Time to Hit the Panic Button?
May 31, 2009
Let the dumping begin.
Much like high school, fantasy baseball begins each year with great expectations. And much like high school, fantasy baseball owners rarely end up going to prom with their dream date.
In the preseason, we all draft who we think is going to propel us to victory. We scrutinize and agonize over statistics, projections and that “X-factor,” trying to determine who are the best pieces to this puzzle. Sometimes, those players we draft are exactly what we wanted. Other times, we’re left scratching our heads and wondering what exactly we did to deserve this cruel prank of an unproductive third-round draft pick.
For each flop we draft, we must carefully weigh whether it is better to drop said player and pick up a lesser-known commodity, or whether we should wait it out in the hopes that they come around. For me, I try to use the two-month rule before hitting the “panic button.” And the time to hit that button is now.
By June 1, you’ve hopefully gotten a fair sample of what a player is going to (or not going to) produce that season. You can safely drop a pitcher with an ERA higher than your class valedictorian’s GPA. You can cast aside a batter whose batting average makes that Mendoza guy look like an All-Star. If you’re not where you want to be in the standings, it’s time to look to make some wholesale changes.
And yet in Yahoo! Fantasy Baseball, 81% of the leagues have a team “boasting” the woeful David Ortiz (.185, 1 HR, 18 RBI, 0 SB, 15 R). In nearly two-thirds of the leagues, Garrett Atkins (.193, 3, 17, 0, 17) is unavailable because he’s already nestled on someone’s roster. And Brandon Morrow (0 W, 6 Sv, 18 K, 7.63 ERA, 2.02 WHIP) is taken in just over half (53%) of leagues.
Meanwhile, there are perfectly capable players that are still available in more than half of leagues out there: Luke Scott (.333, 11 HR, 29 RBI, 0 SB, 21 R), owned in 39% of leagues, John Baker (.268, 6, 19, 0, 26), a producing catcher only owned in 38% of leagues, Joel Pineiro (5 W, 0 Sv, 25 K, 3.86 ERA, 1.24 WHIP), 20%, and Scott Hairston (.321, 6 HR, 21 RBI, 5 SB, 17 R), at 11%, a great steal in NL-only leagues.
We’ve reached the point in the season where a name should not be enough for an owner to keep a player on their roster. Ortiz, Vlad Guerrero (.226, 1, 3, 0, 4), Francisco Liriano (2 W, 0 Sv, 50 K, 6.60 ERA, 1.62 WHIP) and Scott Kazmir (4, 0, 35, 7.69, 1.95) should not be taking up space on more than 80% of leagues’ rosters when there are plenty of quality players still sitting out there being unused.
So, can you upgrade your bottom-dwelling team?
The answer depends on the type of league in which you play. If you are in a mixed league with 10 or fewer teams, this is an easy task. Drop the under-achieving players and snatch up the hotter players that fill those roles. It’s like shopping at Target during a store-wide sale with a $100 gift certificate – you’re going to find something at a reasonable price to take home and it won’t cost you a thing.
However, if you’re in an NL- or AL-only league (as I am), the task becomes much tougher. It’s also more difficult to decide whether to cut a player. While 6% of owners have determined that they can safely drop Manny Ramirez while he serves out his suspension, someone like me doesn’t have that luxury. So he sits on the pine, waiting for July 3 to roll around.
Fortunately, this is the time of the year where real baseball managers are hitting the same frustration levels that fantasy baseball owners have reached. Under-performing players are benched, demoted or released, and up-and-comers are called up from Triple-A or are bumped from a reserve role into the starting lineup. This is where persistence pays off. Constantly check Websites (especially this one) for player updates and roster changes. Use the “last month” and “last week” filters to look for a trend of a player on the rise – you might get a short-term shot in the arm. Scan the waiver wire for call-ups.
