h2h Corner ~ Red Light District, the Closer Carousel
August 31, 2009
People seem to devalue closers in h2h leagues, viewing them as one-category oneders that can’t be trusted to either retain a job or post consistent saves from week-to-week. While the latter half of that statement might be true, that doesn’t mean closers have less (or no) value. Read more
Bold Statements and Fearless Predictions
August 30, 2009
This column got off to a fast start, predicting wild success for Jordan Zimmermann and Michael Bourn. Although Bourn has not disappointed, Zimmermann has one start and one major surgery since I wrote about him. Zimmermann will be out for up to 18 months and we now predict that Zimmermann will not represent the Nationals in the 2010 all-star game. I was concerned that this column had created an SI/Madden cover type curse and was wary about drumming up more business for Drs. James Andrews and Lewis Yocum. However, weeks have passed and the masses are calling for more bold statements and fearless predictions. In order to appease my multitude of fanatical readers, I have decided to discuss one young potential star. However, in an attempt to ward of the curse (brought on, of course, by overly detailed statistical analysis), I will limit the statistical analysis and instead compare this player to his cinematic equivalent.
Carlos Marmol has the talent to be a top 5 closer.
Marmol’s cinematic equivalent is former Cleveland Indians closer Ricky “Wild Thing” Vaughn (from Major League).
Ricky Vaughn joined the Cleveland Indians in the spring of 1989, as a no-name power reliever with no control. Vaughn’s wildness almost cost him his job, but a new pair of glasses helped the Wild Thing find the plate with regularity. Vaughn’s fastball topped out at 101 mph; almost unhittable, even for Yankee’s great Clu Haywood. Before arriving in Cleveland, Vaughn spent 2 years in the California Penal League where he first learned the backdoor cutter, a pitch he mastered through painful repetition. Vaughn’s rookie season ended with a double bang, as he hit a home run (scoring with teammate Roger Dorn’s wife) then struck out Haywood on three straight fastballs in the ninth inning of a one-game playoff the following day. Vaughn struggled in his sophomore season, as he abandoned his tough guy persona for a douchey Dukie look, and dabbled with ineffective breaking balls. He recovered in time for the playoffs, however, and was on the mound for the Tribe’s pennant winning out.
Marmol is also a power reliever with a knack for missing the strike zone. He dominated in 2008, with 114 Ks in 87.1 IP, a 2.68 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP. Although Marmol allowed 41 walks in 87.1 IP, he limited opponents to 40 hits (an incredible .135 batting average against). Marmol’s strikeouts are down in 2009 (still an impressive 73 in 60.1 IP), but 56 walks surrendered (nearly one per inning) has kept Marmol from becoming a full time closer. Marmol’s hefty WHIP might not hurt as much if he were a closer (where he’d pitch fewer innings), but a 1.48 WHIP over 70-80 innings qualifies Marmol as a category killer. Until Marmol cuts down on the walks he is no better than a late round pick. However, if he shows up to Spring Training 2010 with a new pair of horn-rimmed glasses, grab him in the 6th round of next year’s draft. Unfortunately for Marmol, closers who can’t find the plate help teams lose games and managers lose jobs, so Marmol will probably never become the great closer he has the potential to be.
h2h Corner ~ Back to the Future, Next Week’s h2h Preview
August 29, 2009
This column will predict how awesome/bad your team can be during next week’s contest. It will prove invaluable for those of you about to set your lineups in weekly leagues. Read more
h2h Corner ~ Katy Perry All-Stars XV
August 28, 2009
Right now, trading deadlines are past or fast approaching and owners are jockeying for their playoff lives. This is the time where you shed underperformers and cling to hot bats and arms. Read more
Minor-ity Report: Highlight on Jaff Decker
August 25, 2009
Selected by the San Diego Padres in the 1st round with the 42nd overall pick of the 2008 amateur draft, Jaff (not Jeff) Decker is a gifted batter and adept outfielder. For a team in the midst of an overhaul, Decker may well race through San Diego’s farm system at the rate he’s already handling opposing pitching.
To begin his professional career, Decker belted a neat 5 homers, 34 RBI, and stole 9 bases with a precocious, Pujols-esque 55:36 BB:K ratio and .352 average in the Rookie League, culminating in a brief promotion to the Northwest League. Not a bad professional entry for the squat (5′10, 190lb) outfielder. But what about ‘09?
So far in 2009, Decker has not disappointed. Though his .304 average sizes up poorly with ’08’s batting title-worthy figure, the power and speed appear back with force. Jeff Decker has already knocked 14 homers, doubled 21 times, stolen 8 bases, and driven in 55 RBI (in 299 at bats). With an intriguingly mature approach at the plate, a nice blend of both power and speed, and a rebuilding franchise dedicated to farming young talent, Decker is a prospect astute fantasy GM’s should keenly watch. His 2009 campaign in the Midwest League of A ball could yield a promotion to double A by either year-end or perhaps to open 2010. From there, it’s just a short trip to the Bigs. .
On The Shelf – Billy Wagner to Boston?
August 25, 2009
So folks, it’s been a little bit again, but then again, who’s keeping track, right?
