Bold Statements and Fearless Predictions

July 26, 2009

Each week (or two) I examine one player who has managed to avoid the fantasy spotlight, remaining on the fringe of fantasy stardom. Last week I took a look at Washington Nationals pitcher Jordan Zimmermann. Zimmermann made one start following my post and pitched well (8 Ks and 1 walk), but was let down (again) by his defense and run support. I apologize to anyone who read my post then picked up or traded for Zimmermann, since he was recently placed on the DL. In my defense, I did write in my soon to be posted bio that I lack the ability to predict injuries.

This week we take a look at Houston Astros speedy outfielder Michael Bourn.

Michael Bourn is the best base-stealer in the Major Leagues (other than Carl Crawford). This may not seem like such a bold statement. After all, Bourn is leading the NL in steals, and only Carl Crawford and Jacoby Ellsbury have more thefts in the majors this year. Let’s start by taking a look at the following numbers for non-Crawford leading base-stealers for the 2009 season:

Steals

Caught Stolen

Success rate
Jacoby Ellsbury (Boston)

43

7

86%
Michael Bourn (Houston)

37

8

82%
B.J. Upton (Tampa Bay)

32

10

76%
Chone Figgins (L.A. Angels)

31

9

78%
Nyjer Morgan (Washington)

29

14

67%

All five have at least 40 attempts, but only Ellsbury and Bourn have a success rate greater than 80 percent. Morgan’s success rate is very low for a top base-stealer, and, if he played for a team that was higher in the standings (I know, every team is higher in the standings), he probably wouldn’t have as much leeway to run around the bases. Now take a look at these numbers for the 2009 season:

Batting Avg.

Runs Scored
Jacoby Ellsbury (Boston)

.291

48
Michael Bourn (Houston)

.287

64
B.J. Upton (Tampa Bay)

.242

59
Chone Figgins (L.A. Angels)

.312

78
Nyjer Morgan (Washington)

.298

52

Many top base-stealers don’t provide you with great power numbers, so you want to make sure you have a great three category player. Too low a batting average or too few runs will cause you to lose points in other hitting categories as you gain points in steals. I wouldn’t want B.J. Upton, who will lower my batting average. Jacoby Ellsbury only has 4 runs in his last 10 games, and has spent most of the season in the bottom half of the Red Sox batting order, which leads to fewer at bats and fewer chances to score (though he has lead off more often as of late). At this point you must be wondering why I’m writing about Bourn, and not Figgins, who has been an elite three category hitter this year (with multiple position eligibility). Let’s take a look at this:

Team Runs

Team RBI

Next Batter
Jacoby Ellsbury (Boston)

488

463

Dustin Pedroia
Michael Bourn (Houston)

410

390

Miguel Tejada / Kaz Matsui
B.J. Upton (Tampa Bay)

515

490

Evan Longoria / Carl Crawford
Chone Figgins (L.A. Angels)

532

508

Macier Izturis / Bobby Abreu
Nyjer Morgan (Washington)

417

403

Nick Johnson

Of the five teams listed above, the Houston Astros score the fewest runs and knock in the fewest RBI. In other words, the players hitting behind Bourn are less likely to knock him in than the players hitting behind Ellsbury, Bourn, Upton, or Morgan. Yet Bourn trails only Figgins in runs scored among these five players. In addition, as a low scoring team, the Astros are less likely to face their opponent’s weakest pitchers (the #5 and #6 relief pitchers). Bourn is more likely to face the starter, set-up man, and closer. Figgins, Upton and Ellsbury are more likely to face the starter, then a few middling relievers, and are more likely than not to avoid the opponent’s closer. Bourn also has weaker protection behind him than Figgins and Ellsbury. Pitchers may pay less attention to Ellsbury with MVP Pedroia in the batter’s box. Ditto for Upton with Crawford or Longoria hitting behind him. Bourn is more likely to draw the pitcher’s full attention on the basepaths. Tejada is hitting for a high average, but his power number’s have mysteriously (or not so mysterious) disappeared.

