The On Deck Circle
Fact or Fiction, Part II
By: Brian Goldberg
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Last week we looked at players who had career years as well as players who were having downward trends in their
numbers. We looked at their fantasy baseball numbers over their career and made a decision whether they deserved a
spot on our roster. It is now two weeks until opening day and you may already have your roster and the draft is an
afterthought. It is vital to make moves throughout the season to drop the non-producing players and replace them with
some production, so now let’s look at some talent that you may want to get your hands on during the season. If you have
yet to participate in your league’s draft, then you still have to make a decision on these players, so here we go again. Let’s
play some “Fact of Fiction.”
J.J. Hardy will be the player of the first half of 2007: Fiction
Hardy’s 2007 campaign was a case of Dr, Jekyl and Mr. Hide-the-power. In April and May he had 15 HRs, 46 RBIs and
batted .304. In the final 4 months of the season Hardy could only muster up 11 more dingers, 34 RBIs and batted .261 the
rest of the way. Don’t be fooled by his numbers last season, he is not the power hitter his numbers suggest. He can post
15 HRs, 70 RBIs and his career average is .263, so base your selection or a trade on those specific numbers. There are
many other players at SS that will have more consistency and history for your consideration. I place Hardy at about the
15th or 16th best at his position.
Ken Griffey Jr. is not a risk: Fact
A player approaching 600 career homeruns and a first ballot Hall of Famer is a sexy pick to have on your roster.
Unfortunately for you, you can’t use any of his previous 593 HRs and you receive no points for future Hall of Famers. His
2008 numbers are the only ones that we care about. Griffey is 38 years old and in the past 7 years has spent a great deal
of time on the DL. 2007 was the first time Griffey has played in more than 140 games since the 2000 season. However
Griffey is not a risk. Look for him to stay relatively injury free in 2008 as he will be moving from center field to right field and
thereby putting less stress on his body. You will most likely be able to obtain Griffey’s services for cheap or in a later round,
which will add some nice power at minimal cost. You may want to consider trading away Griffey around the All-star break as
he has had better first half numbers the last two years.
Oliver Perez will have another 15 Win season: Fact
The number 4 starting pitcher in the NY Mets rotation will no doubt benefit from their lineup and back end of the bullpen. I
believe that Perez will get his 15 Wins this year but be careful of his ERA and Whip. Don’t base your selection on his 2007
3.56 ERA and 1.31 Whip. Perez has a career ERA and Whip of 4.43 and 1.43 respectively and has been over a 5.35 ERA
and a 1.55 Whip three seasons in his career. If Perez can get over 30 starts in ’08, he can help you considerably in Wins
and Ks but he can hurt you in the ERA and Whip categories. If you already have some pitchers on your team that can
produce a bunch of Wins, I would leave Perez alone. On the other hand if you are in the situation where you can afford to
give up some ERA and Whip points late in the season and need some wins and strikeouts, Perez would be a great option.
Nick Markakis will regress in 2008: Fiction
Let me be honest with you fantasy baseball fans. At first I had a “Fact” after this question for Markakis. After some
research and a conversation with our own “Strategy Session” author Evan Rosen, I have eagerly changed my mind.
Markakis is a top prospect drafted in the first round (7th overall pick) in 2003 by Baltimore. Markakis has improved every
year he spent in the minor leagues and even won a HR Derby in a minor league All-Star game. His time in the majors has
been one of improvement topping out at 23 HR’s, 112 RBI’s, 97 runs swiping 18 bags and batting .300 in 2007. Markakis’
career has been one of continuous improvement and look for that trend to continue in 2008. Markakis is a true 5 category
player and would be a great addition to any fantasy roster.
Jason Bay will have a rebound year in 2008: Fiction
After enjoying two straight seasons with over 30 HRs, 100 RBIs and batting around .300, Bay had an off year with only 21
HRs, 84 RBIs and batting a career worst .247. Last season there was some Kobe Bryant like disputes between Bay and
Pirates management about the strength of the team. This can be a huge distraction and cause discomfort at the plate.
The last thing a batter needs is distraction while at the plate. Bay is only contracted to the end of the 2009 season and
could be traded this season, hence the distractions will continue. In an NL only league, Bay is a huge risk and his meager
numbers aren’t worth the risk. In a mixed league if you can obtain Bay at a bargain he could be a good addition if a trade
does induce a rebound, but that is the only situation I envision a resurgence in power, so buyer beware.
This concludes our “Fact or Fiction” analysis of some traps in fantasy baseball. What did we learn from this? Don’t judge
talent based on looking through a microscope. We need to back up and look at the big picture with every pick in the draft
or trade during the season. The more information we look at and the more history we use to get an idea of a player’s
worth, the better off your team will be in the long run. Try and look at specific players that had a spike in production and
see what their history suggests. It will be a great exercise and help your championship aspirations in the long run. Now it’s
time to make that walk from the on deck circle to the plate and knock one out of the park in your leagues draft. Go Get ‘Em!
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