary setup man Joaquin Benoit has
missed approximately a month of Spring Training with a weak arm, and “Everyday” Eddie Guardado, the newly signed left-
handed setup man, has been ailed by knee soreness. That’s three guys to jump for Fukumori, but if the Rangers bullpen
remains in flux and Fukumori can stay healthy, he may nail down the closer spot in Texas. Jon Rauch is likely the best bet of
the trio to close at some point this season. While Chad Cordero isn’t aged at all at 26, he also isn’t an overpowering closer.
Rauch, on the other hand, is older than Cordero at 29, has better stuff, and is a far more intimidating presence than Cordero
is.
So you got it, right? Late round ERA/WHIP contingency plan… wrote it down? Good. Now, once the first month of the season
rolls around, just wait for all the closer jobs to open up and scour the waiver wire and hope you beat everyone else in your
league to them.
I didn’t discuss a few of my picks, specifically my catchers. When it comes to a league with a two-catcher system, I don’t place
much stock in catchers, so I just went for the best available at the time. Snyder may be a pleasant surprise, so I’m interested
to see how the season plays out.
My favorite picks – yeah, we all have our faves. I have to say that mine were Billingsley in the 12th round, Hamilton in the 15th,
Drew in the 19th, Garko in the 22nd and Butler in the 24th. Honestly, I almost fell out of my chair when Billingsley was still
around at the 142nd pick in the draft – nothing against Barry Zito or A.J. Burnett, but Billingsley was an absolute steal as late
as I got him in the 12th. By far my favorite pick of the STNY League, though, had to be Josh Hamilton in the 15th round. This
is a guy who has almost limitless potential with a bat in his hand, a full time starting gig, and a hitter friendly ballpark.
While Hamilton is my favorite pick, my best (or worst) pick of the whole STNY League draft could end up being J.D. Drew. For
150 games of the season, we, Red Sox Nation, hated J.D. Drew, and cursed Theo Epstein for the $70 million he gave him,
and rightfully so: Drew stunk up the joint at Fenway and only got a reprieve from eternal damnation with one grand slam off
Fausto Carmona in game 6 of the 2007 ALCS. He’s been swinging the bat very well in preseason, but unfortunately, that
doesn’t count in fantasy land. Drew is also a risk due to his injury filled past, so we will see whether he lives up to his potential.
Billy Butler in the 24th round may just save my skin if any of my OF’s go down with an injury. His dual eligibility makes him
extremely valuable, and his “demotion” to DH for Kansas City will mean less wear-and-tear on his body and more focus on
hitting. He’s turning 22 at the beginning of the season, so Butler’s career as a slugger can only be looking up (see David Ortiz,
the Minnesota years).
My least favorite pick – Hiroki Kuroda in the 23rd round. I don’t really like taking Japanese starting pitchers who have no major
league experience. My exception to that would be Daisuke Matsuzaka (I didn’t even have to look up the spelling… “How you
like them apples?”). Dice-K’s international experience in the Olympics and eight year career with the Seibu Lions permits me
this immunity (plus I’m a Sox fan, gimme a break!). So, the inevitable comparisons ensue: Will Kuroda be like Dice-K?
Probably not, but he’ll be better than Hideki Irabu, I’m pretty sure about that.
Strengths and weaknesses: The FB101 team in the STNY League is an extremely well-balanced team, which was my goal
going into the draft. The team may struggle slightly in the HR category, seeing as there are no “big boppers” on the roster –
again, I was going for balance. There may also be a slight deficiency in the Wins column, but I am planning on consistency
from my starters and some poached wins from my relievers. I’m pretty sure I’ll handle the steals and average categories while
putting up very solid, if not superb, runs and RBI totals. My K’s, again, should be solid, and my late round ERA/WHIP
contingency plan should net me a top notch final number in saves, ERA, and WHIP. <Sigh> Time to get to bed so I can get up
for a 6:05 AM (ugh, AM) Red Sox start… back to injuries next week, folks.
|
March 21, 2008
Movie Mania
|
Do you ever ask yourself who would play YOU in a feature motion picture? I mean what actor or actress? I’ve been thinking
about it for a while now, since I took 2 weeks off while losing my shirt, money, and dignity in Vegas. So here’s my breakdown
with pluses and minuses for each one:
Jack Nicholson – great actor, just crazy enough, but far too old.
Clive Owen – too British and burly, but wasn’t he good in Inside Man?
Ben Affleck – nice guy, but did you see Gigli or Jersey Girl? I rest my case.
Tom Cruise – a la Top Gun, absolutely, but now? Sorry Tom.
So this brings me to my choice – Jason Bourne himself, Matt Damon. Perfect fit. Boston guy married a regular gal. Hell of an
actor, and not a bad looking short guy to boot. Only thing he’s going to need is a prosthetic nose – see Ocean’s Thirteen and
you’ll know what I mean.
