h2h Corner on Steroids and Why Fantasy Matters More than Ever
July 31, 2009
Why am I one of the happiest people that “Big Papi” David Ortiz’ name appeared among the Performance Enhancing one-o-three? It’s only minorly because I hate the Roid Sox (see what I did there) just a smidge less than the Yankees, being a bitter Orioles fan and all. When the best thing that happened to your team was trading away the best player your organization developed in the past 10 years, then you get a little bitter. Read more
Sherrill to Dodgers; Grabow to Cubs – Fantasy Impact
July 30, 2009
3 deals today to discuss:
The bigger of the two deals is George Sherrill going to the Dodgers for a couple of prospects (3b Josh Bell and P Steve Johnson). MLB.com is reporting this is done, but apparently unconfirmed. Either way, its nice to get a headstart on your leaguemates (as I did earlier today). If it goes down, AL-only owners lose Sherrill altogether, and mixed league owners lose a closer. Jim Johnson will probably take over as closer – GO GRAB JIM JOHNSON if he’s still available in your league! As for Sherrill, he will join the setup committee in LA (joining Troncoso and Kuo), so will definitely have value in NL-only leagues, but his value elsewhere is virtually nil.
The Orioles acquire Bell, a 22 year-old slugging 3B prospect, who is hitting .296 with 11 homers and 52 RBIs for Double-A Chattanooga. Johnson is also 22 and is 8-4 with a 3.82 ERA at Single-A Inland Empire. Both will report to the minors, and only Bell is someone worth watching for future season, especially since Melvin Mora is 62 years old with 12 children to help raise.
As for the other deal, I feel like I write this every day, but the Pirates continue their sale of everything not nailed down (though I hear GM Neal Huntington’s desk is next) by dealing lefties John Grabow and Tom Gorzellany to the Cubs for 3 players – SP Kevin Hill, RP Jose Ascanio, and 2B Josh Hamilton. Always nice to deal within your division for a discount, right? Anyway, Grabow was only owned as Pirates closer Matt Capps’ handcuff, but now he has even less value – he’ll be the other lefty in the Cubs bullpen, but with Samardjzia and Marmol and Gregg, he wont be much more than a situational lefty. NL-only owners can probably find someone better out there.
As for the guys the Buccos receive, Kevin Hart is in the Cubs rotation now, and actually pitched a pretty good game against the Astros today. His value certainly doesn’t go up with a deal to the Pirates, and his wins will probably take a hit by leaving the Cubs. Ascanio is a hard-throwing, high-strikeout reliever who has been with the Cubs for parts of the past couple years. He gives alot of hits and alot of walks, but can make guys miss. He’ll be a middle reliever on the Pirates, and may be able to work his way back to value if he can miss more bats. Harrison is a A-level second baseman, so not very relevant for fantasy at this time.
Oh, and Go Grab Jim Johnson!
Trade Scorecard: Grading the Deals and Picking Winners & Losers
July 30, 2009
This segment will examine noteworthy trades of 2009 and their fantasy impact:
1. Matt Holliday
St. Louis gets: Matt Holliday
Oakland gets: Brett Wallace, Clay Mortensen, Shane Peterson
Winner: Oakland A’s. Wallace is a bona fide stud at the hot corner, a position the A’s have had difficulty with lo these past few season (see Eric Chavez and his varied injuries). Clay Mortensen is considered by many to be one of the Cards’ top pitching prospects. So, the acquisition of bat-for-hire Matt Holliday came at the cost of a few top prospects.
2. Cliff Lee
Phillies get: Cliff Lee & Ben Francisco
Oakland get: Carlos Carrasco, Jason Donald, Jason Knapp, Lou Marson
Winner: Philadelphia Phillies. Cliff Lee seems to be everyone’s consolation prize since the asking price for Roy Halladay seemed out-of-this-world. That would be selling the former Cy Young winner short. After coming into his own in 2008, Lee has followed up with a stellar 2009, albeit without the wins. Sure, the Phillies gave up Carrasco, one of their top starters in the minors, but Carlos Carrasco had been having an abysmal year in 2009 and the remaining ingredients in the deal were not highly touted prospects, making the winner obvious – Philadelphia.
