Phillies Trade For Cliff Lee – Fantasy Impact

July 29, 2009

According to ESPN, the Cleveland Indians just traded Cliff Lee and Ben Francisco to the Philadelphia Phillies in exchange for minor leaguers, Carlos Carrasco (P), Jason Knapp (P), Lou Marson (C), and Jason Donald (SS). 

The trade is a coup for the Philadelphia Phillies who, in their quest to repeat as World Champions, are in desperate need of another strong starter to carry the team — especially with Cole Hamels struggling and Brett Myers on the shelf.  It also is a coup for NL-only fantasy managers who are able to pick up Lee off waivers, or mixed league managers who already own Lee and are hoping for more wins. 

Lee has a 7 wins and a 3.13 ERA in 152 innings pitched.  Fantasy owners can expect Lee to get more wins now that he is backed by the potent Philadelphia offense.  But don’t be shocked if his ERA rises.  Lee has a tendency to let up a lot of home runs, and Philadelphia’s bandbox of a ballpark may accentuate that problem.  Like most pitchers, however, Lee will benefit from no longer having to face a designated hitter.  So, his ERA on the road should be stellar. 

Outfielder, Ben Francisco was having a decent year in Cleveland (.250 average with 10 homers in ~300 at-bats), but will feature as more of a role player in Philadelphia.  Stuck behind Jayson Werth, Raul Ibanez, and Shane Victorino, Francisco will not receive too many starts barring an injury to one of the starters or a trade.  For AL-only owners of Francisco, you got hosed and will now need to scramble to find a worthy replacement, not an easy task to accomplish at this point in the season. Depending on how gullible managers in your league are, NL-only managers may want to pick up Francisco and trade him immediately, touting his 10 homers and 33 RBI’s, to an unsuspecting manager.

As for the minor leaguers headed to Cleveland, Carrasco and Marson hold the most fantasy baseball value.  Carrasco, currently in Triple A was ranked the 28th best prospect in the minors by mlb.com. He has a three good pitches, with a fastball that reaches upward of 95 mph.  After featuring in the futures game in 2008, Carrasco has struggled mightily in 2009.  His ERA currently sits at 5.18 with a .262 batting average against.  Still, his high strikeout numbers and low walk totals suggest a dominance that may eventually be harnassed by Cleveland.

Lou Marson, a former 4th round draft pick,  is now the heir apparent to Victor Martinez at catcher.  The 23 year old was hitting .294 in Triple A with a .382 OBP%, 1 homer and 24 RBI’s in 211 at-bats.  In 2008, he did even better – hitting .314 with a .433 OBP%.  He projects as a poor man’s Michael Young at catcher, and without the power.

Jason Knapp has potential, but won’t be ready for the majors for several years.  Currently in Single A, Knapp has a 4.01 ERA and great periphery stats: 85 innings pitched, only 63 hits allowed, and an impressive 111 K’s.  But Knapp is wild (39 walks) and will need to improve his control, while maintainng his dominance, at higher levels of the minors before he comes a true fantasy baseball target. 

Shorstop Jason Donald appears to be a buy-low gamble by the Indians.  Currently in Triple A, Donald is hitting only .235 with 1 homer, 17 RBI’s and a .296 OBP% in 234 at-bats.  Contrast that with his 2008 performance, where he was named one of the Arizona Fall League’s Rising Stars, and hit .307 with 14 homers, 54 RBI’s and a .391 OBP% in 362 at-bats.

All four of these minor leaguers are worth looking at if your league includes a deep minor league system.  Carrasco and Marson should be on your radar for 2010 and are likely to see some playing time in the majors as the season moves toward a close. 

Note that the Phillies were able to hold onto their most prized prospects; namely, Dominic Brown, Michael Taylor, and Kyle Drabek.  All three are worth watching and hold promise as future stars.

Written by Evan Rosen · Filed Under Player News | 1 Comment 

Jack Wilson to the Mariners – Fantasy Impact

July 29, 2009

The Pirates just continued their fire sale, dealing starting shortstop Jack Wilson and SP Ian Snell to the Mariners for SS Ronny Cedeno, C/1B Jeff Clement and 3 Class A pitchers. 

Wilson is worth grabbing in any AL-only league.  He isn’t great with the bat by any stretch, but shortstop is so thin that he’d  be a starter on most of the 10 teams in my (terrible) AL-only league.  Snell is also intriguing – he had a very good 2007, a bad 2008, and an even worse 2009 before the Pirates sent him down to AAA and he stated that he never wanted to pitch for the Pirates again.  He’s got talent, and a good strikeout rate when he’s good, so might also be worth a flier if they call him up – especially with that big ballpark and great defense the Mariners have.

For the Pirates side, the centerpiece of the deal is Clement.  The 3rd overall pick of the 2005 draft as a catcher, the Mariners had already moved Clement to 1b/DH.  With Doumit at C, and 2009 first round choice Tony Sanchez expected to be their next catcher, Clement is going to be playing 1B for the Pirates, albeit in AAA to start.  He can really hit – he has torn up the minor leagues for a couple years now – but has not had much success on the major league level.  I would not be surprised if Clement gets a September call-up and significant playing time at 1B, so he is definitely someone to keep your eye on in NL-only keeper and dynasty leagues.

As for  Cedeno, not worth owning, unless it is the deepest of the deep NL-only leagues.

None of these guys are ownable in mixed leagues right now.  Snell used to be, and Clement may still be, but not now.  Again, unless its super deep dynasty or something like that, but in that case, he’s probably taken anyway.

Written by Jesse Mendelson · Filed Under American League Only, Articles, Blog, Minor Leagues, Miscellaneous, Mixed League, National League Only, Roster Management | Leave a Comment 

The Five Guys You Meet in Every League (Part 3 of 3)

July 29, 2009

Welcome to the last of a three part series examining fantasy baseball owner stereotypes. In the second installment we looked at the Invisible Man and the Rookie. In this final installment, we discuss the Hustler and the Natural (a.k.a Lucky Larry). Read more

Written by Oren Margulies · Filed Under Miscellaneous | 3 Comments