Breaking Down the Blockbuster

December 19, 2009

As a lifelong Phillies fan, I’m ecstatic to have the best pitcher in baseball anchoring our staff, but also selfishly would have loved to have had a “1-A” as well, if only for a year. But that wasn’t to be, and now Cliff Lee is a Mariner and Roy Halladay is a Phillie. But does this Earth-shattering transaction have any reverberations on your fantasy baseball team? The simple answer: it depends.

Let’s break it down by player:

Roy Halladay (2009 stats: 17 W, 2.79 ERA, 208 K, 1.13 WHIP): Halladay quite simply is the best hurler in the game right now. He’s a game-changing pitcher, and if you land him in your draft, it’s akin to grabbing Roger Clemens or Randy Johnson in their primes – you’ve got a leg-up on the competition no matter who the other teams pick as their No. 1.

Halladay is going from a division in which he faced the powerful Yankees and Red Sox regularly to a potent NL East, but he’s joining the best offensive team in the division. The Braves, Marlins and Mets will pose a challenge, but nothing on the level of the Yankees, Sox and Rays. And the Orioles were better than the Nationals (.268 BA vs. .258, scored 31 more runs). So Doc Halladay is moving to a less offensive division, and the biggest threat are his teammates. Throw in the loss of a designated hitter, and Halladay is poised for a dominant season.

Stat-wise, expecting 20 wins, a sub-2.70 ERA, 200+ strikeouts and a WHIP hovering around 1.10 is not unrealistic.

If you’re in an NL-only league, this is a difference-making draft pick. He’s probably the second-biggest impact player (behind only Albert Pujols). He should go no lower than No. 5 in the draft (maybe Tim Lincecum and Hanley Ramirez sneak in ahead of him). Chris Carpenter and Jair Jurrjens are incredible pitchers, but they don’t rack up the K’s like Halladay, Lincecum and Adam Wainwright. However, if you play in a mixed league, the overall impact of this trade is minimal. Halladay was a top-10 draft pick before the trade and will continue to be in 2010.

Cliff Lee (2009 stats: 14 W, 3.22 ERA, 181 K, 1.24 WHIP): Lee was nothing short of brilliant during his short tenure with the Fightin’ Phils. You absolutely can’t discount his performance in the playoffs (4 wins, 1.56 ERA, 33 strikeouts, 0.82 WHIP in 40.1 innings). It’s frightening to read that line as a Phillies fan and realize he’s not on the team next year.

By comparison, Lee joins the AL West, where his new team is the one on the move, adding Chone Figgins (and taking him away from division rival Angels) and Milton Bradley. The Mariners will be better next year, but Lee is not joining the best team in the division. Despite losing John Lackey, the Angels did win 97 games last year and are poised for another good season, and Texas is always dangerous.

2010 will be a test for Lee. Will he be dominant like his 2008 Cy Young season, or will he have a bump in the road after moving to his third team in half a season? After watching him for five months, I think he’s unflappable and will excel. He also has the motivation of this being his “walk” year, so I think he’s looking at something in the neighborhood of 18 wins, 3.10 ERA, 200 strikeouts, 1.20 WHIP.

If you’re in an AL-only league, grab him up while you can. He’s probably the fifth-best starter out there (behind CC Sabathia, teammate Felix Hernandez, Justin Verlander and Zach Grienke), depending on how you rank Jon Lester and Josh Beckett. In a mixed league, he should go in the top 20.

What about the other players exchanged? Are any of them winners or losers? Kyle Drabek could be in for an interesting ride depending on how long the Blue Jays’ rebuilding efforts last. If they are content to go with the flow, Drabek will have time to develop and could be in the rotation to start 2011. But if they decide to elevate talent, the son of Doug Drabek could be in the bigs facing the likes of Derek Jeter, A-Rod, David Ortiz and Evan Longoria this summer. If that happens, it’ll be a baptism by fire. Whether he wins out or loses depends on way too many factors to predict right now.

However, Michael Taylor is an easy pick as a winner. He wasn’t going to crack the Phillies starting lineup in 2010 with the All-Star trio of Raul Ibanez, Shane Victorino and Jayson Werth under contract, and he wasn’t even the clear-cut top outfield prospect in the franchise (think Dominic Brown). After being shipped from Toronto to Oakland in a secondary trade, Taylor could crack the A’s starting lineup in left field in 2010.

The dust has settled on this blockbuster, but until the first pitch is thrown, it’s all fun and speculation. Just get ready for a steady stream of Lee vs. Halladay side-by-side comparisons next year.