Beware Of Opening Day Superstars

April 7, 2009

In the movie Major League, Bob Uecker states, “A lotta people say you can tell how a season’s gonna go by the first hitter of the year.” And Willie Mays Hayes’ dribbler that he barely beat out did foreshadow the Indians narrow success in that movie.  But in real life, one hitter and one game does not necessarily have any correlation to how a player will do over a full season.

I am reminded of former Astros and Cubs flame-out, Karl “Tuffy” Rhodes, who hit three homers on opening day in 1994 against Dwight Gooden. My entire league raced to pick him up from the free agent wire. After all, if he can hit three homers in a single game against one of the best pitchers in baseball, he could be the biggest sleeper of the season. Not so fast. To the dismay of many overly-optimistic fantasy baseball managers that year, Rhodes finished the year with a meager .234 average, 8 homers and 19 RBI’s, not exactly MVP numbers.

Similarly, several players began 2009 with a bang. A year after getting Andruw Jones Syndrome, Jeff Francoeur had a new batting stance and slugged a homer on Opening Day.  Likewise, after going 4-5 with an inside-the-park home run and three stolen bases, Emilio Bonifacio looks like Vince Coleman, Rickey Henderson, and Jose Reyes rolled up into one player.  Chad Tracy looks like he’s fully healthy and ready to hit 27 homers like he did in 2005, and Felipe Lopez is pulling a Ryne Sandberg imitation. 

Some of these players may have very good years.  But don’t get too excited by one game.  Bonifacio is the most glaring example.  He has potential, and his minor league record shows that he has tremendous speed.  But 25-35 steals is a reasonable expectation – not 100.  There are many Tuffy Rhodes examples that should temper your expectations. 

Yet, a single game can be useful to examine lineups, review who is starting and who is riding the pine, and to judge whether players appear healthy (lower than normal velocity; limping, grimacing; ugly looking swings; etc.).  You can also use a good game to your advantage, particularly if you have inexperienced managers in your league.

One of the best trades I ever made was because of one game.  Lloyd McClendon was called up from the minors to the Pirates in 1991 and promptly hit a grand slam.  I picked him up, talked up his minor league stats, and traded him straight up for Brett Butler.  McClendon hit .288 with 7 homers and 24 RBI’s in 183 at-bats that year.  Butler hit .296 with 2 homers, 38 RBI’s and 38 steals.  I got a great deal all because of one game. 

Any other prominent one game wonders that impacted your fantasy baseball season?  Share in the comments section below.

Written by Evan Rosen · Filed Under Miscellaneous | 2 Comments