h2h Corner ~ I’m a Believer: All-star Game, National League Batters Edition
July 11, 2009
Welcome to June’s “I’m a Believer” column. Yes, I got the name from a Monkees’ song. And yes, I like the song. Did you know that Neil Diamond wrote it, as well as many other songs by the Monkees? Isn’t Neil Diamond cool (Red Sox fans)? Therefore – fantasy baseball love notwithstanding – aren’t I cool (hello, transitive property)?
Didn’t think so. But at least you now have “Then I saw her face, now I’m a believer…” stuck in your head (Co-Stan-Za, by Mennen).
For this month’s version, I’m focusing on your Major League All-stars.
I’m a believer in:
Yadier Molina – St. Louis Cardinals – Yadier hasn’t had the fantasy season that his brother Bengie has. While Bengie has posted an abysmal .269 OBP, he has twice as many HRs and 21 more RBIs than his younger brother. However, over Yadier’s last 94 ABs, he has posted a .356 OBP, scored six runs, and knocked in ten. Not as far off Bengie’s pace than you would think. If you’re looking for a backstop that won’t kill you, Yadier isn’t bad. Still, there are probably 10 – 15 backstops that are more useful. I believe Yadier is a good real life catcher, fantasy? Not so much.
Albert Pujols – St. Louis Cardinals – There isn’t anything I could say to put in perspective how good Pujols is. Don’t trade him unless you get a first and second rounder. Don’t trade him for a pitcher unless you really need those stats. Basically don’t trade him.
Chase Utley – Philadelphia Phillies – Utley slipped on draft day because of lingering concerns about his injury. Well, his line of 59 runs, 20 HRs, 61 RBIs and eight SBs has made his owners smile from ear to ear. Utley is on pace to have a career year. As long as he stays healthy, he could be the second most valuable fantasy player.
Hanley Ramirez – Florida Marlins – Hanley, the 9th ranked player in the Yahoo! game, has been just about the only highly touted shortstop to deliver this year. Derek Jeter, Ben Zobrist, Jason Bartlett and Miguel Tejada round out this year’s top five shortstops. There is a bit of an injury concern at the moment. But, like with Utley and Pujols, you shouldn’t be moving Ramirez unless you get ungodly returns.
David Wright – New York Mets – I ranked Wright number one overall coming into the year. I thought he would display a lot more power this year, though a combination of Citi Field and “poor” performance have limited him to just five HRs. Still, even with his poor performance, he has 54 runs, 43 RBIs, and 20 SBs. He’s been good in the ratio categories as well: .324 AVE and .412 OBP. I think his batting average will come down a bit over the second half, but his power should improve. He could be a decent buy low at the moment (or maybe I’m just stubborn).
Carlos Beltran – New York Mets – Beltran won’t be playing in the All-star Game and probably shouldn’t have been voted a starter. He has had a decent year, especially considering the injury. Unfortunately, according to Jenny Vrentas at the Newark Star Ledger, Beltran will not be coming off the DL anytime soon. I believe he’ll score runs in bunches when he finally returns.
Ryan Braun – Milwaukee Brewers – Aspiring GM, Braun has been incredibly useful this year and is the third best OF in the game. He’ll probably be the top OF down the stretch now that Hunter is on the DL and Crawford isn’t stealing as much as he was. He is on pace to eclipse most of his previous offensive numbers and is being useful in all five categories. This makes Braun, perhaps, the fourth most useful player in fantasy.
Raul Ibanez – Philadelphia Phillies – Ibanez was activated from the DL on July 10 after being sidelined for nearly a month. Ibanez, the fifth best outfielder, will give Braun a run for his money to be king of the outfield mountain at the end of the year. If people are wary about his return from injury and you can buy for $0.90 on the dollar, I’d be jumping on that. I believe in his productivity.
Brian McCann – Atlanta Braves – Holy moly, did you know there are 33 players on each All-star team? Brian McCann has been the ninth best catcher so far this year – behind, among others, Inge, Pierzynski, Suzuki, and Bengie Molina. His ratios are right in line with his career, so, as long as he is healthy and can see, he should see an increase in his counting stats. If you can use his slightly down first half to buy him for $0.50 on the dollar, go ahead. Still, don’t mortgage your team for a slightly above average catcher.
Prince Fielder – Milwaukee Brewers – Fielder is the second best first baseman for the year, behind the immortal Pujols. Fielder has been gobbling up RBIs like they’re veggie wraps. He has really improved his ratios this season, posting a .313 AVE and a .435 OBP. It’s likely they might not continue to be so high, but there won’t be a precipitous drop either. Enjoy the top 10 returns.
