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March 14, 2008
Fact or Fiction, Part II
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Last week we looked at players who had career years as well as players who were having downward trends in their numbers. We looked at their
fantasy baseball numbers over their career and made a decision whether they deserved a spot on our roster. It is now two weeks until opening day
and you may already have your roster and the draft is an afterthought. It is vital to make moves throughout the season to drop the non-producing
players and replace them with some production, so now let’s look at some talent that you may want to get your hands on during the season. If you
have yet to participate in your league’s draft, then you still have to make a decision on these players, so here we go again. Let’s play some “Fact of
Fiction.”
J.J. Hardy will be the player of the first half of 2007: Fiction
Hardy’s 2007 campaign was a case of Dr, Jekyl and Mr. Hide-the-power. In April and May he had 15 HRs, 46 RBIs and batted .304. In the final 4
months of the season Hardy could only muster up 11 more dingers, 34 RBIs and batted .261 the rest of the way. Don’t be fooled by his numbers
last season, he is not the power hitter his numbers suggest. He can post 15 HRs, 70 RBIs and his career average is .263, so base your selection or
a trade on those specific numbers. There are many other players at SS that will have more consistency and history for your consideration. I place
Hardy at about the 15th or 16th best at his position.
Ken Griffey Jr. is not a risk: Fact
A player approaching 600 career homeruns and a first ballot Hall of Famer is a sexy pick to have on your roster. Unfortunately for you, you can’t
use any of his previous 593 HRs and you receive no points for future Hall of Famers. His 2008 numbers are the only ones that we care about.
Griffey is 38 years old and in the past 7 years has spent a great deal of time on the DL. 2007 was the first time Griffey has played in more than 140
games since the 2000 season. However Griffey is not a risk. Look for him to stay relatively injury free in 2008 as he will be moving from center field
to right field and thereby putting less stress on his body. You will most likely be able to obtain Griffey’s services for cheap or in a later round, which
will add some nice power at minimal cost. You may want to consider trading away Griffey around the All-star break as he has had better first half
numbers the last two years.
Oliver Perez will have another 15 Win season: Fact
The number 4 starting pitcher in the NY Mets rotation will no doubt benefit from their lineup and back end of the bullpen. I believe that Perez will get
his 15 Wins this year but be careful of his ERA and Whip. Don’t base your selection on his 2007 3.56 ERA and 1.31 Whip. Perez has a career ERA
and Whip of 4.43 and 1.43 respectively and has been over a 5.35 ERA and a 1.55 Whip three seasons in his career. If Perez can get over 30 starts
in ’08, he can help you considerably in Wins and Ks but he can hurt you in the ERA and Whip categories. If you already have some pitchers on your
team that can produce a bunch of Wins, I would leave Perez alone. On the other hand if you are in the situation where you can afford to give up
some ERA and Whip points late in the season and need some wins and strikeouts, Perez would be a great option.
Nick Markakis will regress in 2008: Fiction
Let me be honest with you fantasy baseball fans. At first I had a “Fact” after this question for Markakis. After some research and a conversation
with our own “Strategy Session” author Evan Rosen, I have eagerly changed my mind. Markakis is a top prospect drafted in the first round (7th
overall pick) in 2003 by Baltimore. Markakis has improved every year he spent in the minor leagues and even won a HR Derby in a minor league All-
Star game. His time in the majors has been one of improvement topping out at 23 HR’s, 112 RBI’s, 97 runs swiping 18 bags and batting .300 in
2007. Markakis’ career has been one of continuous improvement and look for that trend to continue in 2008. Markakis is a true 5 category player
and would be a great addition to any fantasy roster.
Jason Bay will have a rebound year in 2008: Fiction
After enjoying two straight seasons with over 30 HRs, 100 RBIs and batting around .300, Bay had an off year with only 21 HRs, 84 RBIs and batting
a career worst .247. Last season there was some Kobe Bryant like disputes between Bay and Pirates management about the strength of the team.
