h2h Corner ~ Katy Perry All-Stars II
April 30, 2009
Welcome to the latest installment of the weekly hot and cold fantasy trends update. Read more
Joba the Stud
April 29, 2009
As I sit here watching the Yankee game, avoiding my homework at all costs, I ponder three things. One, why is Nick Swisher so good at life (two home runs, from each side of the plate). Two, Johan Santana can not catch a break. Seriously, how many times has he pitched a gem just for the bullpen to go and blow the game? He must have angered some baseball God in a previous life. Finally, Joba Chamberlin is back.
One common gripe many people had with Chamberlin being moved into the rotation was the apparent dip in his velocity. However, after tonight’s game against the Detroit Tigers, I am now a believer that he can be an effective starter.
Joba has allowed two hits so far and just threw a five pitch inning (bottom of the sixth when I am writing this). Those numbers are great, but the numbers I am concerned with is miles per hour. As a relief pitcher, Joba was constantly hitting the high 90s with his fastball and his slider was ranging from 88-92 mph, extremely dirty stuff.
He was unable to reach those numbers in his first few starts, which was expected. Normally when a relief pitcher, who is only used to throwing an inning or two at the most, goes into the rotation, he is unable to keep his velocity up. Tonight, Joba changed that. He has been consistently hitting 96 mph on his fastball with his slider being a nice compliment at 90 mph.
With the increase in these numbers, I urge all fantasy owners to go out and get Joba. He is about to go on a tear. Combined with the Yankees finally figuring out how to score runs in bunches Joba will have plenty of support. That will only increase when A-Rod returns on May 8th.
Edit: Robinson Cano has joined the really good at life club.
-Bobby Holt
h2h Corner ~ Keep, Trade or Drop (VI)
April 29, 2009
Time for the latest edition of the game show that is sweeping America like Who Wants to be a Millionaire did back in 1999, which was the year of Ivan Rodriguez, the New York Yankees and Livin’ La Vida Loca. You guessed it, Keep Trade or Drop (KTD). Read more
The First Two Weeks – update!
April 29, 2009
Last week, I wrote a column on how you can’t ignore, or freak out about, the first two weeks of the season. (RealClearSports.com picked it up, which is very cool, so you can read it here if you missed it – http://www.fantasybaseball101.com/2009/04/17/first-two-weeksdont-freak-out-but-dont-ignore-either/)
Now, twelve days after I wrote that piece, I want to post a bit of follow up that I think proves my point:
1) In my leagues, the teams that had 20 point first place leads are now in 3rd (20.5 points behind the leader) and 5th (20 points behind the leader), respectively. That’s a 40 point swing in less than two weeks, so those owners who like to sit on their success in the early going fall victim to such changes.
2) Emilio Bonifacio’s current value is virtually non-existant; Adam Lind is still hitting very well, but has slowed a bit and seen his average fall 100 points in 2 weeks; David Ortiz has raised his average 40 points in a week (now if he’d only help us out with a homer or two…), and so on.
3) As for my teams, I was in 8th in my AL-only league and 11th in the mixed league. Today, I’m in 4th in both – early season standings, just like Evan said in his recent post, don’t mean much yet.
Marlon Byrd – should you pick him up?
April 29, 2009
It was reported today that with Rangers CF Josh Hamilton in extreme pain, and probably on his way to the DL (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4108466), Marlon Byrd will take over as the Rangers starting center fielder.
As it is, Byrd plays every day against right-handed pitchers, and why wouldn’t he – he hit .308 against them last year over 113 games, and is hitting .390 against them this year in 14 games. He is decent against lefties – he hit .277 with 6 homers against them last year, but definitely worth a pick up if you need a good all-around OF. He’s not amazing at any one category, but will be a good source of runs and rbi, with the occasional stolen base and homerun thrown in there.
Considering he hits in one of the best lineups in baseball, in one of the best hitters parks in baseball, and is guaranteed to play every day for a little while, and will hit right-handers well all year, he’s definitely worth a spot in an AL-only league, and depending on your outfielders, probably worth a spot in mixed leagues too.
h2h Corner ~ Red Light District IV, the Closer Carousel
April 29, 2009
They do most of their work late at night, often after most upstanding fantasy managers have gone to bed. They necessitate early checking of box scores and Fantasy Baseball 101 to see if they secured the win for the home team. They are your average, everyday closers. And that is the best way to describe this Motley Crew – average. Any average reliever, if he’s asked to record the game’s final three outs, can make a half-way decent closer. So, you never pay for saves, which oddly enough is the first rule of closers. Read more
Is Joel Pineiro This Year’s John Burkett?
