The Return Of The Stolen Base

May 6, 2009

Ever since the base stealing dynamos on the St. Cardinals terrorized opposing catchers in the 1980’s, the stolen base has been in sharp decline.  In the 1990’s small ball was replaced by long ball.  Perhaps best personified by the commercial, “Chicks dig the long ball,” the home run has become the prime attraction and marquee event at baseball games. 

Today, it is not uncommon to find teams with five or more players that have 20+ home run power.  Take the Philadelphia Phillies for example.  Jimmy Rollins, Jayson Werth, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Raul Ibanez, and Pedro Feliz all have 20+ homer power.  Compare that to the 1985 Cardinals that lost in the World Series to the Royals.  Jack Clark led that team with 22 homers.  The player with the next highest was Andy Van Slyke with 13!   True, the 1985 Cardinals were designed to slap the ball and run, (partly because of the spacious confines of Busch Stadium) but outside of the three, four, and five spots of the lineup, most other teams didn’t have anyone that could hit over 20 homers.  The 1985 Mets team that finished 2nd place to the Cardinals are a good example; only three players on that team hit over 20 homers:  George Foster, Darryl Strawberry, and Gary Carter.

The Cardinals of the 1980’s were the quintessential small ball team.  Led by scrappy players like Willie McGee, Vince Coleman, Tommy Herr, Andy Van Slyke, Terry Pendleton, and Ozzie Smith, the Cardinals had five players with 30 or more steals (plus Pendleton who had 17 steals and Lonnie Smith who had 12).  Incredibly, Coleman had over 100 stolen bases even though his on-base percentage was an abysmal .320!

With the advent of smaller ballparks and *cough* *cough* steroids *cough* *cough*, teams opted to load up on home run players and ditch the small ball tactics of the 80’s.  Starting with guys like Cecil Fielder, Barry Bonds, Ken Griffey Jr., Frank Thomas, Albert Belle, and Juan Gonzalez, it became fairly common for players to exceed 40 homers in a season.  Even slap hitters like Steve Finley and Luis Gonzalez became 30+ homer threats.  The stolen base seemed as dead as the multi-inning closer. 

But there is some evidence that the stolen base is making a comeback.  Indeed, the stolen base recently garnered the attention of all fantasy baseball managers because of three incredible individual performances.  First, on April 26, Boston Red Sox speedster Jacoby Ellsbury stole home against the rival New York Yankees.   Then, on the following day, Dexter Fowler of the Colorado Rockies stole 5 bases in a game against the San Diego Padres (including two steals of third base).  Not to be outdone, on May 3 Carl Crawford of the Tampa Bay Rays tied the modern major league record with 6 stolen bases in a game.  Crawford now has 20 steals and is on pace for 112.  Ellsbury has 15 and is on pace for 90.  Even 35-year-old Bobby Abreu, who hasn’t stolen over 30 bases since 2006, already has 11 steals and is on pace for 71.

The trend is further evidnced by the number of players that have stolen 20 bases or more in a season.  Take a look at these stats:

Year            # of Players With 20+ Steals

2004          24

2005          24

2006          33

2007          40

2008          37

At higher stolen base levels the statistics also show a marked change.  In 2004, only 12 players stole 30 or more bases compared to 16 in 2008.  Likewise, only 5 players stole over 40 in 2004 compared to 9 in 2008. 

What accounts for the change?  Theories abound.  Some say more restrictive drug testing following the steroids scandal has led to an overall power reduction, and a renewed reliance on the stolen base.  Others say it is more economical to pursue speedsters.  Still others say it is merely a matter of timing that players like Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes, and Carl Crawford all matured about the same time.  Whatever the reason, the return of the stolen base has important consequences for your fantasy baseball team. 

First, basic economics tells us that an increase in the stolen base supply will lower their value.  Players that steal 40+ bases still retain their value because there are only a few guys that can reach such high production, but all those players that steal 15-25 bases should be devalued (unless, of course, they are useful in other categories like Avg and HR).   They are now a dime a dozen. 

Second, when evaluating your team you should keep in mind that what used to be a lot of stolen bases may no longer be enough to ensure that your team finishes at the top of the category.  For instance, in the past having Jose Reyes and one other 20+ stolen base player in an NL-only league may have been enough to garner a 7 or higher in steals (assuming a 10 team league).  But now, that may not be enough; you may need two or three base stealing threats in addition to Reyes. 

Third, players that steal a lot of bags may be more likely to see an increase in their runs scored.  It stands to reason that if the player is standing on second or third base he is more likely to score than if he stays on first base without stealing.   

I think the return of the stolen base is an exciting development for baseball.  Small ball and fundamental baseball is as American as apple pie.  But the return of the steal also means that you should recalibrate your fantasy baseball strategy so that your team can compete in the post-steroid era.

Written by Evan Rosen · Filed Under Blog, Roster Management | 1 Comment