h2h Corner ~ Low Maintenance Fantasy Leagues

March 26, 2009

Everyone likes “low maintenance” now-a-days, whether that be wireless controllers with battery chargers, swipe cards, significant others or shower cleaners. Read more

Written by Albert Lang · Filed Under Blog, Miscellaneous | 8 Comments 

Is Ivan Rodriguez Worth Drafting?

March 26, 2009

What’s the deal with Ivan Rodriguez?  Two weeks ago he was unemployed, another victim of 8 years of failed economic polices.  Today, he is the starting catcher for the Houston Astros and will likely bat second when the season opens.  Not a bad reversal of fortune.  What can we expect for Pudge in 2009?

In 2008, Pudge batted .276 with 7 home runs and and 35 runs batted in.  He even threw in 10 steals for good measure.  Not bad for a second catcher in deeper leagues, but certainly not a “draft day steal.”  While bounceback years for 37 year old catchers aren’t exactly common (which is being generous), Pudge should have one more strong offensive season in his tank.  

First, the starting catcher’s job is firmly his.  J.R. Towles appears to be another member of Houston’s overhyped minor league catchers’ club.   Yes, I am referring to John Buck.  Second, only two years ago, he hit over .280 with double digit homeruns and drove in over 60 runs.  Playing in hitter friendly Minute Maid Park, which is about the size of a highschool baseball field, should improve Pudge’s offensive production.  Finally, he should be seeing a lot of fast balls hitting between Kaz Matsui and Lance Berkman.  A spike in runs scored is a definite possibility.

At the age of 37 and having spent nearly 2200 games behind the plate, Pudge has some put some serious mileage on his body.  At the same time, injuries have never been an issue.  There is no reason to believe that this is the year when they finally catch up to him.

In 2009, Pudge should return to the steady offensive production we have grown accustomed to for the past 18 year.  Expect numbers similar, if not slightly better, than his 2007 season.  Pudge certainly has the potential to be a late round bargain.

Written by Keith Reinfeld · Filed Under Blog, Player News | Leave a Comment 

Is Curt Schilling Hall Of Fame Bound?

March 26, 2009

I dislike Curt Schilling. That said, he was unquestionably one of the best pitchers of this generation — and, of course, the whole “bloody sock” game cemented his place in baseball lore forever. I saw a stat on ESPN’s ticker recently that said Schilling is the ALL-TIME leader in post-season ERA (min. 15 starts) with a sterling 2.23 mark. That is just plain impressive no matter how you slice it.  With Schilling’s retirement announcement earlier this week, speculation begins anew as to his credentials for the Hall of Fame.

Here’s a comparison for you guys that are into baseball history. I see Schilling as this generation’s version of Juan Marichal. They looked very different on the mound for sure, so I’m not saying they’re similar at all in that way–but the results they got were quite similar. More importantly, both of them finished second in the Cy Young race multiple times without ever actually winning the coveted award. Marichal was overshadowed by Sandy Koufax and Bob Gibson. Schilling was likewise pushed aside by Roger Clemens and the Big Unit. Marichal had to wait a few years to finally get into the Hall of Fame (I think he should have been first-ballot, but no point in quibbling about that now). I believe Schilling will also have to wait a few years, but his ultimate selection seems pretty secure to me.

As an aside, I think Bert Blyleven should go into the Hall first, but how much respect can you really have for a Hall of Fame that inducted Freddy “bleepin’” Lindstrom over 30 years ago but hasn’t yet inducted Ron Santo or Ken Boyer. Or, how about having Jesse Haines, Rube Marquard, and Eppa Rixey as members, but not Bert Blyleven, Tommy John, or Jim Kaat?