You see, you might have had designs on taking the head cheerleader to the prom, but just because she’s “washing her hair,” there’s no reason you can’t find another date who’s true prom queen material. So hit the panic button, dump the dead weight and start carefully rebuilding your team – it might be just a couple key players, but believe me, it could pay off. Now is the time in which seasons are won.
Conquering the Autodraft: A Real Experiment in Fantasy.. (Part V)
May 31, 2009
To refresh your memory, this experiment began before the season began. We wanted to see if an autodrafted team that was far from a winner on its own could be transformed into a winner with creative roster management and fre agent/waiver wire maneuvering. Since we last tuned in to our autodrafted team a lot has changed. Here is our new lineup with some itemized changes/transactions that have occurred and in-depth analysis to follow:
C. Matt Wieters (went with a bevy of short term options until his call to the Bigs – IRod, Iannetta, Varitek, etc.)
1B. Prince Fielder
2B. Kelly Johnson
SS. Troy Tulowitzki
3B. David Wright
OF. Curtis Granderson
OF. Corey Hart
OF. Shane Victorino
UT. Lance Berkman
SP. Cliff Lee
SP. Francisco Liriano (dropped Brett Myers)
RP. Scott Downs
RP. Hideki Okajima (picked up last week)
RP. Fernando Rodney
RP. Brian Wilson
RP. Carlos Marmol (picked up when he had a a 5.00+ ERA and abysmal WHIP)
Bench – Jered Weaver, David Price, Matt Cain, John Lackey, Clay Kershaw
DL – Chris Iannetta
Analysis:
I think we had a contending team before dropping Myers for Liriano and picking up Iannetta onto our DL as Matt Wieters insurance, but now, it will hopefully be a matter of time. We are presently hovering around fifth place in the rankings, with lots of potential rise behind those numbers. There are still weaknesses, and no one is under the impression that Kelly Johnson or Iannetta/Wieters are the best at their respective positions, but the tranformation of our autodrafted team is nearly complete.
Compared to the team that we autodrafted, and since the first article on March 17th regarding the autodraft experiment, our team has undergone a facelift. This was our original roster:
C. Matt Wieters
1B. Prince Fielder
2B. Kelly Johnson
SS. Troy Tulowitzki
3B. David Wright
OF. Corey Hart
OF. Curtis Granderson
OF. Shane Victorino
UT. Lance Berkman
SP. John Lackey
SP. Cliff Lee
SP. Brett Myers
SP. Clay Kershaw
SP. Matt Cain
SP. John Maine
RP. Brian Wilson
RP. Fernando Rodney
Bench – Adam LaRoche, Justin Upton, Ryan Theriot
By the way, our catching platoon preceding Wieters yielded 5 homers, 13 RBI, and 0 SB’s. If Johnson continues to recover after his miserable start, Wieters hits a fraction of his potential, Iannetta returns to form, and our whiff-friendly pitching staff that is now very relief-heavy continues to perform while staying budgeted as far as the league’s innings-pitched limit, then we will ascend quickly. Until then we will statistically chip away at our competition as our formerly-autodrafted team rises to greatness. Tune in for the next installment of “Conquering the Autodraft..”
NL Prospect Roundup
May 30, 2009
Each week we review how the National League’s top prospects are performing in the minor leagues. You’ll notice that many of the league’s top fantasy baseball prospects, including Josh Vitters, Tommy Hanson, Dominic Brown, and Madison Bumgarner, are performing at a high level as expected. If there are prospects you would like me to report on that are not on this list, please respond in the comments section and I will try to incorporate them in future editions. Note that all stats listed below are courtesy of www.minorleaguebaseball.com.