3. Julio Lugo
St. Louis gets: Julio Lugo
Boston gets: Chris Duncan
Winner: St. Louis. In spite of a penchant for domestic abuse that sent him packing from Houston, Lugo is a solid offensive contributor. He can play several positions on the diamond, and has proven time and again an ability to get on base, steal, and even hit for some pop. Chris Duncan is nothing more than a fourth OF or a platoon player capable of hitting the occasional home run. Duncan lacks the defensive prowess or ability to handle southpaws required of an everyday player. Sure, it is possible that Duncan will flourish in Boston or recapture some of his lost power, but in the meantime – advantage Cardinals.
4. Freddy Sanchez
San Francisco gets: Freddy Sanchez
Pittsburgh get: Tim Alderson
Winner: Pirates. Easy declaration. Freddy Sanchez, for all of his hype as a former batting title winner and All-Star, is a somewhat power-starved (career high 11 homers in 2007) infielder with a penchant for the DL. The Pirates net a top draft pick and one of the best prospects in the minors in Tim Alderson, a stud already in double A at age 21. Look for Alderson to round out the new-look Pirates starting rotation in 2010, and NL-only fantasy GM’s should jump on Delwyn Young who will inherit the starting job at 2B from the departing Sanchez.
5. Jack Wilson & Ian Snell
Seattle gets: Jack Wilson & Ian Snell
Pittsburgh gets: Jeff Clement, Ronny Cedeno, Nathan Adcock, Brett Lorin and Aaron Pribanic
Winner: Seattle. The Mariners get a top defensive SS with a decent bat and a serviceable starting pitching with a lot of upside who is sorely in need of a fresh start. The Pirates don’t get magic beans back, though. The Bucs get Clement and Cedeno, two major league ready talents with some upside of their own. Still, early indications are that Seattle won this deal.
6. Mark DeRosa
St. Louis gets: Mark DeRosa
Cleveland gets: Chris Perez
Winner: St. Louis. The Cardinals discovered what the rest of us already knew – that closers are not as difficult to manufacture as they appear (see perennial underachiever turned All-Star closer Ryan Franklin). So, the fact that Chris Perez seemed like a talented but unremarkable reliever no longer seemed reason enough to hold fast to the former closer-of-the-future. DeRosa, on the other hand, a versatile defensive infielder also capable of holding his own in the outfield, can flat out hit. When healthy and given the opportunity to start, DeRosa is more than capable of eclipsing 20 homers and batting .280+. With the mental collapse of Khalil Greene and anemic bat of Brendan Ryan, this one is a no-brainer – advantage Cardinals.
7. Ryan Garko
San Francisco gets: Ryan Garko
Cleveland gets: Scott Barnes
Winner: San Francisco. San Fran gets a power hitting first baseman who is under their control beyond 2009, and fills the void at first, either as a starter or as a platoon righty to balance the deficiencies of Travis Ishikawa and Jesus Guzman. More likely than not Garko will start and hit, making this trade an easy one to judge.
Phillies Trade For Cliff Lee – Fantasy Impact
July 29, 2009
According to ESPN, the Cleveland Indians just traded Cliff Lee and Ben Francisco to the Philadelphia Phillies in exchange for minor leaguers, Carlos Carrasco (P), Jason Knapp (P), Lou Marson (C), and Jason Donald (SS).
The trade is a coup for the Philadelphia Phillies who, in their quest to repeat as World Champions, are in desperate need of another strong starter to carry the team — especially with Cole Hamels struggling and Brett Myers on the shelf. It also is a coup for NL-only fantasy managers who are able to pick up Lee off waivers, or mixed league managers who already own Lee and are hoping for more wins.
Lee has a 7 wins and a 3.13 ERA in 152 innings pitched. Fantasy owners can expect Lee to get more wins now that he is backed by the potent Philadelphia offense. But don’t be shocked if his ERA rises. Lee has a tendency to let up a lot of home runs, and Philadelphia’s bandbox of a ballpark may accentuate that problem. Like most pitchers, however, Lee will benefit from no longer having to face a designated hitter. So, his ERA on the road should be stellar.
