Farewell to 2009, Part II
October 20, 2009
And now, part II of our farewell column. With the LCS underway, and closers blowing saves left and right, time to finish the 50 things we learned from this season. No hyperbole here…but don’t miss the top sleepers and mock first round at the bottom.
Other than that, as always in no particular order:
1) A-Rod should be a top 5 pick next year. He missed over a month, still went 30/100, still stole 14 bases, hit .286 and exorcised his postseason demons in a big way. He’s not top 3, but anywhere after 4 is a good deal.
2) Don’t expect 44 more home runs from Mark Reynolds. He hit .341 on balls in play, and like BJ Upton’s .399 BABIP in 2007, that is not sustainable from a guy with subpar strikezone judgment. Let someone else pick him in the second round.
3) Ryan Braun is top 3. He’s gotten better every year, he has great protection in Prince Fielder, he hits for power (32 homers, 114 rbi) and average (.320), steals bases (2o), and scores runs (113). Just a stud.
4) Speaking of Prince Fielder, I’d make him the second 1B taken next year. Showing his 50 homer season was no fluke, he hit .299 with 46 hr, led the majors in rbi with 141 and scored 100 runs.
5) And while we’re discussing 1B, Ryan Howard should go next. His average should be closer to 270 than 250 and he is a lock for 45 home runs and at least 130 rbi.
6) And Mark Teixeira should be the fourth and final 1B taken in the first round. He led the AL in RBI, HR, scored 100 runs and hit .292. BUT – for those of you in head-to-head leagues, he’s not as valuable. He hit 3 home runs in April, 4 in June and only drove in 15 runs in July. He was outstanding in May and August, and good in September as well, so consider yourself warned.
7) It looks like Ian Kinsler’s average belongs somewhere closer to .260 than it does to .310, pushing him out of the first round. Yes, the 30/30 season is great, and the runs and rbi are nice too, but between the inconsistency, the injuries, and the average, I can’t recommend Kinsler higher than top 25 or so.
8) Let someone else think Marco Scutaro is going to score 100 runs again. In fact, let someone else think he’s going to equal any part of his career year again. He sets career marks in every single category in 2009 (a walk year, no less), and at the age of 34, that aint happening again. Plus, he loses his multiple position eligibility – he’s only a shortstop next year.
9) Carsten Charles (”CC” to those of us who know him well) Sabathia was worth his high draft spot this year, and will be again next year. Though he started slow, he went 11-2 after the All Star break (including 9-0 in August and September). In fact, the only difference between his halves this year was ERA – it was a run higher before the break. Batting Average Against, WHIP, Strikeouts all were strikingly similar. Expect greatness again.
10) Same goes for Justin Verlander. Boy he’s figured it out, hasn’t he? 19 wins, 3.45 ERA, whip under 1.2, and 269 strikeouts in 240 innings. Top 5 starter for my money.
11) As many predicted, Dan Haren collapsed down the stretch. His ERA and WHIP basically doubled after the Break, his BAA went way up and he went 5-5. If you draft him, trade him on July 1, come hell or high water. If you don’t draft him, don’t trade for him on July 1.
12) Unless David Wright remembers how to hit the ball over the outfield fence, he is a borderline second round pick, maybe even third. Even with the steals (27 of them), seven third basemen had a better year than Wright. Miggy Cabrera, Reynolds, Zimmerman, Longoria, Youk!, Sandoval, and A-Rod. For a guy picked 3rd or 4th overall in 2009, that’s pretty crappy.
13) Michael Young just keeps getting the job done. First he moves from second to short, then from short to third, and just keeps hitting. Often overlooked, he plays in a great hitters park, in a very good lineup, and is a lock for multiple category excellence. Every year, though, those categories change – 2006 and 2007 were average and rbi, 2008 was average and runs and 2009 was average and homers. Don’t reach for him but he’s a very solid guy to have, especially at the CI spot.
14) Take a good catcher. For years, I eschewed this tactic, often waiting till the last rounds to grab someone…and I often got lucky. Ramon Hernandez in 2006, Bengie Molina in 2007, Geovany Soto in 2008. But in 2010, there are only 5 or 6 good catchers out there, and I’d rather have one of them than be stuck searching the waiver wire all year. I’d be sure you get one of – Mauer, McCann, VMart, Suzuki, or (to a lesser extent) Posada. That’s not to say other guys aren’t passable, but I’d make sure to grab one of those 5.
