h2h Corner ~ Red Light District, the Closer Carousel
June 30, 2009
Closers do most of their work late at night, often after most upstanding fantasy managers have gone to bed. They necessitate early checking of box scores and Fantasy Baseball 101 to see if they secured the win for the home team. Read more
Saves, Saves and More Saves
June 30, 2009
One of the more interesting sub-plots from the 2009 fantasy baseball season have been the closers. Recently, I was perusing the year-to-date statistics and was amazed when I looked at the league leaders in saves. As of June 30, there are a staggering 18 closers with at least 14 saves. Although that stat immediately jumped off the page, the following stat is even more impressive: there are 13 closers with at least 18 saves. I cannot remember a time when so many closers had this many saves through the end of June. Not surprising, some of the names on this list are familiar: K-Rod, Nathan, Papelbon and Rivera. However, this list also includes guys we are not accustomed to seeing in the top level of the category, guys that probably went too late in drafts or went undrafted altogether: Franklin, Rodney and Aardsma. To try and put this in perspective, in a standard 10-team league which starts 2 closers, it is possible that 18 out of the 20 starting closers have at least 14 saves. Truly unreal!
People should not construe this article as delivering a “don’t take closers early” message. That is certainly not my intention. In fact, I am usually one of those guys that prefers to select a #1 closer fairly early; usually a guy ranked in my preseason top 8. I find it even more important to secure a strong #2 closer (usually a guy ranked in the top 13). For instance, this year I snagged Broxton as my #1 and picked up Heath Bell later on. Over the years, this strategy has worked for me.
Buy Low, Sell High: Pitchers Edition
June 29, 2009
Consider me a more austere and versed fan-ball version of Jim Cramer. In this segment we will explore examples of players who fit both the “buy low” and “sell high” categories. In other words, which players are likely to step it up and improve upon their present numbers, and which are likely to downward spiral soon? This time, we will explore pitchers and then briefly revisit our previous segment’s picks to determine whether they still qualify:
Buy Low:
Scott Baker – Opponent batting average is the same as last season when he was considered a hot commodity but injuries have bumped his ERA and loss total skyward. He’s been solid in his last few outings and seems to have moved past those early injuries.
Francisco Liriano – June ERA, WHIP, and peripherals suggest he has turned a corner. His last four starts in a row have been good, but the ERA and WHIP still sit at 5.88 and 1.57, respectively. Name cache will drive his value up, but many Fantasy GM’s have dropped Liriano or are still considering cashing out, so he is a perfect buy low candidate.
Derek Lowe – The ageless Lowe was superb in April and May, but has suffered to the tune of a 7.36 ERA and a 1.87 WHIP in June. Widely considered a second half pitcher, expect better and buy Low(e).
Randy Johnson – RJ may not qualify as a conventional buy low candidate based upon his June and his future Hall of Fame status, but many fantasy GM’s so devalue Johnson after seasons of mediocrity that he may never come cheaper. Consider him a virtual lock for a sub 4.00 and sub 1.25 WHIP with 14+ victories by season’s end, if healthy. Coming from where he is at present, statistically, that means Johnson is an indisputed buy low option.
Honorable Mention – Barry Zito, Zach Duke
Sell High:
Kevin Millwood – Unless Millwood has begun a low-key regimen of performance enhancers or become a student of pitching like his former teammate Greg Maddux, then this season’s effort is something of a statistical anomaly. In fact, to find the last season anywhere close to this in Millwood’s career, you’d have to look back to either 2002 or 1999. The point is, even if he ends the year with a stellar line, it won’t follow his present 8-5 record, 2.64 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in a linear fashion. Sell high NOW.
Jair Jurrjens – Labeled by scouts as ordinary and middling, Jurrjens has shot past his expectedly low ceiling the past two seasons with respectable numbers. So far in ‘09, Jurrjens has been surreal – posting a 2.93 and 1.28 WHIP. But, don’t forget 2008’s collapse – 3.00 ERA and 1.32 WHIP before the break but 4.66 ERA and 1.45 WHIP after it.