In keeping with our actor theme, let’s highlight some of the injured fantasy stars by seeing who would play them on the big
screen:
Albert Pujols – In Spring Training, Pujols is picking up right where he left off last season, hitting at a torrid pace and hitting
the long ball to boot. He is showing little ill-effect from the over publicized torn ligament in his right elbow. Unless the partial
tear propagates into a complete tear, Pujols will continue to be a sure-fire top fantasy producer this season.
As far as Pujols’ acting equivalent, we’re going to look at our Oscar award winning actor Daniel Day-Lewis. The way I see it, if
he can play a scout who befriends Indians in Last of the Mohicans, he can play a Dominican perennial MVP first baseman.
Brad Lidge – The Philly closer pitched batting practice on March 14th as well as March 17th. There were no reported
problems with his twice surgically repaired knee, and if all goes well, he will be considered game-ready by March 19th or 20th.
Still, take caution with Lidge and his creaky knee.
Chad Michael Murray, yup, Chad Michael Murray is Brad Lidge for the day in Hollywood. Where the hell does he come up with
this stuff you say? Check out The Lone Ranger made for TV movie on WB. Chad Michael Murray plays Luke Hartman, aka,
The Lone Ranger, and he’s always followed by whom? Tonto – also known as Tom Gordon in fantasy baseball land. You’ve
got to piggy-back Lidge with Gordon if you want to be sure to get all those saves in Philly this year.
Ryan Zimmerman – Zimmerman left a game last week with tightness in his right hip flexor, but stated after the game he could
have played if the team needed him to. At least it’s the preseason and the Nats didn’t need him. Just a quick update for
Zimmerman, who’s represented in Hollywood by Vince Vaughn particularly as Jeremy Grey to Owen Wilson’s John Beckwith in
Wedding Crashers – “Rule #76. No excuses. Play like a champion!”
Josh Beckett – More trouble for the Boston pitchers. With Curt Schilling recently placed on the 60-day DL, Beckett was
experiencing tightness in his back as well as back spasms and will not accompany the team to Japan. He felt no tightness
during long toss sessions, but this is clearly a concern for the Red Sox pitching staff. Perhaps the signing of Bartolo Colon
was not such a bad idea after all.
Leonardo DiCaprio is the movie stand-in for Beckett. Leo has proven that he can be physical; reference The Quick and the
Dead, The Basketball Diaries, as well as Gangs of New York and Blood Diamond for DiCaprio’s athletic prowess (though in
The Basketball Diaries he was better with drugs than with the roundball). Plus, both have dated some pretty hot chicks –
neither Gisele nor Alyssa Milano are bad looking babes.
Jeff Francoeur – Francoeur’s injury is a bit scary in that he got beaned by St. Louis’ Todd Wellemeyer in the second
inning. Luckily, Francoeur escaped the incident with a split lip – he was down on the ground for a while, but never lost
consciousness and did not suffer a concussion from the HBP. Since I can’t use the Energizer Bunny (Happy Easter
everybody!) as a Hollywood stand-in, it seems as though Russell Crowe would fit the bill quite nicely. All I have to say is take a
look at both Gladiator and Cinderella Man, and you’ll know what I mean.
Ryan Church – Church is doing just fine from his return from a Grade 2 concussion he suffered in a collision with Marlon
Anderson nearly 2 weeks ago. He’ll be the Mets starting right fielder come Opening Day and he’ll be represented by Rocky
Balboa himself, Sly Stallone. Luckily for Church, he’s a better looking guy than Balboa after taking his knocks.
Randy Johnson – The Big Unit has been pitching in the Cactus League for the D-backs and has looked pretty darn good
(stats-wise) for a 44 year old guy. Johnson was upset with his first outing against Colorado, but came back against the Los
Angeles Angels of Anaheim with a very solid day out on the mound.
As an aside, is there an abbreviation we writers can use for the “Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim”? That’s really long to type
and I’m hoping I don’t have to do it very much….
Mel Gibson will be standing in for the Big Unit on the big screen. Mel Gibson? Yes, Mel Gibson, on stilts, with the same hair he
had in Braveheart. Now you can see it, can’t you?
And finally:
Kaz Matsui – In one of the strangest two weeks off for a baseball player, Matsui had surgery to repair an anal fissure, or a
tear in the skin surrounding the anus. Matsui’s is probably the most disgusting injury the MLB has seen this year, next to Felix
Pie’s twisted testicle. I kid you not folks. I’m not smart enough to make this stuff up. Matsui will be out for at least two weeks,
making him doubtful for Opening Day, while Pie was out for less than a week.
This dynamic duo can only be represented by the Rush Hour crew of Jackie Chan and Chris Tucker. Can’t you just see Felix
driving Kaz around in a Corvette saying “Don’t you ever touch a black man’s radio, boy!”
Sometimes reality is stranger than fantasy, isn’t it?