This can be a huge distraction and cause discomfort at the plate. The last thing a batter needs is distraction while at the plate. Bay is only
contracted to the end of the 2009 season and could be traded this season, hence the distractions will continue. In an NL only league, Bay is a huge
risk and his meager numbers aren’t worth the risk. In a mixed league if you can obtain Bay at a bargain he could be a good addition if a trade does
induce a rebound, but that is the only situation I envision a resurgence in power, so buyer beware.
This concludes our “Fact or Fiction” analysis of some traps in fantasy baseball. What did we learn from this? Don’t judge talent based on looking
through a microscope. We need to back up and look at the big picture with every pick in the draft or trade during the season. The more information
we look at and the more history we use to get an idea of a player’s worth, the better off your team will be in the long run. Try and look at specific
players that had a spike in production and see what their history suggests. It will be a great exercise and help your championship aspirations in the
long run. Now it’s time to make that walk from the on deck circle to the plate and knock one out of the park in your leagues draft. Go Get ‘Em!
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March 7, 2008
Fact or Fiction, Part I
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Draft day is right around the corner and, if you’re like most fantasy baseball owners, you are in the midst of finalizing your draft strategy and
preparing your ranking of players. But what do you base these rankings on? Many roto managers mistakenly base their rankings exclusively off of
last year’s stats, notwithstanding the fact that a player may have had a career year. Much like the stock market, historic performance is no
guarantee of future results. For those players that have one single season of success, the question becomes one of fact or fiction: was their
performance an indicator of future potential, or was it as statistical aberration never to be seen again.
We are going to analyze a few players’ 2007 season and compare it to their entire career to make a decision whether the player will improve on their
2007 output or if their numbers look like they may slip. Importantly, we have to take into account why each player produced the numbers they did in ’
07. Possible factors explaining atypical performances include: injuries, aging, increase or decrease in playing time, protection in the lineup, and
motivation (e.g. whether the player’s contract is up at the end of the year).
Let’s get to it.
Fact of Fiction
Carlos Pena will have a repeat of his stellar 2007 season: Fiction
Now don’t get me wrong, Pena is likely to post solid fantasy numbers. But should he be valued based on his 2007 output of 46 HRs (19 above his
career high), 121 RBI’s (39 above his career high) and batted .282 (30 points above his career average)? Pena, a 1st round pick in 1998 and a top
prospect throughout his minor league career has been inconsistent in the majors and has had several demotions to the minors because of it. Based
on last year’s final numbers, Pena was in the top three at the 1B position, a traditional power slot on the roster. This year, many experts have ranked
Pena in the top 5 at his position, which may be true in AL only leagues. In mixed leagues you have the likes of Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder, David
Ortiz, Mark Teixeira, Albert Pujos, Carlos Delgado, Justin Morneau, Travis Hafner and Lance Berkman who have been consistent power producers. It
is critical to secure HR’s and RBI’s at the 1B position. Taking a risk on an unproven player such as Pena can cost you a league championship if he
does not approach his 2007 numbers. If none of the previously mentioned first baseman are available then Pena would be a nice pick up. I see Pena’
s 2008 numbers as 29 HR’s, 91 RBI’s, bat .268 and 83 runs. The key is to base your selection on a player’s entire history and not just one season.
Tom Glavine is past his prime: Fact
Glavine will be turning 42 this season and returning to the team that gave him his start, the Atlanta Braves. Glavine’s numbers have been on a
constant decline in the past three years going from a 3.60 ERA and a 1.29 Whip in 2004 and a .252 BAA, to an ERA of 4.45 and a Whip of 1.41 and
.281 BAA in 2007. A three year downward trend combined with a move from Shea Stadium to Turner Field does not bode well for Glavine’s 2008
season. Glavine has never been one to rack up the K’s and has not topped 150 whiffs since 2000, posting the third worst output in strikeouts in
2007 of only 89. Atlanta is not the team they used to be in the 90’s and have the Mets and the Phillies to contend with. The Braves have a solid
bullpen and they will need it because Glavine is unlikely to last more than six innings per game. Combine this with the 36 times this year the Braves
will have to face the loaded lineups of the Mets and Phillies, six to seven starts for Glavine. This accounts for 20% of his total starts. In mixed
leagues I would leave Glavine alone but in NL only leagues if he is available late, you could justify picking him up to use as trade bate, as Glavine
has typically been better pre-all star game.
