First Two Weeks…Don’t Freak Out, but Don’t Ignore Either

April 17, 2009

It is my (and I’m sure many other people’s) tendencies to overvalue the first few weeks of the season. Emilio Bonifacio gets 4 hits and steals a base or two – oh my god, grab him! Pablo Sandoval is hitting 212 with one rbi – toss him to the curb! Brandon Inge has 4 home runs – he’s a god! You get my drift…

And while you do have to be aware of what’s going on early in the season, there is still a tremendous amount of baseball left to be played. Let me give a few examples of early season greatness followed by flameout, and then the opposite (early season misery, followed by success), and a few suggestions.

First, the early season Gods:

Chris Shelton, 2006, Tigers 1B. Cut by the ever-brilliant Pirates, Shelton had surprised some people in 2005, hitting 299 with 18 home runs in 100 games. Then comes April 2006 – he hit ten home runs in April alone, drove in 20, hit 326 and was on pace for 430 total bases. He hit 6 home runs and had 27 rbi the rest of the way, and didn’t even make the team in 2007.

Matt Clement, 2005, Red Sox SP. In his first foray into the AL, Clement was 9-1 on July 1. He went 4-5 the rest of the way, and 5-5 the next year, and has not appeared in the majors since. I remember grabbing him in April and fending off trade offers for him, and then held on to him too long. Shoulda sold high, but of course, hindsight is 20/20.

Hubie Brooks, 1991, New York Mets OF. An extreme example, but one that is apropos nonetheless. Eight games into the season, Hubie was hitting 321 with 3 home runs and 6 rbi, to go along with 8 walks. He had already won a game for them with a hit, and people were saying how it was going to be his year. Well, over the next 15 games, hit did not homer and drove in only 2 runs, as his average fell to 233, where it hovered for the rest of the year. I remember having a fantasy draft 3 days into the season, and Hubie was the 3rd overall pick.

Today, less than 2 full weeks into the season, we have to remember that the season is not decided today. However, its also very very important to recognize when someone is worth picking up – or worth keeping, despite his troubles.

A few examples:

Albert Pujols, 2001. Prior to 2001, Pujols had played 3 games above class A, and hit 214, and wasn’t even on anyone’s radar. He made the team as the starting 3rd baseman out of spring training, and went crazy, hitting 370 with 8 home runs that April, and obviously, the rest is history.

Jack Cust, 2008, Oakland. As I have mentioned in the past, Cust was hitting 176 with one home run on May 1 last year. By the end of May, he was hitting 260 with 8 home runs, and finished the season with 33 bombs overall. Whoever was stupid enough to cut him in an AL-only league, well, I’m just stupid.

Ian Kinsler, 2007, Rangers 2B. Now people know Kinsler as the stud first-round pick that he is, but coming into 2007, he was a prospect who had come off a good, but inconsistent year in 2006. He got out of the gate in ‘07 like gangbusters – hit 300, 9 home runs, 22 rbi, an OPS of over 1000, and 4 steals for good measure. Then in May, he hit 174 with one home run, 5 rbi, and an OPS under 500. Although he kept stealing bases, his season never did reach that April, but as the Rangers 2B of the future, one bad month should not have been worthy of cutting him. I still rue the day that I did so…

Obviously, I could give many more examples, but this is just to give you an idea of how April means something, but certainly not everything, and DEFINITELY not 9 games worth. It means Jose Lopez won’t hit .194 all year, Nelson Cruz won’t hit 90 home runs, Mark Teixeira definitely won’t hit 160, Johan Santana won’t strike out 385 batters, Heath Bell wont save 70 games, et cetera et cetera et cetera.

So what do you do? Well, 3 things.

1) Don’t panic. Resist your urge to dump Cliff Lee because he’s had 2 bad starts. Don’t throw away David Ortiz because he hasn’t reached the Mendoza Line yet. Be patient; things will even out. But at the same time…

2) Be aware. If you own Heath Bell or Nelson Cruz, or someone else flying super high, his value is as high as it will ever be. See if you can trade them for someone who hasn’t started quite as well, to an owner who is less than patient. Bell has 5 saves, the Padres look good today a la the Nats of a few years ago – get good value for him! I remember in 2006, Nick Johnson was doing amazingly well, and a fellow owner refused many trade offers for him. He fell in love with Nicky’s success, and it burned him when Nick broke his leg in September, and missed all of 2007. Sell high, my friends!

3) Don’t rest. Just because you’re in first place by 30 points today and your team looks like its the second coming of Murderers Row, don’t rest. Always look to improve your team. If you have Alexi Casilla or someone crappy starting at 2nd base, don’t refuse to trade for a second baseman because your team is too amazing to deal anyone. Be careful – those stances have a tendency to bite you in the ass come September.

Agree? Disagree? Have experience that contradicts what I’ve said? Comment, and let me know!

Written by Jesse Mendelson · Filed Under Blog | 5 Comments 

On The Shelf – Dice-K to the DL, plus some

April 17, 2009

Red Sox Nation, let’s worry a little bit more. 

Daisuke Matsuzaka, or Dice-K, as we like to call him, has hit the 15-day disabled list with a “mild” right strained shoulder.  Shoulders are typically bad-news injuries for pitchers, so let’s watch this one closely folks.  If you haven’t already, let’s get primed to grab Clay Buchholz off the waiver wire.   On a similar note, Braves slinger Jorge Campillo will also be on the 15-day DL for shoulder tendonitis.   Kenshin Kawakami may serve as a decent source of strikeouts while Campillo is shelved, check and see if he’s available, but don’t expect a decent ERA out of the deal. 

In related news from Japanese imports, Kenji Johjima was placed on the 15-day DL with a strained hamstring.  Again, not so good news for a catcher, though Johjima isn’t a speedster (5 career SB’s), but Seattle isn’t exactly going to produce a fantasy worthy backup catcher.  Scour your waiver wire for a catching stop-gap.  Chris Coste from the Phillies might work out just fine for you.

And speaking of Coste, his Philadelphia catching counterpart, Carlos Ruiz, was recently DL’ed with a strained rib cage.  Not so good for swinging a bat.  Again, if you haven’t already, target Coste as your everyday backup backstop plan.

In other pitching “uh-oh’s“, St. Louis comeback candidate Chris Carpenter has strained a ribcage muscle and also, possibly an oblique as well.  Effectively bad for a pitcher.  The Cards should not expect a return from Carpenter for at least 6-8 weeks, it’s too bad too, he had pitched such a tidy 10 innings this season. 

Alex Gordon is planning on getting surgery today for a torn labral cartilage in his hip.  He will be seeing the same surgeon that Alex Rodriguez saw for his hip surgery, so the best estimate for a return to action will be 6-8 weeks, similar to A-Rod.  Don’t count on that as a hard and fast number, as everyone heals differently, but you will definitely need to suppliment your 3rd base slot in Gordon’s absence. 

X-Man’s, Xavier Nady’s elbow might be opening up a greater role in the Yankees grand scheme for Nick Swisher.  Nady was placed on the 15-day DL, but may be on his way to the 60-day (the Yanks may be thinking Tommy John), making Swisher a definite pick up, if he is available.  If not, think Brett Gardner.

Little hockey update.  Bruins 1, Habs 0, good start boys! 

That’s it for today… until next time…

Written by Dan King · Filed Under Blog, Miscellaneous, Player News, Roster Management | 4 Comments