GUEST ARTICLE - Ben Distler
“Is this the real life? Is this just fantasy?” – Queen
By: Ben Distler
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I don’t know if Freddie Mercury was singing about rotisserie baseball or not, but either way, he posed some questions that
you ought to be thinking about when you draft your team. Confusing great real life players with great fantasy players is a
mistake made far too often by managers, and often, made by the ones who are on the outside looking in during the
playoffs. For example, Ozzie Smith’s magnificent glove carried him all the way to the Hall of Fame. He wouldn’t be drafted
by any sane fantasy baseball manager. The last thing you want to be is the manager who is “paying for the name,” which is
when you grab a well known player over someone who is almost exactly as productive but can be had at a much lower
cost. In real life, the well known player may be much better, but that is of no concern to us. So, instead of getting
production for your team, you’re left holding your 8 year old nephew’s favorite player. While little Timmy might be
impressed, let’s try some head to head comparisons to see you might be in danger of overpaying for.
(ADP = Average Draft Position, stats from the 2007 season)
Derek Jeter (ADP 28.6) vs. Orlando Cabrera (ADP 118.2)
R HR RBI SB AVG
Jeter 102 12 73 15 .322
Cabrera 101 8 86 20 .301
Even if you are a devout Red Sox fan, you have to respect Derek Jeter. His little scoop and flip during the playoffs
against Oakland was a classic moment of the game. He has more Gatorade commercials and video game endorsements
than all other players combined. He dated Mariah Carey and Vanessa Minnillo. Orlando is not so lucky. I imagine he
spends a lot of his time trying to convince other big leaguers that he is Miguel’s brother.
That being said, Jeter is not 100 ADP spots better than Cabrera. The only category that Jeter has a significant
advantage in would be batting average. Jeter’s slight advantage in home runs is wiped out by Cabrera’s advantage in RBI,
and the runs are about as close as they can be. Come to think of it, despite batting second in an offense that scored 968
runs, Jeter only scored 102 runs? Perhaps it has something to do with his dwindling walk totals, which have dropped from
77 to 56 over the course of the last three years. This is supposed to be worth a top 30 pick? You may be revered in New
York, Jeter, but when it come to my fantasy team, grab some big league chew and ride the pine.
Derrek Lee (ADP 37.6) vs. Adrian Gonzalez (ADP 90.6)
R HR RBI SB AVG
Lee 91 22 82 6 .317
Gonzal 101 30 100 0 .282
Lee did have an amazing, off the charts, dominant fantasy season in 2005. It also just happened to be the only
season he’s ever had 100 RBI or runs, more than 32 home runs. While the next two years have supposedly been plagued
by injuries, it is time to start thinking that maybe, just maybe, he’s a slightly above average player who had one crazy
season. I certainly don’t want to be the one to pay for his 2005 season.
When I look at Gonzalez though, I see a star on the rise, much like San Diego’s own Ron Burgandy. I see a guy hitting
30 home runs in a notoriously large ball park, which is kind of a big deal. Most importantly, I see you can stay classy and
get him with the 90th overall pick, instead of wasting a top 40 pick on a marginal producer Lee. This is a choice even Brick
Tamland should be able to make. Gonzalez will make your fantasy team smell of rich mahogany.
Pierre, Juan (ADP 60.2) vs. Shane Victorino (ADP 105.2)
R HR RBI SB AVG
Pierre 96 0 41 64 .293
Victorino 78 12 46 37 .281
If there was ever a case for advocating the use of steroids, it would be Juan Pierre. His big goose egg for 2007 brings
his career home run total to twelve.in 4778 at bats. Twelve. Yes, the very same amount Victorino hit in a mere 456 at bats
in 2007. When powerful guys like Barry Bonds take steroids, I find it extremely offensive to the game of baseball. But
seriously Juan, if you want to try some winstrol, deca durabolin, or HGH, I feel everyone would turn a blind eye to it. It’s a
sad state of affairs when the next home run you hit will be the first one since September 18th, 2006.
