h2h Corner ~ Brett Gardner, the starter…

March 30, 2009

The Yankees are important. The centerfielder for the Yankees is important. Ladies and gentlemen, your 2009 Opening Day centerfielder is Melky, er, Brett Gardner. Read more

Written by Albert Lang · Filed Under Blog, Player News | 1 Comment 

Closer Knowledge – Update!

March 30, 2009

As an update to my recent column, the Cardinals sent reliever Chris Perez to AAA this afternoon, meaning that either Jason Motte or Ryan Franklin will close for the Cards to start the year.

I’d grab Motte right now if he’s available in your league. He was drafted in the 17th round in my mixed league draft the other day, causing half the room to yell and scream. So go get him now.

Written by Jesse Mendelson · Filed Under Blog | 1 Comment 

How To Identify A Sleeper, Part III

March 30, 2009

This series provides a primer on how to identify your own sleepers rather than rely exclusively on the experts’ picks.  To recap, the first technique is to find a player who performed well in limited playing time in the past and is now slotted for a full-time role.  The second techinque is to identify a player who performed poorly in 2008 because of an injury (the player either missed a lot of time, or played through the pain to the detriment of his stats), but is fully healed and has a starting job in 2009. 

The third technique, which I discuss today, is to identify a young player who will have a breakout season in 2009.  History provides a glimpse into the benefits of this strategy.  Many all-stars struggled in their first couple of seasons in the Bigs.  Only after they developed physically and mentally, and adapted to the rigors of the pros, were they able to become stars.  Take Greg Maddux as an example.  He finished his rookie season, 1986, with a 5.52 ERA and followed that up with a less-than-stellar 5.61 ERA in 1987.  But fantasy baseball managers willing to take a chance on him in 1988 were rewarded with 18 wins and a 3.18 ERA.

There are countless players that similarly struggled before attaining success.  J.J. Hardy hit .247 with 9 homers in his rookie season, hardly foreshadowing his .283 average and 24 homers of 2008.  Likewise, Aramis Ramirez hit .235 in 1998, .179 in 1999, and .256 in 2000.  Although he had great promise, few expected him to break through with a .300 batting average and 34 homers in 2001.  The same can be said of Jake Peavy, who had a  4.52 ERA and six wins in 2002 and later became one of the best pitchers in baseball.

Your task is to identify those talented players who will have a breakout performance in 2009.  There are some general guidelines to assist you in this assignment.

First, take a look at the player’s age.  Players who make it to the majors at a very young age (18-23) must be very talented to make it to the majors so quickly.  Even if they struggle at first, there is reason to hope they will adapt to the pros and have a banner career once they get more experience.  Indeed, many experts hypothesize that 27 is the magic age for developing players.  While there may be some merit to that theory, I believe it varies on the player and the age at which they made their major league debut.

Second, look for players who were mediocre in 2008, but not terrible.  Players that hit .250 — as opposed to .150 — are clearly able to handle the majors, and with a few adjustments can make it to the next level. 

Third, look for trends.  Some young players struggle in their first few years, but if their performance consistently improves, there is reason for optimisim. 

Fourth, look at minor league numbers.  Sure, some players with great minor league numbers never succeed in the majors (e.g. Andy Marte, Luis Medina, Eric Anthony, David West, Ben McDonald, Reggie Jefferson, etc.), but dominance in the minors could indicate upward potential and future success in the Bigs.

Fifth, make the sure the player has a full-time job and will receive plenty of playing time.

Sixth, watch the player on television.  Trust your gut.  Does the batter have a wild swing?  Does he hit the ball hard?  If you are watching a pitcher, does he look dominant?  Is he wild?  Is he a pitcher or a thrower? 

This strategy involves a bit more of guesswork than the others.  Even if you guess correctly on a future all-star, you still need to predict that it will happen this season.  Here are some players that could breakout this season:

1) Adam Jones.  Jones is 23 years old and held his own in his rookie season with a .270-9-57-10-61 performance.  He hit .314 with 25 homers and 8 steals in Triple A in 2007, and we expect Jones will take another step forward in 2009.

2) Billy Butler.  Butler took a step back last season, after a very successful rookie season in 2007.  Still, he managed a .275 batting average and 11 homers in 4443 at-bats in 2008.  He’s only 22, but seems ready for a .290-20-80 season.

3) Elijah Dukes.  Dukes has always been a head case, but anyone that saw him play at the end of 2008 witnessed his prodigious power.  His trend is also favorable.  A year after hitting .190 with 10 homers and 21 RBI’s, Dukes hit .264 with 13 homers and 44 RBI’s.  Dukes enters 2009 as a starter, and could hit 20+ homers with similar stolen base totals.

4) Justin Upton.  Scouts have been raving about Upton for several years now, but he hasn’t done too much at the majors yet to justify the hype.  His rookie season was awful; he hit .221 with 37 strikeouts in 140 at-bats.  But Upton showed marked improvement in 2008, slugging 15 homers with a .250 average.  Only 21, Upton should become a star in 2009 or 2010.

5) Zack Greinke.  Greinke gets overlooked because he plays on the Royals, but he is a star in the making.  Only 25, Greinke has improved in each of his three big league seasons.  Last year, he quietly managed 13 wins with a 3.47 ERA 1.28 WHIP, and 183 K’s.  His peripherals are also good, with a good hits-to-innings pitched ratio, and low walks.  Greinke should continue his development in 2009.

6) Paul Malholm.  Many scoff at drafting Pittsburgh Pirates, but Malholm may actually be a worthy choice.  In 2007, Malhom had a deceivingly poor 5.01 ERA, but that was partly the result of two atrocious September starts.  Last season is more illustrative.  He put together a 3.71 ERA, 139 K’s and a 1.28 WHIP.  At 26 years of age, Malholm could develop into a mid-tier pitcher with 13 wins, a 3.50 ERA and 1.25 WHIP a possibility. 

7) Yusmeiro Petit.  Petit may never be a star, but he could develop into a reliable #3 starter.  He has improved in each of his three seasons in the pros, culminating ina 4.31 ERA, 1.05 WHIP performance in 2008.  Petiti has a deceiving delivery, which makes him hard to hit and results in good strikeout numbers.  If he retains a rotation spot for a full season, Petit could supply 12 wins with a 4.20 ERA and 1.20 WHIP.

Are there any I missed? Feel free to leave them in the comments section.  Happy hunting and good luck.

Written by Evan Rosen · Filed Under Blog, Draft Strategy | 2 Comments