April 28, 2009
From 1990 to 1994 John Burkett was a solid starting pitcher for the San Francisco Giants. His best year came in 1993 when he went 22-7 with a 3.65 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. In each of the other years during that period, Burkett’s ERA hovered in the upper 3’s, with solid WHIP’s and double-digit wins.
Burkett’s time as a reliable fantasy baseball starter came to a quick end. He had a few mediocre years from 1995 to 1997 , but soon entered into the realm of fantasy baseball oblivion. In 1998, Burkett got bludgeoned to the tune of a 5.68 ERA. If you listen hard enough you can still hear fantasy owners cursing his name. Unfortunately, managers who expected a come-back year in 1999 were equally disappointed as Burkett finished the season with a 5.62 ERA and 1.56 WHIP. Likewise, in 2000, Burkett had a miserable season, finishing with a 4.89 ERA and 1.58 WHIP. One would think Burkett’s time as a major leaguer was at its end after three consecutive atrocious seasons.
To the surprise of everyone – maybe even including Burkett himself – he had a terrific year in 2001. Fantasy baseball teams lucky enough to draft (or pickup) Burkett that year were rewarded with 12 wins, a 3.03 ERA, 187 K’s, and a 1.17 WHIP. Burkett reverted to 1998-2000 form in 2002, but for that one year, 2001, he gave fantasy managers something to smile about.
Which leads us to the question posed in the title of this post: is Joel Pineiro this year’s John Burkett?
From 2001 to 2003 Pineiro was at the top of his game and considered by many to be one of the best and most promising young arms in the game. In 2001, Pineiro tossed 75.1 innings and finished with a 2.03 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. In a larger sample size in 2002 season, Pineiro won 14 games and wound up with a 3.24 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in 194.1 innings pitched. Pineiro’s 2003 season was just as stellar. In that season, Pineiro won 16 games and finished with a 3.78 ERA and 1.24 WHIP.
Like Burkett, Pineiro followed his success with a precipitous decline. From 2004 to 2008 Pineiro’s seasons were marred by terrible ERA’s, atrocious WHIP’s, and an exceedingly high BAA. In that five year span he never won more than eight games in a season. His ERA’s were: 4.67, 5.62, 6.36, 4.33 (in only 97.2 IP), and 5.15. Yikes. Jake Peavy he was not.
Fast forward to 2009 and Pineiro is 4-0 with a 3.76 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. Pineiro credits his fast start to his transition to a sinker-ball pitcher. Fantasy baseball managers around the country are rushing to pick him up to bolster their team’s wins and starting staff. Big mistake. Pineiro is not this year’s John Burkett.
Although Pineiro has four wins and superficially appears to be dominating National League batters, a closer examination shows that he is due for a good shelling or two. Opposing hitters are batting .306 against Pineiro. He has let up more hits than innings pitched and is striking out barely two batters per nine innings. He is also injury-prone, having spent time on the disabled list in 2004, 2005, 2007, and 2008.
In fairness, Pineiro’s sinker does appear to be helping him as he has only let up one home run in 26.1 innings of work, far below the 22 homer pace he averaged from 2004-2006. While his sinker may help keep the ball in the park, it is not exactly Derek Lowe or Brandon Webb quality. We expect a mild improvement for Pineiro this year, but nowhere near Burkett’s impressive 3.03 ERA season, which was an anomaly. Expect 11 wins, a 4.85 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. Not the end of the world for a NL-only league, but not good either.
Hanrahan Out!
April 28, 2009
Three out of five isn’t bad – unless of course the three are blown saves in five save opportunities. But, that has been he story of Joel Hanrahan’s 2009 season. After another crushing, late-inning loss on Monday, Hanrahan was removed as closer for Washington by manager Manny Acta. So ends the experiment that began in ‘08 after the loss of Chad Cordero.