Happy drafting this week everyone, and again, Happy Easter.
|
March 17, 2008
Fantasy Effect of the Mitchell Report on Current Major Leaguers
|
This week, we are going in a different direction here at On the Shelf. Former United States Senator George J. Mitchell headed
a twenty month investigation at the behest of Major League Baseball Commissioner Allan H. “Bud” Selig, and released the
Report to the Commissioner of Baseball of an Independent Investigation into the Illegal Use of Steroids and Other
Performance Enhancing Substances by Players in Major League Baseball – AKA the Mitchell Report. On December 13th of
2007, the Mitchell Report named 89 former and current MLB players who purportedly used performance enhancing drugs
(PED’s) at some point in their careers.
This article is going head in another route than the RotoWire article written in late December 2007 by Russell Sandman and
Evan Rosen that examined the impact of the Mitchell Report on fantasy baseball. Russell and Evan wrote:
“Perhaps those active players named will have impetus to send a message to their detractors and will prove their worth anew.
Fantasy general managers should prepare to weigh the emotional fragility or toughness of an active player targeted in the
Mitchell Report, and to adjust their appraised value accordingly. This may be where fantasy baseball and psychoanalysis
intersect.”
This previous statement is where On the Shelf will broaden the examination of some of the more prominent active players
listed in the Mitchell Report. Specifically, we are going to scrutinize these players and their performance while they were
allegedly using PED’s. More importantly, however, will be our appraisal of what we can expect from these same players in the
future. Breaking things down even further, we will analyze two samples: first (we’ll call them Group 1, collectively) – players
who have neither admitted to use of PED’s or have declined to comment on their suspected use, i.e. Barry Bonds, Jason
Giambi, Gary Sheffield, Eric Gagne, Miguel Tejada, and Roger Clemens. Secondly will be those players who have
admitted to using PED’s for whatever reason (Group 2) – Andy Pettitte, Brian Roberts, and Troy Glaus. As an
afterthought, it does bear mentioning, that Gagne, Giambi, and Paul Lo Duca have all separately issued apologies for being
a clubhouse “distraction” but never specifically or implicitly admitted to using PED’s.
Brian McNamee, a personal trainer who worked for, and with, some of the Majors brightest stars, was pitted against those
same stars after the release of the Mitchell Report. McNamee, a former St. John’s varsity ballplayer, worked for the NYPD in
1990, but left for reasons only known to the NYPD in 1993. In 1995, after a stint with the New York Yankees, McNamee took a
job as a personal trainer in the Toronto Blue Jays organization.
Following interviews with former “Bash Brother” Jose Canseco, and McNamee, the Mitchell Report states that Roger Clemens,
clearly the biggest name listed, used various PED’s, including human growth hormone (HGH), Deca-Durabolin, Winstrol,
Sustanon, and maybe Anadrol, all of which are on the MLB’s list of banned substances. Kirk Radomski, who can be credited
with distributing PED’s directly to MLB players and also to McNamee, corroborated with McNamee in that he (Radomski) sold
PED’s to McNamee for redistribution to various players.
Whichever PED’s scandal we are talking about, be it the Mitchell Report, or the Victor Conte/BALCO indignity, there will be
fantasy baseball ramifications as well as real world ramifications. Physically speaking, these players who “allegedly” – God, I
hate that word, “allegedly” – used PED’s can go through a number of tangible as well as ethereal changes. Side effects of
PED’s in male use can include:
“inhibition of natural hormones, liver damage, decrease in “good” cholesterol and increase in “bad” cholesterol, gynocomastia
(development of breast tissue in men), acne, “Roid Rage”, baldness, cardiovascular problems, stunted growth (if taken too
early in life), prostate enlargement, high blood pressure, kidney problems, sterility, and immune system changes” (http://www.
steroid.com/side.php)
While most of the side effects can be considered adverse, the last one listed, immune system changes, is an interesting study.
Andy Pettitte stated in his apology that “anyone that has followed my career knows that I have battled elbow problems the
entire time. Again, like I said before, I never took this (PED’s) to get an edge on anyone. I did this to try to get off the DL and
to do my job. And again, for that, I am sorry for the mistakes I’ve made.”
Good for Andy. Seriously. At least he has the stones to admit he made a mistake, took HGH in 2002 and 2004, and is taking
responsibility for it. He’ll be going into the 2008 season with a clear conscience, although he may be called to testify in the
Roger Clemens perjury case, which may serve as an anxious diversion. Even though he’s a Yankee, I hope he does have a
good season – he has always been a consistent pitcher, though never overpowering, who will get the job done.
Speaking of player who admitted their faults, Brian Roberts claims that his naming in the Mitchell Report will not affect his
future play. He states, “It’s not the end of the world. It's not the biggest thing in the world to me. It's really not. I've sincerely
apologized and I know I made a mistake, but it won't change the rest of my life. I won't let it change the rest of my life.” B-Rob
goes on to say, “In the end, I have to answer to God. That's the only person I answer to, when the day comes. That's the only
thing I worry about.” I’ll say it again, good for Brian. He realizes and understands that George Mitchell isn’t the end-all of his
career. He realizes that the public examination of his transgression isn’t the only litmus test on whether or not he’s a good
person. He may struggle with the losses of Erik Bedard and Miguel Tejada, but know that Roberts is ready to go in 2008
and ready to prove every critic wrong.
