Fantasy Baseball: MLBs Greatest Supplement
February 27, 2010
At the end of The Great Gatsby, F. Scott Fitzgerald evoked the imagery of the untouched Long Island forest, and the great New World beyond, that greeted each Dutch sailor who, “for a transitory enchanted moment…must have held his breath in the presence of this continent, compelled into an aesthetic contemplation he neither understood nor desired, face to face for the last time in history with something commensurate to his capacity for wonder.” In one masterful paragraph, Fitzgerald rewinds the passage of time, from the Roaring Twenties to the infancy of the Americas; from the shadowy and small residential evening to a land vast, bright and wondrous; from Gatsby’s death to New World’s birth. However, Fitzgerald was wrong in one respect, as man’s capacity for wonder finds its equal each Spring, when he rests his eyes, for the first time, on brilliant infield greens. I felt this wonder the first time I went to Camden Yards and Fenway Park. I saw the wonder in the eyes of my son as he crossed the concourse threshold for the first time and gasped at the site of a major league baseball field.
It is cliché to link the start of a baseball season with the Spring season, as trees, flowers, and championship dreams bloom anew. It is also wrong. The hopes of baseball players and fans rely, not on the restorative power of the warm Arizona sun or refreshing South Florida breeze, but on the ability of their home market to generate money and the willingness of their team owners to spend it. Without a salary cap to reign in large market teams, and without a salary floor to boost their low market brethren, the start of the baseball season, once the abode of the dreamer, now houses the realist. The dreamer has left, in pursuit of a memory, longing for the past. The realist turns his eyes towards the outfield grass, where he finds his former small market hero, almost unrecognizable, in his new pinstriped uniform.
I have heard many arguments that the lack of a salary cap in baseball does not prevent parity. Everyone loves to point out how the Yankees went nearly a decade without a title, during which time the Rockies, Rays, Tigers and Marlins made the Series (and the Marlins won). That nine championship free years qualifies as a drought is proof of, not against, the existence of a great imbalance. The Cleveland Indians are in the midst of a drought. The Yankees merely had the equivalent of an 0-4 night, where all four outs were hard hit line drives, snared off the shoestrings of sliding outfielders.
If the Tampa Rays can emerge from the AL East and make the World Series, then every team has a chance. But not all chances are equal. For the New York Yankees, that chance is like the flip of a coin. It may come up tails nine times in a row, but eventually it will come up heads. For the Brewers, Royals and Pirates, I think of Jim Carrey’s “so you’re saying there’s a chance” line from Dumb and Dumber.
Another common argument is that the Yankees won championships because they developed home grown talent, like Jeter, Rivera, Posada, and Pettitte, and not because they spent big money on free agents. This argument fails for two reasons. One is that the Yankees did spend big money on free agents, and the other is that they could afford to keep their own. The first argument is self explanatory. During the worst economic crisis in nearly a century, the Yankees spent more on three free agents (Sabathia, Teixeira, Burnett) than many teams spend on an entire roster over an entire decade. The Yankees don’t outspend only the small market teams. In 2009, the Yankees’ total team salary more than doubled that of the large market L.A. Dodgers, who have had plenty of recent success developing home grown talent, yet have gone more than 20 years without a title.
The second reason is more subtle. The Yankees should get no more credit for developing Pettitte than the Baltimore Orioles should for drafting and developing Mike Mussina. Yet the Yankees have had the cash to re-sign Pettitte as his contract expired (other than when he retired Brett Favre style to follow ex-best buddy Roger Clemens to Houston), while the Orioles could not ante up for Moose (guess who did have enough money). The 2009 Yankees roster was littered with many players who were too expensive for their old or original teams (The Indians and Brewers could not afford Sabathia; same with Damon for the Royals, Burnett for Toronto, and Teixeira for Texas and Atlanta). Even when the Yankees trade away a young player entering his prime (Soriano), they get an even more expensive player in return (A-Rod).
The imbalance created by the lack of a salary cap and floor have not done injury to the sport itself. Baseball is still the game that has inspired poets and writers, and still tops the list of all things American. However, interest among new or casual fans has dwindled. This great game is like a wonderful toy that the large bully (Yankees) won’t share with the smaller kids, who are lucky to play every once in a while. The toy is still great, but the interest declines over time. Over the last 15 years, football has claimed the top spot in overall national popularity, leaving baseball to ponder its newfound status as the national past-its-time.