Outfielder, Ben Francisco was having a decent year in Cleveland (.250 average with 10 homers in ~300 at-bats), but will feature as more of a role player in Philadelphia. Stuck behind Jayson Werth, Raul Ibanez, and Shane Victorino, Francisco will not receive too many starts barring an injury to one of the starters or a trade. For AL-only owners of Francisco, you got hosed and will now need to scramble to find a worthy replacement, not an easy task to accomplish at this point in the season. Depending on how gullible managers in your league are, NL-only managers may want to pick up Francisco and trade him immediately, touting his 10 homers and 33 RBI’s, to an unsuspecting manager.
As for the minor leaguers headed to Cleveland, Carrasco and Marson hold the most fantasy baseball value. Carrasco, currently in Triple A was ranked the 28th best prospect in the minors by mlb.com. He has a three good pitches, with a fastball that reaches upward of 95 mph. After featuring in the futures game in 2008, Carrasco has struggled mightily in 2009. His ERA currently sits at 5.18 with a .262 batting average against. Still, his high strikeout numbers and low walk totals suggest a dominance that may eventually be harnassed by Cleveland.
Lou Marson, a former 4th round draft pick, is now the heir apparent to Victor Martinez at catcher. The 23 year old was hitting .294 in Triple A with a .382 OBP%, 1 homer and 24 RBI’s in 211 at-bats. In 2008, he did even better – hitting .314 with a .433 OBP%. He projects as a poor man’s Michael Young at catcher, and without the power.
Jason Knapp has potential, but won’t be ready for the majors for several years. Currently in Single A, Knapp has a 4.01 ERA and great periphery stats: 85 innings pitched, only 63 hits allowed, and an impressive 111 K’s. But Knapp is wild (39 walks) and will need to improve his control, while maintainng his dominance, at higher levels of the minors before he comes a true fantasy baseball target.
Shorstop Jason Donald appears to be a buy-low gamble by the Indians. Currently in Triple A, Donald is hitting only .235 with 1 homer, 17 RBI’s and a .296 OBP% in 234 at-bats. Contrast that with his 2008 performance, where he was named one of the Arizona Fall League’s Rising Stars, and hit .307 with 14 homers, 54 RBI’s and a .391 OBP% in 362 at-bats.
All four of these minor leaguers are worth looking at if your league includes a deep minor league system. Carrasco and Marson should be on your radar for 2010 and are likely to see some playing time in the majors as the season moves toward a close.
Note that the Phillies were able to hold onto their most prized prospects; namely, Dominic Brown, Michael Taylor, and Kyle Drabek. All three are worth watching and hold promise as future stars.
Jack Wilson to the Mariners – Fantasy Impact
July 29, 2009
The Pirates just continued their fire sale, dealing starting shortstop Jack Wilson and SP Ian Snell to the Mariners for SS Ronny Cedeno, C/1B Jeff Clement and 3 Class A pitchers.
Wilson is worth grabbing in any AL-only league. He isn’t great with the bat by any stretch, but shortstop is so thin that he’d be a starter on most of the 10 teams in my (terrible) AL-only league. Snell is also intriguing – he had a very good 2007, a bad 2008, and an even worse 2009 before the Pirates sent him down to AAA and he stated that he never wanted to pitch for the Pirates again. He’s got talent, and a good strikeout rate when he’s good, so might also be worth a flier if they call him up – especially with that big ballpark and great defense the Mariners have.
For the Pirates side, the centerpiece of the deal is Clement. The 3rd overall pick of the 2005 draft as a catcher, the Mariners had already moved Clement to 1b/DH. With Doumit at C, and 2009 first round choice Tony Sanchez expected to be their next catcher, Clement is going to be playing 1B for the Pirates, albeit in AAA to start. He can really hit – he has torn up the minor leagues for a couple years now – but has not had much success on the major league level. I would not be surprised if Clement gets a September call-up and significant playing time at 1B, so he is definitely someone to keep your eye on in NL-only keeper and dynasty leagues.
As for Cedeno, not worth owning, unless it is the deepest of the deep NL-only leagues.