Here’s how the top NL prospects are doing as of May 30, 2009:
1. Josh Vitters, 3B, CHI – .351 BA, 11 HR, 28 RBI, 2 SB, .382 OBP%, .601 SLG% in 168 AB
2. Tommy Hanson, RHP, ATL – 3W, 1.48 ERA, 60.2 IP, 35 H, 17 BB, 82 K’s, .164 BAA
3. Dominic Brown, OF, PHI – .331 BA, 6 HR, 33 RBI, 12 SB, .411 OBP%, .563 SLG% in 151 AB
4. Yonder Alonso, 1B, CIN – .296 BA, 7 HR, 37 RBI, 0 SB, .373 OBP%, .506 SLG% in 162 AB
5. Jason Castro, C, HOU – .295 BA, 5 HR, 36 RBI, 1 SB, .379 OBP%, .489 SLG% in 176 AB
6. Alcides Escobar, SS, MIL – .290 BA, 2 Hr, 14 RBI, 21 SB, .336 OBP%, .385 SLG% in 200 AB
7. Pedro Alvarez, 3B, PIT – .237 BA, 9 HR, 40 RBI, 1 SB, .338 OBP%, .456 SLG% in 169 AB
8. Jarrod Parker, RHP, ARI – 4 W, 2.20 ERA, 49 IP, 49 H, 20 BB, 53 K’s, .262 BAA
9. Andrew Lambo, OF, LAD – .267 BA, 4 HR, 16 RBI, 2 SB, .323 OBP%, .428 SLG% in 180 AB
10. Kyle Blanks, 1B, SD – .260 BA, 9 HR, 27 RBI, 0 SB, .362 OBP%, .446 SLG% in 177 AB
11. Madison Bumgarner, RHP, SF – 7 W, 1.14 ERA, 47.1 IP, 35 H, 10 BB, 47 K’s, .205 BAA
12. Buster Posey, C, SF – .301 BA, 8 HR, 38 RBI, 4 SB, .376 OBP%, .511 SLG% in 176 AB
13. Jason Heyward, OF, ATL – .295 BA, 9 HR, 22 RBI, 4 SB, .373 OBP%, .561 SLG% in 139 AB
14. Logan Morrison, 1B, FL – .333 BA, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 0 SB, .556 OBP%, 1.167 SLG% in 6 AB
15. Andrew McCutchen, OF, PIT – .295 BA, 3 HR, 19 RBI, 10 SB, .352 OBP%, .481 SLG% in 183 AB
16. Angel Villalona, 1B, SF – .301 BA, 7 HR, 26 RBI, 0 SB, .337 OBP%, .466 SLG% in 176 AB
17. Tim Alderson, RHP, SF – 3 W, 3.20 ERA, 45 IP, 49 H, 4 BB, 41 K’s, .275 BAA
18. Jhoylys Chacin, RHP, COL – 3 W, 3.49 ERA, 49 IP, 44 H, 19 BB, 43 K’s, .235 BAA
19. Todd Frazier, SS/3B, CIN – .303 BA, 2 HR, 23 RBI, 4 SB, .340 OBP%, .449 SLG% in 178 AB
20. Jason Donald, SS, PHI – .234 BA, 1 HR, 15 RBI, 4 SB, .299 OBP%, .337 SLG% in 175 AB
21. Brett Wallace, 3B, STL – .283 BA, 6 HR, 20 RBI, 0 SB, .378 OBP%, .422 SLG% in 180 AB
22. Fernando Martinez, OF, NYM – .291 BA, 8 HR, 28 RBI, 2 SB, .337 OBP%, .552 SLG% in 165 AB (currently in the majors)
h2h Corner ~ Katy Perry All-Stars VI
May 28, 2009
Welcome to the latest installment of the weekly hot and cold fantasy trends update. Thinking about these trends, thankfully, reminds me of that infectious pop vixen, Katy Perry. “Hot N Cold” remains one of my favorite songs — I simply run faster when it is playing. Weird, I know, but I’m fast. Read more
In Case You Missed It . . .
May 28, 2009
Each week I highlight recent performances that you may have missed. These stories include interesting stats and trends, major league debuts, recent rehab starts, minor league performances, hot/cold streaks, and so on. My ultimate goal is to help you identify players and trends that you may not have noticed. Last week I wrote about Justin Verlander, Jay Bruce, Aaron Hill, Dontrelle Willis and Ross Detwiler.
