Joba Rules? What to Expect in 2009

March 22, 2009

Joba Chamberlain has been penciled in as the fifth starter in the Yankees’ rotation for the upcoming season. No one doubts that Joba has great stuff, nor is there any question that Joba can handle the pressure of pitching in New York. With that being said, two questions remain. The first, how is it possible that he could be dating a model? The second and I guess the slightly more relevant question, can he be a legitimate ace pitcher?

I wish I could confidently predict that Joba is going to win 18 games this year. I wish I could say that Joba is a lock for 200 plus strikeouts this season. I wish I could claim that Joba is going to show the world that fat kids can play baseball too. Unfortunately, I just don’t believe it’s going to happen.

Joba started only 12 games last year and pitched fairly well but certainly didn’t dominate like he had as a reliever. He displayed that he has a tendency to fall behind hitters and that he still lacks command over his slider and changeup. These would be normal problems for any 23 year old pitcher, but Joba doesn’t have the luxury of time. If he falters in the least bit, he will be back in the bullpen. There are just too many people in the Yankees organization, Joe Girardi included, who believe that he’s more valuable as a reliever. Considering that that the Yanks don’t have a proven setup man, I would be shocked if they don’t jump on the chance to move him to the bullpen after a few bad starts. My guess is that he will be dominating the seventh and eight innings by the all-star break.

Don’t be tricked into spending a high draft pick on Joba. He should be treated as a top middle reliever and that’s all. At this point, Joba’s value lies in his status as the heir apparent to Mariano Rivera. This year, however, its doubtful that Joba is going to be a fantasy stud.