Time to Hit the Panic Button?

May 31, 2009

Let the dumping begin.

Much like high school, fantasy baseball begins each year with great expectations. And much like high school, fantasy baseball owners rarely end up going to prom with their dream date.

In the preseason, we all draft who we think is going to propel us to victory. We scrutinize and agonize over statistics, projections and that “X-factor,” trying to determine who are the best pieces to this puzzle. Sometimes, those players we draft are exactly what we wanted. Other times, we’re left scratching our heads and wondering what exactly we did to deserve this cruel prank of an unproductive third-round draft pick.

For each flop we draft, we must carefully weigh whether it is better to drop said player and pick up a lesser-known commodity, or whether we should wait it out in the hopes that they come around. For me, I try to use the two-month rule before hitting the “panic button.” And the time to hit that button is now.

By June 1, you’ve hopefully gotten a fair sample of what a player is going to (or not going to) produce that season. You can safely drop a pitcher with an ERA higher than your class valedictorian’s GPA. You can cast aside a batter whose batting average makes that Mendoza guy look like an All-Star. If you’re not where you want to be in the standings, it’s time to look to make some wholesale changes.

And yet in Yahoo! Fantasy Baseball, 81% of the leagues have a team “boasting” the woeful David Ortiz (.185, 1 HR, 18 RBI, 0 SB, 15 R). In nearly two-thirds of the leagues, Garrett Atkins (.193, 3, 17, 0, 17) is unavailable because he’s already nestled on someone’s roster. And Brandon Morrow (0 W, 6 Sv, 18 K, 7.63 ERA, 2.02 WHIP) is taken in just over half (53%) of leagues.

Meanwhile, there are perfectly capable players that are still available in more than half of leagues out there: Luke Scott (.333, 11 HR, 29 RBI, 0 SB, 21 R), owned in 39% of leagues, John Baker (.268, 6, 19, 0, 26), a producing catcher only owned in 38% of leagues, Joel Pineiro (5 W, 0 Sv, 25 K, 3.86 ERA, 1.24 WHIP), 20%, and Scott Hairston (.321, 6 HR, 21 RBI, 5 SB, 17 R), at 11%, a great steal in NL-only leagues.

We’ve reached the point in the season where a name should not be enough for an owner to keep a player on their roster. Ortiz, Vlad Guerrero (.226, 1, 3, 0, 4), Francisco Liriano (2 W, 0 Sv, 50 K, 6.60 ERA, 1.62 WHIP) and Scott Kazmir (4, 0, 35, 7.69, 1.95) should not be taking up space on more than 80% of leagues’ rosters when there are plenty of quality players still sitting out there being unused.

So, can you upgrade your bottom-dwelling team?

The answer depends on the type of league in which you play. If you are in a mixed league with 10 or fewer teams, this is an easy task. Drop the under-achieving players and snatch up the hotter players that fill those roles. It’s like shopping at Target during a store-wide sale with a $100 gift certificate – you’re going to find something at a reasonable price to take home and it won’t cost you a thing.

However, if you’re in an NL- or AL-only league (as I am), the task becomes much tougher. It’s also more difficult to decide whether to cut a player. While 6% of owners have determined that they can safely drop Manny Ramirez while he serves out his suspension, someone like me doesn’t have that luxury. So he sits on the pine, waiting for July 3 to roll around.

Fortunately, this is the time of the year where real baseball managers are hitting the same frustration levels that fantasy baseball owners have reached. Under-performing players are benched, demoted or released, and up-and-comers are called up from Triple-A or are bumped from a reserve role into the starting lineup. This is where persistence pays off. Constantly check Websites (especially this one) for player updates and roster changes. Use the “last month” and “last week” filters to look for a trend of a player on the rise – you might get a short-term shot in the arm. Scan the waiver wire for call-ups.

You see, you might have had designs on taking the head cheerleader to the prom, but just because she’s “washing her hair,” there’s no reason you can’t find another date who’s true prom queen material. So hit the panic button, dump the dead weight and start carefully rebuilding your team – it might be just a couple key players, but believe me, it could pay off. Now is the time in which seasons are won.

Written by Drew Volturo · Filed Under Draft Strategy, Miscellaneous | Leave a Comment 

Conquering the Autodraft: A Real Experiment in Fantasy.. (Part V)

May 31, 2009

To refresh your memory, this experiment began before the season began.  We wanted to see if an autodrafted team that was far from a winner on its own could be transformed into a winner with creative roster management and fre agent/waiver wire maneuvering.  Since we last tuned in to our autodrafted team a lot has changed.  Here is our new lineup with some itemized changes/transactions that have occurred and in-depth analysis to follow:

C. Matt Wieters (went with a bevy of short term options until his call to the Bigs – IRod, Iannetta, Varitek, etc.)

1B. Prince Fielder

2B. Kelly Johnson

SS. Troy Tulowitzki

3B. David Wright

OF. Curtis Granderson

OF. Corey Hart

OF. Shane Victorino

UT. Lance Berkman

 

SP. Cliff Lee

SP. Francisco Liriano (dropped Brett Myers)

RP. Scott Downs

RP. Hideki Okajima (picked up last week)

RP. Fernando Rodney

RP. Brian Wilson

RP. Carlos Marmol (picked up when he had a a 5.00+ ERA and abysmal WHIP)

Bench – Jered Weaver, David Price, Matt Cain, John Lackey, Clay Kershaw

DL – Chris Iannetta

 

Analysis:

I think we had a  contending team before dropping Myers for Liriano and picking up Iannetta onto our DL as Matt Wieters insurance, but now, it will hopefully be a matter of time.  We are presently hovering around fifth place in the rankings, with lots of potential rise behind those numbers.  There are still weaknesses, and no one is under the impression that Kelly Johnson or Iannetta/Wieters are the best at their respective positions, but the tranformation of our autodrafted team is nearly complete. 

Compared to the team that we autodrafted, and since the first article on March 17th regarding the autodraft experiment, our team has undergone a facelift.  This was our original roster:

C. Matt Wieters

1B. Prince Fielder

2B. Kelly Johnson

SS. Troy Tulowitzki

3B. David Wright

OF. Corey Hart

OF. Curtis Granderson

OF. Shane Victorino

UT. Lance Berkman

 

SP. John Lackey

SP. Cliff Lee

SP. Brett Myers

SP. Clay Kershaw

SP. Matt Cain

SP. John Maine

RP. Brian Wilson

RP. Fernando Rodney

Bench – Adam LaRoche, Justin Upton, Ryan Theriot

By the way, our catching platoon preceding Wieters yielded 5 homers, 13 RBI, and 0 SB’s.  If Johnson continues to recover after his miserable start, Wieters hits a fraction of his potential, Iannetta returns to form, and our whiff-friendly pitching staff that is now very relief-heavy continues to perform while staying budgeted as far as the league’s innings-pitched limit, then we will ascend quickly.  Until then we will statistically chip away at our competition as our formerly-autodrafted team rises to greatness.  Tune in for the next installment of “Conquering the Autodraft..”

Written by Russell Sandman · Filed Under Roster Management | Leave a Comment