And With the Fourth Pick…
March 10, 2009
So there you are, surrounded by pre-draft snacks, refreshments and of course your lucky rabbit’s foot. You do a quick prayer to the fantasy baseball gods that all your sleepers turn into all-stars and carry your team to the promise land. ”Enter Draft” appears before your eyes as you glare across various rankings, spreadsheets and player analysis from Fantasybaseball101.com. As the draft room loads, you patiently wait to see what pick you will have. Holy Barry Bonds you mutter, as anticipation and excitement turn to dread as you see that fourth pick is all yours.
The fourth pick is certainly not the worst, but it is one of the most difficult. After the first three obvious picks of Hanley Ramirez, Albert Pujols and Alex Rodriguez (assuming that someone in the league is a Yankees fan) there is not much certainty or a definite pick. David Wright, Jose Reyes, Ryan Braun, Grady Sizemore or Johan Santana, if your league categories are favorable to pitchers, are all solid choices. Let me give you an example of what not to do with the fourth pick. In my most recent draft, the guy with the fourth pick decided to be daring and think outside the box, he drafted Roy Halladay (cue the Price is Right loser music). Of course Halladay is a great player, but drafting him fourth overall would be a mistake and one that I would not let him live down for the duration of the night. In the rest of this article I will give you, the soon to be fantasy guru, a few tips on what to do if you get the feared fourth pick and how to build a solid team in the early rounds.
With the fourth pick, that means your next four (in a snaking draft format) are: 17, 24, 37 and 44. With those five total picks, I will try to help you lead your team to fantasy greatness.
4. Jose Reyes, NYM (.297 AVG-16 HR-68 RBI-56 SB-113 R)
Arguable the second best shortstop in baseball, Reyes could turn into a five category monster. He not only steals bases but, with his potential move to the three hole in the Mets lineup he could drive in 90+ runs, hit 20-25 home runs, score a 100+ runs and bat .300. Those numbers, combined with the prospect of stealing 50+ bases, are scary for any team that passes him up and he should be the number four pick at a position lacking any sort of depth.
17. Ian Kinsler, Tex (.319 AVG-18 HR-71 RBI-26 SB-102 R)
Honorable Mention: Carlos Beltran, NYM
Addressing another position with very little depth, to me, is extremely important. I would rather have key players at all the positions with no back end (SS, 2nd, Catcher), but have players that could mimic the production of big names at 3rd, 1st and the outfield. Kinsler, considered to be the number two second baseman in baseball behind Chase Utley is coming off a career year and seems hungry for more. Kinsler has the ability to hit 20 home runs, score a 100 runs, steal 25-30 bases and gather 70-75 rbis. At second base, those are dream numbers.
24. C.C Sabathia, NYY (11-2, 1.65 ERA, 128 K, 1.00 WHIP w/MIL)
Honorable Mention: Brandon Webb, ARI
Simply put, C.C is a tank. He eats up innings almost as much as he eats donuts. He threw a staggering seven complete games in his final 17 starts. Even though he is now entering back into the traditionally stronger American League, the Bronx Bombers have enough fire power in their lineup to give him leads to work with. He could easily eclipse the 20 win mark and throw over 220 K’s. This pick adds an ace to your staff and solidifies your win totals.
37. Jonathan Papelbon, BOS (5-4, 2.34 ERA, 77 K, 41 Saves)
Honorable Mention: Justin Morneau, MIN
In a typical head-to-head league, saves always comes out to be an important stat. Papelbon has put together three straight seasons of 35+ saves and has the chance to save another 40 this year. Boston has made some improvements to their rotation and lineup so he will get plenty of opportunities to close out games.
44. Cole Hamels, PHI (14-10, 3.09 ERA, 196 K, 1.08 WHIP)
Honorable Mention: Nick Markakis, BAL
Hamels just barely missed hitting the 200 strike out plateau ( he finished with 196) and compiled 14 wins to lead the Phillies to the World Series. The guy is just 25 and is entering the prime of his career. If everything clicks he could be another 20 game winner with 200 k’s added to your rotation that already includes C.C.
Hopefully now, with this core of five players, it gives you a great head start to ending the season in the winners circle.
-Bobby Holt
Auction Strategy – Retort!
March 10, 2009
In response to my colleague Evan’s most recent post on auction strategies, I agree that most of them are sound. I agree that you should pay less overall for pitching than hitting, and that your team should be well-rounded. But I strongly disagree with the first rule – that you shouldn’t spend big on one player. Now, my auction experience is with an AL-only league, where there are (obviously) far fewer players from which to choose, meaning the auction values are much higher. Last year, an owner bid $55 for A-Rod (the same one who has to have his BoliBoy every year), and I grabbed Miggy Cabrera for $55 as well. Because those two players had the best stats in the league, we finished 1-2 (and if I hadn’t dropped Cliff Lee in the season’s first week, I would’ve beaten him, but I digress…), and the 3rd place team had Josh Hamilton, for whom he paid $36.
I mention this because I believe very strongly in two things when it comes to auctions – 1) you must walk out of there with one of the 3 or 4 best players in the league, cost be damned; and 2) your key players must have at least one category in which they perform exceptionally well. Meaning that if you leave the auction and your highest priced player is Carlos Guillen and you don’t have any single excellent power or steals source, you’re going to spend the entire season playing catch-up. Trust me, I know.
I’d love to hear your comments and thoughts…so lets go!
Did You Know…?
Did you know that Cole Hamels threw a career-high 2621/3 innings (including the post-season) last year?
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