Andy Pettitte and Brian Roberts are not only examples of Major League ballplayers who made mistakes, but are also examples
of how human beings should conduct themselves after they make an egregious error in judgment. Kudos to Brian McNamee
as well, he did some things (lots of things) he isn’t proud of, and he knows it. He is doing what he must to right his wrongs –
kids everywhere can learn something from these three guys. Your parents always advised you to tell the truth, and let’s face
it, when you do, even when you mess up, you are granted a certain amount of clemency for telling the truth. This is why we
Catholics have confession – tell the truth to God, and MEAN IT, and you will be forgiven.
So, this brings us to fantasy time… what to expect from the aforementioned players in this diatribe. From Pettitte, Roberts, and
Glaus, I don’t expect anything less than what they produced last year. Pettitte will give you 30 starts, 15 W, 3.95 ERA and 1.38
WHIP. Roberts should net you 12 or so HR, 90 runs, 55 RBI, and 35-40 SB. I anticipate Glaus to return to 35 HR, 95-100 RBI,
85 R, and his standard .250, especially with his new Albert Pujols protection plan.
As for the others mentioned above, frankly, I think they will be somewhat distracted by all this Mitchell Report business. I
imagine it’s going to be like a splinter in their finger that they just can’t remove, and it keeps festering and festering. Will some
of these guys not admit to their “alleged” use of PED’s? Probably not, and it’s too bad because they won’t be looked at as just
ball players anymore, they’ll be looked at as negative role models. So here’s my roto-rundown of the other major players in
the Mitchell Report:
Gary Sheffield – When healthy, Sheff has always been consistent at around 37 HR, 115 RBI, 95-100 R, and a .295 BA. In his
new lineup, expect nothing less from him, he’s always been a hard-nosed character and I look forward to a steady Sheffield in
2008.
Jason Giambi – Giambi will be fighting with Hideki Matsui for playing time this season if Giambi is going to be DH-ing for Joe
Girardi. If he wins the 1B job though, his numbers should look something like: 35 HR, 110 RBI, 85 R, and .285 BA
Miguel Tejada – The language barrier is going to work in Tejada’s favor when it comes to this Mitchell Report fiasco. 30 HR,
125 RBI, 105 R and .300 is not unrealistic for Miggy with Carlos Lee and Lance Berkman as protection.
Eric Gagne – Another player I have a gripe with (see On the Shelf: Caveat Emptor, Part II, Chris Carpenter). Honestly, I
thought the Red Sox would have a great seventh-eighth inning tandem in Hideki Okajima and Gagne leading up to
Jonathan Papelbon in the ninth, but of course, that didn’t happen - Gagne went down faster than the Hindenburg (Thank
God the Sox didn’t). Remember, Gagne hasn’t been light’s out caliber since 2004, I honestly believe that Gagne will have the
hardest time with the Mitchell Report findings out of all the named players. Milwaukee took a $10 million chance on Gagne, but
if his past performances in Texas as well as Boston will predict anything, the risk will far outweigh the reward. – my hopeful
prognostication: 25-30 saves, 3.75 ERA, 1.20 WHIP.
Barry Bonds – Frankly, I expect nothing from Barry. Personally, I think he has lied to everyone: his family, the press, the
American public, and to a federal grand jury. If it was found that he perjured himself, his family name will be besmirched even
more than it already has been. I feel bad for Bobby Bonds and Willie Mays. I feel bad for Hank Aaron. Do I feel bad for Barry, I
shouldn’t, and I don’t.
Roger Clemens – Listen to the testimony everyone, it’s on YouTube, and figure out who you believe. A personal trainer who
has no reason to lie, or a seven-time Cy Young award winner with everything to lose by coming clean. My money’s on Brian
McNamee. Thank you Roger for everything you did in Boston, and I’m glad you did it clean, but that’s where my thanks, and
respect for you ends. The Houston Astros are planning on honoring Clemens’ contract and Clemens has reported to the
‘Stros minor league camp and has already pitched batting practice. I’m going to hold fantasy judgment on Clemens for now,
but if he does come back to pitch, I’ll be the first to pick him up since he has the most to prove of any of the players named in
the Mitchell Report.
Am I a psychologist? No. Am I a psychoanalyst? Negative on that one as well. What I can admit to is being a dentist, and I can
unequivocally say in my own opinion, is that Roger Clemens is full of it when he says that he therapeutically injected himself
with lidocaine. Roger, all you’d be doing with lido is getting your butt cheek numb – shame on you.
|
March 4, 2008
Caveat Emptor, Part II
|
A lot can happen in one week…
I refinanced my house, decided that I was going to eat Japanese food for the first time, and scored my first hat trick in over 15
years. We saw Daniel Day-Lewis avenge his loss from Gangs of New York (Damn you Adrian Brody!) with his ridiculously
adept performance as Daniel Plainview in 'There Will Be Blood'. Since our last article, Castro stepped down from power in
Cuba – seriously – we couldn’t import a decent cigar for the better part of 49 years, but now ;-) ….
