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Buy Low, Sell High: Pitchers Edition

June 29, 2009

Consider me a more austere and versed fan-ball version of Jim Cramer.  In this segment we will explore examples of players who fit both the “buy low” and “sell high” categories. In other words, which players are likely to step it up and improve upon their present numbers, and which are likely to downward spiral soon? This time, we will explore pitchers and then briefly revisit our previous segment’s picks to determine whether they still qualify:

Buy Low:

Scott Baker – Opponent batting average is the same as last season when he was considered a hot commodity but injuries have bumped his ERA and loss total skyward.  He’s been solid in his last few outings and seems to have moved past those early injuries.

Francisco Liriano – June ERA, WHIP, and peripherals suggest he has turned a corner.  His last four starts in a row have been good, but the ERA and WHIP still sit at 5.88 and 1.57, respectively.  Name cache will drive his value up, but many Fantasy GM’s have dropped Liriano or are still considering cashing out, so he is a perfect buy low candidate. 

Derek Lowe – The ageless Lowe was superb in April and May, but has suffered to the tune of a 7.36 ERA and a 1.87 WHIP in June.  Widely considered a second half pitcher, expect better and buy Low(e). 

Randy Johnson – RJ may not qualify as a conventional buy low candidate based upon his June and his future Hall of Fame status, but many fantasy GM’s so devalue Johnson after seasons of mediocrity that he may never come cheaper.  Consider him a virtual lock for a sub 4.00 and sub 1.25 WHIP with 14+ victories by season’s end, if healthy. Coming from where he is at present, statistically, that means Johnson is an indisputed buy low option.  

Honorable Mention – Barry Zito, Zach Duke

Sell High:

Kevin Millwood – Unless Millwood has begun a low-key regimen of performance enhancers or become a student of pitching like his former teammate Greg Maddux, then this season’s effort is something of a statistical anomaly.  In fact, to find the last season anywhere close to this in Millwood’s career, you’d have to look back to either 2002 or 1999.  The point is, even if he ends the year with a stellar line, it won’t follow his present 8-5 record, 2.64 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in a linear fashion.  Sell high NOW.

Jair Jurrjens – Labeled by scouts as ordinary and middling, Jurrjens has shot past his expectedly low ceiling the past two seasons with respectable numbers.  So far in ‘09, Jurrjens has been surreal – posting a 2.93 and 1.28 WHIP.  But, don’t forget 2008’s collapse – 3.00 ERA and 1.32 WHIP before the break but 4.66 ERA and 1.45 WHIP after it.

Joel Pineiro – No brainer, I know.  Pineiro’s 3.40 ERA and 1.18 WHIP represent precipitous drops relative to 2008’s totals.  The difference has been the long-ball, as Joel Pineiro allowed 22 homers in 148 IP during ‘08 and 2 so far in 90+ IP during ‘09.  Unless the sinker is back, expect ballooning numbers from now ’til season-end.

Honorable Mention – Randy Wolf, Doug Davis

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Written by Russell Sandman · Filed Under Articles  | 1 Comment »

Comments

One Response to “Buy Low, Sell High: Pitchers Edition”

  1. MDS on July 2nd, 2009 10:17 pm

    2. the sinker is back. he dropped velocity for more movement.
    im buying pineiro but not giving you much. hes pineiro.
    word to big bird, check yourself before MDS wrecks yourself

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