Here’s what you may have missed this week:
1. Joe Mauer had an incredible week, hitting .500 with 4 homers and 13 rbi’s over the past seven days.
2. Nelson Cruz, after slumping in the early part of the season, hit .462 with 5 hr, 10 RBI and 5 sb in the past week.
3. Mark Reynolds has been on a tear, hitting .344 with 4 homers, 10 RBi’s and an unexpected 6 sb in the past week. Not surprising is that he led the majors in strikeouts last week.
4. Adam Wainwright has 2 wins, a 1.15 ERA and 16 K’s in 15.2 IP over the past seven days.
5. Max Scherzer has 20 K’s in his last 13 IP, and has let up only 12 hits and 2 walks. For the season, he has a 3.38 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 2 wins, and 53 K’s in 50.2 IP.
6. Phil Hughes is showing signs of the talent that caused scouts to salivate over him, notching 2 wins, 15 K’s and a 2.08 ERA over his last 13 IP.
7. Chris Carpenter is finally off the DL and immediately returned to elite status with a 0.00 ERA in 13 IP. Equally impressive is that he’s only let up 5 hits and 2 walks, while striking out 14.
8. Trevor Hoffman still has a 0.00 ERA.
9. Brad Lidge blew 2 more saves this week. In total, there were 24 blown saves in the majors over the past 7 days.
10. Emilio Bonifacio generated a ton of fantasy baseball hype during the first week of the season, but he’s now hitting .254 with 1 homer, 11 RBI’s and 9 SB. Four of his nine steals came in the first three days of the season.
11. Carl Crawford has 30 steals — 5 more than he had all of last season.
12. David Wright is on pace for 11 homers this season — 22 less than he had all of last season.
13. Jason Bartlett is pretending to be a hall of famer, hitting .373 with 7 homers, 30 RBI’s, and 14 steals this season.
14. Adam Jones is a guy many of us predicted to have a good year, but he’s exceeding even our lofty expectations. He’s currently hitting .359 with 11 homers, 36 RBI’s, and 4 steals.
15. Russell Branyon is somehow hitting .320 with 11 homers. The power is legit, the average is not.
16. Jordan Schafer, the rookie outfielder on the Braves, is fourth in the majors for strikeouts with 56 in 149 at-bats. He’s hitting .208, but has still managed a .324 OBP%.
17. BJ Upton is hitting .189 with 2 homers and 9 RBI’s.
18. Chris Volstad is having an impressive sophomore season. He has 4 wins, a 3.69 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 51 K”s in 61 IP.
19. Edwin Jackson, Zach Duke, Kevin Millwood, Randy Wolf, and Joel Pineiro have been black listed by many fantasy baseball managers for several years now, but are all having solid campaigns thus far in 2009.
20. Johnny Cueto has the third best WHIP among starting pitchers at 1.04.
Jim Leyland is the (Fantasy) Devil
May 27, 2009
I hate Jim Leyland. Not only do I think he’s a terrible manager – (check his history – http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Leyland – he’s only won with stacked teams and as soon as his amazing teams lose their stars, his teams slide into mediocrity, and then he quits), but he is a fantasy baseball manager’s nightmare. To wit, I give you examples from this year’s Tigers team:
Josh Anderson, OF. The Tigers traded for Anderson in spring training, and he made the team largely on his ability to get on base and steal bases. He had 4 starts through the first 3 weeks of the season, then started 8 of 9 games – getting hits in all but two and stealing 4 bases. On May 5, to jump start their struggling offense, Leyland puts Anderson in the leadoff spot, and he responds with 2 hits and a run, and the Tigers win 9-0. Leyland praises the spark Anderson provides at the top of the lineup…and promptly parks his butt on the bench for the next 12 days. He seems to start 2 out of every 5 days, but I am yet to figure out a pattern – he plays against righties, but not all righties, and often enters the game as a late-inning replacement, killing his fantasy value. and then there’s days like today, when he goes 4 for 5 with a run, an rbi, an a stolen base. Drives you nuts.