15) Wait on a shortstop. All of a sudden, shortstop is a very deep position – Hanley, Jeter, Tulowitzki, Rollins, Asdrubal, Zobrist, Tejada, Bartlett, and Yunel to name the top ones. But be careful – a number of guys lose their SS eligibility next year…Michael Young, Felipe Lopez, and Zobrist if your league has 15+ eligibility.
16) With elbow surgery scheduled for this winter, Grady Sizemore should be a second round pick in 2010. He had a decent year as it is, but should return to form next year.
17) Josh Hamilton and Carlos Quentin have as much talent as anyone in baseball, and showed what they can do when healthy. Take a flyer on one of them, but not before the 6th or 7th round…its just too much of a crapshoot before then.
18) Matt Holliday is a second round pick again (his season-losing error notwithstanding). He finished in line with prior years – .313, 24 homers, 94 runs, 109 rbi and 14 steals. Assuming he doesn’t go to Oakland again, take him with confidence – especially if he hits behind Albert again.
19) Justin Upton is going to really breakout next year. Think where Matt Kemp was last year, and that’s Upton. Upton is a bonafide 3rd round pick.
20) You’re crazy if you think Bobby Abreu is stealing 30 bases in 2010.
21) There are only a handful of players who had the all-around season Shin-Soo Choo had (.300 average, 87 runs, 20 hr, 86 rbi, 21 sb). But if you draft him, be prepared for no spectacularness (yep, it’s a word now), just consistency.
22) Cole Hamels is not as good as his 2007 nor as bad at his 2008. My bet is that the career-high workload in 2007 affected him this year, and it remains to be seen whether this year’s similarly high workload will have a negative effect. I’d knock him down a few rounds.
23) Expect David Ortiz’s batting average to continue to fall, but also expect 25 home runs again. There are rumors that he would split DH duties with Mike Lowell if the BoSox pry A-Gon from the Padres, and he only played 6 games at 1B this year, so be careful – he’s the best UTIL out there, but that’s really not saying much.
24) Top Sleeper Pitcher– Clay Buchholz. On that team and in that ballpark, watch him turn into 2010’s version of Jon Lester. Top Sleeper Hitter– Andrew McCutchen. In his first 433 major league at bats, he scored 74 times, hit 12 home runs, stole 22 bases, batted .286 and even drove in 54 from the leadoff spot. Watch him take off next year.
25) 2010 First Round (12-team league): (1) Albert Pujols, (2) Hanley Ramirez, (3) Ryan Braun, (4) Alex Rodriguez, (5) Chase Utley, (6) Prince Fielder, (7) Tim Lincecum, (8) Ryan Howard, (9) Joe Mauer, (10) Matt Kemp, (11) Mark Teixeira, (12) Carl Crawford.
Enjoy the winter, and we’ll see you again before Spring Training. In the meantime, Go Steelers!
Farewell to 2009
October 6, 2009
With the regular season wrapping up tonight with Game #163, herewith is the first installment of 50 things we learned from this season. In no particular order of course (stay tuned for the second installment later in the week):
1) Joe Mauer is an absolute no-brainer first round pick. .364, 28 homers, 96 rbi, 94 runs and 4 steals – all at catcher. He led the league in – wait for it – on base by 30 points, slugging by 20 points, OPS by a whopping 66 points, and was 6th in hits despite missing all of April.
2) Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran don’t belong anywhere near the first round next year. Torn hamstrings and bone bruises are a stolen base’s worst enemies and that’s a huge part of these Mets’ values.
3) Josh Johnson is a bonafide ace. 15 wins, 3.23 ERA, 191 Ks and a WHIP of 1.16 – he should one of the first 7 starters selected.
4) Brandon Webb and Jake Peavy are not. Webb is coming off major shoulder surgery and Peavy (his two good recent starts notwithstanding) is coming off injury and a move to a hitters park and harder league. Drop them a few rounds, at least.
5) Albert Pujols is the #1 pick in the draft next year.
6) Hanley Ramirez (most people’s top choice this year) should be #2 next year. .342 average (good enough for his first batting title), 24 homers, 106 rbi, 101 runs, 27 steals and a .954 OPS. For you fantasy neophytes, that’s good.
7) Todd Helton is not nearly as good as you may think. At the deepest position in the league, he batted an empty .325 – 15 homers, 86 rbi, 79 runs and no steals. Let someone else think he’s returned to form.
8) You should still never pay for saves. Yes, Papelbon and Nathan and Franny Cordero are as solid as they come, but how many people guessed David Aardsma, Ryan Franklin, Leo Nunez, Mike MacDougal would each have more than 20 saves? Or that BJ Ryan would be cut twice and get no saves? Or that Joel Hanrahan, Jason Motte and Manny Corpas would have 6 combined?
