h2h Corner ~ Javy Vazquez to the Yanks…oh no.
December 22, 2009
Most of my readers can attest to the love I had for Javy Vazquez before the 2009 season. As his numbers indicate, my love was well rewarded. My guy-love had reached such magnitudes, in fact, that I was thinking of keeping him in the ninth round of my most important league – a league where I usually draft batters in at least nine of the first 10 rounds.
Unfortunately, Frank Wren has screwed me again. Somehow, someway, I now hate the Yankees and the Braves even more. I honestly didn’t think this was possible. Seriously though, Melky Cabrera? C’mon!
But enough of my rants, you want to know how this deal affects the fantasy values of those involved. From this perspective, there are two players you should be thinking about: Javy Vazquez and Melky Cabrera.
Javy Vazquez
At first blush, it would seem that Javy Vazquez’s fantasy value will plummet like 2009’s housing marketing. Moving from the NL to AL; moving from Atlanta to New York; moving from a decent pitcher’s park to a homerun haven; etc… I had just begun to do my pitcher rankings for next year and Vazquez was making a legitimate case to be a top 5 pitcher. That will no longer be the case. To illustrate:
Pitcher Yin: 1,664.1 IPs, 1,506 Ks, 4.02 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 110 ERA+, 8.1 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
Pitcher Yang: 852.2 IPs, 747 Ks, 4.52 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 102 ERA+, 8.1 K/9, 1.2 HR/9.
Yin = NL Javy Vazquez, Yang = AL Javy Vazquez. The similarity between those numbers is surprising (or not, given they are the same person). From these numbers, it is clear Vazquez has been better in the National League, but not demonstrably better. However, there are two caveats – his two worst seasons were his first two seasons when he played for the Montreal Expos (where his K/9 rate never exceeded 7.3). The only time that rate was much lower was in 2004 (6.8) – oddly enough, when he pitched for the Yankees and made his only All-star Game. If you take out Vazquez’ first two seasons, his NL-only line looks like: 2,163 IPs, 3.98 ERA, 2,001 Ks, 113 ERA+ 1.22 WHIP, 1.1 HR/9 and 8.3 K/9. Not much better than his total NL numbers, but, still better.
Throughout his career, Vazquez has been incredibly durable – his lowest inning total since 2000 was 198 (while pitching for the Yankees). Since 2004, he has averaged 196 Ks a season, with his lowest total being 150 in 2004, also for the Yankees.
Despite the near across the board drop in his overall numbers, there is nothing to suggest that Vazquez was terribly unlucky in 2004. In fact, his BAbip was .274. Though his overall BAbip is in line with his career norms, Vazquez’s 2004 season was an exercise in the ups and downs common for many major league pitchers. The first half of his season was excellent (explaining his All-Star selection): 3.56 ERA, 7.2 K/9, 1.15 WHIP. As good as his first half was, his second half was equally disastrous: 6.92 ERA, 6.2 K/9, 1.49 WHIP. Looking behind the numbers, however, the reason for the great disparity in his two halves is clear. In the first half, his BAbip was .253. When his BAbip corrected itself in the second half (.303), his success disappeared.
This has been a long rambling numbers-oriented analysis – and it doesn’t appear the numbers have provided much of a conclusion. So, here goes: Vazquez’ preseason fantasy value takes a sizeable dip because of this trade. When you are drafting pitchers, the fewer question marks the better. This trade introduces a number of new question marks that did not exist with Vazquez yesterday (but did exist with him in 2004 when the Yankees shipped him to Arizona after the season). Vazquez can pitch and he will strike batters out, but can he do it as consistently as he did last season as a Brave, without a pitcher in the line-up?
I’m saying no.
This doesn’t mean Vazquez is unownable or useless; it does mean that he probably won’t crack my top 20 pitchers and should be more of mid round selection. If you are a gambling man, roll the dice and snag him a few rounds before his ADP. Off the cuff, I see his ADP being around guys like Josh Johnson, Wandy Rodriguez, Matt Garza and Chad Billingsley. All things being equal, I’d take the upside/league of Johnson and Billingsley over Vazquez, but take Vazquez’ strikeouts over Garza and Wandy’s fragility.