Joel Pineiro – No brainer, I know. Pineiro’s 3.40 ERA and 1.18 WHIP represent precipitous drops relative to 2008’s totals. The difference has been the long-ball, as Joel Pineiro allowed 22 homers in 148 IP during ‘08 and 2 so far in 90+ IP during ‘09. Unless the sinker is back, expect ballooning numbers from now ’til season-end.
Honorable Mention – Randy Wolf, Doug Davis
Fantasy Impact: Cardinals’ Chris Perez dealt for Indians’ Mark DeRosa
June 28, 2009
The obvious fantasy impact is that AL-only fantasy GM’s have lost a valuable offensive commodity in Mark DeRosa, a player who qualified at three different positions and was mashing the ball. Conversely, NL-only fantasy GM’s net a slugging middle infielder and all at the price of a mediocre middle reliever with no chance of notching saves.
The impact of the deal for both players is that DeRosa will presumably slot into the hot corner for St. Louis, but his versatility and the potential return of Troy Glaus (or call-up of Brett Wallace) could drive DeRosa to second base, giving him yet more fantasy value. The impact for Chris Perez is almost nil. He had been outplayed by Ryan Franklin in St. Louis and was afforded no real opportunity to take hold of the closer job, and in Cleveland he will set-up for Kerry Wood. The only difference is that Wood has been awful and Perez will neatly fit into the “closer of the future” in Cleveland too. Just don’t expect any saves from Perez any time soon – and along those same lines, expect some bumps along the way as he adjusts to facing a DH and more beefy AL lineups..
Minor-ity Report: Highlight on Scott Sizemore
June 26, 2009
Scott Sizemore is neither the flashiest prospect in professional baseball nor the most popular Sizemore. What he is, is a 2006 5th round draft pick by the Detroit Tigers that brings an intriguing mixture of power, speed, and positional versatility to the table. In fact, the Virginia Beach native is quickly earning attention as one of the top middle infielders in Detroit’s organization. Let’s look between the numbers:
Scott Sizemore began his professional career after a three year stint at Virginia Commonwealth. There, Sizemore flashed some power and speed, topping out at 12 homers, 19 steals, and 56 RBI in 200 at bats (with more walks than whiffs). All this as a burgeoning prospect at shortstop.
After his final season at VCU, Sizemore began pro ball at single A Oneonta of the New York Penn League, where he hit 3 homers but batted a robust .327 in just under 300 at bats. Not bad for a fresh-faced 21 year old with no professional experience, and in effect, good enough to earn a promotion the following season. In ‘07, Sizemore was played almost entirely at second base, where he hit 4 homers, stole 16 bases, and batted an unremarkable .265. His plate patience was still intact, but his statistical line was still not particularly worthy of fantasy accolade.
In 2008, Sizemore stepped it up and belted 4 homers and stole 14 bags in just 200 at bats, an improvement upon 2007’s output in both the power and speed departments. But come 2009, a healthy Sizemore took double A (Eastern League) by storm, knocking 9 homers and stealing 7 bases in just 228 at bats, with a .307 average to boot. That was good enough for a promotion to triple A, where Sizemore has held his own with a homer and a .278 average in just over 30 at bats.
The question on every Fantasy GM’s mind is – when does Sizemore fever hit Detroit? The answer is most likely early 2010…but with Adam Everett and Ramon Santiago splitting time at shortstop and Placido Polanco not tearing it up at second base, perhaps the era of Scott Sizemore will soon be upon us. Astute Fantasy GM’s be warned – there’s a new Sizemore in town and he is worth watching!
Minor-ity Report: Highlight on Carlos Santana
June 25, 2009
We are talking about the Cleveland Indians catching prospect, not the famous guitarist. At 5′11 and 170 lbs, Santana is a dimunitive target for Cleveland’s double A affiliate, Akron, but he packs a punch at the plate. The former non-drafted free-agent began his professional career in 2005 at age 19 as a third baseman and outfielder. That season, Carlos Santana hit an unimpressive one long-ball in 78 at bats. His .295 average that ‘05 season was serviceable, but what was prescient of his already present plate patience were his ratio of walks to whiffs – 16/8. That’s right, twice as many free passes as strikeouts for a 19 year old in rookie ball. Not too bad after all.
