Sleeping Giants

March 12, 2009

Sleepers are more than just those beds you see on the late night infomercials, they could be the backbone of your team and take you to fantasy prominence.  Those fantasy team owners who can pick out the diamond in the ruff are few and far between.  It basically comes down to a gamble or a chance.  Sometimes it’s a gem, sometimes it’s just coal.  

From the title of the article you can probably see where I am going with this.  I am hopefully going to separate the players who are on the verge of waking up and the ones who are going to sleep right on through the season.  Below are my top 5 hitters and pitching sleepers just itching to breakout this season.  With these tips you will look like Nostradamus to your friends and colleagues. 

Pitchers:

1. David Price, TB

He impressed during Tampa Bay’s magical run to the World Series, but now the shutdown reliever will get a chance to start.  He posted a 1.93 ERA and 12 strikeouts in 14 innings.  I know the sample size is small, but he could have a monster year and is worth a late pick.  

2.  Chris Volstad, FLA

He was 6-4 with a 2.88 ERA in his brief stint with the Marlins.  The 6′8″ righty has devastating stuff but with their relatively weak lineup it is difficult to accumulate wins.  If his run support increases, look for Volstad to win more games and be one of the better pitchers in the National League. 

3.  Sean Gallagher, Oak

I know, his stats aren’t pretty, but hear me out first.  Last season Gallagher made the transition from a relief pitcher to a starter, all while being traded from the Cubs.  He also had to change leagues and locations which took him time to adjust.  At only 23 years old, he will be given many opportunities to start for the A’s.  Oakland is a team known for taking average players and turning them into all-stars.  He is worth a very late round flyer, especially in deep or AL only leagues. 

4.  Carlos Marmol, CHC

With Kerry Wood leaving town, Marmol will get a chance to close out games for the Cubs.  Any player closing for a Major League team is worth a roster spot, especially on a team that will win its share of games.  He had 114 K’s in only 87.1 innings and in my book, that’s pretty good. 

5.  Kenshin Kawakami, ATL

Many average fantasy players are going to be unfamiliar with this name due to his entire career was played in Japan.  In a completely retooled Atlanta rotation and team, Kawakami will win plenty of games and could also become one of the better pitchers in the National League. 

If you don’t think I am completely wrong already, below are my top 5 hitters, also in no particular order. 

Hitters:

1. Adam Jones, BAL

No, not that Adam Jones.  The young outfielder on the Baltimore Orioles who in especially deep leagues could be a valuable prize.  He has the potential to hit 10-15 home runs, steal 20 bases and bat just barely sub .300.  Jones will get plenty of opportunities to succeed and if he realizes his potential, become a very solid outfield option.

2. Jed Lowrie, BOS

He is not quite a household name yet, unless of course you live in Boston, but the 24 year old shortstop will get his first chance to start this year.  He does have a great deal of pop in his bat (25 doubles in 280 at bats)which places him higher than some other shortstops.  There is a chance that after the top 5 shortstops are taken, he will be available in the later rounds.  

3.  Kelly Shoppach, CLE

He may not be the number one catcher on the depth chart in Cleveland, but Victor Martinez will see a lot of time as DH and potentially playing first base.  With the aging Martinez, Shoppach will get plenty of opportunities to play.  Last year he hit 21 home runs in a part time role.  Due to his position on the depth chart, he should be available in the middle to late rounds.

4.  Pablo Sandoval, SF

The 23 year old third baseman out of Venezuela batted .345 last year in his little time with the Giants.  Of course, do not expect him to continue that high average, but I think he will end up with stats that hover around the .300 AVG, 20 HR, 80 RBI, 100 R.  Those numbers are definitely draft worthy.