At this point you may be running to trade for Figgins, who has been a more valuable fantasy player this year than Bourn. But Bourn hasn’t come by his numbers cheaply, and at 26 Bourn is four and a half years younger than Figgins, who has struggled to play a full 162 games the past few years. As Bourn’s teammates improve around him, Bourn’s numbers should continue to improve. Bourn likely has a lower salary number in auction/keeper leagues than Upton, Ellsbury, or Figgins, and should be one of the most valuable keepers next year as an elite three category hitter.

In 1991 the Astros traded a young speedy centerfielder to the Cleveland Indians for Eddie Taubensee and Willie Blair. Needless to say, that trade did not work out for the Astros, as Kenny Lofton became one of the league’s best centerfielders and base-stealers for the Cleland Indians (and a few others). In 2007 the Astros sent struggling reliever Brad Lidge to the Phillies for, among others, Michael Bourn. Although Lidge helped the Phillies win the World Series last year, his success may have been a mirage as he has struggled this year. Bourn struggled at the plate last year, hitting only .229, but has recovered to post a respectable batting average in only his third season in the majors. If Bourn continues to improve, and finds himself surrounded by better talent in future years, he will make Astros fans forget about the Kenny Lofton trade (at least for a few minutes here or there).


Advice: If you are positioned to gain points in steals this year, or if you compete in a keeper league, you should make Bourn one of your top trade deadline targets. He’s not a big name, he doesn’t play for a good team, and his career batting average of .256 is not impressive. The person who owns Bourn in your league may still (foolishly) view him as a one category player. Give him a call (or send him an e-mail) and offer him an outfielder with more power and less keeper potential. He’ll thank you now; he’ll hate you later.

Written by Oren Margulies · Filed Under Trade Strategy | 2 Comments 

Meet Garrett Jones

July 26, 2009

Since his recall from Triple A by the Pirates, Garrett Jones (1B/OF) has taken the Bigs by storm.  In just 76 at bats during 2009 since his promotion, Jones has knocked 10 homers, driven in 15 runs, and stolen 3 bases, while batting a robust .342/.398/.842.  In fact, no Pirate has hit as many homers as Jones has in a single month since Hall of Fame alumnus Willie Stargell.  It is thought that Garrett Jones’ emergence as a credible big league power threat directly contributed to the recent trade of Adam LaRoche to Boston.  So what do we make of the mountainous hype surrounding this 28 year old late-comer? In order to determine Jones’ legitimacy, it will prove worthwhile to delve a little bit deeper.

Jones is not a newcomer to the power scene.  After all, he’s reached the 30 home run plateau before in the minors (and the 20 home run mark three times).  Rather than power though, it is Garrett Jones’  patience at the dish that is lending most directly to his present success.  Moreso, Jones has established himself as an emerging threat to swipe bases – adding another weapon on his game.  Before his recent recall, Jones had belted 12 homers, 18 doubles, stolen 14 bases, and was batting .307 in the International League (277 at bats).  So having already notched a collective 22 homers, 17 steals, and 24 doubles in around 350 at bats – where will Garrett Jones go from here?

Well, it is fair to say that with LaRoche in Boston, Jones will enjoy some job security at either first base or left field (at least until the recall of Lastings Milledge).  It appears that the Pirates outfield will feature prize Andrew McCutchen in center field, Milledge in left, and either Brandon Moss or Steve Pearce in right field.  So, in order to maintain the playing time (and precious three-hole in the lineup card), Garrett Jones will have to do what he does best - hit.  Astute Fantasy GM’s should plan for a more terrestrial batting average moving forward, but the power and speed should be reasonable.  Don’t hold your breath on Jones becoming the next Grady Sizemore, but Pittsburgh is hoping he can plug up the gaping offensive void LaRoche’s departure creates.

Written by Russ · Filed Under Player News | Leave a Comment