Spring Training Stats Don’t Mean Squat

March 31, 2009

Every March sports journalists and fantasy baseball afficionados gossip about the latest and greatest spring training performances. Have you heard that Mark Teahen has five homers in 42 at-bats? Or that Joel Pineiro has a 1.44 ERA in 25 innings pitched? I’ m here to tell you that these stats don’t mean a blessed thing come April 5.

Spring Training stats are compiled in an abbreviated sample size, with stats often skewed by performances against minor league players, or by players trying out new things (e.g. new pitches, different batting stances, etc.). For veteran players especially, spring stats have little correlation to regular season success. Thus, Joel Pineiro’s spring success will not translate into a stellar 2009 regular season ERA; Zach Greinke will not finish 2009 with a 9.64 ERA; and Eric Bruntlett, who has stolen seven bases thus far this spring, will be lucky to stealthat many for the entire season.

There are endless examples of hitters who perform well in the spring but struggle in the regular season, and vice versa. Robinson Cano had a .447 batting average last spring, but had an atrocious April and finished with the worst stats of his career. Carlos Ruiz was a top sleeper pick at catcher last season after hitting .407 in the spring, but he struggled to a meager .219 average in the regular season. Likewise, Eric Patterson hit .314 in the spring, and .192 in the regular season. Carlos Beltran hit .190 with zero homers in the spring, but put together another all-star year in the regular season. Joey Votto hit .158 in the spring, hardly the stats one would expect to see after witnessing his .297, 24 homer regular season performance. And as a final illustration, J.R. Towles hit .467 in the spring and subsequentally became one of the biggest fantasy baseball flops in history after hitting .137 and losing his job.

Some have argued that a difference in a player’s spring slugging percentage and lifetime slugging percentage of .200 or more will foreshadow improvement in the upcoming season. Don’t be snookered by such malarkey! Last year, players falling into that description included Brian Anderson, Carlos Guillen, Billy Butler and Nick Swisher. But they didn’t exactly make the Sports Center highlight reel in 2009.

You should also beware of boasts and unrealistic expectations. Randy Johnson claims he feels like he’s in better shape than anytime over the past four years. Unsigned Pedro Martinez says the same. Then there the infamous story from a few years ago about Bernard Gilkey claiming he was going to steal 30 bases. He might as well have said he bought 100 batting gloves, one for every base he was going to steal. Here’s a tip: if Christian Guzman claims he’s going to hit 30 homers this season, run. Run far far away and don’t draft him.

The title of this article aside, there are certain, specific situations where spring stats do matter. First, spring stats are useful to determine the winner of position battles. For example, Emilio Bonafacio won the starting third base job with the Marlins because he hit the ball well this spring, whereas Dallas McPherson did not. Likewise, Travis Ishikara won the starting first base job with the Giants because of his outstanding spring. For young,players competting for a starting job, spring stats may form the basis for the manager’s decision, and should be viewed accordingly.

Second, spring stats are useful to determine whether a player is healthy. For example, Chris Carpenter has been out the past two years following arm surgery. While he remains a big risk, it is encouraging that he has dominated this spring and shown no signs of arm trouble. Ditto for Mike Hampton. Similarly, Chone Figgins stole less than expected in 2008 as a result of an injured hamstring. Yet, he’s running well this spring and already has seven steals, which is good for third in the majors.

While spring stats are relevant in those few situations, I do not believe they are helpful to project 2009 performances. Instead, I recommend looking at a a myriad of other stats, including, among others, a player’s three year history, with extra emphasis on the most recent year, his age, ballpark, supporting lineup, trends in stats, sabremetric stats, and anticipated playing time.