Clete Thomas, OF – Clete was called up on that same fateful May 5, and promptly hit in the third spot fifteen straight games. Then he hits a rough spot, and Leyland sits him against a lefty, then puts him back to 3rd, then sits him, then hits him 7th, then sits him against a righty. For awhile there, it looked like Clete had value in AL-only leagues at least, hitting in front of Miguel Cabrera, but now it looks like Leyland sees Clete as nothing more than one of the many outfielders he can run out there on any given day. He has no power or speed, but does a good job of getting on base. Ignore him in most leagues.
Adam Everett, SS – Everett has been on a tear in May – he’s hitting .345 with 11 rbi and 3 steals, and playing his normal excellent shortstop. Except Leyland is desperate to get Ramon Santiago in the lineup, so instead of just having Santiago spell Placido Polanco, he has him spelling Polanco and Everett, meaning that even if Everett goes 3 for 3 with 2 runs and an rbi, he gets sit down for Santiago 2 days later, against another righthanded starter. Everett seems to be the everyday starter, but its still no less maddening when he plays 5 days a week and there is no rhyme or reason to when he sits. I’d give him a look in an AL-only league if you’re weak at shortstop.
Ramon Santiago, SS/2B – yes, this cuts both ways. That same day that Everett went 3 for 3, Santiago went 4 for 4 with a homer, 3 runs and 4 rbi, raising his average to .352 and earns himself a start the next game, relegating Everett to the bench. Leyland says he wants to get Santiago in there more often, and Ramon goes 1 for 4 that night. Not surprisingly, Leyland sits him down and Ramon plays 3 times over the next 9 days, again with no rhyme or reason why. He’s not worth owning.
Ryan Raburn, 2b/OF – Raburn may be the most maddening of all. He had made 7 starts the first 5 weeks of the season, and then on May 15, hits a grand slam and drives in 5 runs. May 16, he gets 2 hits, 2 runs, 3 rbi and another homer. And promptly gets put back on the bench for 3 games. May 20, he starts, gets 2 hits – including another home run – and gets pinch hit for in the 8th inning – by none other than Clete Thomas (incidentally, Josh Anderson stole 2 bases that night – his first two since Leyland started screwing with his playing time). Since then Raburn has two starts in 7 games, including today where – that’s right – he had 2 hits, a run and an rbi.
Wilkin Ramirez, OF – When Magglio Ordonez went on the personal leave list, the Tigers called up their top prospect Wilkin Ramirez from Toledo. Ramirez was hitting .300 at the time, with 27 runs, 5 home runs and 17 steals at AAA, and is expected to be a big part of their future. So the Tigers call him up Wednesday May 20, Leyland bats him 3rd, and he goes 1 for 3 with his first major league home run. Leyland then sits his butt on the bench for the next 2 days until they send him back down when Magglio returns. He was up for such a short time that by the time he cleared waivers on Yahoo leagues, he was back in the minors. If you’re in a keeper league and you’ve got an extra roster spot to stash him, he may be worth the flier; if not, don’t bother.
Now, if you’ve got Granderson, Polanco, Cabrera, Inge or Laird, you’re guaranteed 90% of the playing time. But if you’ve got any of the guys listed above, or Jeff Larish or Marcus Thames, I’m sorry, you’re subject to the devil. He kills the stability of your lineup, kills your trade value, and kills your ability to find real steals on the waiver wire.
And considering that in my AL-only league, I have owned no fewer 4 of the guys listed above, I hate Jim Leyland.
h2h Corner ~ Red Light District, the Closer Carousel
May 27, 2009
Closers do most of their work late at night, often after most upstanding fantasy managers have gone to bed. They necessitate early checking of box scores and Fantasy Baseball 101 to see if they secured the win for the home team. They are your average, everyday closers. Read more
Mark Reynolds’ Journey Across the Diamond: Temp to Perm?
