Closer Knowledge

March 29, 2009

Today provided a lot more clarity into who will begin the season as a closer for a couple teams. First, Sweet Lou Piniella finally named his closer, and it will be Kevin Gregg, who served as Florida’s closer the past two years and was acquired in a trade over the winter. Gregg saved 61 games over the past two years and has had an excellent spring so far. Gregg was chosen over Carlos Marmol, who is by far the better pitcher, and one of the few middle relievers worth owning in any league. He led all NL relievers in strikeouts last year, and is generally lights out…BUT in a league that doesn’t count holds, Gregg immediately vaults to near-top closer status. Gregg will be the Cubs’ 3rd closer in the past three years (Ryan Dempster and Kerry Wood were the others), and you can count on a few wins, 30 saves, and a decent enough ERA and WHIP that he won’t kill you. Gregg is known to have some pretty big blowups, so if Sweet Lou has a short leash, Marmol is good enough that you should own him too.

The second team that gave us some closer clarity today is the Mariners. Brendan Morrow informed the team that he wants to be the closer (a la Jonathan Papelbon informing the Red Sox of the same thing a few years back), and although the Mariners have not commented, they promptly cut closer candidate Tyler Walker, delayed sending Morrow to AAA to build himself up as a starter, and are very mum all of a sudden on what’s going on.

I’ve had two drafts in the past week and both have seen a bunch of Mariners get picked just-in-case…if I were you, I’d pick Morrow, but not too high, and grab Batista as a handcuff pick; he seems to be the guy who will pitch if Morrow is sidelined, or can’t go. David Aardsma has had an excellent spring to pitch himself into the competition, but they seem higher on Batista than Mr. Aardvark.

Two other teams still haven’t said anything – the Cardinals (who seem to be favoring Jason Motte, but Chris Perez and Ryan Franklin are in the mix there as well) and the Rockies (who are having an open competition between newly acquired Huston Street and last year’s closer-in-waiting, Manuel Corpas. Again, my drafts saw all five of those team’s candidates taken, just in case. Unlike Marmol, however, none are really worth owning if they aren’t the closer. But I’d grab Motte and Perez, and Corpas.

Written by Jesse Mendelson · Filed Under Blog | 2 Comments 

Deep Sleepers For NL-Only Leagues

March 29, 2009

There are sleepers, and then there are  guys in hibernation.  Some of these more obscure players have hidden value that could help your fantasy baseball team.  These players, often called deep sleepers, should be taken only at the end of a draft, or for a few bucks in an auction.  It is always good to fill out your roster with players that have some upside potential.  Consider the following players deep sleepers for NL-only leagues.

1) Mike Fontenot

Fontenot will start at second base for the Chicago Cubs, taking over for Mark DeRosa.  In limited playing time last seasons, Fontenot displayed good pop (9 homers in 243 at-bats) and a solid batting average (.305).  He’s a former first round pick with nondescript minor league numbers.  In a full season he could hit up to 12-15 homers with a .275 batting average.  He will cost $1 or $2 on draft day, which is good value at a weak position.

2) Andy LaRoche

Formerly a top prospect, LaRoche was a trendy sleeper pick in 2008, but has found himself in the proverbial Roto dog house in 2009 after hitting an ugly .166 last year.  Yet, LaRoche is still an immense talent.  His minor league stats are illustrative.  In 2007, he hit 18 homers with a .309 batting average and .399 OBP% in only 265 at-bats.  He had similar homer totals, with many more at-bats, in 2006.  LaRoche will be the Pirates starting third basemen in 2009 and will have a chance to redeem his abysmal 2008 performance  and realize the talent many once projected for him. 

3) Emmanuel Burris

Burris has the inside track on the starting second basemen job for the Giants and could provide your team with a bundle of stolen bases.  In limited playing time in 2008, Burris held his own, hitting .283 with 13 steals.  But his minor league stats provide a glimpse of his real potential.  For example, in 2007 Burris hit .278 with 68 steals.  If he holds down the job for a full season, Burris could easily steal 30 or more bases in the Bigs.

4) Khalil Greene

Just a year ago Greene was considered a top power option at shortstop, but a disastrous 2008 season has relegated him to the bottom of the player rankings. Yet, Greene remains an intriguing late round option; anyone who can hit 27 homers in Petco Park is capable of doing well at any park in the country.  In 2009 Greene will be manning shortstop for the Cardinals, and will be hitting alongside the likes of Albert Pujols, Ryan Ludwick, Troy Glaus, and Rick Ankiel.  He’s no friend to your batting average, but he  may rebound and hit 15-20 homers in 2009. 

5) Ryan Spilborghs

Spilborghs is arguably a regular sleeper and not a deep sleeper, but many still consider him only a part-time player, which is lowering his average draft position.  But Spilborghs is projected to start in centerfield for the Rockies, and over a full year, could hit .300-15-85-10-80.  Sounds crazy, but take a look at both his major and minor league past performance.  In 497 major league at-bats over the past two years, Spilborghs hit 17 homers with 87 RBI’s, 11 steals, 78 runs scored and ~ a .306 batting average.  He routinely hit north of .300 in the minors (.340 in ‘05, .338 in ‘06, .323 in ‘07), and there’s no reason to expect his performance in Coors to be much different.

6) Nyjer Morgan

Morgan is likely to win the battle he is fighting with Eric Hinske for the starting left field job in Pittsburgh.  If Morgan does, in fact, win the job, he could be a speed demon on the base paths.  Last season he stole nine bases in 58 games in the majors, and an additional 44 in Triple A.  He’s a contact hitter and usually hits for a high batting average.  Depending on playing time, his stolen bases could look at lowly as Endy Chavez’s, or as high as Juan Pierre’s. 

7) Chris Dickerson

If you’re looking for an unknown power-speed stud, Dickerson could be your guy.  He is slated to start in left field for the Reds, but may ride the pine against lefties until he proves he can hit them better.  In the minors, Dickerson hit .287 with 11 homers in 349 at-bats and stole 26 bases in Triple A in 2008.  In previous years, he displayed similar power and speed, but his batting average was scary (.236 in ‘05, .242 in ‘06).  He also swings and misses more than a blind prize fighter (e.g. 162 strikeouts in 468 at-bats in 2007).  Expect him to struggle with his average in ‘09, but he could be a cheap source of power and speed.

The late rounds of a draft are a great time to gamble on players with upside.  Instead of merely drafting a player who won’t hurt you, consider drafting one of these players — or others — who have upside.  Happy hunting.

Written by Evan Rosen · Filed Under Blog, Draft Strategy | Leave a Comment