Acta has said that he plans to use a committee to close out games until an heir-apparent emerges. Current closer candidates include Julian Tavarez, Joe Beimel (DL), Kip Wells (yes, that one), and Saul Rivera. Unfortunately no one closer-would-be seems a stronger candidate than any other, and perhaps none more or less passable than Hanrahan himself. We expect more late-inning collapses as the drama in DC unfolds. Tune in and watch the waiver wire like a hawk and the next mediocre Nationals closer candidate may be your just reward!
Jordan Zimmerman is 2-0
April 27, 2009
Rookie phenom Jordan Zimmerman won his second major league game in as many starts yesterday against the Mets. Zimmerman combined a 95-mph fastball with sharp off-speed pitches to keep the Mets off-balance. He even struck out Mets slugger, David Wright, three times. In total, Zimmerman tossed 5.1 innings, letting up one earned run, six hits, two walks, and striking out five. This was somewhat reminiscent of his major league debut six days earlier, when he pitched six innings and let up two earned runs, while walking one batter and striking out three. So far this year, Zimmerman has a 2.38 ERA and 1.32 WHIP.
It is rare for a rookie pitcher to dominate in his first year. Indeed, some of the best pitchers of the past generation struggled in their rookie season. Players like John Smoltz, Greg Maddux, Jake Peavy, and Johan Santana. Still, there are plenty of examples of immediate success (see C.C. Sabathia, Josh Beckett, A.J. Burnett, Cole Hamels, Tim Lincecum, etc.). Given Zimmerman’s minor league pedigree and current situation, we see him doing relatively well this year.
Zimmerman has several things in his favor. First, he plays in a pitcher-friendly stadium and, unless he struggles mightily, is virtually assured a spot in the rotation. Second, his minor league stats are sick. Last season, in 106.2 Double A innings pitched, Zimmerman has a 3.21 ERA, 103 K’s and let up only 89 hits and 39 walks. He has also has 80.1 Single A innings pitched (split between 2007 and the first part of 2008) and his stats there are even more impressive. There, he had a minuscule 2.12 ERA, 102 K’s, and let up only 60 hits. Third, is his general demeanor and pitch quality. He is “extremely polished”, throws strikes, has a hard fastball with good movement, and a solid arsenal of off-speed pitches.
Now for the downside. Besides the obvious struggles that all rookie pitchers go through (adjusting to the talent of major little hitters, making the necessary adjustments, dealing with the pressure and media, etc.), Zimmerman has the misfortune of playing for the woeful Washington Nationals. With a talented, yet unproven and inconsistent offense behind him, it is unlikely that Zimmerman will win a ton of games. Plus, it doesn’t help that, playing in the NL East, he’ll have to face the offenses of the Mets, Phillies, Marlins and Braves — all of whom can hit the cover off the ball.
Still, playing in Washington, D.C. may be a blessing in disguise because the Nats can bring him along slowly. Neither fans nor the media expect the Nats to do well this year, so Zimmerman’s performances will not be scrutinized the way they would had he been a Yankees, Mets, or Red Sox prospect. Instead, Zimmerman can ease into the league without the pressure of a pennant race.
We think Zimmerman will have his ups and downs this year, but 10-12 wins, a 3.90-4.25 ERA and ~1.35 WHIP is a reasonable expectation for 2009. But we expect him to improve rapidly as he matures, which makes him a terrific player for keeper leagues.
Ellsbury Steals Home!
April 26, 2009
Wow, I just saw something i’ve never seen live before. Jacoby Ellsbury stole home against Andy Pettite and the New York Yankees. It was a straight steal of home, Jackie Robinson style. Ellsbury had a great jump, but his speed is simply unreal. As soon as it becomes available, i’ll post a video of it.
Now, I know that a lot of Yankees fans visit this site and don’t want to read about the feats of a Red Sox player. But regardless of what team you root for, as a baseball fan, you have to appreciate the chutzpah of Ellsbury. A straight steal of home is such a rare occurrence that the Red Sox fans gave Ellsbury a good five minute standing ovation and Ellsbury had to came out of the dugout for a curtain call.
The steal of home was Ellsbury’s second steal of the game. He now has 10 steals on the season and a .293 batting average. Ellsbury’s running like Willie “Mays” Hayes this year and looked poised to improve on last year’s stellar season.
Did You Know…?
Did you know that Joey Votto finished fourth in the majors in OPS last season with a .981 OPS?
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