Miguel Tejada will have a comeback season: Fact
Tejada has made the move down south to the Houston Astros. As they say, “Everything is bigger in Texas.” and Tejada’s numbers in 2008 will make
that statement ring true. By compiling only 18 HR’s, 81 RBI’s and 72 Runs in ‘07, Tejada easily had his worst showing since 1998, his second year in
the league. Tejada has no where to go but up and with the likes of Carlos Lee, Hunter Pence and Lance Berkman batting around him. Combined
with a short left field fence, I like Tejada to return to his previous glory as a hitter. I’m expecting 31 HR’s, 109 RBI’s, 96 runs and a .312 batting
average. Power is a rare commodity at shortstop and Tejada can is one of the few players that can supply your team with HR’s and RBI’s this
season. I would question taking Tejada if Jose Reyes, Jimmy Rollins or Hanley Ramirez are available, but he would be a nice pick up in a middle
round or on the cheap in any league format. It’s about making steals during the draft to fill out a solid roster. Tejada is one those players that should
be around after the premium players are gone and will no doubt help your fantasy numbers. Pick him up and you will be bragging to all your
competitors that you knew he was on the rise and had the fortitude to take a chance on him as you celebrate a league championship.
Dontrelle Willis continue his downward trend: Fiction
Coming off a career worst year in ERA, Whip and Wins, Willis will be making a move to the Detroit Tigers and their revitalized offense. Willis is at the
ripe young age of 26 and has shown signs of greatness early on in his career. Unfortunately the past two seasons have verged on mediocrity and
cost fantasy managers dearly. This season could very well be the turnaround. Tiger’s scout, Mike Russell, believes highly in Willis and expects him
to return to his former elite status. Russell points out that Willis fell behind in the count often which forced him to throw pitches in the zone that hitters
could then tee off on. The Marlins were also the worst fielding team in the majors last season which doesn’t account for the decline but is a factor.
The Tigers are a much better fielding team and have the offense to protect any pitching miscues. I believe that this change of scenery will help give
Dontrelle his confidence back and will help him relax, as he will not be the only superstar on the team and can pitch without overwhelming pressure.
Willis will also be the 4th or 5th starter in the Detroit rotation and will most likely not be matched up against other team’s aces. This can help his win
total rise from previous years. Willis will most likely be a cheap pick up in auction leagues and a late round pick in drafts. If you can secure him on
the cheap or late, he could be a nice steal for 2008.
Jim Edmonds will be rejuvenated in San Diego: Fiction
Edmonds is entering his 16th season in the majors at the age of 37. He has been on a downward decline in all statistical categories since posting
career numbers in 2004. His HR totals have dropped from 42 in 2004 to 12 in 2007. RBI’s have also declined from 111 in ’04 to 53 in ’07. Likewise
his average plummeted 49 points in three seasons to .252. An important factor is that he is averaging 113 games played the past two years and is
spending an increasing amount of time on the DL. These are not trends that fantasy managers look for to obtain a cheap talent. The final tell tale
sign that Edmonds should not be on your roster is that he has made the move to one of the most unfriendly hitter ballparks in the major leagues.
Don’t be distracted by superstar name and his highlight catches. I don’t know of many fantasy leagues that give you points for past All-Star games
and stunning defensive plays. Unless your league is based on those rules, I would leave Edmonds to your competitors or the free agency list.