This brings me to fantasy baseball. Fantasy baseball does right what Major League Baseball does wrong. All teams have an equal chance to win. Every team in an auction league starts with the same amount of money with which to buy players; every team in a draft league has the same number of picks per round and the same number of overall picks. Advantage is gained through preparation, smart drafting, skillful trading, shrewd keeper selections, and, well, dumb luck. Advantage cannot be gained by paying more money, and the unprepared, poor drafter and poor trader will not be able to buy their way to an undeserved championship.
Fantasy baseball can also create a rooting interest as the season progresses. A die-hard fan will always root for his small-market team, but the casual fan who is fed up with decades of losing has two choices: jump on the bandwagon of an out-of-town team (and face well deserved ridicule from your peers) or root for the players on your fantasy team, regardless of which baseball team they play for (slowly gaining social acceptance). I am a lifelong Orioles fan and, as a native Washingtonian, have become a Nationals fan. I am hopeful that the young players on each of these teams develop (hopefully all at once) in the next few years. Unfortunately, that will create the small market catch-22: the better the players on my favorite teams become, the greater the chance they will compete for a championship, but also the greater the chance the top players will end up with large market teams in free agency.
I do not have that problem in fantasy baseball. Only I can keep a player from my roster; when that player is too expensive for me to keep, he is likely too expensive for anyone to keep; and no one team can outbid everyone else on top available players in an auction. If I bought Sabathia, Burnett and Teixeira in my auction last year, I certainly would not have had enough money for A-Rod, Rivera, Jeter, Damon, Posada, Cano, and Pettitte.
Of course fantasy baseball is not a replacement for real baseball. Rather, it’s a supplement (poor choice of words…it’s an enhancement; well, never mind) to the real thing. The accumulation of statistics that makes baseball great is also the lifeblood of fantasy baseball. The marathon pace of the baseball season works perfectly for the fantasy baseball season. Preparation for your draft or auction will help you identify every player who takes the field or comes to bat on your trips to the stadium (whether you pull out your Blackberry at the stadium to check your players’ stats from other games is up to you; consult your local fantasy expert regarding best practices in such a situation).
Playing fantasy baseball will not give you the same feeling of attending your first game at Wrigley, and you won’t make a pilgrimage to the cornfields of Iowa to remember what is was like when you were a child and took Ruben Sierra in the first round of your first draft (If I build a baseball field in my backyard, I’d better not see roto pioneer Daniel Okrent stepping out of my corn). However, playing fantasy baseball may help draw the casual fan closer to the game, and rekindle the interest of the disillusioned small market devotee. Like the Dude’s rug, fantasy baseball really ties MLBs room together.
h2h Corner ~ Keep, Trade or Drop: Jonathan Sanchez, Jorge de la Rosa, John Danks?
February 27, 2010
Jonathan Sanchez has put together periods of brilliance in his short four season career. In March/April of 2008, Sanchez threw 33.2 IPs, posted a 3.48 ERA and 1.28 WHIP, while striking out 40 batters. In 40.2 IPs in June 2008, he posted a 3.10 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP, while striking out 39 batters. Of course, his 2008 wasn’t altogether useful, as he ended up with a 5.01 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. Still, he was a tad unlucky (.323 BAbip). Still, those brief pockets of success shouldn’t make his 2009 all that astounding (4.24 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 177 Ks). However, his 2009 was blessed with a .278 BAbip. These two BAbips suggest we can average out 2008 and 2009 and crystal ball Sanchez’s 2010. Magic eight ball says: 4.50 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 167 Ks). There is a lot to like in his ability to K a batter per inning. Read more
h2h Corner ~ Keep, Trade or Drop: Ben Zobrist, Asdrubal Cabrera, Aaron Hill?
February 26, 2010
As noted previously, Ben Zobrist is all over the KTDs and my rankings. Part of me thinks it is because of his awesome (nick)name. Another part of me thinks it is because I went to pick him up in my deep 20-team expert league, but instead went with Micah Hoffpauir. That was a poor decision. Read more
h2h Corner ~ The David Wooderson All-Stars (II)
February 25, 2010
Regardless of your league’s format, knowing the hot up-and-coming prospects is super important to fantasy success. In keeper leagues, these players, often taken in the later rounds, typically form the foundation of fantasy dynasties. In single season leagues, smartly grabbing young players in the draft or shortly after their call-up is essential to success. Any way you look at it, it pays to know something about these general unknowns while they are still unknown. If you wait too long, you’ll be watching as they contribute meaningfully to your buddy’s team as he wins the league. Read more
h2h Corner ~ Keep, Trade or Drop: Curtis Granderson, Jay Bruce, Shane Victorino?