You can look this one up: Bill Madlock’s career statistics are quite comparable to Lindstrom’s. His lifetime BA is six points lower, but if you adjust for the era they played in it’s pretty obvious that Madlock’s performance was more impressive. For what it’s worth if you neutralize their career stats on BaseballReference.com, Madlock comes out nine points ahead. Also, Madlock had a longer career with almost 1000 more lifetime at-bats, more homers, twice as many steals, more runs scored, more RBI’s, you name it. Madlock also won FOUR batting titles; Lindstrom never led the league in anything except hits once (in 1928). As much as I like Madlock, however, he definitely is not, nor has he ever been, my idea of a Hall of Famer. It still deeply offends me as a baseball fan that Lindstrom was elected. The guy had only SEVEN seasons of more than 500 at-bats for Christ-sakes AND he never led the league in anything except hits once. How in the hell can somebody like that be a Hall of Famer?! I know Frankie Frisch is to blame.

Two of my favorite players of the past 15+ years are Moises Alou and Kenny Lofton. Even though I’m certainly rooting for both of them, I don’t see either one of them as a viable Hall of Famer. It is a fact, however, that both were MUCH better players than Edd Rousch, Ross Youngs, Chick Hafey, and Lloyd Waner who have all been enshrined for decades.

Written by James Chang · Filed Under Miscellaneous | Leave a Comment 

How To Identify A Sleeper, Part I

March 26, 2009

Scores of fantasy baseball websites, including Fantasy Baseball 101, list sleepers for you to consider on draft day.  Indeed, this time next year some will gloat about their expert intuition, while others hide in shame following their erroneous 2009 selections.  But there’s no need to rely entirely on the experts.  You can — and should — identify your own sleepers. 

In a three-part series, I explore a couple of basic techniques for identifying sleeper candidates.  There are other more advanced techniques, but master these two and you’ll be well on your way to a successful fantasy baseball season.

But first, what is a sleeper?  According to Roto guru Russell Sandman, a sleeper is “a player that is likely to fly under the majority’s radar, yet is apt to have an exceptional statistical season.”   With that definition in mind, let’s learn the ways of the force.

The Graduate Theory

Under this theory, a part-time player who graduates to a full-time role should see an increase in his overall stats.  Here’s what to do.  Step one, find a player who is slotted to become a full-time starter after one or more years of riding the pine.  Step two, make sure the player did very well in limited playing time, and ensure that his performance was during a sufficient sample size  (ideally 150-350 at-bats).  Step three, project that player’s stats over 600 at-bats.  The projection is a rough estimate of what the player is capable of if he keeps up that performance over a full season.  Whallah – you now have your sleeper! 

Here are some some real life examples.  Corey Hart hit 9 homers in 237 at-bats in 2006.  It was, therefore, unsurprising when he slugged 24 homers in 505 at-bats in 2007.  Similarly, Ryan Ludwick hit 14 homers in 303 at-bats in 2007, and slammed 37 homers in 538 at-bats in 2008.    Likewise, Carlos Gomezstole 12 bases in 58 games in 2007, and increased his steals to 33 in 153 games in 2008.  Want more?  Take a look at the home runs of Rick Ankiel (’07-’08), Matt Kemp (’07-’08), Nick Markakis (’06-’07), Josh Hamilton (’07-’08), and Mark Reynolds (’07-’08)

This strategy, however, is not foolproof.  Some players do not experience any additional benefit from extra playing time.  For example, a right-handed hitter who cannot hit right-handed pitchers well, may hit 15 homers in 200 at-bats, but that won’t morph into 40 homers merely by getting more playing time.  Instead, that player will only succeed when facing southpaws.  Others, simply don’t have the stamina to play at a high level over a 162 game season.  Perhaps these reasons explain why Josh Phelps never benefited from additional playing time, or why Kevin Maas didn’t become a major league fixture after his star-studded rookie season. 

Despite the risk, this technique is easy to use.  Players to consider for this season include, among others, Mike Napoli (hits both righties and lefties well and had 20 hr in 227 at-bats); Chris Davis (17 homers in 295 at-bats), Jeff Baker (12 homers in 299 at-bats), Elijah Dukes (13 homers in 272 at-bats), Denard Span (18 SB in 347 at-bats) and, if he starts, Ryan Spilbourghs (6 homers, 7 steals in 233 at-bats).

In my next post, I’ll discuss a second technique for identifying sleepers.

Written by Evan Rosen · Filed Under Blog, Draft Strategy | Leave a Comment