None of these guys are ownable in mixed leagues right now. Snell used to be, and Clement may still be, but not now. Again, unless its super deep dynasty or something like that, but in that case, he’s probably taken anyway.
The Five Guys You Meet in Every League (Part 3 of 3)
July 29, 2009
Welcome to the last of a three part series examining fantasy baseball owner stereotypes. In the second installment we looked at the Invisible Man and the Rookie. In this final installment, we discuss the Hustler and the Natural (a.k.a Lucky Larry). Read more
h2h Corner ~ The Great Trade Debate
July 28, 2009
You know how borderline trades can ruin leagues and sometimes friendships? I don’t think I have to tell you. That’s why Fantasy Baseball 101 created the Trade Mediator Service. At its base, fantasy needs to be fun – when it starts to become a drag and people are personally attacking one another, then, well, it has ceased to become a game.
I want to highlight a situation and get my reader’s feedback.
A friend recently e-mailed me about a trade in his long-term keeper league, with great friends from college. It’s a shallow league (8) teams, with 30 roster spots. It is h2h, and 5×5 (they switch AVE for OBP — otherwise standard). There are no quirky roster move rules or anything.
The way they do keepers is you add two rounds to each drafted player for the next year. So Granderson in the 10th in 2009 will be an 8th round pick in 2010, if you so choose to keep him.
So recently, the last place team, which is out of the final play-off spot by 25 games, decided to trade Hanley Ramirez (not able to be kept), Cliff Lee (no reason to keep him), Jonathan Papelbon (no reason to keep him) and Manny Ramirez (no reason to keep him) for Jacoby Ellsbury (17th rounder next year, then 15th rounder, then 13th, etc.), Wandy Rodriguez (24th rounder next year, then 22nd, etc.) and a 6th round pick in next year’s draft to the first place team. The team getting the four players dropped Furcal and CJ Wilson.
This was days after the second-to-last-place team traded Alex Rodriguez (not able to be kept), CC Sabathia (not able to be kept) and Joe Nathan (no reason to keep him) for Matt Kemp (seventh rounder next year, 5th rounder in 2011) and Aaron Hill (24th rounder, then 22nd, etc.).
So what say you loyal readers about the trades? It’s always fun to politely debate (eh?).
Also, sorry for my sporadic writing lately – I know you miss your Katy Perry All-stars, Back to the Future Previews and Red Light Districts. I’ve been moving and Verizon is really killing me with the no Internet thing (does anyone have an in with them?). I’ll be steadier soon (then I’ll be gone for two weeks). Sorry – I appreciate my readers!
Bold Statements and Fearless Predictions
July 26, 2009
Each week (or two) I examine one player who has managed to avoid the fantasy spotlight, remaining on the fringe of fantasy stardom. Last week I took a look at Washington Nationals pitcher Jordan Zimmermann. Zimmermann made one start following my post and pitched well (8 Ks and 1 walk), but was let down (again) by his defense and run support. I apologize to anyone who read my post then picked up or traded for Zimmermann, since he was recently placed on the DL. In my defense, I did write in my soon to be posted bio that I lack the ability to predict injuries.
This week we take a look at Houston Astros speedy outfielder Michael Bourn.