Like I said, a lot can happen in a week. Kinda like when I’m totally confident with my AL review, then I find out Scott Kazmir
goes down for two weeks with something that felt “kind of like a hyperextension”. Good Lord! OK – back to the editing board
and… OK – AL Caveat Emptor is as good as it gets. If someone gets hurt between now and publishing time, tough cookies… I’
ll catch it next week! On second thought, make that two weeks – first off to the roulette tables in Vegas. Mmm… complimentary
Mojitos… (Insert Homer Simpson drool here)….
Same deal as last week with our NL friends: zero to four. Zero meaning buy with reckless abandon on draft day, four meaning
don’t touch ‘em with a ten foot pole. Anywhere in between, that’s up for interpretation and personal taste: one – be a bit
cautious, but I’ll still be buying high or at value; two – be wary, but still buy at fair market value or see if that particular player
will slip a few spots; three – be on guard with selections of three, I probably won’t be buying these guys, but if they slither far
enough down my roto draft board, I’ll give them a shot.
So, putting cigars down and Mojitos aside, here is your NL version of Caveat Emptor…
Arizona
Chad Tracy – 3B/1B: Tracy suffered from a blood clot in his right leg last November. He also had surgery on his right knee in
September of 2007 to repair a microfracture. Tracy started light running in late February – (3)
Randy Johnson – P: The Big Unit underwent a second surgery on a herniated disk in August, 2007. He claims he is in good
shape for the 2008 campaign, but Johnson's medical past is cause for concern come draft day – (2) to (3)
Atlanta
Mark Teixeira – 1B: Teixeira had his left knee scoped in November. He proclaims he's good to go this spring – (½)
Mike Hampton – P: Hampton pulled his hamstring pitching in winter ball and is hopeful to be ready for the spring. Beware a bit
though with his past medical history, but he's still a viable late round fantasy option – (3)
Mike Gonzalez – P: Gonzalez had Tommy John surgery in May of 2007 and shouldn't be ready until after the All-Star break –
(4)
Chicago
Aramis Ramirez – 3B: Ramirez was shut down for the Cubs first Cactus league game with tightness in his throwing shoulder.
This had been only a throwing issue, but may perhaps drop Aramis a few spots on your draft board – (2)
Cincinnati
Ryan Freel – OF: Freel is coming off back surgery in August 2007 and is expected to be good to go for 2008. Feel free to pick
up Freel for those extra SB's – (1)
Alex Gonzalez – SS: It was found that the Cinci shortstop has a compression fracture in his left knee and will be re-evaluated
by doctors in three weeks. This development does not bode well for Gonzalez as no timetable has been set for his return. Plan
on another SS in your roto league if you've already drafted Gonzo – (3½)
Colorado – no major fantasy injury concerns
Florida
Anibal Sanchez – P: Won't be ready until at least June or July following shoulder surgery – (4)
Josh Willingham – OF: Willingham is ready for spring training after nursing a herniated disk during the off season. Feel free to
pick him up in your middle to late rounds to fill out your fantasy outfield – (½)
Hanley Ramirez – SS: Hanley had surgery on his left shoulder in October last year, but still is a top 5 pick in any and all
formats. He may, however have a slight power drop-off from last year, but he's still near the top of my draft board.
Houston
Hunter Pence – OF: Hunter, LOOK OUT FOR THE GLASS!!!
Los Angeles
Yhency Brazoban – P: The Dodger reliever is good to go for the spring following surgery to repair a torn labrum in his right
shoulder – (1)
Rafael Furcal – SS: Furcal's playing time was limited last season due to a left ankle sprain he suffered in Spring Training
2007. Judging from his play in the Caribbean World Series, he SHOULD be a safe middle-of-the-road shortstop pick in fantasy
drafts this year – (2)
Jason Schmidt – P: The former 18 game winner only pitched in six games last season, posting an abysmal 6.31 ERA with a
1.79 WHIP. Fantasy owners and the Dodgers are hoping for a return to his 2003-2004 form, but a fatigued arm following a
side session may be cause for concern with his surgically repaired shoulder – (3)
Milwaukee
Yovani Gallardo – P: A surprise pickup in the 2007 Fantasy season, Gallardo had arthroscopic surgery on his left knee and
will be out for the entirety of Spring Training and will more than likely begin the season on the DL – (2) to (3)
Ben Sheets – P: Now fully healed from a myriad of ailments last season, Sheets will begin the 2008 campaign what can be
described to as close to healthy as Sheets has ever been in his oft-injured career. When his health is flourishing, however,
Sheets can be a dominating number one – (1½) to (2½)
Chris Capuano – P: Capuano fills out the injured pitching Triple Crown for the Brew Crew. He's been given the OK to throw,
but will be limited in swinging a bat. Still though, a solid late round pitcher - (1½)
New York
Carlos Delgado – 1B: Delgado is in full swing following hand surgery in October and should be considered for a bounce-back
year this season, though his age may be a bit of a concern – (2) Post Script: After this article was written, Delgado returned to
New York for an MRI on his sore right hip. He is considered day-to-day, but again, this goes back to his age becoming a
concern and he may be wearing down.