Travis Hafner will rebound from his sub-par 2007 season: Fact
Although 24 homers, 100 RBI’s and scoring 80 times is a nice season as major leaguers go, it is nothing Hafner is proud of and was a
disappointment for many fantasy baseball owners. Over his last four seasons, Hafner has averaged 31 homeruns, 109 RBI’s, 92 runs and .296 his
last 4 full seasons. Signing a contract extension in ’07 should take away from any distractions it may have caused throughout the year. Hafner is
coming off a poor season and plays at a power position so many fantasy managers may not want to take a risk on him this season and have the
chance to lose precious numbers at a crucial position. Hafner is a risk worth taking this year and look for him to rebound to his career norms. A good
strategy is to get Hafner in the middle rounds (or for a bargain price in an auction) so that you can use an earlier pick or more money for other
talent. Hafner will perform as an elite fantasy player this year so this strategy could help strengthen your entire team.
As you can see, only taking in account the previous season can be a fatal mistake. We advise looking at the entire history of a player to identify
trends and red flags that may help us in our player valuations. Next week we will look at additional players that had atypical seasons, and others who
may be over the hill, such as Nick Markakis, JJ Hardy, Oliver Perez, Ken Griffey Jr. and few others that you may or may not want on your 2008 roster.
See you next week in The On Deck Circle.
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March 1, 2008
Prime Time Players
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It’s that time of the year again when Fantasy Baseball leagues come together for the annual ritual we all know and love as Draft Day. The hours
compile on the internet researching players, teams, stats, trends and even players’ contracts. Your ranking of players by statistical category,
position and age changes as much as the Yankees Manager in the 70’s and 80’s. You have contingency plan after contingency plan for scenarios if
certain players are either available or taken. We here at Fantasybaseball101 know and understand what it takes to prepare for a draft and are here
to provide you with expert advice. Although seasons are rarely won on draft day, they can easily be lost. To avoid a disastrous draft, it is important
to identify and obtain prime time players.
There are dozens of articles about the best sleepers or top minor league prospects, but lets not neglect the prime time, franchise players who can
anchor your team, which is paramount to your fantasy baseball success. Accordingly, this article tackles a couple different topics. First, how can we
identify when a player is about to enter his prime? After we know when a player is entering his prime, we can identify the top players who fall into this
category for ’08 and how they can lead your team to victory and bragging rights over the winter.
Identifying a player entering his prime
A player entering the prime of his career is typically in his middle to late 20’s in age. I recognize there are exceptions to every rule, such as players
like Barry Bonds becoming statistical giants in what should be the twilight of their career, or players like Frank Thomas having resurgences due to a
change of scenery. But we are focusing on safe bets and not risks. These players have had roughly 2,000 plate appearances to adjust to the rigors
and stresses of Major League competition. They have become comfortable with their own personal style and swing and have had a chance to face
most pitchers numerous times. Experience is also critical to the career of a pitcher. A pitcher’s pitch count is watched closely and managed with
precision as they enter the major leagues. It normally takes at least three full seasons in the majors to gain the experience they need to become
comfortable on the mound. It is hard to argue against the fact that a player’s mounting experience is the key to their continued success.
These players have consistently produced above average numbers for 3-4 seasons, have a history of not visiting the disabled list and there is no
reason to believe their numbers will have any significant decrease. As fantasy baseball managers, we drool over players that show consistency and
can live up to their position in the draft. These players have gone from rookies to team leaders and become the new fresh face of many franchises.
Prime time players at risk of regressing
There have been pretenders in the past. Players can have a break out season and thought to be on the verge of the baseball elite, but then never
attain the same level of greatness. Too many times a player such as Derrek Lee have had an enormous statistical season such as his 2005
outbreak. Lee averaging 26 HR’s, 82 RBI’s and a career .275 hitter, broke out for 46 HR’s 107 RBI’s and batted .335. Although Lee did have a 2006
wrist injury to battle back from, he returned to his career averages in 2007 season almost to the number. In 2006 Lee was drafted on his 2005
inflated numbers and there is mistaken value with these players are taken too early in the draft or at too high a price. Trust me with the Lee
scenario. This topic is a glimpse into the future of the “On Deck Circle” but Carlos Pena could very well fall into this category and his potential in
2008 will be covered in a later article, keep checking for it, it will save you some stress this season.