9) Garrett Jones is not this good. Yes, he hit 21 home runs in just 300 at bats, but he’s got no major league track record, twice as many strikeouts as walks, and very few rbi and runs. Again, let someone else reach.
10) Raul Ibanez’ draft stock is exactly the same as last year. Even with his white-hot start, he finished the season with strikingly similar numbers – again. He’s a very good #2 outfielder, not a superstar.
11) Zack Greinke really is this good. His win total may be low (just 16), but everything else is stellar. 2.16 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 242 K’s, 10.55 K/9, on and on. Should be the in the top 3 starters taken.
12) Felix Hernandez really is (finally) this good. See Greinke, Zack.
13) Magglio Ordonez is going to make $18 million next year. He reached his at-bat trigger, and is therefore under contract to the Tigers for next season. But that does in no way mean that you should own him. His surprisingly high .309 average is as empty as the Iron City Beer brewery in Pittsburgh.
14) They don’t make them much more consistent than Miguel Cabrera. Since 2004, he has had no fewer than 26 homers and no more than 37; no fewer than 101 rbi and no more than 127; batted no lower than .292 and no higher than .339. Notwithstanding his drunken wife-fight this weekend, still a definite first-rounder.
15) Johan Santana will be excellent, but not worthy of being the first starter taken.
16) That distinction belongs to Tim Lincecum, without much debate. If you think otherwise, you’re probably one of those who chases wins, and ends up losing pitching.
17) Victor Martinez is back. Lots of people soured on him this year, but he finished in a big way – .303 average, 23 homers, 108 rbi, 88 runs and a career high OPS of 912. With Kung Fu Panda losing his eligibility there, V-Mart enters next season as my #2 catcher.
18) Adam Lind is a third round pick. We’ve been hearing about his potential for a couple years, and he finally put it together. .305 average, 35 homers and 114 rbi, to go with 93 runs and an OPS of .932, good for 7th in the AL. Pay no attention to the sore elbow from the end of the season – its from a hit by pitch. He’s the real deal.
19) Vernon Wells is a 16th round pick. Some idiot owner will pick him higher, and then try to deal him to you for Lind. He had five very good seasons, but none since 2006. He’s just not that good.
20) Starters who average a strikeout per inning (i.e. a K/9 of at least 9.00) are worth owning. Period. Don’t believe me? There are fifteen starters who did this, and the top ten are Harden, Lincecum, Verlander, Lester, Gallardo, Vazquez, Jonathan Sanchez, Kershaw, Greinke, and Nolasco. Go get ‘em.
21) Speaking of which, Jon Lester should be drafted higher than Josh Beckett next year. More strikeouts, better ERA, more consistent – give me Lester.
22) Jonathan Papelbon is just fine. Don’t overthink or listen to the worry-wart Red Sox fans. 38 saves, 1.85 ERA (half a run lower than last year), 10.1 K/9 (higher than last year), 54 hits (4 fewer than last year) and 3 blown saves (two fewer than last year). Yes, his walks went up and his K/BB took a hit, but he’s still as good as they come. Plus, how many other closers can walk the bases loaded and then strike out the side?
23) Jacoby Ellsbury is a 2nd round pick; Michael Bourn is a 3rd round pick; Nyjer Morgan is a 4th round pick. Remember when Juan Pierre was a legit 3rd round pick? These three are the second coming of Run Run Juan – Ellsbury hit .301 with 94 runs and 70 steals, Bourn hit .285 with 97 runs and 51 steals; Morgan hit .307 with 74 runs and 42 steals.
24) Matt Kemp is a top-3 outfielder. He hit .297, with 26 homers, 101 rbi, 97 runs, 30 steals. Make no mistake – he’s Beltran without the bone bruise.
25) Put me firmly in the “Jayson Werth cannot do this again” category. He has improved every year, but much like Ryan Ludwick this year, let someone else reach for Werth in the 5th round. But if he’s there in 6th, take him!
Stay tuned for installment #2 later in the week…
Mr. Consistency: Adam Dunn
October 1, 2009
Am I the only one wondering whether Adam Dunn will hit 40 homers this year? Dunn hit exactly 40 homers in each of the past four seasons (2005-2008). Talk about consistency! With three games left, he currently has 38, and is entirely within reach of a fifth straight 40 dinger season.
Did You Know…?
Four shortstops stole at least 30 bases (Elvis Andrus, Jimmy Rollins, Derek Jeter and Jason Bartlett)?
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