The newest buzz around the MLB waiver wire is the potential deal to send Billy Wagner from the New York Mets to the Boston Red Sox. The deal hinges on three contingencies: 1) whether or not Wagner waives his no-trade clause; 2) if the Red Sox will decline his $8 million option for 2010; and 3) if the Red Sox will decline to offer him salary arbitration next season.
The Mets have until later today to either make a deal with the Red Sox including players, to not make a deal and to pull him off waivers (thus not letting him be traded at all this season), or to outright release him to Boston.
Rumors are flying around that Boston will oblige Wagner’s request to decline the $8 million option, but are hesitant to not offer him arbitration. If he were traded, he’d be a two month rental (remember how that worked with Eric Gagne guys?). Furthermore, Wagner wants to close. He is 38 years old and is 15 saves short of 400. He also wants to break John Franco’s record of 424 saves by a left handed pitcher. Selfish, yes, but at 38, he deserves to be a little bit (don’t go Brett Favre diva selfish on us, Billy, OK?). He does not want to be a set-up man to Jonathan Papelbon, who consequently, has vocalized his opposition to the potential Wagner move. A lot of “if’s,” if you ask me….
So your fantastic fantasy breakdown is: who knows what’s going to happen?!? What I can tell you is that it’s not going to effect Wagner’s fantasy value this year though, but stay tuned.
If Wagner stays in New York or goes to Boston, he’s not going to close, those are K-Rod and Papelbon’s gigs. He will more than likely be traded at some point in time during the off-season to a team in need of a full-time, quality closer. Think Florida, Tampa Bay, Baltimore, Washington, Pittsburgh (sorry Matt Capps), Toronto, Seattle, Detroit… I can keep going. The point is, Wagner will be closing next year if his surgically-repaired elbow can handle it. He’s of little to no value this year, other than a filler to keep your ERA/WHIP numbers low and to pad some stats such as HOLDS and K’s (if your league has them). If you are in keeper league, however, Wagner may be worth a late September roster addition for a sneaky source of 30-35 saves next season. Might be worth it to drop David Aardsma or Mike MacDougal this year to gain Billy Wagner next. I would….
Minor-ity Report: Highlight on Matt Moore
August 24, 2009
It turns out that when it comes to the proverbial arms race, there is more than just Wade Davis in the Rays farm system. Southpaw starting pitcher Matt Moore was drafted in the 8th round, 245th overall, by Tampa Bay in the 2007 amateur entry draft – and has been taking the minor leagues by storm ever since.
In 2007, Moore notched an impressive 29 whiffs (12.8 K/IP), surrendered a mere 12 hits, and pitched a tidy 20 innings with a 2.66 ERA. Still just 18 years of age to begin 2008, the Rays kept Matt Moore in the Rookie League another full season, where he posted a 1.66 ERA to go with 77 whiffs in 54.1 IP (12.8) and 30 hits and 19 walks surrendered. Those numbers were good enough for Moore’s first dose of professional recognition, having been named the number one pitching prospect in the Appalachian League. But, what has Moore done lately?
Thus far in ‘09, Matt Moore has tossed 105.2 Sally League innings, allowing 71 hits, 59 free passes, and struck out 150 batters with a 2.65 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. What is so impressive about Moore is his continued ability to dominate opposing hitters. Each season, and in spite of differing levels of the Rays’ minor league system, Moore has managed a 12.8 K/IP ratio. How has Moore dominated so consistently? It might have something to do with the fact that there are two plus-plus pitches (92-95 MPH fastball and tight curveball) and a plus-developing changeup that darts away from right-handed batters.
The only question that remains regarding Moore is what is his ETA? Hard to say, since the 2010 season will surely hold the answer. If Moore starts ‘10 in double A and can improve upon lingering control issues, he could see the Bigs that same season. If Moore hits a roadblock on his way to the Show, perhaps 2011 or beyond..but astute GM’s would be well-advised to keep a watchful eye on the blossoming power lefty Matthew Moore.
h2h Corner ~ Red Light District, the Closer Carousel
August 24, 2009
People seem to devalue closers in h2h leagues, viewing them as one-category wonders that can’t be trusted to either retain a job or post consistent saves from week-to-week. While the latter half of that statement might be true, that doesn’t mean closers have less (or no) value. Read more
Fantasy Baseball Etiquette
August 23, 2009
Major League Baseball has a code; a set of unwritten rules and etiquette, the violation of which is punishable by a fastball to the back. Egregious violations including bunting to break up a no-hitter, stealing a base when your team is up 10 runs, or stopping to admire an impressive home run before taking a leisurely stroll around the bases. If any of these occurs, someone’s going to get drilled at the plate and, if things really get out of hand, there may be a brawl before the game (or series) is over. Read more
h2h Corner ~ End Of The Season, A Primer
August 21, 2009
How to win your h2h league and be sneaky about it:
So, h2h, like fantasy football, is all about the play-offs. We’ve now entered the dog days of August and all trade deadlines will have passed soon. There are a few things you need to do to lock down a play-off spot or set yourself up for a long run in the postseason. Read more
Did You Know…?
Rich Harden had the best K/9 rate (10.91) of any starting pitcher? He was followed by Tim Lincecum, Justin Verlander, Jon Lester, Gio Gonzalez, Yovani Gallardo and many others.
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