February 24, 2010
I must admit that I picked Curtis Granderson as a KTD to help me think through what to do with him in my keeper league. I have him as a 12th rounder next year and had been wavering whether he was worth that pick or not. I mean he posted a .249 AVE and .327 OBP in 2009 and was much worse down the stretch (.223/.284 AVE/OBP in September/October and .248/.319 AVE/OBP in August). Granderson does have a career .321 BAbip, yet it was .275 in 2009. Meanwhile, in 2008, it was .316 and, in 2007, it was .360. So there is a good chance that will improve which will bring his average to a more acceptable level. That said, even if his ratios remained at his abysmal 2009 level, he’d score 100 runs easy, top 30 HRs and knock in 70+. There is a ton to like about his move to New York, which has been favorable to left-handed hitters. He might not steal as much, but his power and runs will increase. This makes the soon-to-be 29-year-old a pretty valuable 2010 player. Read more
h2h Corner ~ The David Wooderson All-Stars (I)
February 23, 2010
Regardless of your league’s format, knowing the hot up-and-coming prospects is super important to fantasy success. In keeper leagues, these players, often taken in the later rounds, typically form the foundation of fantasy dynasties. In single season leagues, smartly grabbing young players in the draft or shortly after their call-up is essential to success. Anyway you look at it, it pays to know something about these general unknowns while they are still unknown. If you wait too long, you’ll be watching as they contribute meaningfully to your buddy’s team as he wins the league. Read more
h2h Corner ~ Keep, Trade or Drop: Wade Davis, Brandon Morrow, Homer Bailey?
February 22, 2010
Brandon Morrow just ended up on the wrong side of a divisional swap. Trading the West for the East won’t help his ratios. Still, there is a lot of good in Morrow: he wont be 26 until July; he has a career 9.3 K/9 rate in the majors; and he has tasted major league success, albeit as a reliever. However, if you look at his statistics as a starter and reliever they are eerily similar: 4.42 ERA, 1.47 WHIP as a starter, 3.65 ERA and 1.46 WHIP as a reliever. Basically, in his beast season (2008), his BAbip was .207. In 2007 it was .321 and, in 2009, it was .287. Unsurprisingly, Morrow’s career has been a yo-yo, his stats have hit highs and lows, he’s been a reliever, then a starter, then a reliever. One would hope he gets a chance to prepare and be a starter for a full season. Still, at the moment, Morrow is nothing more than a cheap lottery chip. Read more
h2h Corner ~ Keep, Trade or Drop: Andre Ethier, Hunter Pence, Ben Zobrist?
February 20, 2010
Ben Zobrist is quite the conundrum for fantasy owners. He seems to qualify everywhere, he hit 27 HRs last year, stole 17 bases, batted .297 and posted a .405 OBP. What’s more, that HR total wasn’t completely flukey, as he smacked 12 dingers in only 62 games in 2008, so there was a chance he could hit more given the opportunity. Of course, he only managed to hit 23 HRs and steal 20 bases in 1,335 minor league ABs – so there was a ton of reasons to doubt him. Zobrist will be 29 in May, so he is in the sweet spot of his prime. I think you can bank on decent AVEs and OBPs, 20 or so HRs and 15 SBs for the next couple of years. Read more
h2h Corner ~ 2010 Pitcher Rankings
February 19, 2010
Chicks dig the long ball, and so do I. That’s just one of the many reasons I prefer evaluating hitters to pitchers. From a ranking perspective, hitters are more predictable and stable from year to year. In addition, they tend not to be as infected by the injury bug. Because of this, I approach pitchers a tad different from other fantasy writers when creating my ranks for h2h leagues. Read more
h2h Corner ~ 2010 Outfielder Rankings
February 18, 2010
Outside of Jacoby Ellsbury, there aren’t too many surprises in my top 10 outfielders. That said, I think Justin Upton deserves special recognition, particularly since he’s so young (he’ll turn 23 in August). In just 138 games last year, Upton hit 26 HRs, scored 84 runs, knocked in 86 and stole 20 bases. Read more
Did You Know…?
Todd Helton had the second highest batting average (.325) and third highest on base percentage (.416) of first basemen?
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