Ryan Church and Marlon Anderson – OF: Church collided with Marlon Anderson on a pop fly and sustained a concussion,
Anderson suffered a bruised sternum. Both are considered day-to-day, but Church will not play until he is free of concussion
symptoms - (½) for Anderson, and (2) to (3) for Church.
Orlando Hernandez – P: El Duque was given the green light for the 2008 season following right foot surgery in October last
year – (1)
Carlos Beltran – OF: Beltran had both knees scoped in October and claims that the pain last year hampered his ability to steal
some bases. Still a top 5-10 OF in all formats – (1)
Duaner Sanchez – P: Missed all of last season recovering from right shoulder surgery, but is expected back in the Mets pen
this year – (1)
Endy Chavez – OF: Chavez should be ready to go after injuring his right hamstring and ankle in winter league play. He'll be
the back-up du jour in the Met outfield, but don't expect a lot from Endy unless some injuries pop up - (2)
Philadelphia
Brad Lidge – P: This one hurts – caught his spikes throwing BP and needed to get his already repaired right knee repaired
again. He'll be out 3-6 weeks, but is aiming for an Opening Day return. Just in case, pick up Tom Gordon – (2) to (3)
Kris Benson – P: Had rotator cuff surgery in March 2007 and is not expected back before the All-Star break – (4)
Pittsburgh
Freddy Sanchez – Sanchez underwent arthroscopic surgery on his throwing shoulder in September of last year. The 2006 NL
batting champ should be good to go in 2008 – pick him up late rounds for a BA boost – (1)
San Diego
Brian Giles – OF: Giles is presently listed as doubtful to start the season on time, but he claims he'll be ready to patrol RF in
pitcher-friendly PETCO. A career .293 hitter, look for Giles to bounce back from his .271 from last year – (2)
Mark Prior – P: I know, I know, same ole song and dance... potential down to his toes, but just can't seem to stay healthy. We'll
see what happens when he's due back to the Padre rotation in mid-May. Worth a late-rounder perhaps? - (3½)
Randy Wolf – P: Following shoulder surgery last September, Wolf should get regular reps in the Padre preseason – even the
fourth pitcher in San Diego's rotation deserves fantasy consideration simply based on their home field – (1)
San Francisco
Noah Lowry – P: Lowry had some fatigue in his pitching forearm in the final month of last season, but should be considered
ready to go in 2008
Barry Bonds – OF: I'm putting Barry in here simply because he is, at present, a man without a team, and this is where he was
last seen. With additional positive steroid tests from 2000 being made available to the public, it's going to be difficult for Bonds
to find a team willing to take the absurd amount of scrutiny that comes with him – Bonds gets an honorary (4) simply because
he's Barry.
St Louis
Chris Carpenter – P: I have a personal beef with Carpenter in that he personally destroyed two of my fantasy teams last
season, similar to the way Randy Johnson did so in 2003. I'm sure Chris is a nice guy, but he won't be finding his way onto my
fantasy team this season following Tommy John surgery and a hopeful post-All-Star break return – (4)
Mark Mulder – P: Mulder underwent shoulder surgery in September 2007 and is due to return to the Cardinals pitching staff in
or around May – (3)
Juan Encarnacion – OF: Encarnacion is out for the season with a fractured eye socket after getting hit with a foul ball last
season – (4)
Matt Clement – P: The Cardinals took a flier on Clement following the debacle otherwise known as the 2006 and 2007
seasons. Shoulder trouble has limited the former All-Star since 2006, but pitching coach Dave Duncan claims Clement will be
ready to go slightly after Opening Day – (3) based on historical evidence
Troy Glaus – 3B: Glaus had surgery on his left foot to relieve plantar fasciitis in the last month of the 2007 campaign. The
2002 World Series MVP is hoping for a new start and better numbers in St. Louis – (1½)
Albert Pujols – 1B: Pujols has maintained that he has had a right ligament sprain for years and it has not affected his on-field
production. He was hobbled last season with hamstring injuries as well; this season, however, still an easy top ten pick - (1½)
Washington
Paul Lo Duca – C: Lo Duca had his left knee scoped this past January and is taking it easy the first few weeks of Spring
Training. The arrival of Johnny Estrada may have a lasting effect on Lo Duca's numbers even more than Lo Duca's knee – (3)
Ryan Zimmerman – 3B: Had surgery to repair the hamate bone in his left wrist, and is expected to be 100% for Opening Day.
A top ten 3B in all formats.
Cristian Guzman – SS: Guzman only played 46 games last year, but did hit .328 in those 46. A torn thumb ligament suffered
while tagging Josh Barfield out when attempting to steal has been surgically repaired and Guzman is expected to be good to
go for Spring Training – (1½)
Nick Johnson – 1B: A broken right femur sidelined Johnson for the entire 2007 season. Three surgeries later, Johnson's leg is
100%, but his bat speed, admittedly “has a [long way] to go”. Not to mention, he's competing with Dmitri Young for playing time
at first for the Nationals, if he wins the job, could be a boon for your fantasy roster - (2) to (3)
There you have it, my Senior Circuit friends. Next week, we’re going to tackle something a bit different here at On the Shelf.
