h2h ADP Value Grab Bag III
March 23, 2009
Recently, I published the first and second installments of the h2h ADP value grab bag. For more information on ADP and how to use it, scroll to the bottom.
This series identifies players that, for whatever reason, are typically available later in drafts, but should provide their owners with better returns than their ADP would indicate.
On The Shelf- AL East Version
March 23, 2009
I’d like to think I have a pretty good life.
My Boston Bruins are in first place. Kevin Garnett is back for the Celtics. My business is making money and my credit card debt is zero. So why do I feel a little depressed?
I’ll tell you why. Last week, at this time, I was in Aruba, that’s right, ARUBA. White sands, blue water, sipping drinks next t
o a bronzed Italian man named Johnny – Johnny who got up at 3:30 AM to get a hut oceanside and started drinking vodka and pink lemonades at 8:30 in the morning, all the while smoking a Cuban cigar. I gotta tell you, Johnny is a hell of a guy – will give you the shirt off his back, a Cuban to light up, and a Grey Goose and lemonade to sip on. Johnny, however, has one big, BIG flaw – he’s a Yankee fan. Loses major points for that one – back to Johnny in a bit.
Without further ado, onto the latest in your MLB injury news:
Oh, before we get to that, just a quick point of reference – the more stars, the greater the injury, and thus, greater the fantasy risk. Also, we’re only going to be focusing on “fantasy-relevant” players, so please don’t send comments that you didn’t see Ryan Feierabend on my lists… got it?
Baltimore Orioles
Brad Hennessey – The former Giants first round pick will begin the 2009 campaign on the DL with elbow soreness. He received a cortisone shot on March 7, but should not be on any fantasy rosters, even the deepest of AL-only rosters, with a 4.69 career ERA – **
Rich Hill – Plenty of upside, but last season turned a lot, and I mean A LOT of fantasy players off from Hill. He’s just been far too inconsistent, and should also be avoided, especially now that he’s sporting a stiff pitching elbow – ** for the injury, **** for the draft
Melvin Mora – The O’s starting third baseman had a tough time running the bases last week with slight hamstring tightness. Mora’s power numbers have declined a little bit, but his RBI are up and his average is steady. Expect around .280/25/95/5 from Mora with a rebuilding Orioles team around him – 1/2*
Boston Red Sox
Dustin Pedroia – The reigning AL MVP strained his abdominal muscle while playing for Team USA in the World Baseball Classic. Red Sox Nation feared the worse, but Pedroia returned to action this past week and looked just fine. Draft him with confidence.
Kevin Youkilis – I’ve been cursing the WBC for the past week now. First Pedroia, then Youkilis. “Youk” was wearing a protective boot on his left foot to stabilize his sprained ankle. The AP is suggesting Youkilis could be ready to play in a pre-season game as early as Monday. Again, draft with confidence – 1/2 *
J.D. Drew – Here we go again Sox fans. Which Drew are we going to get, the 2007 ALCS hero, or the oft-injured Drew that we cringe about on a daily basis? It’s J.D.’s hand this time, and it’s only bruised, but we’ve come to expect this, haven’t we? Mark Kotsay and Rocco Baldelli aren’t much better choices in the Red Sox outfield, so I’ll give Drew a ** ranking for historical purposes and pray for the future.