Adrian Gonzalez – San Diego Padres – It is hard to quibble with Gonzalez’s season so far: 49 runs, 24 HRs, 52 RBIs, and a .393 OBP. Still, a lot of that was owed to an amazing start. Over his last 96 ABs, he has just seven runs, two HRs, and nine RBIs. The Padres just traded Scott Hairston, which further hurts the Padres lineup’s run producing ability. Gonzalez is seeing the ball well and is posting the highest OBP for his career. The run and RBI totals likely won’t be at the elite level, but he’ll get on base and hit enough HRs to make you a happy owner. I believe he’ll begin to hit some more out of the park after this brief respite.
Ryan Howard – Philadelphia Phillies – I guess when you have so many talented first basemen you need to have four on a team. Howard is his usual self: low ratios, high counting stats. You knew what you were getting when you drafted him and he hasn’t disappointed. As the summer heats up, we could see some hot streaks down the stretch.
Orlando Hudson – Los Angeles Dodges — I’ve never liked O-dog, seeing him as little more than a Placido Polanco clone. In his last 95 ABs, Hudson has scored 11 runs, hit 12 RBIs, stole just two SBs, and posted a .221/.269 AVE/OBP. For the season, he hasn’t been bad, but at this point going forward I might even prefer Martin Prado over him. If you can trade Hudson for decent value and pick up a Prado or someone similar, that’d be a good way to maximize your roster.
Freddy Sanchez – Pittsburgh Pirates – Speaking of Placido Polanco-like players, Sanchez is the 15th ranked second basemen in the Yahoo! game. I don’t like players that derive most of their value from average or on base percentage. Sanchez hasn’t been exceptional in average (.318) or OBP (.356) to warrant being rostered in anything but deep leagues.
Miguel Tejada – Houston Astros – Tejada, the fifth ranked shortstop in the game so far, has had a Phoenix-like rise this season: 48 runs, 47 RBIs, a .330 AVE and .360 OBP. Still the lack of power – just seven HRs – limits his value. He should be eclipsed in the second half by several shortstops: Furcal, Rollins and Tulowitzki. His career BAbip is .298, his first half BAbip is .339. So there will be some correction in his ratios. I don’t think Tejada will continue to be as valuable as he is at this point.
Ryan Zimmerman – Washington Nationals – After Zimmerman’s amazing start he has cooled to be the seventh best third basemen over the first half. While Zimmerman is on pace for more than 100 runs and RBIs and near 30 HRs, it is not likely he will reach these numbers. Over his last 112 ABs, Zimmerman is batting just .232 with a .283 OBP. If you can trade him based on his impressive start, do so. I doubt Zimmerman will live up to those paces above.
Brad Hawpe – Colorado Rockies — Where did Hawpe come from? His 2009 numbers (.327/.401/.584) make his 2008 season (.283/.381/.498) look pedestrian. Hawpe is on pace for a similar HR total to last year – 25, but he should greatly eclipse his career average for runs and RBIs, right? Not necessarily, his 2009 BAbip is .375, and while hitters aren’t subject to the .300 rule like pitchers are, the best hitters in baseball, like Tony Gwynn (career BAbip: .341) and Wade Boggs (career BAbip: .344), never approached .375. Hawpe’s career BAbip is .342, so expect some regression in average and OBP, which could affect his run and RBI totals. A lot of his increased value is also derived from his ability to hit lefties this year: .288 AVE, .362 OBP, .538. His career line against lefties: .250/.323/.445. I don’t believe this can continue.
Hunter Pence – Houston Astros – Would it surprise you that Hunter Pence is the 33rd best fantasy outfielder this year? Pence has had a good year and could be a 20-20 player by year’s end, especially if he continues to steal at his rate. Last season Pence had 11 steals in 21 attempts, which is horrible. This year he has nine in 15 attempts, which, while not good, is almost serviceable. Pence is who he is and will end up with about 100 runs, 20 HRs, and 100 RBIs. Definitely a serviceable number three outfielder.
Justin Upton – Arizona Diamondbacks – Upton, at just 21, has become a better fantasy player than Bossman Junior. He has also posted the ninth best first half among all outfielders. Upton is on pace for a 30 HR, 25 SB season, oh and he also scored 53 runs and knocked in 50 batters. Upton, to quote Christina Aguilera, just keeps getting better. Enjoy the early returns on your faith.
Shane Victorino – Philadelphia Phillies – I need to finish this column quick before another Phillies outfielder is added to the All-star squad. I had Victorino as the 32nd ranked hitter coming into the season and he hasn’t disappointed: 62 runs, 42 RBIs, 15 SBs and a .314/.379 AVE/OBP. Victorino, the 31st ranked player in the Yahoo! game, has been the 10th best outfielder over the season. Victorino continues to be an underrated fantasy commodity and will continue to produce. If others don’t believe, happily pay $0.75 on the dollar for him.
