h2h Corner ~ Brad Ziegler, A’s closer

March 31, 2009

With news that Joey Devine, he of the 0.59 ERA last year, is headed to the DL and Dr. James Andrews, Brad Ziegler appears to be the next closer wire claim of the unborn season. In 59 innings last season, Ziegler struck out 30 batters (not great), but posted a 1.06 ERA and 1.15 WHIP.

With worse ratios than that, he could be a 30 save closer in 2009. He is certainly someone who can step right in for Joey Devine and perform. Don’t forget, last year Ziegler set a major league record for most consecutive scoreless innings to start a career.

There is the chance that major league batters caught up to his funky delivery slightly, as he posted a 3.00 ERA in September/October. Still, as a waiver wire pick-up, you should be jettisoning your Mariner’s closers, Fernando Rodney, Chris Ray, George Sherrill, Chris Perez, and J.J. Putz types. A 3.00 ERA closer is still a rosterable entity.

Written by Albert Lang · Filed Under Player News | 5 Comments 

Pitchability?!?!

March 31, 2009

After seeing Sidney Ponson get rocked in today’s spring training start, Royals manager Trey Hillman said: “I’m not disappointed. I didn’t like the results, but I’m not disappointed in what he brings to table. … We still saw stuff, pitchability.”

Word to the wise – until and unless Pitchability becomes a category in your league, there is absolutely no justification for owning Sidney Ponson. And this is coming from someone who owned him last year for about 5 minutes. No excuses.

And Royals fans wonder why they don’t win…

Written by Jesse Mendelson · Filed Under Blog | 3 Comments 

h2h Corner ~ Impact Prospects I

March 31, 2009

When you are playing against owners who know and follow baseball, drafting based on previous performance, while key, may not be enough to win your league. Fielding a strong team in this environment dictates you manage to pick up major impact prospects in the later rounds of your draft or in the days after they have left Durham.

Two years ago, managing the waiver wire to ensure you grabbed Ryan Braun netted you tasty results. Last year, grabbing players like Edison Volquez, Johnny Cueto, Jacoby Ellsbury, Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, Evan Longoria, and Geovany Soto helped you to fantasy gold.

Of course, there was also Andy LaRoche, Homer Bailey, Cameron Maybin, Clay Buccholz, and Daric Barton. So, you have to be careful about what you use (draft pick or if you drop a player from your team) to grab your blue chipper.

This year, the headliners are David Price and Matt Wieters. You know them; they are on rosters and should be drafted in the first 20 rounds based on upside. However, you are taking a bigger gamble on these guys than those detailed below. Personally, I wouldn’t use a top 15 round draft pick on an inexperienced player likely to spend significant time in the minors. When I analyze prospects, all I care about is maximizing production from the later rounds of my draft and the waiver wire. That said, lets get to part I.

Tommy Hanson – SP – Atlanta Braves – Hanson struck out 114 hitters in 98 AA innings last year – wow. It is not hard to imagine similar strike out potential to Johnny Cueto, but Hanson could easily outshine him in the more pitcher-friendly confines of Turner Field. It is possible that the Braves, in sending him to the minors, are trying to delay his arbitration clock. This means he should get close to four months of MLB time, which should put him on your waiver wire radar by the middle of May at the latest.

Brett Wallace – 3b – St. Louis Cardinals – Wallace only has 54 minor league games (41 in A ball) to his credit. Still, he had a .427 OBP and .530 slugging percentage. In his small sample size of 49 AA at bats, Wallace managed a .367 AVG, .456 OBP, and .653 SLG. Though he bats left-handed, he seems to handle lefties and righties equally well. If Glaus’ injury persists into the summer, the Cardinals could see added pressure to bring Wallace up to the big leagues.

Mat Gamel – 3b – Milwaukee Brewers – Gamel killed the ball in AA last year, posting a 96/19/96/.329 line in 127 games. When promoted to AAA, he seemed to struggle (though he only had 21 ABs). Still, his bat isn’t what is keeping him in the minors. As soon as he gains some consistency with his glove, he should be a contributing Brewer regular. Sounds eerily similar to Ryan Braun’s story, eh? Plus, do you think Bill Hall can keep him down?

Jordan Zimmerman – SP – Washington Nationals – Zimmerman is, perhaps, the prospect most on the rise in fantasy circles. In 106 AA innings, he struck out 103 batters, while posting a 3.21 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. It looks like he’ll break camp with the Nationals, meaning he could be a sneaky source of Ks at the outset. However, you can’t expect him to post ratios similar to those of his minor league stats, as the show is a bit different than AA ball.