May 27, 2009
The man who set baseball single season strikeout record last season with a whopping 204 whiffs looks to be moving across the diamond (for now) to make room for 28 year old pseudoprospect Ryan Roberts at the hot corner. It appears that Diamondbacks’ manager Bob Melvin has officially lost patience with the anemic hitting of former offensive rock Chad Tracy at first, third, or much of anyplace else. Tracy is below the Mendoza line at a meager .189 with 3 homers and 13 RBI in 111 at bats, while Reynolds has 13 homers, 10 steals, and a .264 average (with 61 K’s).
What is the future of this round robin of corner infielders? The D-backs have Tracy, Jackson, Reynolds, and Ryan Roberts? It is fair to say that when Conor Jackson returns, he will be given a shot at an everyday job. That means that in order for this confusion to persist, Roberts must hit and keep hitting. Otherwise, expect a return to normalcy soon in Arizona, which will likely mean Reynolds at third, Jackson at first or in left field, and Roberts back to quadtruple A status – but you never know! Watch this one unfold and be ready to pounce on Roberts should he continue to get on base and steal at his present clip.
Matt Wieters, in the Majors!
May 26, 2009
Before you read anything else, if for some insane reason Matt Wieters is available in your league, go pick him up. Now.
Orioles catcher Matt Wieters and Rays Pitcher David Price are the top 2 prospects in baseball – Price is back up in the majors, starting for the Rays, and Orioles GM Andy MacPhail announced today that Wieters will make his debut this Friday, at home against Dontrelle Willis and the Tigers. Expectations – particularly among Orioles fans – are incredibly high; they’re thinking he’s the second coming of Mike Piazza.
So what can we expect from Mr. Wieters? I’m going with a batting average around 280-290, 15 home runs, 50-60 rbi and 50-60 runs. I think he is THAT good, and will hit very well in that Orioles lineup.
So as I said, Go Grab Him Now. Please.
Fernando Martinez Called Up
May 26, 2009
The New York Post is reporting that the Mets have called up top prospect Fernando Martinez from the minors to replace injured players Jose Reyes and Ryan Church. According to the Post, Martinez is starting tonight’s game in the outfield and will bat sixth. With Carlos Beltran day-to-day, and Church on the DL, expect Martinez to get a bunch of starts in the next week or two.
As I reported on May 14, Martinez suffered through a few injury-plagued seasons in the minors. As a result, he lacks the gaudy stats of other top prospects, but few doubt his potential. Still incredibly young at 20, Martinez has generated so much hype over the past few years that you could form a lake from all the scouts’ drool. He is a five tool player and is projected to become a perennial all-star. In AAA this year he was hitting .291 with 8 homers, 28 RBI’s and 25 extra base hits.
Nonetheless, fantasy baseball expectations for Martinez should be toned down this year. Unless he hits the cover off the ball, his time in the majors is limited and he will be sent back down after Reyes and Church come off the DL. The Mets want to get his feet wet and slowly adjust him to the majors. Yet, other than Carlos Beltran, the Mets are relying on a makeshift outfield of Ryan Church, Daniel Murphy, Gary Sheffield, Fernando Tatis, and Angel Pagan — not exactly awe inspiring for a pennant contender. If Martinez starts hitting well right away he could stay in the majors longer than expected. But few 20 year olds are able to come up and dominate.
Our advice: Pick him up immediately if you are in a keeper league and stash him for years to come. You should also pick him up if you are in a non-keeper league and need an outfielder or utility spot who will get regular playing time over the next week or two. But tamper expectations and don’t expect another Ryan Braun — at least, not this year.
Did You Know…?
Jacoby Ellsbury had more SBs than Brian Roberts and Elvis Andrus combined?
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