Michael Bourn is the best base-stealer in the Major Leagues (other than Carl Crawford). This may not seem like such a bold statement. After all, Bourn is leading the NL in steals, and only Carl Crawford and Jacoby Ellsbury have more thefts in the majors this year. Let’s start by taking a look at the following numbers for non-Crawford leading base-stealers for the 2009 season:
|
Steals |
Caught Stolen |
Success rate |
|
| Jacoby Ellsbury (Boston) |
43 |
7 |
86% |
| Michael Bourn (Houston) |
37 |
8 |
82% |
| B.J. Upton (Tampa Bay) |
32 |
10 |
76% |
| Chone Figgins (L.A. Angels) |
31 |
9 |
78% |
| Nyjer Morgan (Washington) |
29 |
14 |
67% |
All five have at least 40 attempts, but only Ellsbury and Bourn have a success rate greater than 80 percent. Morgan’s success rate is very low for a top base-stealer, and, if he played for a team that was higher in the standings (I know, every team is higher in the standings), he probably wouldn’t have as much leeway to run around the bases. Now take a look at these numbers for the 2009 season:
|
Batting Avg. |
Runs Scored |
|
| Jacoby Ellsbury (Boston) |
.291 |
48 |
| Michael Bourn (Houston) |
.287 |
64 |
| B.J. Upton (Tampa Bay) |
.242 |
59 |
| Chone Figgins (L.A. Angels) |
.312 |
78 |
| Nyjer Morgan (Washington) |
.298 |
52 |
Many top base-stealers don’t provide you with great power numbers, so you want to make sure you have a great three category player. Too low a batting average or too few runs will cause you to lose points in other hitting categories as you gain points in steals. I wouldn’t want B.J. Upton, who will lower my batting average. Jacoby Ellsbury only has 4 runs in his last 10 games, and has spent most of the season in the bottom half of the Red Sox batting order, which leads to fewer at bats and fewer chances to score (though he has lead off more often as of late). At this point you must be wondering why I’m writing about Bourn, and not Figgins, who has been an elite three category hitter this year (with multiple position eligibility). Let’s take a look at this:
|
Team Runs |
Team RBI |
Next Batter |
|
| Jacoby Ellsbury (Boston) |
488 |
463 |
Dustin Pedroia |
| Michael Bourn (Houston) |
410 |
390 |
Miguel Tejada / Kaz Matsui |
| B.J. Upton (Tampa Bay) |
515 |
490 |
Evan Longoria / Carl Crawford |
| Chone Figgins (L.A. Angels) |
532 |
508 |
Macier Izturis / Bobby Abreu |
| Nyjer Morgan (Washington) |
417 |
403 |
Nick Johnson |
Of the five teams listed above, the Houston Astros score the fewest runs and knock in the fewest RBI. In other words, the players hitting behind Bourn are less likely to knock him in than the players hitting behind Ellsbury, Bourn, Upton, or Morgan. Yet Bourn trails only Figgins in runs scored among these five players. In addition, as a low scoring team, the Astros are less likely to face their opponent’s weakest pitchers (the #5 and #6 relief pitchers). Bourn is more likely to face the starter, set-up man, and closer. Figgins, Upton and Ellsbury are more likely to face the starter, then a few middling relievers, and are more likely than not to avoid the opponent’s closer. Bourn also has weaker protection behind him than Figgins and Ellsbury. Pitchers may pay less attention to Ellsbury with MVP Pedroia in the batter’s box. Ditto for Upton with Crawford or Longoria hitting behind him. Bourn is more likely to draw the pitcher’s full attention on the basepaths. Tejada is hitting for a high average, but his power number’s have mysteriously (or not so mysterious) disappeared.
At this point you may be running to trade for Figgins, who has been a more valuable fantasy player this year than Bourn. But Bourn hasn’t come by his numbers cheaply, and at 26 Bourn is four and a half years younger than Figgins, who has struggled to play a full 162 games the past few years. As Bourn’s teammates improve around him, Bourn’s numbers should continue to improve. Bourn likely has a lower salary number in auction/keeper leagues than Upton, Ellsbury, or Figgins, and should be one of the most valuable keepers next year as an elite three category hitter.
In 1991 the Astros traded a young speedy centerfielder to the Cleveland Indians for Eddie Taubensee and Willie Blair. Needless to say, that trade did not work out for the Astros, as Kenny Lofton became one of the league’s best centerfielders and base-stealers for the Cleland Indians (and a few others). In 2007 the Astros sent struggling reliever Brad Lidge to the Phillies for, among others, Michael Bourn. Although Lidge helped the Phillies win the World Series last year, his success may have been a mirage as he has struggled this year. Bourn struggled at the plate last year, hitting only .229, but has recovered to post a respectable batting average in only his third season in the majors. If Bourn continues to improve, and finds himself surrounded by better talent in future years, he will make Astros fans forget about the Kenny Lofton trade (at least for a few minutes here or there).