Melky Cabrera
Cabrera goes from a homer-friendly outfield to a murky bigger outfield. He should, initially, get consistent playing time. Despite the trade, Cabrera is not completely locked into a starting job; be mindful of Jason Heyward. Still, it’s not like the Braves have tremendous outfielders as Matt Diaz is more of a platoon-able guy than a starter. The job, more likely than not, is Cabrera’s to lose.
Initially, I ranked Cabrera around outfielders like Chase Headley, Seth Smith, David DeJesus, and Marlon Byrd. In the AL, Cabrera has managed a .331 OBP, .385 SLG and .716 OPS. He has also managed to steal 44/58 bases (75 percent). This success should give him a longer leash in Atlanta. It is not out of the realm of possibility that Cabrera becomes a 12 HR, 20 SB player. There is a lot of value in that. Oddly enough, when you look at players historically who had similar statistics at this point in their career, Cabrera compares favorably to Johnny Damon and Jose Guillen.
Cabrera should be on people’s radars more than normal this year, as a potential top 18 round pick. Though if he doesn’t win a starting position, be prepared to cut bait early.
Breaking Down the Blockbuster
December 19, 2009
As a lifelong Phillies fan, I’m ecstatic to have the best pitcher in baseball anchoring our staff, but also selfishly would have loved to have had a “1-A” as well, if only for a year. But that wasn’t to be, and now Cliff Lee is a Mariner and Roy Halladay is a Phillie. But does this Earth-shattering transaction have any reverberations on your fantasy baseball team? The simple answer: it depends.
Let’s break it down by player:
Roy Halladay (2009 stats: 17 W, 2.79 ERA, 208 K, 1.13 WHIP): Halladay quite simply is the best hurler in the game right now. He’s a game-changing pitcher, and if you land him in your draft, it’s akin to grabbing Roger Clemens or Randy Johnson in their primes – you’ve got a leg-up on the competition no matter who the other teams pick as their No. 1.
Halladay is going from a division in which he faced the powerful Yankees and Red Sox regularly to a potent NL East, but he’s joining the best offensive team in the division. The Braves, Marlins and Mets will pose a challenge, but nothing on the level of the Yankees, Sox and Rays. And the Orioles were better than the Nationals (.268 BA vs. .258, scored 31 more runs). So Doc Halladay is moving to a less offensive division, and the biggest threat are his teammates. Throw in the loss of a designated hitter, and Halladay is poised for a dominant season.
Stat-wise, expecting 20 wins, a sub-2.70 ERA, 200+ strikeouts and a WHIP hovering around 1.10 is not unrealistic.
If you’re in an NL-only league, this is a difference-making draft pick. He’s probably the second-biggest impact player (behind only Albert Pujols). He should go no lower than No. 5 in the draft (maybe Tim Lincecum and Hanley Ramirez sneak in ahead of him). Chris Carpenter and Jair Jurrjens are incredible pitchers, but they don’t rack up the K’s like Halladay, Lincecum and Adam Wainwright. However, if you play in a mixed league, the overall impact of this trade is minimal. Halladay was a top-10 draft pick before the trade and will continue to be in 2010.
Cliff Lee (2009 stats: 14 W, 3.22 ERA, 181 K, 1.24 WHIP): Lee was nothing short of brilliant during his short tenure with the Fightin’ Phils. You absolutely can’t discount his performance in the playoffs (4 wins, 1.56 ERA, 33 strikeouts, 0.82 WHIP in 40.1 innings). It’s frightening to read that line as a Phillies fan and realize he’s not on the team next year.
