Jordan Zimmerman is 2-0

April 27, 2009

Rookie phenom Jordan Zimmerman won his second major league game in as many starts yesterday against the Mets.  Zimmerman combined a 95-mph fastball with sharp off-speed pitches to keep the Mets off-balance.  He even struck out Mets slugger, David Wright, three times.  In total, Zimmerman tossed 5.1 innings, letting up one earned run, six hits, two walks, and striking out five.  This was somewhat reminiscent of his major league debut six days earlier, when he pitched six innings and let up two earned runs, while walking one batter and striking out three.  So far this year, Zimmerman has a 2.38 ERA and 1.32 WHIP.

It is rare for a rookie pitcher to dominate in his first year.  Indeed, some of the best pitchers of the past generation struggled in their rookie season.  Players like John Smoltz, Greg Maddux, Jake Peavy, and Johan Santana.  Still, there are plenty of examples of immediate success (see C.C. Sabathia, Josh Beckett, A.J. Burnett, Cole Hamels, Tim Lincecum, etc.).  Given Zimmerman’s minor league pedigree and current situation, we see him doing relatively well this year.

Zimmerman has several things in his favor.  First, he plays in a pitcher-friendly stadium and, unless he struggles mightily, is virtually assured a spot in the rotation.  Second, his minor league stats are sick.  Last season, in 106.2 Double A innings pitched, Zimmerman has a 3.21 ERA, 103 K’s and let up only 89 hits and 39 walks.  He has also has 80.1 Single A innings pitched (split between 2007 and the first part of 2008) and his stats there are even more impressive.  There, he had a minuscule 2.12 ERA, 102 K’s, and let up only 60 hits.  Third, is his general demeanor and pitch quality.  He is “extremely polished”, throws strikes, has a hard fastball with good movement, and a solid arsenal of off-speed pitches.

Now for the downside.  Besides the obvious struggles that all rookie pitchers go through (adjusting to the talent of major little hitters, making the necessary adjustments, dealing with the pressure and media, etc.), Zimmerman has the misfortune of playing for the woeful Washington Nationals.  With a talented, yet unproven and inconsistent offense behind him, it is unlikely that Zimmerman will win a ton of games.  Plus, it doesn’t help that, playing in the NL East, he’ll have to face the offenses of the Mets, Phillies, Marlins and Braves — all of whom can hit the cover off the ball.

Still, playing in Washington, D.C. may be a blessing in disguise because the Nats can bring him along slowly.  Neither fans nor the media expect the Nats to do well this year, so Zimmerman’s performances will not be scrutinized the way they would had he been a Yankees, Mets, or Red Sox prospect.  Instead, Zimmerman can ease into the league without the pressure of a pennant race. 

We think Zimmerman will have his ups and downs this year, but 10-12 wins, a 3.90-4.25 ERA and ~1.35 WHIP is a reasonable expectation for 2009.  But we expect him to improve rapidly as he matures, which makes him a terrific player for keeper leagues.

Written by Evan Rosen · Filed Under Player News | Leave a Comment