Prime Time Players for 2008
Now it is time to identify “Prime Time Players” for 2008 and see how they can put a grin on your face every time you turn on your computer or open
the sports page to see how all your players performed the night before. You will start watching their games and yelling phrases like “That’s my boy!”
or “That’s his 3rd stolen base today, baby!” These players are the real deal and should be at the top of your draft rankings.
Hanley Ramirez SS, Florida Marlins, Age: 24
Ramirez is heading into his third full season with the Florida Marlins in 2008 and has already vaulted to the cream of the crop of Fantasy Baseball.
Ramirez should be at the top of any draft with his ability to provide ammunition in 5 statistical categories. He has stolen 51 bags in each of his first
two seasons and had and nice surge in power in 2007 lifting his HR total from 17 in 2006 to 29 in 2007. He also increased his RBI’s from 59 to a very
respectable 81 in 2007. Most importantly for a speed demon like Ramirez is his average rising 40 points to .332 and his OBP jumping 33 points in
2007 to .386. He’s getting on base more often and has more chances to steal more bags. Although Ramirez most likely has maxed out in the power
category due to the loss of Miguel Cabrera and his lack of batting order protection, he will continue to be a threat to get on base with more walks
and stretch them into doubles. Expect Ramirez to bat .328 with 27 HR’s, 78 RBIs and 54 stolen bases. Ramirez is a solid top round pick in any
league format, and a top five consideration in NL-only leagues.
David Wright 3B, New York Mets, Age: 25
As one of the premier players in the majors, Wright is highly sought after in all Fantasy drafts. He is entering his 4th full season in the majors and the
prime of his career. He has been injury free and has increased his production in all five major statistical categories, setting career highs in all of
them in 2007 accept for RBI’s, missing the mark by 9. Over his first three full seasons he is averaging .314 with 27 HR’s, 24 SB’s 108 RBI’s and 102
Runs per year. He has also averaged 158 games and 587 AB’s per year which doesn’t have any signs of changing. With the overwhelming
protection in the Mets lineup with Carlos Beltran and Carlos Delgado, and speed on the bases in front of him in Jose Reyes, look for Wright to have
another consistent year by batting .322 with 31 HR’s, driving in 112 runs, scoring 104 runs and stealing 33 bases. There are very few third basemen
whom have the ability to contribute in all statistical categories, so like Ramirez, Wright is a solid top 5 pick in NL-only leagues and a first round
selection in mixed formats.
Miguel Cabrera 3B, Detroit Tigers, Age: 24
The 2008 campaign looks to be a promising one as he makes the moves from the Marlins to Mo-town in Detroit. Cabrera enters an already stunning
lineup and will prosper from the protection Magglio Ordonez, Gary Sheffield, Ivan Rodriguez, Curtis Granderson and Carlos Guillen will provide.
Although he is not a threat on the base paths he can light up the scoreboard. Cabrera has consistently hit over .320 and over 30 HR’s while driving
in 100 plus runs in each of his first four full seasons. Moving to the hitter friendly Comerica Park should add another advantage to Cabrera’s already
impressive skill set. Look for him to be a Fantasy giant in 2008. A reasonable expectation is for him to hit .324 with a career best 37 HR’s, 118 runs
batted in and score 109 times. In an inside note, according to Jason Beck of Tiger.MLB.com, Cabrera has lost 15 pounds in the offseason and is in
great shape for the 2008 campaign. Cabrera should be a solid first round pick in any draft in 2008 and should be well worth the investment.
