The 2009 Coulda, Woulda, Shoulda Team

March 19, 2009

Top prospect. The term alone generates a frenzied excitement that is palpable on draft day. Who will get the stud prospect? Do others know about him? How will he do this season? Just about everyone who has played fantasy baseball has drafted hyped-up rookie prospects that never amounted to more than a used Kleenex. Since we’ve all been burned, I created this list to help us all commiserate. Without further ado, here is my list of top prospects that are still playing, but have not lived up to our expectations.

C. JR Towles
This top prospect for the ‘Stros began ’08 as the starting catcher, but hit a microscopic .137. There’s still time for him to turn it around, but he burned many of us last year after receiving top prospect billing. With the signing of Pudge Rodriguez, it looks like another year toiling away in the minors for Towles.

1B. Josh Phelps
In 2002, Phelps hit .309 with 15 homers in only 265 at-bats for the Blue Jays. Projecting that over a full season, many drafted him the following year and assumed he’d hit 30+ homers. Instead, Phelps hit .268 and struggled to hit 20 homers. As a result, teams were left scrounging for homers they thought were already secured.

2B. Matt Antonelli
Nobody received more hype than Antonelli at last year’s First Pitch, a conference of fantasy baseball experts and fans. Antonelli will start at second for the Padres and be a five category stud, the experts cooed. Yet, Antonelli could never claim the job, and performed so poorly in the minors that scouts wonder if he’ll ever regain the “prospect” label, let alone “top” prospect.

SS. Brent Lillibridge
Lillibridge put up good numbers in the minors and was called up to the Braves big league team mid-last season. Yet, he hit only .200 in 80 major league at-bats, and also struggled in Triple A. He fell out of favor with the Braves and was traded to the White Sox in the offseason. The Sox don’t have a lot of depth in the middle infield, so there’s still hope for Lillibridge to improve.

3B. Andy Marte
The Hensley “Bam Bam” Meulens of his day, Marte was once the number one prospect in the minors, but has yet to establish himself as a major leaguer after four seasons of trying. In limited playing time with the Indians over the past three years, he hit .226, .193 and .221 respectively. He’s only 25, but he’s already running out of chances and is no longer referred to as a top prospect.

OF. Chris Burke
Once groomed as the replacement for Craig Biggio, Burke has never hit with enough consistency to snag a starting role. He showed some promise in 2006 (hitting .276-9-40-11-58 in only 366 at-bats) and I considered him a big time sleeper in 2007. I was wrong. Burke hit a woeful .229 in ’07, and followed up that exemplary performance with a .194 batting average in 2008. Needless to say, you don’t survive long in the Bigs when you hover around the Mendoza line.

OF. Felix Pie
Perhaps this is unfair. After all, Pie is only 24 and has never truly been given a chance to start. Yet, the Wrigley faithful hyped him up for years, which only exacerbated the sound of the whooshing air after yet another strikeout. Lou Pinella tried to ease him into the majors in 2007, but Pie only hit .215 with 43 strikeouts in 177 at-bats. A similar story was told in 2008; Pie hit .241 with 29 strikeouts in 83 at-bats. Now in Baltimore, Pie will battle super subs Ty Wigginton and Ryan Freel for playing time.

OF. Willy Mo Pena
Unadulterated pure power is how scouts described Pena. Unable to establish himself in a crowded Cincinnati outfield, he later played for the Red Sox where he performed well in limited time. Pena’s .301 average and 11 homers in 276 at-bats led many fantasy baseball managers to acquire him in 2007 when he was slotted in to start for the Washington Nationals. Yet, Pena hit only .253 and a few injuries later, managed to cobble together 13 homers in 289 at-bats. Last year was another step backwards, as Pena was limited to 195 at-bats and hit only .205 with 2 homers. Now Pena faces the challenge of finding playing time on a team that has Josh Willingham, Elijah Dukes, Dmitri Young, Lastings Milledge, and Willie Harris.

SP. Zach Duke
Remember when Duke had a 1.81 ERA for the Pirates in 2005? Yeah, that was a long time ago. Since teasing fantasy owners with his potential, Duke has put up ERA’s of 4.47, 5.53, and 4.82 over the past three seasons.

SP. Clay Buchholz
Prior to 2008 the big debate was who’s a better bet: Buchholz or Joba Chamberlain. Answer: Chamberlain by a landslide. Buchholz struggled to a 6.75 ERA and 1.76 WHIP in 76 innings pitched. He has a ton of talent, so it is WAY too early to call him a bust.  But many who were burned last season will be more hesitant to give him another chance in 2009.

SP. Andrew Miller
A former first round pick, Miller was touted by many as a left-handed Josh Beckett. He got clobbered in 2007 while playing for the Tigers, but some thought a move to the National League would turn things around for Miller in ’08. Unfortunately, Miller got shelled with a 5.87 ERA and 1.64 WHIP, largely because of poor control. Like Buchholz, it is too early to give up on Miller. Left-handers that throw in the high 90’s are exceedingly rare, and Miller is only 23 years old. Pitchers often take longer to develop (remember Greg Maddux and John Smoltz’s  first few seasons?), so be patient with this one.

SP. Phil Hughes
The Yankees answer to Clay Buchholz, Hughes mimicked his Red Sox counterpart more than fantasy baseball managers would have liked. He put up an ugly 6.62 ERA and 1.71 WHIP, and struggled with injuries all season long. But there’s reason for hope. After coming off the DL in September, Hughes had a 2.25 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in 12 innings. He also performed well in the Arizona Fall League. Watch him in spring training – now may be a good time to buy low.

SP. Edwin Jackson
A former top prospect, Jackson hasn’t had a good year since. . . well. . . . ever. Over the past three years, he’s posted ERA’s of 5.45, 5.76, and 4.42, with WHIPs in the 1.51 to 1.84 range. He flirted with success in the first half of ’08, but a second half collapse gives us no hope that he will ever discover the promise of his potential.

P. Homer Bailey
Ranked by many as the top pitching prospect going into the 2008 season, Bailey was eclipsed in the rotation by teammates Edinson Volquez and Johnny Cueto. Bailey struggled to a 7.93 ERA with the Reds in ‘08, and even had an ERA close to 5.00 in Triple A. He’s only 22, but unless he turns things around fast, he will become a textbook example of a player who dominates in the minors, but fails to deliver in the majors.

P. Dan Meyer
The former top pitching prospect of the Oakland A’s, Meyer has a history of arm trouble and has failed to dominate hitters like scouts expected. Looking at his stats, one has to wonder if Jose Canseco would fare better on the mound. Over the past two seasons, Meyer has put up ERA’s of 8.82 and 7.48 – and no, those aren’t typos. Now 27, his minor league glory is unlikely to keep him in the majors much longer.

Honorable Mentions: Andy LaRoche (not a dud yet and having a good spring), Dan Johnson (had one good year for the A’s in limited playing time, flopped as a starter), Dallas McPherson (could have a Jorge Cantu-like reincarnation in Florida)

Anyone missing from the team?  Share your thoughts in the comments.  Keep in mind, the person must still be playing in the Bigs.

Written by Evan Rosen · Filed Under Miscellaneous | 5 Comments