Minor-ity Report: Spotlight on Buster Posey
April 22, 2009
Talk about a great baseball name – “Buster” Posey (in reality it’s Gerald Demp Posey, III). We are not discussing the 22 year old Posey because of his name, but rather because Buster Posey is one of those prospects that comes around very infrequently. A shortstop-turned-backstop, the already mature Posey has an innate sense of the strike zone, uncommon athleticism, and is thought to have the ability to hit for average and power on the Major League level. Before entering pro ball, all Posey did was blast 26 homers and 21 doubles in 257 college at bats (good for an astounding 1.445 OPS). After ending his NCAA career with a bang, and in 37 professional at bats in 2008, BP knocked one homer but again walked more than he whiffed while driving in 6 runs. No small feat for a catcher coming off of his first cup of coffee in pro ball. The sample size, however limited, has seemed predictive given Posey’s performance thus far during ‘09. At this time, Buster Posey has begun this season at a .400 clip with 3 homers and 12 RBI to go with a stolen base and again, more walks than whiffs.
With the Bengie Molina era coming to an end in San Francisco, we will not have to wait long Buster Posey. Posey is mincing opposing pitchers so far during the 2009 season, and if this feverish pitch keeps up we can imagine his first major league at-bat coming toward the end of the 2010 season. He should end 2009 in double A, but it is entirely possible that BP could be taking bp in San Francisco in early 2010.
h2h Corner ~ Katy Perry All-stars
April 22, 2009
I wanted to write a column about the early hot/cold trends and how they can engulf owners. So, naturally Katy Perry popped into my head. This is one of my favorite running songs — I simply run faster while this song is playing. Weird, I know, but I’m fast — I ran four miles in 26:44 last week. Anyway, the song’s lyrics seem apropos for fantasy wheelings-and-dealings and well pubescent girls and the pre-pubescent boys that love them:
You change your mind
Like a girl changes clothes
Yeah you, PMS
Like a bitch
I would know
And you over think
Always speak
Cryptically
I should know
That you’re no good for me
In actuality, this entire column is my way of allowing myself to view Katy Perry YouTube videos.
So who’s hot?
Kosuke Fukudome — I detailed Fukudome’s hot start already. I want to reiterate that I think this is a mirage. I wouldn’t be buying him. Ride his hot strike if you have someone to drop, but don’t drop or trade anyone of value thinking this will continue.
Endy Chavez — Chavez is a somewhat interesting player. With all the love going to speedsters Nyjer Morgan, Dexter Fowler and Emilio Bonifacio, Chavez provides some good low-cost speed numbers. He stole 32 bases in 2004, and has a 162-game average of 17 SBs. He has been off and running early this year. He wont kill your batting average (about .270) and won’t provide any power, but could score some runs. He’s not as bad as you think.
Nyjer Morgan — Speaking of speedsters, I like Morgan more than Bonifacio and probably more than Chavez. He does bat in a nice spot of the order and should get some scoring love. He has more HR upside than Chavez and perhaps more upside than Fukudome. I’d be willing to bet he hits around .290 -.300 and registers a .355 OBP.
Chris Duncan – Duncan was a major league sleeper going into the 2008 season, after he hit 21 HRs in 127 games in 2007. However, he suffered some injuries and played in only 76 games, while hitting only six HRs. Duncan has appeared in 13 games so far, already hit two HRs and knocked in 11 runs. He could bat .270 or so with 20-25 HRs. If you pick him up, make sure you don’t play him against lefties. He wont likely play and if he does he wont do anything productive. He is a career .215 batter against southpaws.
Asdrubal Cabrera – Cabrera was a supposed breakout candidate last year after he hit .283 in 43 games in 2007. However, last year he struggled to a line of .259 with six HRs 48 runs and 47 RBIs. He is off to a good batting average start and could score near 100 runs and knock in around 70. That isn’t bad from a middle infielder. He was a .287 hitter in the minor leagues with a .350 OBP, so he could be a .300 hitter in the majors. I wouldn’t be selling much to get him though.
Jason Kubel – There has been lots of talk in the fantasy community about Kubel surrounding whether he will get the ABs or be stuck in a platoon or hurt. He will easily hit .270 and has some power (likely 20-25 HRs). If he could manage to hit lefties at all, there would be some more upside. In 221 at bats against southpaws, Kubel has hit just .240 with six HRs.
Cody Ross — Ross hit the quietest 22 HRs last year, yet people are surprised he is hitting it again. He doesn’t have much track record, but neither did Brett Boone. I like him as a low-cost power source, but he could hurt your batting average so tread lightly.