John Smoltz – Look for a mid-season return for the 41 year-old Smoltz. Reports coming out of Fort Myers say Smoltz is looking fantastic following a repair of the right labrum in his shoulder by Dr. James Andrews in June of 2008. Target middle to late May for his return to the Sox active roster, but be unsure about his role. 5th starter or relief? Only Terry Francona and Smoltz will really know, but as a Sox fan, I’m sure excited to find out. Draft with cautious optimism – ** to *** 1/2*
Julio Lugo – Lugo made Terry Francona’s job very easy in the shortstop battle at Red Sox training camp. Barring a preseason trade, Jed Lowrie will be the Red Sox starting shortstop, relegating Lugo to a bench role when he returns to full health. A right knee meniscus tear will sideline Lugo for about a month, making a May return likely. Your fantasy roster, can do better, however, than both Lugo or Lowrie – ***
Mike Lowell – The injury parade continues for the Red Sox, as their starting third baseman is still fighting a hip injury. He claims he’s good to go, but age may be starting to catch up with Lowell. If he stays healthy, though, he’s a late round steal at a thin position – ** to **1/2*
New York Yankees
Alex Rodriguez – Let’s get the big one out of the way first. A-Rod will be out for another 4-6 weeks following surgery to repair his right hip labrum. Obviously, this has dropped his draft status by about 1 round, so if you can live with 5 months of A-Rod as opposed to 6, then feel free to draft him high. Personally, I’m staying away from him due to the media surrounding him following his “A-Roid” admission (check out picture #12), but if he’s available in round 3, I’m taking him. After all, isn’t .300/30/95/95/10 a pretty good 5 months of work? *** for the injury, ½* for the reward.
Jorge Posada – The Yanks are handling Posada with kid gloves following right shoulder surgery this past July. Defensively, his shoulder may be a little behind schedule, but we don’t pay to see his defense in our fantasy leagues, do we? He’s still a decent middle to late round catcher in mixed leagues and may surprise some this year. Then again, how old is he, like 45? No really, how old? Fine, 37 it is – **
Hideki Matsui and Nick Swisher – I’m lumping these two together due to Matsui’s recent history of injuries and Swisher’s positional question mark. With Mark Teixeira holding down first base with a big briefcase full of 180 million one dollar bills, and Johnny Damon, Melky Cabrera, Brett Gardner, and Xavier Nady in the outfield, Swisher and Matsui seem to be the odd men out. Maybe they split time at the DH position? *
Tampa Bay Rays
B.J. Upton – Upton was hit by a pitch on his left hand in Saturday’s Spring Training game. X-rays were negative, but the combo platter of the HBP and his recovery from off-season left shoulder surgery has pushed Upton from Joe Maddon’s Opening Day starting lineup. It’s too bad too; he was progressing very nicely from the surgery, reporting no issues with the shoulder. Still, his draft status should be dropped just a little bit due to his increasing propensity for injury - ** to ***
Carlos Pena – Pena is fully recovered from the abdominal strain that kept him from fully participating in spring training earlier this month. Draft with confidence – ½*
Toronto Blue Jays
Vernon Wells – Wells has been hampered by a sore hamstring which may limit him to DH’ing duties. Again, how old is this guy… seems like he’s been around FOREVER, but he’s only 30. He should bounce back just fine, though be weary that last year was the first year he didn’t play at least 131 games in the past seven years – ½*
Scott Downs – The Blue Jays set-up man has been brought along slowly due to a sore elbow. Honestly, he should only be drafted in deeper AL-only leagues due to B.J. Ryan’s stranglehold on the closer job in Toronto. Still, be cautious, as there are better set-up men on better teams at the same price as Downs would be – **
Scott Rolen – Another high-risk, high-reward third basemen. Like Mike Lowell, Rolen didn’t get the injury bug immunization when he was drafted. So, like Lowell, he’s got tons of talent, but also misses tons of time. When healthy, you’ll get .275/23/90/80; when not, you’ll get a new third baseman off the waiver wire – ***
Back to Johnny. I personally, don’t smoke – never have, never will, not even a puff, so I can’t say that I didn’t inhale. I rarely drink before 2 pm, except maybe on the 4th of July – and God Bless America. And I sure don’t get up at 3:30 in the morning – except to fly to Aruba again.
I gave Johnny my business card when I said good-bye to him last week and I told him if he ever needed anything to give me a call, except Red Sox tickets….
Underrated Players, Part II
March 23, 2009
Yesterday, I profiled five players who are underrated in most fantasy baseball leagues. Today, I continue where I left off and profile another five. Read more
Did You Know…?
Rich Harden had the best K/9 rate (10.91) of any starting pitcher? He was followed by Tim Lincecum, Justin Verlander, Jon Lester, Gio Gonzalez, Yovani Gallardo and many others.
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