My Thoughts Following Tonight’s Nationals Game

April 16, 2009

The Nats actually looked pretty good tonight.  A strong pitching performance by rookie Shairon Martis, and an offensive explosion including four homers, resulted in their first victory of the season.  I sat in the tenth row right behind home plate and got a terrific view of the game. Here are my thoughts on some of the players I watched.

Adam Dunn

  • Elijah Dukes has serious power.  I’ve promoted him as a big time sleeper this year on several occasions, and seeing him in person only enhanced my opinion of his skill.  He hit the ball hard almost every time he batted, including one shot that cleared the left field fence for a home run.  
  • Nick Johnson also looks great.  He went 3-4 with a walk and hit sharp line drives in every at-bat.  Even when he got out, he lined hard to the shortstop, Jimmy Rollins.  The talent’s always been there for Johnson; the question is whether he can stay healthy.
  • Joel Hanrahan looked better than I expected.  He threw a hard fastball that made it to 96 mph on the radar gun, and complemented it with a sharp slider.  
  • Raul Ibanez hit several sharp balls, including one into the gap that scored a run.  He went 2-4 on the night and should have a good year batting in that lineup.
  • Shairon Martis pitched well, limiting the Philadelphia offense to two runs and five hits over 6.1 innings.  He’s very young, but has advanced quickly through that Nats system after they traded for him from the Giants in 2006.  Martis got lit up in the majors last season (in only 20.2 IP) but did well in AAA and AA where he combined for 116.1 IP, 115 hits allowed, 45 BB, 99 K’s and a mid three ERA.  Expect him to struggle in his first full big league season, but keep him in mind for the future because he could develop into a good starter as he matures and gains major league experience.
  • Jesus Flores looked terrible; he struck out looking twice and looked lost at the plate. 
  • Adam Dunn has massive power; his homer was launched into the upper deck in right field.  Some suggest that he won’t hit 40 homers this year because he is no longer playing in a hitter’s park.  I disagree. 

Written by Evan Rosen · Filed Under Miscellaneous | Leave a Comment 

Bonifacio Watch: 1-11 Over Past Two Games

April 16, 2009

So maybe Bonifacio hasn’t locked up the fantasy baseball MVP just yet.  After starting the season 14-24, Bonifacio has gone 1-11 in his past two games.  This comes as no surprise.  Keep in mind that stats fluctuate wildly over the first few months of the season. 

Like many players, Bonifacio will have hot streaks and slumps.  His minor league numbers suggest that he’ll steal a ton of bases and maintain a decent batting average.  But it takes a much longer history of success to dub him the next Chone Figgins. 

On another note, I’m going to the Washington Nationals game tonight and will report back to you on my impressions later tonight or tomorrow.

Written by Evan Rosen · Filed Under Player News | Leave a Comment 

Conquering the Autodraft: A Real Experiment in Fantasy.. (III)

April 16, 2009

Remember my opening day autodrafted lineup in the mixed-league, 5×5 format? Here it was if you don’t:

C. Matt Wieters

1B. Prince Fielder

2B. Kelly Johnson

SS. Troy Tulowitzki

3B. David Wright

OF. Curtis Granderson

OF. Corey Hart

OF. Shane Victorino

UT. Lance Berkman

 

SP. Cliff Lee

SP. Matt Cain

SP. John Lackey

SP. John Maine

SP. Brett Myers

SP. Clay Kershaw

SP. Andy Pettitte

RP. Chris Ray

RP. Brandon Lyon

RP. Brian Wilson

Bench – Rick Ankiel, Ryan Theriot, Adam LaRoche, Justin Upton

Now after a few transactions (NO trades, yet):

C. Ramon Hernandez

1B. Prince Fielder

2B. Kelly Johnson

SS. Troy Tulowitzki

3B. David Wright

OF. Curtis Granderson

OF. Corey Hart

OF. Shane Victorino

UT. Lance Berkman

 

SP. Cliff Lee

SP. Matt Cain

SP. John Lackey (DL)

SP. David Price

SP. Brett Myers

SP. Clay Kershaw

RP. Rafael Soriano

RP. Jason Motte

RP. Chris Ray

RP. Fernando Rodney

RP. Brian Wilson

Bench – Hafner, Wieters

Analysis:  So far I don’t know that we have a winner here yet, but we have the scaffolding barring injury.  Right now Wieters and Price are buried in triple A and the closer situation in Atlanta and St. Louis is not yet resolved to my satisfaction, so I will hold Motte and Soriano until things work out, all the while hopefully benefitting from ERA, WHIP, and the occasional Save.  When Wieters is called up and if he can handle the pressure of the Bigs the way scouts and insiders predict, I will release Ramon and snatch up another SP. Until then we have made some improvement..

Written by Russell Sandman · Filed Under Blog | Leave a Comment 

Sabremetrics: Pitching & Luck

April 16, 2009

How much does luck effect a pitcher’s stats?  Is the pitcher at fault if a softly hit ball finds a hole in the infield? If a sharply hit line drive falls into the gap instead of into an outfielder’s glove, is that the pitcher’s fault?   If a pitcher lets up a bloop single that falls just over the infielder’s head, is that merely unlucky?  Are some pitchers consistently luckier than others?  These are some of the topics tackled in a great article by the Rotowire guys that can be found here.

Post your comments below.

Written by Evan Rosen · Filed Under Miscellaneous | Leave a Comment