Cause you’re hot then you’re cold
You’re yes then you’re no
You’re in then you’re out
You’re up then you’re down
You’re wrong when it’s right
That said, lets head to those cold salamanders that are likely owned in your league. These are the players who have started ice cold, alright, alright, alright, alright, alright, alright, alright, alright.
Justin Upton — I’m not fond of young players. More often than not it takes longer than expected to take the leap. So, I don’t trust Upton too much, the potential is there, but who knows when it will come. In non-keeper leagues, I wouldn’t hold tight, but monitor his stats as the weather gets warmer in the desert.
Geovany Soto – Soto is my best keeper. So far, he has been injured, so you cant hold his slow start against him. I wouldn’t drop or trade him at this point. While Soto is only batting .136, his OBP is .321, which isn’t great, but indicates he isn’t seeing the ball horribly.
Alexei Ramirez – I never loved Alexei – best case scenario is a 20-10 player and that’s not all that special from a middle infielder, especially where he was going in drafts. So far, he is hitting just .159, and, unlike Soto, isn’t taking many walks (and never will). His OBP is .213. It’s hard to steal those 20 bases when you can’t take four balls.
J.J. Hardy – I’m heavily invested in Hardy, so take my analysis as you will. That said, he is an incredibly streaky player. He has perennial back trouble, which could explain why he stinks in the cold weather. For his career, he is a .231 hitter with just a .297 OBP in March/April. He will spread his HRs out, so you don’t have to worry about that. You should hold tight and reap the rewards when he finishes strong.
David Ortiz – I think the 30+ HR hitting Ortiz is gone forever. He is 33, which is pretty old. He did manage 23 HRs in only 416 at bats last year, so he wont completely fall of the edge of the world. But if he isn’t hitting 30+ HRs, he doesn’t have as much value. If you are counting on anything better than a .280 average with 25 HRs and 90 RBIs, you’ll be sorry.
Stephen Drew – Drew, much like his teammate Justin Upton, has gotten off to a slow start. I touted Drew as a shortstop sleeper heading into the draft and I’m not backing off that now. As the temperature gets warmer, Drew heats up. He is a career .252, .257 and .227 hitter in March/April, May and June. He does heat up precipitously, going .282, .291 and .304 in July, August, and September/October. That said, he certainly doesn’t seem safer than a Jhonny Peralta at the moment. Keep an eye on him and wait for someone to get sick of his lack of production and grab him in mid-summer.
Brandon Phillips – What a Jekyll and Hyde season last year (.280/15/19 SBs in the first half, .225/6/4 SBs in the second half). Unfortunately Phillips has been more Jekyll than Hyde this year. If I owned him, I’d strongly consider selling at this moment. That is a lot of at bats of ineptitude – maybe pitchers have the book on him. He seems a far cry from a 20/20 threat.
Howie Kendrick – I’ve never loved Howie Kendrick, yet he is on my most important team. He is supposed to be a batting title contender as long as he stays healthy, yet he is hitting .196/.226/.294 this year. Still, he has a career line of .300/.327/.423 in almost 1,000 at bats. Kendrick is healthy now, so you have to give the hype a month to prove himself, but if he is hitting below .300 come May 1, I’m dropping him for someone who is contributing.
Troy Tulowitzki – Tulowitzki has gotten off to a nice power start with three HRs. That’s about all you can say about his start, though. I’d keep the faith on Tulowitzki. He is a poor first half player in general, and posts really horrible March/April statistics – in 229 at bats, he has six HRs, with a .197 BA and a .284 OBP. So, he’s actually ahead of that pace.
Blue label guys you ain’t worrying about: Jimmy Rollins, Prince Fielder, Matt Holliday, Alex Rios, Carlos Beltran. They will be fine. There is no reason to be concerned. Do not think of dropping them. If you try to trade them, insist upon value in the same round you drafted them or at a similar price you paid for them.
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Scouring The Boxscores
April 22, 2009
One of my favorite things about playing fantasy baseball is my nightly tour of all the box scores. I’m well aware that box scores are nothing more than rows and columns of numbers, but as a former mathematics major and current mathematics teacher that may be why I enjoy it so much. Numbers often tell more vivid stories than words.
I’m going to try something here. I’m going to check out each and every box score from Tuesday (the first day of this season consisting entirely of night games) night’s east coast action and comment on them as I look at all these numbers in real time. I honestly have no idea what I will be writing at this moment other than the teams’ names and scores. Any insights or observations I end up sharing with you all were entirely spontaneous.
