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Draft Analysis: #10-20 on the Big Board

March 12, 2009

So are you ready for part II of the Mixed-League Draft Analysis? I should preface this report by stating that the rankings are not FB101’s rankings – but they are the averaged results of live drafts on a certain other major website. The follow are #10-20 on the big board –

10. Johan Santana – Johan is still the top pitcher in the Bigs until Lincecum establishes himself beyond the ’08 season. The resume is unquestioned, but the off-season knee surgery will off-put some prospective takers. But don’t expect a bargain – he’s still Johan.

11. Tim Lincecum – Tim Lincecum was statistically head and shoulders above all other pitchers in the Bigs in 2008 and the unquestioned Cy Young award winner of the NL. He appropriately rests below Johan Santana until such time as another full season of production proves his durability.

12. Dustin Pedroia – Reigning AL MVP Dustin Pedroia is far too high on the list at number twelve. Unless your league factors in OBP, this spot on the leader board overestimates Pedroia’s offensive capabilities in standard and 5×5 formats.

13. CC Sabathia – Sabathia’s signing with the Yankees all but assured CC of a top spot entering 2009. His stellar contract season in ’08 further legitimizes placement among the top pitchers in the Majors, but we aren’t sure a move back to the AL where Sabathia was knocked around as an Indian will be a positive thing. In other words, don’t bet on that Milwaukee ERA and WHIP following him to the new Yankee Stadium.

14. Chase Utley – He went from “might miss a significant chunk of the season” to “likely ready by opening day” after hip surgery. Uncertainty surrounds his health and the after-effects of the surgery, but when Chase is healthy – there is no better bat at second base. I am not sure about his placement in the live draft here, I might wait on him to drop a little more.

15. Ryan Howard – This seems reasonable. I loathe his record-setting whiff totals and lack of offensive development (see past three seasons of regression). But, there probably is no better slugger in Fantasyball than Howard. At least you can rely upon top marks in HR and RBI.

16. Manny Ramirez – Mr. Controversy is fairly accurately placed here. Some might argue that last season’s offensive surge demands higher placement than #16 and that his average bumps him above the likes of Ryan Howard. There is room for debate there, but I am comfortable with Manny here.

17. Josh Hamilton – I realize many (or even most) Fantasy GMs may think this is reasonable, but I think Hamilton is too high here. Yes, I know what he did last season and yes, I recall his superhuman showing at home run derby. But, he has almost no pedigree of Major League success and one full season upon which to base any statistical predictions.

18. Lance Berkman – The stolen base totals may not be real, and if they are not, there are better selections than Berkman for the 18 spot. The power is legit and the average a boon to any fantasy team, but just not worthy of a pick right here.

19. Carlos Lee – If Lee had not been hit by that pitch and had not missed the last chunk of the season, you might have seen him finally crack the top 10 or 15. He did not though, and even his best statistical season to this point would not earn a spot in the top 10, so we are comfortable with him around here, but not below Hamilton or Berkman.

20. Alfonso Soriano – Depends on your league format, but I think Soriano is too low here. Let’s not forget that Alfonso Soriano is the only player to defeat RFK Stadium. He’s only two years separated from a 40/40 season and you have to think that a big offensive year will eventually happen at Wrigley in the supercharged Cub lineup. I concede that the speed may not return to 2006 levels, but 20+ makes him a huge value at this spot in the draft.

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Written by Russ · Filed Under Articles, Draft Strategy  | 13 Comments »

Comments

13 Responses to “Draft Analysis: #10-20 on the Big Board”

  1. Greg Huddle on March 12th, 2009 9:00 am

    2. I agree with you 100% about Pedroia. He’s a good player, but no way I take him there. If he’s healthy, i’d prefer Utley, or perhaps even Kinsler. I also wonder how Manny will do in LA. He did great at the end of the year, but can he put up huge numbers in a pitcher’s park?

  2. Albert Lang on March 12th, 2009 10:24 am

    3. I approach rankings from an h2h perspective. I move Johan to the end of the second round and Lincecum to the third, CC to the fourth (so many innings, the best of which were against the NL). I also dont love Manny or Soriano that high. I think Beltran is what everyone hopes Soriano to be….i love Beltran.

    Also Ryan Howard doesn’t hurt you as much in an h2h league (you get him and Adam Dunn, forget about BA, but also you don’t have to worry about HRs).

    I like Holliday in the late second (his road splits arent that bad and improve as road trips are prolonged) also Teixeira, Adrian Gonzalez, Kinsler (over Pedroia), Josh Hamilton as well.

  3. Jesse Mendelson on March 12th, 2009 12:25 pm

    4. You say that many of the players here are ranked too high…but it would also be helpful to know who you would draft in their place. Pedroia, Sabathia, Utley, Hamilton, Berkman and Lee are all – according to you – too high here. So who do you replace them with?

  4. Albert Lang on March 12th, 2009 1:51 pm

    5. I think Utley is a top 10 player or so (i didn’t meant to suggest i thought Hamilton, Berkman or Mr consistency Lee were too high) Sorry i wasnt clear.

    My top 20 for h2h (it changes for roto):

    1. Wright
    2. Sizemore
    3. Hanley
    4. Jose Reyes (had AROD 5)
    5. Pujols
    6. Utley
    7. Rollins
    8. Braun
    9. Beltran
    10. Howard
    11. Mark Teixeira
    12. Ian Kinsler
    13.Lance Berkman
    14. Adrian Gonzalez
    15. Matt Holliday
    16. Josh Hamilton
    17. Miguel Cabrera
    18. Carlos Lee
    19. John Santana
    20. Matt Kemp

    Not sure why i went with two names later in the order…maybe b/c they aren’t high enough profile (j/k).

    Incidentally, i have Soriano at 30 and Manny at 31, so we’re talking one round. I guess i don’t believe much in Pedroia (it takes two years), i have Roberts higher than him. I’d also wait and just take Uggla.

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