Justin Verlander SP, Detroit Tigers, Age: 25
Verlander, like Miguel Cabrera, will benefit from the offseason acquisitions the Tigers management has made. Verlander is entering his 3rd full
season as a major league starting pitcher and has quickly become the ace of the staff. He has also become the ace of many fantasy baseball staffs
and will continue to prove his worth to any team lucky enough to secure his services. Chalking up 35 wins and putting up an ERA of .365 and a whip
of 1.28 in his first two seasons, Verlander seems ready to enter his prime. By striking out 183 in 2007 he increased his total by 59 K’s in 2006.
Hitters hit a career low .233 against him last season and expect that to continue. With the shot in the arm the Tigers have added to their offense,
look for Verlander to flirt with 20 wins in 2008, and strike out 189, while posting an ERA 3.52 and a Whip of 1.24. Verlander should be one of the top
four pitchers to be selected in 2008. This seems a little strong with pitchers such as C.C. Sabathia, Jake Peavy, Johan Santana, Brandon Webb,
Josh Beckett, Aaron Harang and John Lackey out there. With the explosive offense behind him helping him rack of the wins and a great strikeout
total, Verlander should be considered with the elite of the Majors.
Johan Santana SP, New York Mets, Age: 28
Here he is the cream of the crop as far as starting pitchers go in the major leagues. With the move from Minnesota to New York and their “Murderer’
s Row” like lineup, Santana is primed to have a career year. Shea Stadium is a notorious pitcher’s ballpark leading fantasy baseball fans to salivate
at Santana’s anticipated 2008 performance. Experts universally expect Santana to improve on his below average 2007 performance. Facing batters
that have yet to see his devastating fastball and knee buckling change-up will only help his numbers in 2008. I predict Santana will have 19-21 wins,
while striking out 242 and posting a .262 ERA and a Whip of 0.99, a valuable luxury for any Fantasy Baseball participant. Santana is arguably the
number one pitcher in the majors and should be the first pitcher selected in any format.
Francisco Rodriguez RP, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, Age: 26
One of the most difficult decisions to make as the draft proceeds is what closer to pick up. Of the 30 Major League clubs less than half have a stand
out closer that barring injury will finish the season as the closer. Rodriguez is young, energetic, injury free and on a contending team that can post
over 90 wins. Converting 132 Saves of 154 in his three full years as the Angels closer, Rodriguez also averages 100 strikeouts a year, which is nice
to have in a relief pitcher in a 5x5 league. His ERA and Whip were historically higher than his average so look for him to improve in those two
categories. Rodriguez should easily secure 42 saves in 2008 and rack up over 90 K’s. His ERA and Whip should improve from 2007 to 1.92 and
1.11 respectively. Rodriguez is a top three closer and will be a great asset to any team.
Matt Holliday OF, Colorado Rockies, Age: 28
The runner up for the 2007 National League MVP is no doubt in the prime of his career. In his four years in the majors, Holliday has improved in
every offensive statistical category year after year. Batting in the famously hitter friendly ballpark of Coors Field helps to bolster any batters numbers
who is fortunate enough to call Colorado home. Although Holliday could be maxed out in the offensive categories by posting career highs in Avg. (.
340), HR’s (36), RBI’s (137) and Runs (120), a significant drop off is highly unlikely in 2008. Holliday is not a big threat to steal bases, but can still be
counted on for 10-12 thefts a year. Look for Holliday to hit .334, with a career best 39 HR’s, drive in 128, score 111 runs and steal 12 bags. Holliday
is a top five pick in NL only leagues and a solid first round pick in Mixed Leagues. If Holliday is available, pick him up -- you will not regret his name
on your fantasy roster.
Any of these players would be a great building block to construct a Fantasy Baseball team on. They are reliable and can be expected to post
enormous numbers. With youth and experience on their side, and an injury- free history, it is reasonable to expect that they have many more years
of fantasy greatness in the future. They are all entering the prime of their careers and if you can grab two or more of them you will no doubt enjoy
the prime of your Fantasy Baseball career.
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