Getting Your Phil
July 15, 2009
There’s a certain pride you have to have when your favorite Major League team does something unprecedented – or at the very least, something that hasn’t been seen in a long time.
The Fightin’ Phils did something this week that no National League team had done since Mike Schmidt first donned the red pinstripes – send all three starting outfielders to the All-Star Game. And while Pittsburgh was the last to do it (in 1972, sending Roberto Clemente, Willie Stargel and Al Oliver to the Midseason Classic), the Phillies did it in an era in which there are more teams (16 vs. 12) and in which there is the dreaded “each team must be represented” rule.
That makes the trio’s accomplishment all the more noteworthy. But what I want to examine is exactly which of the three outfielders – Raul Ibanez, Shane Victorino or Jayson Werth – is the best player to have on your fantasy baseball team. Which guy is the most valuable to a squad as of the All-Star break and looking ahead?
Let’s look at the five standard categories:
Batting Average
Victorino – .309 (15th in NL)
Ibanez – .309 (16th in NL)
Werth – .263 (52nd in NL)
Even looking at career batting averages, it’s tough to figure out who has the edge. Ibanez (.287) and Victorino (.286) have nearly identical career batting averages. Seeing how Ibanez has actually finished a season above .300, I’d have to give him the nod in the long run. But call this category a “push” between the two. Werth is right around his career average, so don’t expect a swing of more than 15-20 points. He’ll probably top out at about .280-.285.
EDGE: Ibanez and Victorino (tie)
Home Runs
Ibanez – 22 (T-5th)
Werth – 20 (T-8th)
Victorino – 6 (T-70th)
Ibanez was having a career year until he went down with an injury in mid-June, and although he hasn’t hit a bomb since June 13, he’s still near the top of the league. However, he has hit more than 24 home runs only once in his career (33 in 2006). Werth hit a career-high 24 dingers last year despite only starting 103 games. He’s almost equaled that total in 81 games so far. You’ve got to give the first-half edge to Ibanez (22 homers in 62 games), but I think Werth still hasn’t fully tapped his potential, while Raul will “merely” be solid in the second half.
EDGE: Werth
Runs Batted In
Ibanez – 60 (T-8th)
Werth – 56 (T-14th)
Victorino – 42 (T-39th)
Depending on how manager Charlie Manuel crafts his lineup, any of these three guys could get plenty of RBI opportunities. I think Ibanez’s higher batting average gives him a clear edge, even while hitting behind Ryan Howard. Raul has three times as many at-bats as Werth and has struck out less than twice as much. More contact equals better chances at driving in runs.
EDGE: Ibanez
Runs Scored
Victorino – 63 (2nd)
Werth – 60 (5th)
Ibanez – 53 (T-12th)
You’ve got to go with the speedy Victorino – he gets on base, he puts himself in scoring position by stealing bases (more on that in a second) and his spot in the batting order lends itself to more scoring opportunities. His legs probably lead to an extra run scored each week, either via stolen base or taking an extra base on a hit. However, I’m a little surprised at how close this is.
EDGE: Victorino
Stolen Bases
Victorino – 15 (T-10th)
Werth – 12 (T-13th)
Ibanez – 4 (T-63rd)
Another close category at the midway point, but Victorino has a clear edge looking at career numbers (only 180 more career at-bats and nearly twice as many steals). Plus, he’s stolen more than 35 bases in each of the past two seasons. Werth is a smart baserunner and is what I’d call “deceptively quick.” Any Phillies fan worth his salt will remember the August 2007 game against the Mets when Jayson stole second and third on consecutive pitches, leading to a wild, 9th-inning walk-off win.
EDGE: Victorino
Overall
So, how do you choose between the three? Yahoo! rates Ibanez at 14th, Werth at 17th and Victorino at 40th in rank this year. However, I think it’s a little closer than that given the disparities and similarities between the three players’ stats in the five categories.
When I first started this analysis, I thought Victorino would be a clear winner because of his strength in three of the five categories. However, he isn’t running away with it in runs scored or stolen bases. Ibanez has power, average and the ability to drive in runs in his favor, but he’s never stolen double digit bases in a season – and the groin injury probably won’t help matters. Werth is playing in his first full season as a starter and is performing admirably, but how will he hold up in September?
For the first half, I’d have to give the nod to Ibanez, simply because of his tremendous numbers despite missing nearly a month. If not for that month, he’d probably be near the top in the league in runs scored and might have even swiped a couple more bags to make it an even more definitive argument.
As for the rest of the season, I’d gamble and put my money on Werth. He’s streaky at times and his batting average isn’t on par this year or career-wise with the other two, but he’s more consistent across all five categories. You’ll probably end up with a guy hitting .275, 34 HRs, 100 RBIs, 100 Runs and 20 SBs.
But really, it doesn’t seem like you could go wrong with any member of this distinguished trio.
Comments
2 Responses to “Getting Your Phil”
Got something to say?
Did You Know…?
Only one shortstop (Hanley Ramirez) knocked in over 100 runners
Polls
Loading ...
Tough decision. All three are good choices for any fantasy team. I have Ibanez on mine, and thinking of dishing him now at peak value. I think it depends on what your team needs. If need power, with some speed, go for Werth. If need speed, with some power, go Victorino. If don’t need speed at all, just need power and not in a keeper league, go Ibanez.
[...] Drew Vulturo takes a look at the Phillies outfielders and thinks Shane Victorino is the most valuable of the three. He’s also correct in saying you can’t go wrong with Ibanez, Werth, or Victorino in your lineup. [...]