Advice: If you are positioned to gain points in steals this year, or if you compete in a keeper league, you should make Bourn one of your top trade deadline targets. He’s not a big name, he doesn’t play for a good team, and his career batting average of .256 is not impressive. The person who owns Bourn in your league may still (foolishly) view him as a one category player. Give him a call (or send him an e-mail) and offer him an outfielder with more power and less keeper potential. He’ll thank you now; he’ll hate you later.
Meet Garrett Jones
July 26, 2009
Since his recall from Triple A by the Pirates, Garrett Jones (1B/OF) has taken the Bigs by storm. In just 76 at bats during 2009 since his promotion, Jones has knocked 10 homers, driven in 15 runs, and stolen 3 bases, while batting a robust .342/.398/.842. In fact, no Pirate has hit as many homers as Jones has in a single month since Hall of Fame alumnus Willie Stargell. It is thought that Garrett Jones’ emergence as a credible big league power threat directly contributed to the recent trade of Adam LaRoche to Boston. So what do we make of the mountainous hype surrounding this 28 year old late-comer? In order to determine Jones’ legitimacy, it will prove worthwhile to delve a little bit deeper.
Jones is not a newcomer to the power scene. After all, he’s reached the 30 home run plateau before in the minors (and the 20 home run mark three times). Rather than power though, it is Garrett Jones’ patience at the dish that is lending most directly to his present success. Moreso, Jones has established himself as an emerging threat to swipe bases – adding another weapon on his game. Before his recent recall, Jones had belted 12 homers, 18 doubles, stolen 14 bases, and was batting .307 in the International League (277 at bats). So having already notched a collective 22 homers, 17 steals, and 24 doubles in around 350 at bats – where will Garrett Jones go from here?
Well, it is fair to say that with LaRoche in Boston, Jones will enjoy some job security at either first base or left field (at least until the recall of Lastings Milledge). It appears that the Pirates outfield will feature prize Andrew McCutchen in center field, Milledge in left, and either Brandon Moss or Steve Pearce in right field. So, in order to maintain the playing time (and precious three-hole in the lineup card), Garrett Jones will have to do what he does best - hit. Astute Fantasy GM’s should plan for a more terrestrial batting average moving forward, but the power and speed should be reasonable. Don’t hold your breath on Jones becoming the next Grady Sizemore, but Pittsburgh is hoping he can plug up the gaping offensive void LaRoche’s departure creates.
Fantasy Impact: Matt Holliday Traded to St. Louis
July 24, 2009
Imagine this – Matt Holliday batting cleanup behind King Albert (Pujols). Well, early Friday a trade sending St. Louis uber-prospect Brett Wallace (as the centerpiece in a multiprospect deal) to Oakland in exchange for 2009’s free agent prize Matt Holliday was finalized. Along with Wallace, the Athletics net Clay Mortenson and Shane Peterson. At the time of the trade, Holliday was hitting .286 with 11 homers and 12 steals with 54 RBI, amounting to a disappointing season for the soon-to-be big contract seeker.
For AL-only Matt Holliday owners, this trade represents a loss with no discernable immediate gain in non-keeper formats. In keeper formats, however, the gain of Wallace hardly provides solace. At least he provides a potent future bat at the hot corner. On the Athletics, Wallace may in fact see regular playing time as early as this season (with the loss of Eric Chavez to yet another surgery and the implosion of all third base alternatives).
In NL-only formats, and depending on league rules, lucky fantasy GM’s may have inherited Matt Holliday for little more than a triple A, blue chip, 20+ homer prospective Big League talent. That is not to minimize the potential in Wallace, but keeper leaguers will certainly value him more than others..at least until his recall.
Mixed league Holliday owners may be pleased by his newfound offensive protection, sandwiched between Pujols and Ryan Ludwick in a run-producing St. Louis batting order now brandishing Rick Ankiel as it’s seven hitter. Either way, it will be interesting to see the impact on Pujols, who rarely enjoys the protection he may now find.
No matter your league format or team loyalty, the long awaited dealing of Matt Holliday has now come and gone. Barring a sudden collapse in fortune by St. Louis, that leaves some other big named talents still on the market. Namely – Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, and George Sherrill. Tune in for future editions of Fantasy Impact, following noteworthy fantasy trades.
Did You Know…?
Brandon Inge hit the fifth most HRs (27) among third basemen?
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