Since I really am going to Vegas and am certainly not going to be looking for a laptop to write up a fantasy baseball article, I’m
going to discuss the ramifications of the Mitchell Report on possible future performance of active Major League Baseball
players. Until then, happy drafting and we’ll see you in a couple of weeks here at On the Shelf.
|
March 1, 2008
Caveat Emptor, Part I
|
Greetings, salutations, and welcome to the introductory piece of On the Shelf. We at fantasybaseball101.com strive to give
you the best fantasy baseball advice that money can buy, except it won’t cost you a dime! As On the Shelf would imply, this
column will focus on injuries throughout the baseball world and more importantly, how they will affect your fantasy baseball
rosters today, tomorrow, and beyond.
It is that glorious time of year; a time when the seasons are changing, the flowers are blooming, and the pitchers and catchers
have been working out for over two weeks. With Spring Training, come the inevitable questions in the fantasy baseball world:
When will Manny show up? Will the Rocket re-retire? Who is healthy and who isn’t?
Well, with Manny being Manny, who knows except Manny Ramirez (the answer was Thursday the 21st for everyone
wondering). As for the Rocket, we may only be able to ask IF he’ll be back; the Congressional hearings on the Mitchell Report
has morphed into the Spanish Inquisition, and with all the scrutiny that Roger Clemens has been under, nobody truly knows if
he’ll return, not even Clemens himself.
As for the final question – Who is healthy and who isn’t? – We at On the Shelf will give you the rundown before it’s your
fantasy draft day. We’ll break things down by league, and to be fair to everyone, we will start alphabetically - so all you NL-
only leaguers, you’ll have to wait till next week. Be sure to look for the Buyer Beware (BB) index: zero to four – the more a
player has, the more the fantasy buyer should beware. No number in parentheses, no worries. One = be a bit concerned, but
don’t lose sleep over drafting a player at or slightly above value. Two = be wary, but still buy at or slightly below value. Three =
is a bit trickier, I probably won’t be buying these guys, but if they slip far enough, I’ll take my chances. And finally, four
ambulances = stick a fork in them, stay away from them, don’t even think about drafting them!
So, without further ado, here is your AL pre-draft Caveat Emptor…
PS: We’re only going to include players who are projected to have fantasy significance in all-MLB fantasy leagues – I don’t
want to hear anything from anyone about their favorite reliever with 21.2 innings, 6.74 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP in 2007 who got
a bruise playing with his niece on Christmas day.
Baltimore
Aubrey Huff – 1B: Had hernia surgery in January – may miss the early days of Spring Training – (2)
Chris Ray and Danys Baez – RP’s: Both had Tommy John surgery in mid-2007 and both will more than likely miss all of 2008 –
(4)
Brian Roberts – 2B: Was rushed to the emergency room with what was rumored to be a kidney stone. The situation bears
monitoring, but not much fantasy concern: still a top five 2B – (0.5)
Boston
David Ortiz – 1B: Big Papi claims the “Doctor did a good job” on his arthroscopic surgery on his right knee in November last
year and reported to Spring Training at full strength – solid 2nd round draft choice - (1.5)
Dustin Pedroia – 2B: Pedroia had surgery to remove the hamate bone in his left hand and will report to Spring Training at full
strength – solid 2nd base buy.
Curt Schilling – P: The Red Sox have decided that Schilling’s right shoulder would respond better to aggressive rehabilitation
rather than surgery. Both options will place Schilling’s return to the Red Sox rotation post All-Star break, if at all – (4)
Chicago
Joe Crede – 3B: Crede underwent back surgery in mid-2007 and had trouble walking for one week following the procedure.
The first four days of Spring Training, Crede reported no pain, but admits to taking it easy in pre-season drills – (2)
Cleveland
Adam Miller – P: Cleveland’s top minor league pitcher has reported to camp has been battling ligament issues in one of his
pitching fingers as well as blister issues. Miller will remain a little behind with his spring workouts – (2.5)
Detroit
Gary Sheffield – OF: Jim Leyland will be babying Sheff’s surgically repaired right shoulder by trying to keep him swinging the
bat at DH rather than throwing in the outfield. The surgery to repair the torn labrum should allow fantasy owners to get their
monies worth with Sheffield, provided he stays healthy – (2)
Joel Zumaya – P: The Tigers setup man had surgery in late 2007 on his right shoulder joint. He had no rotator cuff damage,
but concerns about maintaining velocity will be tantamount. He is not expected to return until after the All-Star break – (3.5)
Jeremy Bonderman and Kenny Rogers – P’s: Both pitchers dealt with late season fatigue in their throwing arms and worked in
the offseason to condition and strengthen their arms. Still, concern will remain for 2008 – (2 to 3)
Kansas City – no major fantasy injury concerns
Los Angeles
Kelvim Escobar – P: Escobar is congenitally missing a muscle behind his right shoulder and has been experiencing pain and
inflammation in that area. No definitive timetable has been established for Escobar’s return, but he is optimistic for May. Again,
concerns will remain for 2008, but Escobar has fought through injuries in the past – (3)
Gary Matthews – OF: Matthews’s stats last September were simply awful - that can be attributed to the sprained left ankle and
irritated right knee he battled all last season. He has shown no ill effects following his off-season rehab – (1)
Reggie Willits – OF: Gall Bladder surgery isn’t fun on a good day, but don’t hesitate to pick up Reggie for those extra roto SB’
s everyone is looking for.