By comparison, Lee joins the AL West, where his new team is the one on the move, adding Chone Figgins (and taking him away from division rival Angels) and Milton Bradley. The Mariners will be better next year, but Lee is not joining the best team in the division. Despite losing John Lackey, the Angels did win 97 games last year and are poised for another good season, and Texas is always dangerous.
2010 will be a test for Lee. Will he be dominant like his 2008 Cy Young season, or will he have a bump in the road after moving to his third team in half a season? After watching him for five months, I think he’s unflappable and will excel. He also has the motivation of this being his “walk” year, so I think he’s looking at something in the neighborhood of 18 wins, 3.10 ERA, 200 strikeouts, 1.20 WHIP.
If you’re in an AL-only league, grab him up while you can. He’s probably the fifth-best starter out there (behind CC Sabathia, teammate Felix Hernandez, Justin Verlander and Zach Grienke), depending on how you rank Jon Lester and Josh Beckett. In a mixed league, he should go in the top 20.
What about the other players exchanged? Are any of them winners or losers? Kyle Drabek could be in for an interesting ride depending on how long the Blue Jays’ rebuilding efforts last. If they are content to go with the flow, Drabek will have time to develop and could be in the rotation to start 2011. But if they decide to elevate talent, the son of Doug Drabek could be in the bigs facing the likes of Derek Jeter, A-Rod, David Ortiz and Evan Longoria this summer. If that happens, it’ll be a baptism by fire. Whether he wins out or loses depends on way too many factors to predict right now.
However, Michael Taylor is an easy pick as a winner. He wasn’t going to crack the Phillies starting lineup in 2010 with the All-Star trio of Raul Ibanez, Shane Victorino and Jayson Werth under contract, and he wasn’t even the clear-cut top outfield prospect in the franchise (think Dominic Brown). After being shipped from Toronto to Oakland in a secondary trade, Taylor could crack the A’s starting lineup in left field in 2010.
The dust has settled on this blockbuster, but until the first pitch is thrown, it’s all fun and speculation. Just get ready for a steady stream of Lee vs. Halladay side-by-side comparisons next year.
Curtis Granderson to the Yankees
December 8, 2009
I know, I know. Sure it’s Football, Basketball and Hockey season but I think it has been long enough without some baseball news. It is that time of the year, the snow is falling, people are trying to find “tickle me Elmos” and of course, the blockbuster trades from the winter meetings are happening.
The World Series Champion New York Yankees just got better by adding All-Star center fielder, Curtis Granderson (pending medical records), to their already impressive lineup with a three team trade involving the Detroit Tigers and Arizona Diamondbacks. The best part of the deal, the Yanks only lost one player from their active roster last season, Phil Coke. Of course, they also had to give up promising prospects in Austin Jackson and Ian Kennedy but, if you would have told me that it would only cost Coke for Granderson, I would sign up for that every time.
The once weakest spot on the team is now one of the strongest. Granderson offers amazing range and is another left handed bat in an extremely lefty-favorable ball park (aka the home run highway, not sure if it will catch on though). However, he does have his downfalls, he struggles against left handed pitching and he doesn’t steal bases, oh wait, yes he does. So, there really isn’t a downfall. Now onto the rest of the trade.
The Diamondbacks acquired Ian Kennedy and Edwin Jackson, who was traded for the second straight time during winter meetings. Looks like he is moving again, at least this time it is some place really warm, kinda like Tampa two years ago. Not exactly sure why the Diamondbacks needed to be included in this trade, maybe they felt left out like last year, whatever.
Now onto the Tigers who declared that they weren’t going to trade anyone during the offseason. Worked out well for them didn’t it. They got Austin Jackson, Phil Coke from the Yankees and Max Scherzer and Daniel Schlereth from Arizona. While the Tigers gave up Major League talent, they received a lot of potential talent and most of all, cheap potential talent. Time will tell if the trade was a success for all who participated or which teams got ripped off (cough Tigers cough).
Stay tuned since I will attempt to cover any other blockbuster trades.
By Bobby Holt
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Brandon Inge hit the fifth most HRs (27) among third basemen?
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