What would follow for Carlos Santana might fit into the ”coming of age story” genre. In ‘06 and predominantly patrolling the outfield for Ogden in the Pioneer League, Santana belted 7 homers and batted .303 in just 132 at bats (.938 OPS). Again, Carlos Santana boasted a moneyball-friendly 30:19 BB:K ratio. All that was good enough to earn Santana a promotion to high A ball, where he promptly faded to the tune of 3 homers and a .268 average while whiffing more than walking for the first time in his pro career, all in nearly 200 at bats. After that 2006 setback in the Florida State League, Cleveland returned Santana to catching and to the Midwest League, where, again, he was unimpressive in 2007.
Two seasons of toil and mediocrity served as something of a wakeup call for the young Carlos Santana, who responded to criticism about his offensive play by taking a giant leap forward in 2008. How big was that leap? Santana belted 6 homers and batted .352 in the Carolina League before getting promoted to the California League. There, Carlos Santana smacked a career-high 14 homers, 96 RBI, 34 doubles, and posted a tidy .323 average. With little left of the season, Cleveland again bumped Santana up, only this time, to double A where he had only 8 at bats. But the die was cast, and Santana’s 2008 statistical line read .326, 21 homers, 117 RBI, 10 steals, and 39 doubles (oh, and his walk to strikeout ratio returned to better than 1:1). His .999 OPS was the highest of his professional career, and Carlos Santana had catapulted to the top of Cleveland’s top prospects list.
Having finally flexed his muscles at the plate in 2008, Santana faced the formidable task of besting his best performance. Santana has certainly begun the 2009 season on pace to exceed even last year’s totals, already knocking 10 homers, 43 RBI, and a .276 average to go with 15 doubles and a .939 OPS (in 192 at bats). What comes next for Cleveland’s double A backstop?
The Tribe has Victor Martinez behind the plate splitting his time at first base too to make room for young masher Kelly Shoppach, thought to be VMart’s heir behind the dish. So, what will become of catcher-of-the-future Carlos Santana? Hard to say at this point. But from a practical standpoint, Santana’s plate patience, ability to switch-hit, and athleticism make him a candidate to push Shoppach to DH and Hafner out of town, altogether. He could be dealt also, but either way, his ETA should be around 2010. Astute Fantasy GM’s would be wise to keep a watchful eye on Carlos Santana.
h2h Corner ~ Katy Perry All-Stars X
June 24, 2009
Welcome to the latest installment of the weekly hot and cold fantasy update.
This column is all about the recent hot/cold trends and how they can engulf owners. Read more
h2h Corner ~ Red Light District, the Closer Carousel
June 22, 2009
Closers do most of their work late at night, often after most upstanding fantasy managers have gone to bed. They necessitate early checking of box scores and Fantasy Baseball 101 to see if they secured the win for the home team. Read more
h2h ~ The Buddy Garrity/Don Draper/Ed Norton Sales Convention
June 22, 2009
Who isn’t versed in financial lingo nowadays? In these tough economic times, it has become clear that everyone needs to know how to manage their finances. You certainly can’t leave it up to the experts. So, in light of that, I (not an expert) am going to help you with players you should be selling, moderately positioning to sell, and those you should be keeping the faith on. Read more
Can the Mets Catch A Break?
June 22, 2009
Another Met is headed to the disabled list, this time it’s superstar outfielder Carlos Beltran. Just when you thought it could not get any worse for the Mets, it did. Beltran joins Jose Reyes, Carlos Delgado and J.J. Putz, just to name a few, on the DL.
Mets brass hoped that Beltran would be able to play through his sore right knee, however the discomfort seemed to be to much for the all-star slugger. New York has not released the results from Monday’s MRI, but it could not have been positive, if he was placed on the 15 day DL immediately following the procedure.
This was the last thing the Mets needed, as well as some fantasy owners. Look for Fernando Martinez and Jeremy Reed to fill in at CF short term. If the injury is more severe than expected, the Mets may look elsewhere to find his replacement.
-Bobby Holt
Did You Know…?
Jacoby Ellsbury had more SBs than Brian Roberts and Elvis Andrus combined?
Polls
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