How To Identify A Sleeper, Part II

March 27, 2009

Yesterday I discussed a basic technique for identifying a sleeper: find a player who performed well in limited playing time, and is now set to start the season as a full-time player.  Today, I reveal technique numero dos: Read more

Written by Evan Rosen · Filed Under Blog, Draft Strategy | Leave a Comment 

Nationals’ Depth Chart Comes Into Focus

March 27, 2009

Boasting a plethora of mediocre fantasy outfielders and first basemen, it was hard to predict who would start for the Nationals come opening day.  But with the season only a few days away, Manager Manny Acta has apparently made several decisions that could impact your player rankings.

First, Adam Dunn will play in the outfield, which means Nick Johnson will start at first base.  As we say in law, caveat emptor (buyer beware); Johnson is a huge injury risk and cannot be counted on to play a full season.  In fact, Johnson’s been in the majors since 2001 and he’s never had more than 500 at-bats. 

Johnson remains talented and capable of putting up solid numbers — if he plays.  His 2006 season is illustrative.  In 500 at-bats, he hit .290 with 23 homers, 77 RBI’s, 10 steals, and 100 Runs. Over the past two years, however, Johnson’s played in only 38 games.  I’d ignore him in 10-12 team mixed leagues, but consider him as a late round pick in NL only leagues. 

Second, Josh Willingham, Austin Kearns, and Wily Mo Pena will start the year on the bench.  This is no surprise for Kearns (whose injury history is not much better than Johnson’s) after hitting  an ugly .217 last season.  Likewise, Willy Mo Pena didn’t exactly light it up last year on his way to a .205 batting average, and may not even make the 25-man roster.  But it is a bit surprising for Willingham, whom the Nats acquired to bat in the middle of their lineup.  Willingham hit 15 homers in only 351 at-bats last year, and smacked 21 and 26 in 2007 and 2006 respectively.  IfWhen Johnson gets hurt, Willingham will see playing time, and should get at least 350 at-bats in ‘08 and amass double digit homers.

Third, Elijah Dukes and Lastings Milledge will start in the outfield.  As we’ve noted previously, Dukes could be a sleeper this year.  He hit 10 homers in 184 at-bats in ‘07, and 13 homers in 278 at-bats in ‘08.  He also has some speed, as evidenced by his 13 steals last year.  The key question for Dukes is whether he can stay healthy and out of trouble.  Likewise, Milledge should continue to improve and provide power and speed for your team.

Fourth, what’s the deal with Dmitri Young?  Young stepped in for an injury Nick Johnson in 2007 and hit .320-13-74-0-57.  Last season, Young continued smacking the ball, notching a .280 average before getting sidelined by a hip injury.  With Nick Johnson starting at first, and Adam Dunn and Josh Willingham both capable of playing the position, where does Dmitri Young fit into the Nationals’ plans?  Apparently, he will make the 25-man roster, but don’t expect him to get too many opportunities to contribute to your fantasy baseball team.  Stay away unless injuries provide an opening for him to get playing time.

Written by Evan Rosen · Filed Under Blog | Leave a Comment