Dexter Fowler – OF – Colorado Rockies – in 108 games in AA last year, Fowler hit .335 with 92 runs, 9 HRs, 64 RBIs and 20 SBs. That amounts to a .431 OBP, a .515 SLG, and an OPS of .946. If he can crack the starting nine, Fowler could provide a sneaky combination of power and speed – did I mention he plays in Coors?

Neftali Feliz – SP Texas Rangers – In addition to Jared Saltalamacchia, Feliz was a key piece of bounty in the Mark Teixeira deal two summers ago. He has only pitched 45 innings in AA, but boy were those an impressive 45 innings. He struck out 47 batters, while posting a 2.98 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. Still, expectations must be tempered based on his age (21), and home ballpark.

Written by Albert Lang · Filed Under Minor Leagues | 5 Comments 

Spring Training Stats Don’t Mean Squat

March 31, 2009

Every March sports journalists and fantasy baseball afficionados gossip about the latest and greatest spring training performances.  Have you heard that Mark Teahen has five homers in 42 at-bats?  Or that Joel Pineiro has a 1.44 ERA in 25 innings pitched?  I’ m here to tell you that these stats don’t mean a blessed thing come April 5. 

Spring Training stats are compiled in an abbreviated sample size, with stats often skewed by performances against minor league players, or by players trying out new things (e.g. new pitches, different batting stances, etc.).  For veteran players especially, spring stats have little correlation to regular season success.  Thus, Joel Pineiro’s spring success will not translate into a stellar 2009 regular season ERA; Zach Greinke will not finish 2009 with a 9.64 ERA; and Eric Bruntlett, who has stolen seven bases thus far this spring, will be lucky to stealthat many for the entire season.  

There are endless examples of hitters who perform well in the spring but struggle in the regular season, and vice versa.  Robinson Cano had a .447 batting average last spring, but had an atrocious April and finished with the worst stats of his career.  Carlos Ruiz was a top sleeper pick at catcher last season after hitting .407 in the spring, but he struggled to a meager .219 average in the regular season.  Likewise, Eric Patterson hit .314 in the spring, and .192 in the regular season.  Carlos Beltran hit .190 with zero homers in the spring, but put together another all-star year in the regular season.  Joey Votto hit .158 in the spring, hardly the stats one would expect to see after witnessing his .297, 24 homer regular season performance.  And as a final illustration, J.R. Towles hit .467 in the spring and subsequentally became one of the biggest fantasy baseball flops in history after hitting .137 and losing his job.

Some have argued that a difference in a player’s spring slugging percentage and lifetime slugging percentage of .200 or more will foreshadow improvement in the upcoming season.  Don’t be snookered by such malarkey!   Last year, players falling into that description included Brian Anderson, Carlos Guillen, Billy Butler and Nick Swisher.  But they didn’t exactly make the Sports Center highlight reel in 2009. 

You should also beware of boasts and unrealistic expectations.  Randy Johnson claims he feels like he’s in better shape than anytime over the past four years.   Unsigned Pedro Martinez says the same.   Then there the infamous story from a few years ago about Bernard Gilkey claiming he was going to steal 30 bases.  He might as well have said he bought 100 batting gloves, one for every base he was going to steal.  Here’s a tip: if Christian Guzman claims he’s going to hit 30 homers this season, run.  Run far far away and don’t draft him. 

The title of this article aside, there are certain, specific situations where spring stats do matter.  First, spring stats are useful to determine the winner of position battles.  For example, Emilio Bonafacio won the starting third base job with the Marlins because he hit the ball well this spring, whereas Dallas McPherson did not.  Likewise, Travis Ishikara won the starting first base job with the Giants because of his outstanding spring.  For young,players competting for a starting job, spring stats may form the basis for the manager’s decision, and should be viewed accordingly.

Second, spring stats are useful to determine whether a player is healthy.  For example, Chris Carpenter has been out the past two years following arm surgery.  While he remains a big risk, it is encouraging that he has dominated this spring and shown no signs of arm trouble.  Ditto for Mike Hampton.  Similarly, Chone Figgins stole less than expected in 2008 as a result of an injured hamstring.  Yet, he’s running well this spring and already has seven steals, which is good for third in the majors. 

While spring stats are relevant in those few situations, I do not believe they are helpful to project 2009 performances.  Instead, I recommend looking at a a myriad of other stats, including, among others, a player’s three year history, with extra emphasis on the most recent year, his age, ballpark, supporting lineup, trends in stats, sabremetric stats, and anticipated playing time.

Written by Evan Rosen · Filed Under Blog, Draft Strategy | Leave a Comment