Is Joel Pineiro This Year’s John Burkett?

April 28, 2009

From 1990 to 1994 John Burkett was a solid starting pitcher for the San Francisco Giants.  His best year came in 1993 when he went 22-7 with a 3.65 ERA and 1.14 WHIP.  In each of the other years during that period, Burkett’s ERA hovered in the upper 3’s, with solid WHIP’s and double-digit wins. 

Burkett’s time as a reliable fantasy baseball starter came to a quick end.  He had a few mediocre years from 1995 to 1997 , but soon entered into the realm of fantasy baseball oblivion.  In 1998, Burkett got bludgeoned to the tune of a 5.68 ERA.  If you listen hard enough you can still hear fantasy owners cursing his name.  Unfortunately, managers who expected a come-back year in 1999 were equally disappointed as Burkett finished the season with a 5.62 ERA and 1.56 WHIP.  Likewise, in 2000, Burkett had a miserable season, finishing with a 4.89 ERA and 1.58 WHIP.  One would think Burkett’s time as a major leaguer was at its end after three consecutive atrocious seasons. 

To the surprise of everyone – maybe even including Burkett himself – he had a terrific year in 2001.  Fantasy baseball teams lucky enough to draft (or pickup) Burkett that year were rewarded with 12 wins, a 3.03 ERA, 187 K’s, and a 1.17 WHIP.  Burkett reverted to 1998-2000 form in 2002, but for that one year, 2001, he gave fantasy managers something to smile about. 

Which leads us to the question posed in the title of this post: is Joel Pineiro this year’s John Burkett?

From 2001 to 2003 Pineiro was at the top of his game and considered by many to be one of the best and most promising young arms in the game.  In 2001, Pineiro tossed 75.1 innings and finished with a 2.03 ERA and 0.94 WHIP.  In a larger sample size in 2002 season, Pineiro won 14 games and wound up with a 3.24 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in 194.1 innings pitched.  Pineiro’s 2003 season was just as stellar.  In that season, Pineiro won 16 games and finished with a 3.78 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. 

Like Burkett, Pineiro followed his success with a precipitous decline.  From 2004 to 2008 Pineiro’s seasons were marred by terrible ERA’s, atrocious WHIP’s, and an exceedingly high BAA.  In that five year span he never won more than eight games in a season.  His ERA’s were: 4.67, 5.62, 6.36, 4.33 (in only 97.2 IP), and 5.15.  Yikes.  Jake Peavy he was not. 

Fast forward to 2009 and Pineiro is 4-0 with a 3.76 ERA and 1.37 WHIP.  Pineiro credits his fast start to his transition to a sinker-ball pitcher.  Fantasy baseball managers around the country are rushing to pick him up to bolster their team’s wins and starting staff.  Big mistake.  Pineiro is not this year’s John Burkett.  

Although Pineiro has four wins and superficially appears to be dominating National League batters, a closer examination shows that he is due for a good shelling or two.  Opposing hitters are batting .306 against Pineiro.  He has let up more hits than innings pitched and is striking out barely two batters per nine innings.  He is also injury-prone, having spent time on the disabled list in 2004, 2005, 2007, and 2008.

In fairness, Pineiro’s sinker does appear to be helping him as he has only let up one home run in 26.1 innings of work, far below the 22 homer pace he averaged from 2004-2006.  While his sinker may help keep the ball in the park, it is not exactly Derek Lowe or Brandon Webb quality.  We expect a mild improvement for Pineiro this year, but nowhere near Burkett’s impressive 3.03 ERA season, which was an anomaly.  Expect 11 wins, a 4.85 ERA and 1.40 WHIP.   Not the end of the world for a NL-only league, but not good either.

Written by Evan Rosen · Filed Under Blog, Player News | 1 Comment 

Hanrahan Out!

April 28, 2009

Three out of five isn’t bad – unless of course the three are blown saves in five save opportunities.  But, that has been he story of Joel Hanrahan’s 2009 season.  After another crushing, late-inning loss on Monday, Hanrahan was removed as closer for Washington by manager Manny Acta. So ends the experiment that began in ‘08 after the loss of Chad Cordero.  

Acta has said that he plans to use a committee to close out games until an heir-apparent emerges.  Current closer candidates include Julian Tavarez, Joe Beimel (DL), Kip Wells (yes, that one), and Saul Rivera.  Unfortunately no one closer-would-be seems a stronger candidate than any other, and perhaps none more or less passable than Hanrahan himself.  We expect more late-inning collapses as the drama in DC unfolds.  Tune in and watch the waiver wire like a hawk and the next mediocre Nationals closer candidate may be your just reward!

Written by Russell Sandman · Filed Under Articles | 2 Comments