Pierre’s big selling point was always steals, but he was always overvalued because of it. He was never a consistent
above average contributor in any other category, including runs and batting average. Victorino, who will begin the season
as the starting center fielder, will contribute across the board. Keep in mind, he had less than 500 at bats last season. I
expect his numbers to be more along the lines of 110 runs, 17 home runs, 65 RBI, 45 steals and a .290 batting average.
Oh and I did I mention Pierre is on the outs with the new coaching staff in LA, and at best looks to be a part time starter?
That’s not the kind of news I want from a 60th overall pick. Maybe Pierre should contact Jose Canseco…
Oliver Perez (ADP 145.2) vs Jeremy Bonderman (ADP 136.0)
W SV K ERA WHIP
Perez 15 0 174 3.56 1.31
Bonderma 11 0 145 5.01 1.38
“Born to be Wild” should be Perez’s theme song. While his 2007 total of 79 walks is in higher range for pitchers, it is
overcome by his great strikeout totals of nearly one per inning. His WHIP is completely yawn inducing. To be sure, Perez
has had some tough times, and really only two above average seasons under his belt – 2004 and 2007. All the others
have been marred by injuries both unavoidable and self inflicted. I’m sure that cart in the dugout got what it was coming to
it, even if it was at the expense of his broken toe. Plus, c’mon, his name is Oliver. Wasn’t that the annoying little cousin on
the Brady Bunch?
Bonderman though, doesn’t even share his name with a failed sitcom character. At one time, he was a much hyped
prospect, but he doesn’t have that any more either. What he does have though is a terrible ERA, less wins, less strikeouts,
and pitches in the AL in what could be the toughest division in baseball. In fact, he has never posted an ERA below 4.00.
Ever. How in the world is he being picked this high? While, as you can tell, I am not particularly high on Perez, I’ll take his
upside any day over the perpetually mediocre Bonderman.
Wang, Chien-Ming (ADP 137.8) vs Chad Billingsley (ADP 147.6)
W SV K ERA WHIP
Wang 19 0 104 3.70 1.29
Billingsley 12 0 141 3.31 1.33
Chien-Ming is an absolute gamer. There isn’t a pitching staff in the majors who wouldn’t take him as at least a third
starter. His sinker can be dominating and flummox the best hitters in the game. He is an important part of the Yankee’s
organization, and will be for years to come. He is a consummate team player. He will help them win plenty of games
throughout his career, and deserves every bit of attention he’d get in the New York newspapers.
His fantasy numbers are terrible. He averages just about half a strikeout per inning, which in a league with an innings
limit is a dead weight. Granted, he gets hitters out on ground balls, but there is no “ground balls induced” stat in any
fantasy game I’ve ever played. The 19 wins are great, but wins are also the most volatile stat in all of fantasy baseball. In
the age of specialized bullpens, starters get less wins than ever, and can run the gambit from 12 wins to 20 wins with all the
same performance stats. Billingsley is an up and coming ace, and while he doesn’t have the recognition factor of Wang, he
has a much healthier strikeout per inning rate, a better ERA, and his WHIP will only get lower as he grows into maturity. It
seems when it come to this comparison, Wang comes up a little bit short.
As we can see, just because a player is more well known or even in some cases better in real life, this does not mean
you should consider drafting them where the conventional wisdom puts them. Leave that task to the last place finisher It
isn’t always who you get. A lot of times it is more important on where you get them. So when making a pick in your draft,
flip you iPod to some Bohemian Rhapsody and listen to those first two lines. You might find yourself changing that pick.
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A side note to our readers: We were introduced to talented writer Ben when he contacted us after discovering the site for
the first time. While we may eventually reach a limit in the number of columnists that we can feature here at
Fantasybaseball101.com, we encourage interested participants to contact us by going here.
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