Minnesota
Joe Mauer – C: The Minnesota native opted not to have surgery on a hernia that plagued him in the second half of 2007.
Mauer claims he is healthy and should be considered a top five catcher in all formats – (0.5)
Francisco Liriano – P: The 2006 Twin phenom spent all of 2007 recovering from Tommy John surgery on his left elbow and is
considered ready to go for the 2008 season. Problem is, he is having difficulty obtaining a work visa from his home country,
the Dominican Republic. Once back in the States, feel free to pick up Liriano in the middle rounds on draft day, and he could
pay big dividends at season’s end – (0.5)
New York
Carl Pavano – P: Don’t count on the oft-injured Pavano to be a worthy fantasy contributor. Tommy John surgery, among other
medical issues has put Pavano’s hopeful return to the Bigs in July, but don’t think about drafting him – (4)
Hideki Matsui – OF: Matsui’s future at-bats in New York could be in question as he is projected to platoon in the DH spot with
Jason Giambi. If this is the case, Matsui’s surgically repaired knee won’t be the only thing keeping him from Joe Girardi’s
lineup card – (2) for health, (3.5) for overall at-bats.
Oakland
Rich Harden – P: A top 50 fantasy pitcher with top 25 stuff has been hindered by injuries his whole Major League career,
amassing only 20-plus starts once (2004). Over the past two seasons, Harden has only had 13 starts and 16 appearances –
(3.5)
Eric Chavez – 3B: Chavez is coming off a surgical trifecta: right shoulder, lower back, and left shoulder all in late 2007. The A’
s 3rd baseman has been a durable player, playing in no fewer than 125 games per season since 2000 with last season being
the exception. Taking Chavez’ resilience into account, savvy fantasy owners may be looking for a bounce back year from him,
though he may be more valuable for his glove than his bat – (3)
Justin Duchscherer – P: Duchscherer’s 2007 was cut short due to hip issues that required surgical intervention. He is ready to
go in 2008, but a move to the starting rotation will affect his fantasy value.
Seattle
Richie Sexson – 1B: Hampered by a left hamstring injury last year, Sexson has since healed, but unless he can find his long
ball swing again, he is only a late round draft choice at best – (3) for fantasy drafting, not health.
Erik Bedard – P: Considered by most to be the runner-up prize in the Johan Santana sweepstakes, Bedard finished the 2007
season on the DL due to a strained oblique muscle, but has been cleared to go for the M’s.
Tampa Bay
Rocco Baldelli – OF: Sore hamstrings kept Baldelli sidelined most of 2007. He alleges they are healed up, but won’t know for
sure until Spring Training is done. He could be worth a late round flyer that could pay huge dividends – (3)
Carl Crawford – OF: Crawford claims to be in the best shape of his career coming off a stellar 2007 season, even though
fatigue from Tropicana’s turf slowed him in 2007. A top five outfielder and a surefire late first, early second round fantasy pick.
Scott Kazmir – P: An MRI done on Kazmir’s pitching elbow showed no structural damage. He will be shelved for two weeks at
least with what is being called an elbow strain – not encouraging for the D-Ray’s ace, but it could have been much worse –
(1.5)
Texas
Milton Bradley – OF: Bradley is looking forward to Opening Day, but not in the Ranger outfield, rather in the DH spot. He had
ACL surgery in September 2007 and is recovering “ahead of pace”. A late round spot for Bradley would be a sufficient fantasy
draft expectation – (2.5)
Toronto
B.J. Ryan – P: Ryan will be looking to reclaim his closer spot from Jeremy Accardo anywhere from late April to early June after
recovering from Tommy John surgery on his left elbow. Stash him on the DL for some help in your fantasy pen – (2)
Vernon Wells – OF: Wells claims he is “close to 100 percent” after reporting to Spring Training with the Jays following off-
season shoulder surgery. He is, self-admittedly, not sure how things will feel when he steps into the box, so this will be cause
for concern for fantasy owners – (2.5)
Lyle Overbay – 1B: Overbay is recovering from a broken hand suffered from a HBP in June of last year. Two surgeries later,
he is still not fully participating in either fielding or hitting drills, but will still be worth a late round pick on draft day – (2.5)
There you have it folks, Caveat Emptor, part I. Next week, we’ll rundown the injury report for the Senior Circuit. Until then, I
have to shovel myself out of my house….
|
|
|
|
|
|
© Fantasy Baseball 101. All Rights Reserved.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