5.  Nelson Cruz, TEX

Probably my favorite player out of the bunch, Cruz, batted .330 and hit 7 home runs in only a 115 at bats.  Texas has had major success with finding players to fill their outfield that come out of nowhere.  Josh Hamiltion and David Murphy being the two shining examples.  They must be doing something down there (cough…A-Rod…cough.  Sorry, too soon?).  Cruz has a solid chance to continue to put up big numbers in Texas and could be a draft day gem. 

 

If you have any thoughts on the picks or questions, feel free to leave a comment and I will be sure to respond.

-Bobby Holt

Written by Bobby Holt · Filed Under Draft Strategy | 4 Comments 

Draft Analysis: #10-20 on the Big Board

March 12, 2009

So are you ready for part II of the Mixed-League Draft Analysis? I should preface this report by stating that the rankings are not FB101’s rankings – but they are the averaged results of live drafts on a certain other major website. The follow are #10-20 on the big board –

10. Johan Santana – Johan is still the top pitcher in the Bigs until Lincecum establishes himself beyond the ’08 season. The resume is unquestioned, but the off-season knee surgery will off-put some prospective takers. But don’t expect a bargain – he’s still Johan.

11. Tim Lincecum – Tim Lincecum was statistically head and shoulders above all other pitchers in the Bigs in 2008 and the unquestioned Cy Young award winner of the NL. He appropriately rests below Johan Santana until such time as another full season of production proves his durability.

12. Dustin Pedroia – Reigning AL MVP Dustin Pedroia is far too high on the list at number twelve. Unless your league factors in OBP, this spot on the leader board overestimates Pedroia’s offensive capabilities in standard and 5×5 formats.

13. CC Sabathia – Sabathia’s signing with the Yankees all but assured CC of a top spot entering 2009. His stellar contract season in ’08 further legitimizes placement among the top pitchers in the Majors, but we aren’t sure a move back to the AL where Sabathia was knocked around as an Indian will be a positive thing. In other words, don’t bet on that Milwaukee ERA and WHIP following him to the new Yankee Stadium.

14. Chase Utley – He went from “might miss a significant chunk of the season” to “likely ready by opening day” after hip surgery. Uncertainty surrounds his health and the after-effects of the surgery, but when Chase is healthy – there is no better bat at second base. I am not sure about his placement in the live draft here, I might wait on him to drop a little more.

15. Ryan Howard – This seems reasonable. I loathe his record-setting whiff totals and lack of offensive development (see past three seasons of regression). But, there probably is no better slugger in Fantasyball than Howard. At least you can rely upon top marks in HR and RBI.

16. Manny Ramirez – Mr. Controversy is fairly accurately placed here. Some might argue that last season’s offensive surge demands higher placement than #16 and that his average bumps him above the likes of Ryan Howard. There is room for debate there, but I am comfortable with Manny here.

17. Josh Hamilton – I realize many (or even most) Fantasy GMs may think this is reasonable, but I think Hamilton is too high here. Yes, I know what he did last season and yes, I recall his superhuman showing at home run derby. But, he has almost no pedigree of Major League success and one full season upon which to base any statistical predictions.

18. Lance Berkman – The stolen base totals may not be real, and if they are not, there are better selections than Berkman for the 18 spot. The power is legit and the average a boon to any fantasy team, but just not worthy of a pick right here.

19. Carlos Lee – If Lee had not been hit by that pitch and had not missed the last chunk of the season, you might have seen him finally crack the top 10 or 15. He did not though, and even his best statistical season to this point would not earn a spot in the top 10, so we are comfortable with him around here, but not below Hamilton or Berkman.

20. Alfonso Soriano – Depends on your league format, but I think Soriano is too low here. Let’s not forget that Alfonso Soriano is the only player to defeat RFK Stadium. He’s only two years separated from a 40/40 season and you have to think that a big offensive year will eventually happen at Wrigley in the supercharged Cub lineup. I concede that the speed may not return to 2006 levels, but 20+ makes him a huge value at this spot in the draft.

Written by Russ · Filed Under Articles, Draft Strategy | 13 Comments