Jayson Werth – Philadelphia Phillies – I had Werth as the 54th ranked hitter coming into the season and apparently I undersold his potential. Werth was the 16th ranked player and sixth best outfielder over the first half of the season. The latest Phillies player to hit 20 HRs has also scored 59 runs and knocked in 56, while adding 12 SBs. Werth is finally fulfilling the potential of being a first round pick by the Dodgers in 1997. He’ll continue to be a top 20 OF in the second half.
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The David Ortiz & Andruw Jones Don’t Call It A Comeback, I’ve Been Here For Years Post
July 11, 2009
As the LL Cool J song goes, “Don’t call it a comeback. I’ve been here for years. I’m rocking my peers puttin’ suckers in fear.” And so it is with some players, once part of the fantasy baseball elite, then written off for dead, and now back with a vengeance, slugging the ball like yesteryear.
1. David Ortiz
David Ortiz highlights the list of sleeping giants that have awoken. As we all know, Ortiz started the season hitting more like Rafael Santana than Big Papi. Indeed, ESPN’s Bill Simmons wrote, “We reached the ending badly point with Ortiz [ ] weeks ago.” And it certainly seemed that way. Ortiz hit .230 with 0 homers in April, and .143 with 1 homer in May. A far cry from a major league bench player, let alone one of the most feared sluggers in the game.
But then Ortiz had a monster June, hitting .320 with 7 homers, 18 RBI’s and a 1.062 OPS. July hasn’t been as kind to him (his batting average in July is .221), but Ortiz still smacked another 3 homers and 8 RBI’s through the first 10 days of the month. His season totals are .221-11-44, which puts him on pace for 22 homers and 86 RBI’s. One good month does not make a season, but the signs of life are encouraging. I don’t expect Ortiz to put up numbers like he did in the past, but he clearly has value in many fantasy baseball leagues and could surprise early-season naysayers with his final numbers come October.
Another Home Run Derby in his future?
2. Andruw Jones
I would be remiss if I didn’t discuss the amazing tranformation of Andruw Jones. From 1998 to 2007 Jones was one of the best power hitters in baseball. Slugging 30 homers for him was like Takeru Kobayashi eating 30 hot dogs in a sitting, it was relatively easy. In 2005, Jones hit 51 homers and in 2006 he hit 41. Many fantasy baseball managers assumed that Jones had set a new bar for production, and 40 homers became the expectation. But Jones struggled in 2007, managing only 26 homers and a .222 batting average.
Jones parted company with the Braves and joined the Dodgers as a free agent for the 2008 season. As quickly as Luke Skywalker went from wimpy farm boy to Jedi Knight, Jones went from feared power hitter to over-the-hill bench warmer. In 209 at-bats with the Dodgers, Jones hit .158 with only 3 homers. Whispers grew that his bat speed had slowed considerably and that scouts did not foresee a return to glory. The Dodgers released him in January 2009, and the Rangers signed him to a minor league deal in February. To the surprise of many, Jones was called up to the majors on April 5, only a few days after the season started.
Jones has found a new home in Texas and is hitting the ball almost as well as he did while a member of the Braves. For the year, he is hitting .240 with 14 homers, and 34 RBI’s in only 167 at-bats. He started out as a part-time platoon player, but has moved closer to a starting role with each passing month. He will still kill your batting average, but the power appears to have returned, which gives him value in AL-only and deeper mixed leagues.
* * *
Who else may have a 2009 mid-season comeback? One possibility is Jimmy Rollins. A year after winning the MVP, Rollins disappointed legions of fantasy baseball fans in 2008 with a very mediocre .277-11-59-47-76 line. As a result, Rollins become a prime target for those managers expecting a rebound year in 2009. Instead, he’s become a prime target for the waiver wire or trade block. Through the end of May, Rollins had a meager 3 homers and 9 steals, hardly the numbers fans were expecting him to put up. June was no better; he hit .167 with 3 homers a 1 steal.
But it’s too early to write Rollins off. Over the past few weeks Rollins has started to hit the ball better, showing more power and a greater willingness to swipe a bag. Over the past 10 days, Rollins has hit .358 with a homer, 7 RBI’s and 3 steals. Plus, over the past three years Rollins tends to hit a bit better after the all-star break. I don’t expect him to return to MVP numbers — especially the home run numbers – but he can (and should) perform much better than he has thus far in 2009. His value has never been lower, so now may be a good time to take a risk and buy low on Rollins.
Did You Know…?
Troy Tulowitzki hit the most HRs (32) by a shortstop by eight?
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