INDIANS 8, ROYALS 7: God, Sidney Ponson sucks! Anybody foolish enough to roster that worthless tub of lard should have his fantasy baseball playing rights revoked. On to more pleasant and complimentary observations, David DeJesus seems to have officially snapped out of his early season slump with a 5 2 2 3 day including his second homer in as many days. In case you didn’t know already (yeah, right) Grady Sizemore is awesome, especially in leagues which play with OBP instead of BA. He hit his 5th homer of the young season, scoring two runs and driving in three. In 14 games played this season, Sizemore has 14 runs scored and 14 runs batted in. Gotta love the symmetry there.
YANKEES 5, ATHLETICS 3: Getting a 4 for 4 day out of any of your players is great. Getting one out of your catcher is extra special. All you fantasy players out there know exactly what I’m talking about. Kurt Suzuki, your owners across the nation salute you (I wish I were one of them).
ORIOLES 10, WHITE SOX 3: With a 4 for 4 day of his own, Nick Markakis is now hitting .389 on the young season, with 17 runs and 18 RBIs in 14 games. Take that Grady Sizemore. Seriously, who would you rather have on your fantasy team at this moment, Markakis or Sizemore? It’s very close, and I absolutely love both players, but I’d rather have Markakis, especially in a keeper league. Jose Contreras was every bit as bad as Sidney Ponson was on Tuesday. He is a better pitcher than Porky Pig Ponson, but that isn’t saying much. There isn’t much of an argument for having him on your fantasy roster at this time either.
NATIONALS 4, BRAVES 3: Kelly Johnson owners (myself included) continued their suffering as he had a 4 0 0 0 day, dropping his BA to .224 on the young season. Johnson is currently mired in a 3 for 27 slump. Shairon Martis won his second game in as many starts despite allowing 10 baserunners in 6 innings pitched. Maybe I’m just stating the obvious here but Johnson owners should stick with him. He’ll be fine. Also, if Martis is available in your free agent pool my advice is to let somebody else pick him up. I do expect him to eventually become a good pitcher, just not this season. He has only 4 strikeouts, against 7 walks, in 15.1 innings pitched thus far this season. There is no way he can continue to strike out so few batters without getting absolutely hammered. He’s only 22 years old. I doubt many 22 year old rookie pitchers have had truly impressive debut seasons, and I don’t think Martis will be the next.
PHILLIES 11, BREWERS 4: Ryan Braun broke out of his early season slump in a major way with the kind of day (5 2 5 4 with two bombs) that makes owners gleeful for days. Needless to say, I don’t own him in any of my leagues (but I wish I did; does that count?). Manny Parra was bad again and is now 0 – 3 on the young season. I didn’t like him much going into this season and like him even less now. I’m sure he’ll pitch a really good game sooner or later, but they’ll be few are far between more games like the last three. I don’t see any way he’ll be a fantasy asset in 2009.
Did you know that Jamie Moyer went 16 – 7 last season with a 3.71 ERA and 123 strikeouts in 196.1 innings–at the age of 45. Well, he’s still up to his old tricks again as he won his second game in three starts this season, despite giving up exactly 4 earned runs for the third straight game. There’s no way his ERA will ever be under 4.00 again, but he’s about a safe a bet to win a dozen games this season as anybody out there. On a more personal note, I believe Moyer is the last major leaguer left who is actually older than I am. So I hope he never retires, because then the little boy in me will be officially dead. Gotta love this guy. But I digress, back to the action.
PIRATES 3, MARLINS 2: Despite losing the game, Anibal Sanchez had the kind of start (7 7 3 3 2 6) which catches a fantasy player’s eye every time. After three starts this season, he has a 2.50 ERA and 1.50 WHIP, which is an unsustainable combination. If the 6 – 2 K/BB ratio isn’t a mirage (even with this game his K/BB ratio on the season is an unimpressive 13 – 8, which is about the same as his career ratio) then this definitely could be his breakout year. He was one of the most balleyhooed pitching prospects out there three years ago, and he has pitched a no-hitter already, but he hasn’t pitched well for any sustained length of time since his impressive rookie season in 2006. He’s a better bet than Shairon Martis let’s say, but I’m still pretty lukewarm about Sanchez’s propects for 2009. I’d be happy to have him as the last man on my staff, but that’s about it.
RANGERS 5, BLUE JAYS 4: Ian Kinsler is an absolute beast. I had the 15th pick in my 15-team standard 5 by 5 mixed league. Kinsler was picked 14th. I took Carlos Beltran 15th and Matt Holliday 16th. I’m still cringing about this one. Kinsler is now hitting a robust .446 on the young season, with 5 homers, 6 steals, 15 runs, and 18 RBIs in only 14 games. He coulda been mine. Ahhh!
TWINS at RED SOX (postponed)
Well, that’s all for now. I hope you enjoy reading, and don’t forget to let me know: Markakis or Sizemore?
Did You Know…?
Only one second baseman (Aaron Hill) had over 100 RBIs?
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